Bayesian Analysis for a Theory of Random Consumer Demand: The Case of Indivisible Goods

McCausland (2004a) describes a new theory of random consumer demand. Theoretically consistent random demand can be represented by a \"regular\" \"L-utility\" function on the consumption set X. The present paper is about Bayesian inference for regular L-utility functions. We express prior and posterior uncertainty in terms of distributions over the indefinite-dimensional parameter set of a flexible functional form. We propose a class of proper priors on the parameter set. The priors are flexible, in the sense that they put positive probability in the neighborhood of any L-utility function that is regular on a large subset bar(X) of X; and regular, in the sense that they assign zero probability to the set of L-utility functions that are irregular on bar(X). We propose methods of Bayesian inference for an environment with indivisible goods, leaving the more difficult case of indefinitely divisible goods for another paper. We analyse individual choice data from a consumer experiment described in Harbaugh et al. (2001).

Does online information drive offline revenues? Only for specific products and consumer segments!

While many offline retailers have developed informational websites that offer information on products and prices, the key question for such informational websites is whether they can increase revenues via web-to-store shopping. The current paper draws on the information search literature to specify and test hypotheses regarding the offline revenue impact of adding an informational website. Explicitly considering marketing efforts, a latent class model distinguishes consumer segments with different short-term revenue effects, while a Vector Autoregressive model on these segments reveals different long-term marketing response. We find that the offline revenue impact of the informational website critically depends on the product category and customer segment. The lower online search costs are especially beneficial for sensory products and for customers distant from the store. Moreover, offline revenues increase most for customers with high web visit frequency. We find that customers in some segments buy more and more expensive products, suggesting that online search and offline purchases are complements. In contrast, customers in a particular segment reduce their shopping trips, suggesting their online activities partially substitute for experiential shopping in the physical store. Hence, offline retailers should use specific online activities to target specific product categories and customer segments.

Widening participation in higher education: the role of professional and social class identities and commitments

Since the neoliberal reforms to British education in the 1980s, education debates have been saturated with claims to the efficacy of the market as a mechanism for improving the content and delivery of state education. In recent decades with the expansion and ‘massification’ of higher education, widening participation (WP) has acquired an increasingly important role in redressing the under-representation of certain social groups in universities. Taken together, these trends neatly capture the twin goals of New Labour’s programme for education reform: economic competitiveness and social justice. But how do WP professionals negotiate competing demands of social equity and economic incentive? In this paper we explore how the hegemony of neoliberal discourse – of which the student as consumer is possibly the most pervasive – can be usefully disentangled from socially progressive, professional discourses exemplified through the speech and actions of WP practitioners and managers working in British higher education institutions.

Micro-Foundations of Financialization. Status Anxiety and the Market for Consumer Credit in Chile

This project investigates why people in Chile acquired so much consumer debt in contexts of material prosperity, and asks what the role of inequality and commodification is in this process. The case raises an important challenge to the literature. Insofar as existing accounts assume that the financialization of consumption occurs in contexts marked by wage stagnation and a general deterioration of the middle classes, they engender two contradictory explanations: while political economists argue that people use credit in order to smooth their consumption in the face of market volatility, economists maintain that concentration of wealth at the top pushes middle income consumers to emulate the expenditures of the rich and consume beyond their means. These explanations do not necessarily fit the reality of developing countries. Triangulating in-depth interviews with middle class families, multivariate statistical analysis and secondary literature, the project shows that consumers in Chile use credit to finance “ordinary” forms of consumption that do not aim either at coping with market instability or emulating and signaling status to others. Rather, Chileans use department store credit cards in order to acquire a standard package of “inconspicuous” goods that they feel entitled to have. From this point of view, the systematic indebtedness of consumers originates in a major concern with “rank”, “achievement” and "security" that – following De Botton -- I call “status anxiety”. Status anxiety does not stem from the desire to emulate rich consumers, but from the impossibility of complying with normative expectations about what a middle class family should be (and have) that outweigh wage improvements. The project thus investigates the way in which “status anxiety” is systematically reproduced by means of two broad mechanisms that prompt people to acquire consumer debt. The first mechanism generating debt stems from an increase of real wages and high levels of inequality. It is explained by a general sociological principle known as relative deprivation, which points to the fact that general satisfaction with one´s income, possessions or status, is assessed not in absolute terms such as total income, but in relation with reference groups. In this sense, I explore the mechanisms that operate as catalyzers of relative deprivation, by making explicit social inequalities and distorting the perception of others´ wealth. Despite upward mobility and economic improvement, Chileans share the perception of “falling behind,” which materializes in an “imaginary middle class” against which people compare their status, possessions and economic independence. Finally, I show that the commodification of education, health and pension funds does not directly prompt people to acquire consumer debt, but operate as “income draining” mechanisms that demand higher shares of middle class families’ “discretionary income.” In combination with “relative deprivation,” these “income draining” mechanisms leave families with few options to perform their desired class identities, other than learning how to bring resources from the future into the present with the help of department store credit cards.

