Alkenone stable carbon isotopes, carbonate stable carbon and oxygen isotopes, planktic foraminifera boron isotopes and atmospheric CO2 calculations and box model results from Ras il-Pellegrin section, Malta

The development of a permanent, stable ice sheet in East Antarctica happened during the middle Miocene, about 14 million years (Myr) ago. The middle Miocene therefore represents one of the distinct phases of rapid change in the transition from the "greenhouse" of the early Eocene to the "icehouse" of the present day. Carbonate carbon isotope records of the period immediately following the main stage of ice sheet development reveal a major perturbation in the carbon system, represented by the positive d13C excursion known as carbon maximum 6 ("M6"), which has traditionally been interpreted as reflecting increased burial of organic matter and atmospheric pCO2 drawdown. More recently, it has been suggested that the d13C excursion records a negative feedback resulting from the reduction of silicate weathering and an increase in atmospheric pCO2. Here we present high-resolution multi-proxy (alkenone carbon and foraminiferal boron isotope) records of atmospheric carbon dioxide and sea surface temperature across CM6. Similar to previously published records spanning this interval, our records document a world of generally low (~300 ppm) atmospheric pCO2 at a time generally accepted to be much warmer than today. Crucially, they also reveal a pCO2 decrease with associated cooling, which demonstrates that the carbon burial hypothesis for CM6 is feasible and could have acted as a positive feedback on global cooling.

Joint Compensation of I/Q Impairments and PA Nonlinearity for Concurrent Dual-Band Transmitters using Two-Box Model

A novel two-box model for joint compensation of nonlinear distortion introduced from both in-phase/quadrature modulator and power amplifier is proposed for concurrent dual-band wireless transmitters. Compensation of nonlinear distortion is accomplished in two phases, where phases are identified separately. It is shown that complexity of the digital predistortion is reduced. The performance of the proposed model is evaluated in terms of ACPR, EVM and NMSE improvements using 1.4 MHz LTE and WCDMA signals.

Impact of the Manaus urban plume on trace gas mixing ratios near the surface in the Amazon Basin: Implications for the NO-NO2-O-3 photostationary state and peroxy radical levels

We measured the mixing ratios of NO, NO2, O-3, and volatile organic carbon as well as the aerosol light-scattering coefficient on a boat platform cruising on rivers downwind of the city of Manaus (Amazonas State, Brazil) in July 2001 (Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia-Cooperative LBA Airborne Regional Experiment-2001). The dispersion and impact of the Manaus plume was investigated by a combined analysis of ground-based (boat platform) and airborne trace gas and aerosol measurements as well as by meteorological measurements complemented by dispersion calculations (Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model). For the cases with the least anthropogenic influence (including a location in a so far unexplored region similar to 150 km west of Manaus on the Rio Manacapuru), the aerosol scattering coefficient, sigma(s), was below 11 Mm(-1), NOx mixing ratios remained below 0.6 ppb, daytime O-3 mixing ratios were mostly below 20 ppb and maximal isoprene mixing ratios were about 3 ppb in the afternoon. The photostationary state (PSS) was not established for these cases, as indicated by values of the Leighton ratio, Phi, well above unity. Due to the influence of river breeze systems and other thermally driven mesoscale circulations, a change of the synoptic wind direction from east-northeast to south-southeast in the afternoon often caused a substantial increase of ss and trace gas mixing ratios (about threefold for sigma(s), fivefold for NOx, and twofold for O-3), which was associated with the arrival of the Manaus pollution plume at the boat location. The ratio F reached unity within its uncertainty range at NOx mixing ratios of about 3 ppb, indicating "steady-state" conditions in cases when radiation variations, dry deposition, emissions, and reactions mostly involving peroxy radicals (XO2) played a minor role. The median midday/afternoon XO2 mixing ratios estimated using the PSS method range from 90 to 120 parts per trillion (ppt) for the remote cases (sigma(s) < 11 Mm(-1) and NOx < 0.6 ppb), while for the polluted cases our estimates are 15 to 60 ppt. These values are within the range of XO2 estimated by an atmospheric chemistry box model (Chemistry As A Box model Application-Module Efficiently Calculating the Chemistry of the Atmosphere (CAABA/MECCA)-3.0).

