The Challenges of the EU Banking Union - will it succeed in dealing with the next financial crisis? Bruges European Economic Policy Briefings 36/2015

The EU Banking Union combines micro- and macro-prudential regulation. It aims at breaking the “doom loop” between banks and sovereign debt, promoting financial stability and mitigating the next financial shock to the real EU economy, at the lowest possible cost to the financial institutions and to the taxpayers. Success, or failure, is determined by how the banking union copes with the challenges to its two main pillars, the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM) and the Single Resolution Mechanism (SRM). Under the SSM, in its new supervisory role, the ECB may be subject to conflicts between the objectives of price and financial stability, and the single-supervisor role may be sub-optimal. Two regulators might have been preferable and more focus on ECB accountability will now be required. The shock-absorbing Single Resolution Fund (SRF), which is part of the SRM, may not have the capacity to deal with a crisis of the size of the one of 2008. Especially as the nature and severity of a future financial crisis cannot be forecasted. The design of the banking union is not the result of theoretical studies, but a political compromise to deal with an acute crisis. The theoretical studies that are included in this paper are not supportive of the banking union in its current form. Nevertheless, there is a good chance that the EU Banking Union may succeed, as ECB supervision of the 123 systemically important banks should contain potential demands on the SRM. In the event of a crisis that is too severe for the banking union to absorb with its current capability, the crucial assumption is that there is political will to rapidly provide new resources. The same applies, if a major financial crisis develops before the banking union is fully operational.

The Challenges of the EU Banking Union - will it succeed in dealing with the next financial crisis? Bruges European Economic Policy (BEEP) Briefings 36/2015

The EU Banking Union combines micro- and macro-prudential regulation. It aims at breaking the “doom loop” between banks and sovereign debt, promoting financial stability and mitigating the next financial shock to the real EU economy, at the lowest possible cost to the financial institutions and to the taxpayers. Success, or failure, is determined by how the banking union copes with the challenges to its two main pillars, the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM) and the Single Resolution Mechanism (SRM). Under the SSM, in its new supervisory role, the ECB may be subject to conflicts between the objectives of price and financial stability, and the single-supervisor role may be sub-optimal. Two regulators might have been preferable and more focus on ECB accountability will now be required. The shock-absorbing Single Resolution Fund (SRF), which is part of the SRM, may not have the capacity to deal with a crisis of the size of the one of 2008. Especially as the nature and severity of a future financial crisis cannot be forecasted. The design of the banking union is not the result of theoretical studies, but a political compromise to deal with an acute crisis. The theoretical studies that are included in this paper are not supportive of the banking union in its current form. Nevertheless, there is a good chance that the EU Banking Union may succeed, as ECB supervision of the 123 systemically important banks should contain potential demands on the SRM. In the event of a crisis that is too severe for the banking union to absorb with its current capability, the crucial assumption is that there is political will to rapidly provide new resources. The same applies, if a major financial crisis develops before the banking union is fully operational.

EU democratization policies in the Neighbourhood countries and Russia’s reaction as a destabilizing factor. A comparative case study of Georgia and Moldova. Bruges Political Research Papers 45/2015.

The EU democratization policies have not achieved the expected results in Eastern Partnership (EaP) countries. On the contrary, they have led to the outbreak of the most important crisis in Europe after the end of the cold war. A new vision of cooperation in the field of democracy is necessary in the East, as long as even Georgia and Moldova, countries considered to be the most advanced among the EaP states, have not registered essential progress in the democratization of their societies. Assuming that democratization, as part of EU’s neighbourhood policies, can be considered a threat to Russia and hence a ‘destabilizing factor’ for the EU partners, this thesis tried to understand what changes can be made to EU policies and to what extent cooperation between EU and Russia is possible in the process developing democratization policies in Georgia and Moldova. While arguing for the revitalization of the instruments used for the implementation of the democratization policies, this thesis finds that cooperation between the EU and Russia in the field of democracy is excluded as long as the two geo-political actors have different values and different views on the notion of democracy. The most likely cooperation that might occur between EU and Russia is the establishment of a Common Economic Space ‘from Lisbon to Vladivostok’. Even though such a scenario would have the potential to reduce confrontation between the two actors in the common neighbourhood, this cooperation would, however, have a negative impact on the on-going democratic reforms in Georgia and Moldova.