Mercadeo farmacéutico de productos bajo prescripción: efectos de las estrategias Direct-to-Consumer-Advertising en el comportamiento de los consumidores y de prescripción de los médicos

Este proyecto se origina en el interés de analizar las estrategias actuales de promoción de productos farmacéuticos, en el marco del debate sobre el efecto persuasivo o informativo que la publicidad directa tiene sobre los consumidores. El objetivo es determinar el efecto de las estrategias de promoción directa para consumidores (Direct to Consumer Advertising [DTCA]) sobre el comportamiento de compra de pacientes y las prescripciones que formulan los médicos en el mercado de productos bajo receta en Estados Unidos. Para tal fin se propuso realizar una monografía que incluyera una revisión de literatura de carácter argumentativo, consultando información de nivel secundario en bases de datos científicas cuyos contenidos obedecieran a criterios metodológicos determinados por la naturaleza argumentativa del estudio. Adicionalmente, se analizó el debate sobre estos anuncios a la luz de dos estudios realizados a pacientes con cáncer de seno, próstata y colon, liderados por el Pennsylvania Cancer Registry con los productos biofarmacéuticos Avodart® y Flomax®. Finalmente, la investigación se fundamentó en la relación del mercado farmacéutico en Estados Unidos con cada uno de los agentes que interactúan en él; consumidores, médicos prescriptores y empresas farmacéuticas, así como el valor que estos comparten través de dichas interacciones. Se concluye que el comportamiento de compra de los consumidores está determinado por la naturaleza de la patología que padecen y el comportamiento de los profesionales que prescriben a sus pacientes se ve influenciado por los anuncios DTCA.

On the zeros of the Abelian integrals for a class of Liénard systems

A planar polynomial differential system has a finite number of limit cycles. However, finding the upper bound of the number of limit cycles is an open problem for the general nonlinear dynamical systems. In this paper, we investigated a class of Liénard systems of the form x'=y, y'=f(x)+y g(x) with deg f=5 and deg g=4. We proved that the related elliptic integrals of the Liénard systems have at most three zeros including multiple zeros, which implies that the number of limit cycles bifurcated from the periodic orbits of the unperturbed system is less than or equal to 3.

Consumer appraisals of mobile marketing communications

This paper reports on a study that investigates the emotions elicited from appraising SMS-based mobile marketing (m-marketing) communications under three marketing conditions: product consistency, incentives and permission giving. Results from the experimental design show that appraising m-marketing communications elicits both single emotions and mixed emotions; that is, a mixture of positive and negative emotions in the same response. Additionally, the results show that the influence of specific marketing conditions may increase or reduce the intensity of the emotions elicited. This study contributes to marketing practice by examining consumer appraisals of m-marketing communications under different combinations of marketing conditions. The results provide insights into which emotions are likely to be elicited as a result, and how a specific marketing condition might influence their levels of intensity. The study contributes to marketing theory also through combining appraisal theory with Richins (1997) consumption emotion set.

Tourism Destination Preferences: A Longitudinal Analysis of Consumer Decision Sets

There have only been a small number of applications of consumer decision set theory to holiday destination choice, and these studies have tended to rely on a single cross sectional snapshot of research participants’ stated preferences. Very little has been reported on the relationship between stated destination preferences and actual travel, or changes in decision set composition over time. The paper presents a rare longitudinal examination of destination decision sets, in the context of short break holidays by car in Queensland, Australia. Two questionnaires were administered, three months apart. The first identified destination preferences while the second examined actual travel and revisited destination preferences. In relation to the conference theme, there was very little change in consumer preferences towards the competitive set of destinations over the three month period. A key implication for the destination of interest, which, in an attempt to change market perceptions, launched a new brand campaign during the period of the project, is that a long term investment in a consistent brand message will be required to change market perceptions. The results go some way to support the proposition that the positioning of a destination into a consumer’s decision set represents a source of competitive advantage.

M-technology, Consumption and Gambling: A Conceptualisation of Consumer Vulnerability in an M-gambling Marketplace

Technology imbued m-marketing systems influence the consumptive lives of citizens, by facilitating anytime, anywhere business-to-consumer interactions. Business pundits’ enthusiasm towards mobile services (m-services) has been driven by the promise of a marketspace context involving seamless, business-to-consumer interactions that can be simultaneously impulse-driven, highly entertaining and omnipresent. Arguably, gambling too is impulse-driven, exciting and easily accessible. An important question that needs to be addressed is: how the convergence of mobile technology and gambling will impact the millennial consumer. The authors address this question by examining the contextually bounded interactions between internal and external factors that make mobile phone users potentially vulnerable during m-gambling interactions. By examining key themes that describe the convergence of m-technology and gambling, we clarify the experiential nature of m-gambling and its relationship to consumer vulnerability.