OH- und HO 2-Radikale über dem tropischen Regenwald

Beständig werden Spurenstoffe in die Atmosphäre emittiert, die ihren Ursprung in biogenen oder anthropogenen Quellen haben. Daß es dennoch im allgemeinen nicht zu einer Anreicherung bis hin zu toxischen Konzentrationen kommt, liegt an dem Vermögen der Atmosphäre sich durch Oxidationsprozesse selbst zu reinigen. Eine wichtige Aufgabe kommt dabei dem Hydroxylradikal OH zu, welches tagsüber die Oxidationskapazität der Atmosphäre bestimmt. Hierbei spielen die tropischen Regionen mit einer der höchsten OH-Produktionsraten eine zentrale Rolle. Gleichzeitig sind die tropischen Regenwälder eine bedeutende globale Quelle für Kohlenwasserstoffe, die durch Reaktion mit OH-Radikalen dessen Konzentration und damit die Oxidationskapazität der Atmosphäre herabsetzen. Während der GABRIEL-Meßkampagne 2005 im äquatorialen Südamerika wurde der Einfluß der Regenwaldemissionen auf das HOx-Budget (HOx = OH+HO2) untersucht. Zu diesem Zweck wurde das Radikalmeßinstrument HORUS entwickelt. Im Rahmen dieser Arbeit wurden unterschiedliche Komponenten des Gerätes optimiert, der Meßaufbau ins Flugzeug integriert und Methoden zur Kalibrierung entwickelt. Bei der internationalen Vergleichskampagne HOxComp2005 zeigte HORUS seine Eignung zur Messung von troposphärischen OH- und HO2-Radikalen.rnrnDie durchgeführten HOx-Messungen während der GABRIEL-Meßkampagne sind die ersten ihrer Art, die über einem tropischen Regenwald stattgefunden haben. Im Gegensatz zu den Vorhersagen globaler Modelle wurden unerwartet hohe OH- und HO2-Konzentrationen in der planetaren Grenzschicht des tropischen Regenwalds beobachtet. Der Vergleich der berechneten OH-Produktions- und Verlustraten, die aus dem umfangreichen Datensatz von GABRIEL ermittelt wurden, zeigte, daß hierbei eine wichtige OH-Quelle unberücksichtigt blieb. Mit Hilfe des Boxmodells MECCA, in welchem die gemessenen Daten als Randbedingungen in die Simulationen eingingen, wurden die modellierten OH- und HO2- Konzentrationen im Gleichgewichtszustand den beobachteten Konzentrationen gegenübergestellt. Luftmassen der freien Troposphäre und der maritimen Grenzschicht zeigten eine gute Übereinstimmung zwischen Messung und Modell. Über dem tropischen Regenwald jedoch wurden die beobachteten HOx-Konzentrationen in der planetaren Grenzschicht durch das Modell, vor allem am Nachmittag, signifikant unterschätzt. Dabei lag die Diskrepanz zwischen den beobachteten und simulierten Konzentrationen bei einem mittleren Wert von OHobs/OHmod = 12.2 ± 3.5 und HO2obs/HO2mod = 4.1 ± 1.4. Die Abweichung zwischen Messung und Modell korrelieren hierbei mit der Isoprenkonzentration. Während für niedrige Isoprenmischungsverhältnisse, wie sie über dem Ozean oder in Höhen > 3 km vorherrschten, die Beobachtungen mit den Simulationen innerhalb eines Faktors 1.6±0.7 übereinstimmten, nahm die Unterschätzung durch das Modell für steigende Isoprenmischungsverhältnisse > 200 pptV über dem tropischen Regenwald zu.rnrnDer kondensierte chemische Mechanismus von MECCA wurde mit der ausführlichen Isoprenchemie des ”Master Chemical Mechanism“ überprüft, welches vergleichbare HOx-Konzentrationen lieferte. OH-Simulationen, durchgeführt mit der gemessenen HO2-Konzentration als zusätzliche Randbedingung, zeigten, daß die Konversion zwischen HO2 und OH innerhalb des Modells nicht ausreichend ist. Durch Vernachlässigung der gesamten Isoprenchemie konnte dagegen eine Übereinstimmung zwischen Modell und Messung erreicht werden. Eine OH-Quelle in der gleichen Größenordnung wie die OH-Senke durch Isopren, ist somit zur Beschreibung der beobachteten OH-Konzentration notwendig. Reaktionsmechanismen, die innerhalb der Isoprenchemie die gleiche Anzahl an OH-Radikalen erzeugen wie sie verbrauchen, könnten eine mögliche Ursache sein. Unterschiedliche zusätzliche Reaktionen wurden in die Isoprenabbaumechanismen des Modells implementiert, die zur Erhöhung der OH-Quellstärke führen sollten. Diese bewirkten eine Zunahme der simulierten HO2-Konzentrationen um einen maximalen Faktor von 5 für OH und 2 für HO2. Es wird eine OH-Zyklierungswahrscheinlichkeit r von bis zu 94% gefordert, wie sie für die GABRIEL-Messungen erreicht wurde. Die geringe OH-Zyklierungswahrscheinlichkeit von 38% des Modells zeigte, daß wichtige Zyklierungsvorgänge im chemischen Mechanismus bislang nicht berücksichtigt werden. Zusätzliche Zyklierungsreaktionen innerhalb des Isoprenmechanismus, die auch unter niedrigen NO-Konzentrationen zur Rückbildung von OHRadikalen führen, könnten eine Erklärung für die über dem Regenwald beobachteten hohen OH-Konzentration liefern.rn