An EU mechanism on Democracy, the Rule of Law and Fundamental Rights. CEPS Paper in Liberty and Security in Europe No. 91/April 2016 Thursday, 21 April 2016

The European Union is founded on a set of common principles of democracy, the rule of law, and fundamental rights, as enshrined in Article 2 of the Treaty on the European Union. Whereas future Member States are vetted for their compliance with these values before they accede to the Union, no similar method exists to supervise adherence to these foundational principles after accession. EU history proved that this ‘Copenhagen dilemma’ was far from theoretical. EU Member State governments’ adherence to foundational EU values cannot be taken for granted. Violations may happen in individual cases, or in a systemic way, which may go as far as overthrowing the rule of law. Against this background the European Parliament initiated a Legislative Own-Initiative Report on the establishment of an EU mechanism on democracy, the rule of law and fundamental rights and proposed among others a Scoreboard on the basis of common and objective indicators by which foundational values can be measured. This Research Paper assesses the need and possibilities for the establishment of an EU Scoreboard, as well as its related social, economic, legal and political ‘costs and benefits’.

Válság és hitelderivatívák. A szintetikus fedezett adósságkötelezettségek (CDO-k) árazása és kockázataik (Crisis and loan derivatives. The pricing and risks of synthetic collateralized debt obligations)

A dolgozat első részében röviden áttekintjük a 2007-ben kezdődött pénzügyi válság lefolyását és a válsághoz vezető okokat. A bemutatás során igyekszünk végig a mögöttes folyamatokra és azok mozgatórugóira koncentrálni, ezzel megragadva a válság egyfajta "elméletét". A bemutatásból láthatóvá válik a hitelderivatívák kiemelt szerepe a válság során. A dolgozat második részében az egyik legnépszerűbb hitelderivatív termék, a szintetikus fedezett adósságkötelezettségek (CDO-k) matematikai modellezését és annak problémáit mutatjuk be. Sokak szerint ezek a matematikai modellek okozták - vagy legalábbis felerősítették - a válságot. Az elemzés során megmutatjuk, hogy nemcsak a modellezési eszközök nem voltak megfelelők, hanem az árazás elve sem állta meg a helyét a kockázatsemleges árazási keretben. Ez az eredmény élesen rámutat a mögöttes elméletek válságára. / === / The first part of the paper examines briefly the financial crisis of 2007 and its causes, focusing on its driving processes and key motifs. This shows clearly the importance and centrality of credit derivatives in the crisis. The second part presents a mathematical modelling of one of the most popular credit derivative products: synthetic collateralized debt obligations, along with the drawbacks and problems of the modelling process. It is widely claimed that these products caused or at least precipitated the crises. The authors show not only that the modelling tools were inappropriate, but that the principle for pricing did not match adequately the risk-neutral valuation framework.

Worker remittances and the global preconditions of ‘smart development’

With the growing environmental crisis affecting our globe, ideas to weigh economic or social progress by the ‘energy input’ necessary to achieve it are increasingly gaining acceptance. This question is intriguing and is being dealt with by a growing number of studies, focusing on the environmental price of human progress. Even more intriguing, however, is the question of which factors of social organization contribute to a responsible use of the resources of our planet to achieve a given social result (‘smart development’). In this essay, we present the first systematic study on how migration – or rather, more concretely, received worker remittances per GDP – helps the nations of our globe to enjoy social and economic progress at a relatively small environmental price. We look at the effects of migration on the balance sheets of societal accounting, based on the ‘ecological price’ of the combined performance of democracy, economic growth, gender equality, human development, research and development, and social cohesion. Feminism in power, economic freedom, population density, the UNDP education index as well as the receipt of worker remittances all significantly contribute towards a ‘smart overall development’, while high military expenditures and a high world economic openness are a bottleneck for ‘smart overall development’.

Válságkezelés Európában: új gazdaságfilozófia felé? (Towards a New Philosophy of Crisis Management in Europe?)

Az évek óta tartó európai válságkezelés leírása és a részletek bemutatása helyett a rögtönzött, politikai alapon hozott lépések gazdaságelméleti értelmezésére törekszünk. Kutatási alapkérdésünk a következő: igaz-e még a 70-es évek végének felismerése, ami szerint sem szerkezeti, sem szabályozási eredetű válságot nem lehet keresletélénkítéssel leküzdeni? Igaz-e, hogy a szuverén EU-tagállamokon belül bármi okból hiányzó belső elköteleződést nem lehet pótolni a külső fegyelmezéssel? Ennek fényében vizsgáljuk a költségvetési és a bankunió 2012 októberében körvonalazott és jóváhagyott tervezetét is. _____ This paper attempts to provide a theoretical interpretation of new policy initiatives in the EU culminating in the launching of a fiscal and banking union in June, 2012. This step is reinforced by the new ECB strategy launched in September 2012. These measures were a result of a series of policy improvisations rather than of any secret master plan, still they add up to a new model of European integration. Our research question is if, and to what degrees the insights from the crisis of the 1970s hold. Accordingly no amount of easy money may remedy ills deriving from regulatory and structural inefficiencies. Second, we contend that no amount of external straightjacket/disciplining may replace domestic commitment of national governments in implementing structural reforms rather than fiscal adjustments on the margin.