Improvements to the accuracy of measurements of NO2 by zenith-sky visible spectrometers II: errors in zero using a more complete chemical model

Using a flexible chemical box model with full heterogeneous chemistry, intercepts of chemically modified Langley plots have been computed for the 5 years of zenith-sky NO2 data from Faraday in Antarctica (65°S). By using these intercepts as the effective amount in the reference spectrum, drifts in zero of total vertical NO2 were much reduced. The error in zero of total NO2 is ±0.03×1015 moleccm−2 from one year to another. This error is small enough to determine trends in midsummer and any variability in denoxification between midwinters. The technique also suggests a more sensitive method for determining N2O5 from zenith-sky NO2 data.

Modeling the gas and aqueous phase chemistry of the marine boundary layer

Ein eindimensionales numerisches Modell der maritimenGrenzschicht (MBL) wurde erweitert, um chemische Reaktionenin der Gasphase, von Aerosolpartikeln und Wolkentropfen zu beschreiben. Ein Schwerpunkt war dabei die Betrachtung derReaktionszyklen von Halogenen. Soweit Ergebnisse vonMesskampagnen zur Verfuegung standen, wurden diese zurValidierung des Modells benutzt. Die Ergebnisse von frueheren Boxmodellstudien konntenbestaetigt werden. Diese zeigten die saeurekatalysierteAktivierung von Brom aus Seesalzaerosolen, die Bedeutung vonHalogenradikalen fuer die Zerstoerung von O3, diepotentielle Rolle von BrO bei der Oxidation von DMS und dievon HOBr und HOCl in der Oxidation von S(IV). Es wurde gezeigt, dass die Beruecksichtigung derVertikalprofile von meteorologischen und chemischen Groessenvon grosser Bedeutung ist. Dies spiegelt sich darin wider,dass Maxima des Saeuregehaltes von Seesalzaerosolen und vonreaktiven Halogenen am Oberrand der MBL gefunden wurden.Darueber hinaus wurde die Bedeutung von Sulfataerosolen beidem aktiven Recyceln von weniger aktiven zu photolysierbarenBromspezies gezeigt. Wolken haben grosse Auswirkungen auf die Evolution und denTagesgang der Halogene. Dies ist nicht auf Wolkenschichtenbeschraenkt. Der Tagesgang der meisten Halogene ist aufgrundeiner erhoehten Aufnahme der chemischen Substanzen in die Fluessigphase veraendert. Diese Ergebnisse betonen dieWichtigkeit der genauen Dokumentation der meteorologischenBedingungen bei Messkampagnen (besonders Wolkenbedeckungsgrad und Fluessigwassergehalt), um dieErgebnisse richtig interpretieren und mit Modellresultatenvergleichen zu koennen. Dieses eindimensionale Modell wurde zusammen mit einemBoxmodell der MBL verwendet, um die Auswirkungen vonSchiffemissionen auf die MBL abzuschaetzen, wobei dieVerduennung der Abgasfahne parameterisiert wurde. DieAuswirkungen der Emissionen sind am staerksten, wenn sie insauberen Gebieten stattfinden, die Hoehe der MBL gering istund das Einmischen von Hintergrundluft schwach ist.Chemische Reaktionen auf Hintergrundaerosolen spielen nureine geringe Rolle. In Ozeangebieten mit schwachemSchiffsverkehr sind die Auswirkungen auf die Chemie der MBL beschraenkt. In staerker befahrenen Gebieten ueberlappensich die Abgasfahnen mehrerer Schiffe und sorgen fuerdeutliche Auswirkungen. Diese Abschaetzung wurde mitSimulationen verglichen, bei denen die Emissionen alskontinuierliche Quellen behandelt wurden, wie das inglobalen Chemiemodellen der Fall ist. Wenn die Entwicklungder Abgasfahne beruecksichtigt wird, sind die Auswirkungendeutlich geringer da die Lebenszeit der Abgase in der erstenPhase nach Emission deutlich reduziert ist.

AN EXAMINATION OF HYDROXYL RADICAL: OUR CURRENT UNDERSTANDING OF THE OXIDATIVE CAPACITY OF THE TROPOSPHERE THROUGH EMPIRICAL, BOX, AND GLOBAL MODELING APPROACHES

Hydroxyl radical (OH) is the primary oxidant in the troposphere, initiating the removal of numerous atmospheric species including greenhouse gases, pollutants that are detrimental to human health, and ozone-depleting substances. Because of the complexity of OH chemistry, models vary widely in their OH chemistry schemes and resulting methane (CH4) lifetimes. The current state of knowledge concerning global OH abundances is often contradictory. This body of work encompasses three projects that investigate tropospheric OH from a modeling perspective, with the goal of improving the tropospheric community’s knowledge of the atmospheric lifetime of CH4. First, measurements taken during the airborne CONvective TRansport of Active Species in the Tropics (CONTRAST) field campaign are used to evaluate OH in global models. A box model constrained to measured variables is utilized to infer concentrations of OH along the flight track. Results are used to evaluate global model performance, suggest against the existence of a proposed “OH Hole” in the tropical Western Pacific, and investigate implications of high O3/low H2O filaments on chemical transport to the stratosphere. While methyl chloroform-based estimates of global mean OH suggest that models are overestimating OH, we report evidence that these models are actually underestimating OH in the tropical Western Pacific. The second project examines OH within global models to diagnose differences in CH4 lifetime. I developed an approach to quantify the roles of OH precursor field differences (O3, H2O, CO, NOx, etc.) using a neural network method. This technique enables us to approximate the change in CH4 lifetime resulting from variations in individual precursor fields. The dominant factors driving CH4 lifetime differences between models are O3, CO, and J(O3-O1D). My third project evaluates the effect of climate change on global fields of OH using an empirical model. Observations of H2O and O3 from satellite instruments are combined with a simulation of tropical expansion to derive changes in global mean OH over the past 25 years. We find that increasing H2O and increasing width of the tropics tend to increase global mean OH, countering the increasing CH4 sink and resulting in well-buffered global tropospheric OH concentrations.

A modified discrete random pore model allowing for different initial surface reactivity

We investigate here a modification of the discrete random pore model [Bhatia SK, Vartak BJ, Carbon 1996;34:1383], by including an additional rate constant which takes into account the different reactivity of the initial pore surface having attached functional groups and hydrogens, relative to the subsequently exposed surface. It is observed that the relative initial reactivity has a significant effect on the conversion and structural evolution, underscoring the importance of initial surface chemistry. The model is tested against experimental data on chemically controlled char oxidation and steam gasification at various temperatures. It is seen that the variations of the reaction rate and surface area with conversion are better represented by the present approach than earlier random pore models. The results clearly indicate the improvement of model predictions in the low conversion region, where the effect of the initially attached functional groups and hydrogens is more significant, particularly for char oxidation. It is also seen that, for the data examined, the initial surface chemistry is less important for steam gasification as compared to the oxidation reaction. Further development of the approach must also incorporate the dynamics of surface complexation, which is not considered here.