José Aricó y la "crisis de civilización" : La búsqueda de una imbricación democrático-socialista para un desarrollo de la "dilatación de la subjetividad" (1979-1986)

Moviéndonos entre la sociología política y la historia intelectual, abordaremos en este trabajo aspectos de la obra del "gramsciano argentino" José María Aricó (1931-1991). Con una reconocida actividad político-intelectual desarrollada en su país durante tres décadas, el golpe militar de 1976 obliga a Aricó a marchar al exilio. Anclado en México, la temática de la transición a la democracia, acuciante en distintos países de América Latina y de Europa, lo hace desembocar en una serie de estudios sobre vínculos entre la tradición democrática y la socialista, sobre la noción de progreso y sobre el preocupante divorcio que entre cultura y política se viene profundizando desde los tiempos de la Segunda Guerra Mundial. Siempre con los escritos de Gramsci latiendo en el núcleo de sus preocupaciones, Aricó regresa a la Argentina en 1983. Considerando que ni el liberalismo, ni el marxismo-leninismo, ni el populismo, ni la socialdemocracia pueden ya contribuir al montaje de un "pensamiento fuerte" de expectativas emancipatorias, profundizando además en la temática de la "dilatación de la subjetividad" y en un manejo desprejuiciado de la obra del intelectual reaccionario alemán Carl Schmitt, Aricó ensaya un recorrido inédito, estimulado por la idea-fuerza de una "democracia social avanzada", capaz de dar respuestas ambiciosas a aquello que viene señalando como una crisis de civilización.

José Aricó y la "crisis de civilización" : La búsqueda de una imbricación democrático-socialista para un desarrollo de la "dilatación de la subjetividad" (1979-1986)

Moviéndonos entre la sociología política y la historia intelectual, abordaremos en este trabajo aspectos de la obra del "gramsciano argentino" José María Aricó (1931-1991). Con una reconocida actividad político-intelectual desarrollada en su país durante tres décadas, el golpe militar de 1976 obliga a Aricó a marchar al exilio. Anclado en México, la temática de la transición a la democracia, acuciante en distintos países de América Latina y de Europa, lo hace desembocar en una serie de estudios sobre vínculos entre la tradición democrática y la socialista, sobre la noción de progreso y sobre el preocupante divorcio que entre cultura y política se viene profundizando desde los tiempos de la Segunda Guerra Mundial. Siempre con los escritos de Gramsci latiendo en el núcleo de sus preocupaciones, Aricó regresa a la Argentina en 1983. Considerando que ni el liberalismo, ni el marxismo-leninismo, ni el populismo, ni la socialdemocracia pueden ya contribuir al montaje de un "pensamiento fuerte" de expectativas emancipatorias, profundizando además en la temática de la "dilatación de la subjetividad" y en un manejo desprejuiciado de la obra del intelectual reaccionario alemán Carl Schmitt, Aricó ensaya un recorrido inédito, estimulado por la idea-fuerza de una "democracia social avanzada", capaz de dar respuestas ambiciosas a aquello que viene señalando como una crisis de civilización.

José Aricó y la "crisis de civilización" : La búsqueda de una imbricación democrático-socialista para un desarrollo de la "dilatación de la subjetividad" (1979-1986)

Moviéndonos entre la sociología política y la historia intelectual, abordaremos en este trabajo aspectos de la obra del "gramsciano argentino" José María Aricó (1931-1991). Con una reconocida actividad político-intelectual desarrollada en su país durante tres décadas, el golpe militar de 1976 obliga a Aricó a marchar al exilio. Anclado en México, la temática de la transición a la democracia, acuciante en distintos países de América Latina y de Europa, lo hace desembocar en una serie de estudios sobre vínculos entre la tradición democrática y la socialista, sobre la noción de progreso y sobre el preocupante divorcio que entre cultura y política se viene profundizando desde los tiempos de la Segunda Guerra Mundial. Siempre con los escritos de Gramsci latiendo en el núcleo de sus preocupaciones, Aricó regresa a la Argentina en 1983. Considerando que ni el liberalismo, ni el marxismo-leninismo, ni el populismo, ni la socialdemocracia pueden ya contribuir al montaje de un "pensamiento fuerte" de expectativas emancipatorias, profundizando además en la temática de la "dilatación de la subjetividad" y en un manejo desprejuiciado de la obra del intelectual reaccionario alemán Carl Schmitt, Aricó ensaya un recorrido inédito, estimulado por la idea-fuerza de una "democracia social avanzada", capaz de dar respuestas ambiciosas a aquello que viene señalando como una crisis de civilización.