Extremal climatic states simulated by a 2-dimensional model Part I: Sensitivity of the model and present state

The criterion, based on the thermodynamics theory, that the climatic system tends to extremizesome function has suggested several studies. In particular, special attention has been devoted to the possibility that the climate reaches an extremal rate of planetary entropy production.Due to both radiative and material effects contribute to total planetary entropy production,climatic simulations obtained at the extremal rates of total, radiative or material entropy production appear to be of interest in order to elucidate which of the three extremal assumptions behaves more similar to current data. In the present paper, these results have been obtainedby applying a 2-dimensional (2-Dim) horizontal energy balance box-model, with a few independent variables (surface temperature, cloud-cover and material heat fluxes). In addition, climatic simulations for current conditions by assuming a fixed cloud-cover have been obtained. Finally,sensitivity analyses for both variable and fixed cloud models have been carried out

The water quality of the LOCAR Pang and Lambourn catchments

The water quality of the Pang and Lambourn, tributaries of the River Thames, in south-eastern England, is described in relation to spatial and temporal dimensions. The river waters are supplied mainly from Chalk-fed aquifer sources and are, therefore, of a calcium-bicarbonate type. The major, minor and trace element chemistry of the rivers is controlled by a combination of atmospheric and pollutant inputs from agriculture and sewage sources superimposed on a background water quality signal linked to geological sources. Water quality does not vary greatly over time or space. However. in detail, there are differences in water quality between the Pang and Lambourn and between sites along the Pang and the Lambourn. These differences reflect hydrological processes, water flow pathways and water quality input fluxes. The Pangs pattern of water quality change is more variable than that of the Lambourn. The flow hydrograph also shows both a cyclical and 'uniform pattern' characteristic of aquifer drainage with, superimposed, a series of 'flashier' spiked responses characteristic of karstic systems. The Lambourn, in contrast, shows simpler features without the 'flashier' responses, The results are discussed in relation to the newly developed UK community programme LOCAR dealing with Lowland Catchment Research. A descriptive and box model structure is provided to describe the key features of water quality variations in relation to soil, unsaturated and groundwater flows and storage both away from and close to the river.

HOx observations over West Africa during AMMA: impact of isoprene and NOx

Aircraft OH and HO2 measurements made over West Africa during the AMMA field campaign in summer 2006 have been investigated using a box model constrained to observations of long-lived species and physical parameters. "Good" agreement was found for HO2 (modelled to observed gradient of 1.23 ± 0.11). However, the model significantly overpredicts OH concentrations. The reasons for this are not clear, but may reflect instrumental instabilities affecting the OH measurements. Within the model, HOx concentrations in West Africa are controlled by relatively simple photochemistry, with production dominated by ozone photolysis and reaction of O(1D) with water vapour, and loss processes dominated by HO2 + HO2 and HO2 + RO2. Isoprene chemistry was found to influence forested regions. In contrast to several recent field studies in very low NOx and high isoprene environments, we do not observe any dependence of model success for HO2 on isoprene and attribute this to efficient recycling of HOx through RO2 + NO reactions under the moderate NOx concentrations (5–300 ppt NO in the boundary layer, median 76 ppt) encountered during AMMA. This suggests that some of the problems with understanding the impact of isoprene on atmospheric composition may be limited to the extreme low range of NOx concentrations.

Quantifying the response of the ORAC aerosol optical depth retrieval for MSG SEVIRI to aerosol model assumptions

We test the response of the Oxford-RAL Aerosol and Cloud (ORAC) retrieval algorithm for MSG SEVIRI to changes in the aerosol properties used in the dust aerosol model, using data from the Dust Outflow and Deposition to the Ocean (DODO) flight campaign in August 2006. We find that using the observed DODO free tropospheric aerosol size distribution and refractive index increases simulated top of the atmosphere radiance at 0.55 µm assuming a fixed erosol optical depth of 0.5 by 10–15 %, reaching a maximum difference at low solar zenith angles. We test the sensitivity of the retrieval to the vertical distribution f the aerosol and find that this is unimportant in determining simulated radiance at 0.55 µm. We also test the ability of the ORAC retrieval when used to produce the GlobAerosol dataset to correctly identify continental aerosol outflow from the African continent and we find that it poorly constrains aerosol speciation. We develop spatially and temporally resolved prior distributions of aerosols to inform the retrieval which incorporates five aerosol models: desert dust, maritime, biomass burning, urban and continental. We use a Saharan Dust Index and the GEOS-Chem chemistry transport model to describe dust and biomass burning aerosol outflow, and compare AOD using our speciation against the GlobAerosol retrieval during January and July 2006. We find AOD discrepancies of 0.2–1 over regions of intense biomass burning outflow, where AOD from our aerosol speciation and GlobAerosol speciation can differ by as much as 50 - 70 %.