The institutional design of intra-party democracy through legal instruments: Turkish case

The importance of political parties for contemporary representative democracies is beyond dispute. Despite their significance for state-level democracy, political parties continue to be regarded as oligarchical and to be criticised because of their internal practices. For this reason, intra-party democracy (IPD) warrants in-depth analysis. This thesis investigates IPD in Turkey, primarily from the perspective of participatory democracy, with the purpose of suggesting reforms to the Turkish Political Parties Law (TPPL). Turkish political parties and Turkish party regulation provide an interesting case because there is a significant difference between mature democracies and Turkey regarding IPD regulation. IPD in established democracies has always been regarded as a private concern of parties and has been left unregulated. IPD in Turkey, by contrast, is provided for both by the constitution and the TPPL. Although IPD is a constitutional and legal requirement in Turkey, however, political parties in fact display a high level of non-democratic administration. The main reason is that the TPPL only pays lip service to the idea of IPD and requires no specific measures apart from establishing a party congress with a representative form of democracy. By establishing and holding party congresses, political parties are perceived as conforming to the requirements of IPD under the law. In addition, the contested nature of democracy as a concept has impeded the creation of efficacious legal principles. Thus, the existing party law fails to tackle the lack of IPD within political parties and, for this reason, is in need of reform. Furthermore, almost every Turkish party’s own constitution highlights the importance of IPD and promises IPD. However, these declared commitments to IPD in their constitutions alone, especially in countries where the democratic culture is weak, are unlikely to make much difference in practice. Accordingly, external regulation is necessary to ensure the protection of the rights and interests of the party members with regards to their participation in intra-party decision-making processes. Nevertheless, in spite of a general consensus in favour of reforming the TPPL, a lack of consensus exists as to what kind of reforms should be adopted. This thesis proposes that reforming the TPPL in line with an approach based on participatory democracy could provide better IPD within Turkish political parties, citing as evidence comparative case studies of the participatory practices for policy-making, leadership selection and candidate selection in mature democracies. This thesis also analyses membership registration and the effect of state funding on IPD, which are highly problematic in Turkey and represent impediments to the flourishing of IPD.

The Worsening of the employment and work conditions and its relationship to the self-perceived health in European working population. Relevance and effects of the latest socioeconomic crisis

The recent crisis of the capitalistic economic system has altered the working conditions and occupations in the European Union. The recession situation has accelerated trends and has brought transformations that have been observed before. Changes have not looked the same way in all the countries of the Union. The social occupation norms, labour relations models and the type of global welfare provision can help underline some of these inequalities. Poor working conditions can expose workers to situations of great risk. This is one of the basic assumptions of the theoretical models and analytical studies of the approach to the psychosocial work environment. Changes in working conditions of the population seems to be important to explain in the worst health states. To observe these features in the current period of economic recession it has made a comparative study of trend through the possibilities of the European Working Conditions Survey in the 2005 and 2010 editions. It has also set different multivariate logistic regression models to explore potential partnerships with the worst conditions of employment and work. It seems that the economic crisis has intensified changes in working conditions and highlighted the effects of those conditions on the poor health of the working population. This conclusion can’t be extended for all EU countries; some differences were observed in terms of global welfare models.

Investigative journalism in Mexico: between ideals and realities. The case of Morelia

The aim of this paper is to analyse the state of the investigative journalism in Mexico, especially the one that is practiced at the local level in the provinces. That is, this research is based upon a case study conducted in Morelia, the capital city of the state of Michoacán. The empirical evidence will show that there is an evident divergence regarding the practice of the investigative journalism: on the one hand, journalists are aware of what this concept involves and they consider that they practice it on a regular basis; but, on the other, the content analysis prove otherwise. In other words, the account of what is actually printed significantly differs from the news workers’ perceptions, because the former shows a poorly developed journalistic investigation practice.

El oráculo griego en la época de la producibilidad escrita: la crisis de la autoridad mántica en "Aves" (960-996) de Aristófanes

Este artículo se propone analizar la escena del cresmólogo intruso en Aves, revalorizando la comedia aristofánica como fuente de conocimiento histórico. Este análisis se centra en la práctica oracular como una técnica de producción escrita vinculada a la autoridad religiosa. De esta manera, se exploran dos campos de estudios, como la comedia antigua y la adivinación griega, cuyo vínculo no ha sido explorado en profundidad. Para dar cuenta del momento crítico de la institución oracular durante la Guerra del Peloponeso, se reconstruyen perspectivas sobre dicho fenómeno en otras fuentes como Tucídides o Demóstenes. Esto no solo ofrece una mirada «cómica» sobre la adivinación, sino que también permite comprender la práctica oracular como técnica y, en consecuencia, qué elementos de su funcionamiento podían ser manipulados.