Review of the formulation of present‐generation stratospheric chemistry‐climate models and associated external forcings

The goal of the Chemistry‐Climate Model Validation (CCMVal) activity is to improve understanding of chemistry‐climate models (CCMs) through process‐oriented evaluation and to provide reliable projections of stratospheric ozone and its impact on climate. An appreciation of the details of model formulations is essential for understanding how models respond to the changing external forcings of greenhouse gases and ozonedepleting substances, and hence for understanding the ozone and climate forecasts produced by the models participating in this activity. Here we introduce and review the models used for the second round (CCMVal‐2) of this intercomparison, regarding the implementation of chemical, transport, radiative, and dynamical processes in these models. In particular, we review the advantages and problems associated with approaches used to model processes of relevance to stratospheric dynamics and chemistry. Furthermore, we state the definitions of the reference simulations performed, and describe the forcing data used in these simulations. We identify some developments in chemistry‐climate modeling that make models more physically based or more comprehensive, including the introduction of an interactive ocean, online photolysis, troposphere‐stratosphere chemistry, and non‐orographic gravity‐wave deposition as linked to tropospheric convection. The relatively new developments indicate that stratospheric CCM modeling is becoming more consistent with our physically based understanding of the atmosphere.

Past and future conditions for polar stratospheric cloud formation simulated by the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model

We analyze here the polar stratospheric temperatures in an ensemble of three 150-year integrations of the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM), an interactive chemistry-climate model which simulates ozone depletion and recovery, as well as climate change. A key motivation is to understand possible mechanisms for the observed trend in the extent of conditions favourable for polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) formation in the Arctic winter lower stratosphere. We find that in the Antarctic winter lower stratosphere, the low temperature extremes required for PSC formation increase in the model as ozone is depleted, but remain steady through the twenty-first century as the warming from ozone recovery roughly balances the cooling from climate change. Thus, ozone depletion itself plays a major role in the Antarctic trends in low temperature extremes. The model trend in low temperature extremes in the Arctic through the latter half of the twentieth century is weaker and less statistically robust than the observed trend. It is not projected to continue into the future. Ozone depletion in the Arctic is weaker in the CMAM than in observations, which may account for the weak past trend in low temperature extremes. In the future, radiative cooling in the Arctic winter due to climate change is more than compensated by an increase in dynamically driven downwelling over the pole.

Persistence and photochemical decay of springtime total ozone anomalies in the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model

The persistence and decay of springtime total ozone anomalies over the entire extratropics (midlatitudes plus polar regions) is analysed using results from the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM), a comprehensive chemistry-climate model. As in the observations, interannual anomalies established through winter and spring persist with very high correlation coefficients (above 0.8) through summer until early autumn, while decaying in amplitude as a result of photochemical relaxation in the quiescent summertime stratosphere. The persistence and decay of the ozone anomalies in CMAM agrees extremely well with observations, even in the southern hemisphere when the model is run without heterogeneous chemistry (in which case there is no ozone hole and the seasonal cycle of ozone is quite different from observations). However in a version of CMAM with strong vertical diffusion, the northern hemisphere anomalies decay far too rapidly compared to observations. This shows that ozone anomaly persistence and decay does not depend on how the springtime anomalies are created or on their magnitude, but reflects the transport and photochemical decay in the model. The seasonality of the long-term trends over the entire extratropics is found to be explained by the persistence of the interannual anomalies, as in the observations, demonstrating that summertime ozone trends reflect winter/spring trends rather than any change in summertime ozone chemistry. However this mechanism fails in the northern hemisphere midlatitudes because of the relatively large impact, compared to observations, of the CMAM polar anomalies. As in the southern hemisphere, the influence of polar ozone loss in CMAM increases the midlatitude summertime loss, leading to a relatively weak seasonal dependence of ozone loss in the Northern Hemisphere compared to the observations.