Risk-informed decision-making in the presence of epistemic uncertainty

An important issue in risk analysis is the distinction between epistemic and aleatory uncertainties. In this paper, the use of distinct representation formats for aleatory and epistemic uncertainties is advocated, the latter being modelled by sets of possible values. Modern uncertainty theories based on convex sets of probabilities are known to be instrumental for hybrid representations where aleatory and epistemic components of uncertainty remain distinct. Simple uncertainty representation techniques based on fuzzy intervals and p-boxes are used in practice. This paper outlines a risk analysis methodology from elicitation of knowledge about parameters to decision. It proposes an elicitation methodology where the chosen representation format depends on the nature and the amount of available information. Uncertainty propagation methods then blend Monte Carlo simulation and interval analysis techniques. Nevertheless, results provided by these techniques, often in terms of probability intervals, may be too complex to interpret for a decision-maker and we, therefore, propose to compute a unique indicator of the likelihood of risk, called confidence index. It explicitly accounts for the decisionmaker’s attitude in the face of ambiguity. This step takes place at the end of the risk analysis process, when no further collection of evidence is possible that might reduce the ambiguity due to epistemic uncertainty. This last feature stands in contrast with the Bayesian methodology, where epistemic uncertainties on input parameters are modelled by single subjective probabilities at the beginning of the risk analysis process.

A whole-genome massively parallel sequencing analysis of BRCA1 mutant oestrogen receptor-negative and -positive breast cancers

BRCA1 encodes a tumour suppressor protein that plays pivotal roles in homologous recombination (HR) DNA repair, cell-cycle checkpoints, and transcriptional regulation. BRCA1 germline mutations confer a high risk of early-onset breast and ovarian cancer. In more than 80% of cases, tumours arising in BRCA1 germline mutation carriers are oestrogen receptor (ER)-negative; however, up to 15% are ER-positive. It has been suggested that BRCA1 ER-positive breast cancers constitute sporadic cancers arising in the context of a BRCA1 germline mutation rather than being causally related to BRCA1 loss-of-function. Whole-genome massively parallel sequencing of ER-positive and ER-negative BRCA1 breast cancers, and their respective germline DNAs, was used to characterize the genetic landscape of BRCA1 cancers at base-pair resolution. Only BRCA1 germline mutations, somatic loss of the wild-type allele, and TP53 somatic mutations were recurrently found in the index cases. BRCA1 breast cancers displayed a mutational signature consistent with that caused by lack of HR DNA repair in both ER-positive and ER-negative cases. Sequencing analysis of independent cohorts of hereditary BRCA1 and sporadic non-BRCA1 breast cancers for the presence of recurrent pathogenic mutations and/or homozygous deletions found in the index cases revealed that DAPK3, TMEM135, KIAA1797, PDE4D, and GATA4 are potential additional drivers of breast cancers. This study demonstrates that BRCA1 pathogenic germline mutations coupled with somatic loss of the wild-type allele are not sufficient for hereditary breast cancers to display an ER-negative phenotype, and has led to the identification of three potential novel breast cancer genes (ie DAPK3, TMEM135, and GATA4).

Development of a genotyping microarray for Usher syndrome

Usher syndrome, a combination of retinitis pigmentosa (RP) and sensorineural hearing loss with or without vestibular dysfunction, displays a high degree of clinical and genetic heterogeneity. Three clinical subtypes can be distinguished, based on the age of onset and severity of the hearing impairment, and the presence or absence of vestibular abnormalities. Thus far, eight genes have been implicated in the syndrome, together comprising 347 protein-coding exons.

The role of adiposity in cardiometabolic traits:a Mendelian randomization analysis

The association between adiposity and cardiometabolic traits is well known from epidemiological studies. Whilst the causal relationship is clear for some of these traits, for others it is not. We aimed to determine whether adiposity is causally related to various cardiometabolic traits using the Mendelian randomization approach.

External validation of the 2008 Framingham cardiovascular risk equation for CHD and stroke events in a European population of middle-aged men. The PRIME study

To test the applicability of the sex-specific 2008 Framingham general cardiovascular risk equation for coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke in European middle-aged men from Ireland and France.

Defining the role of common variation in the genomic and biological architecture of adult human height

Using genome-wide data from 253,288 individuals, we identified 697 variants at genome-wide significance that together explained one-fifth of the heritability for adult height. By testing different numbers of variants in independent studies, we show that the most strongly associated 1/42,000, 1/43,700 and 1/49,500 SNPs explained 1/421%, 1/424% and 1/429% of phenotypic variance. Furthermore, all common variants together captured 60% of heritability. The 697 variants clustered in 423 loci were enriched for genes, pathways and tissue types known to be involved in growth and together implicated genes and pathways not highlighted in earlier efforts, such as signaling by fibroblast growth factors, WNT/I 2-catenin and chondroitin sulfate-related genes. We identified several genes and pathways not previously connected with human skeletal growth, including mTOR, osteoglycin and binding of hyaluronic acid. Our results indicate a genetic architecture for human height that is characterized by a very large but finite number (thousands) of causal variants.

Genetic studies of body mass index yield new insights for obesity biology

Obesity is heritable and predisposes to many diseases. To understand the genetic basis of obesity better, here we conduct a genome-wide association study and Metabochip meta-analysis of body mass index (BMI), a measure commonly used to define obesity and assess adiposity, in up to 339,224 individuals. This analysis identifies 97 BMI-associated loci (P < 5 × 10(-8)), 56 of which are novel. Five loci demonstrate clear evidence of several independent association signals, and many loci have significant effects on other metabolic phenotypes. The 97 loci account for ∼2.7% of BMI variation, and genome-wide estimates suggest that common variation accounts for >20% of BMI variation. Pathway analyses provide strong support for a role of the central nervous system in obesity susceptibility and implicate new genes and pathways, including those related to synaptic function, glutamate signalling, insulin secretion/action, energy metabolism, lipid biology and adipogenesis.

Wahrnehmungs- und Betätigungsformen des Vertrauens im deutsch-französischen Vergleich:Representations, Forms and practice of Trust in French and German comparison

Thomas Würtenberger, Dieter K. Tscheulin, Jean-Claude Usunier, Dominique Jeannerod, Eric Davoine (Hrsg.):
Wahrnehmungs- und Betätigungsformen des Vertrauens im deutsch-französischen Vergleich
Berlin, Berlin GmbH, 2002

The Cultures of Popular Culture

Special Issue of the 'Proceedings of the Royal Irish Academy Modern Languages Symposium', reflecting a selection of papers from the Belfast Conference (13th-14th December 2013)

European Cystic Fibrosis Society Standards of Care: Quality Management in cystic fibrosis

Since the earliest days of cystic fibrosis (CF) treatment, patient data have been recorded and reviewed in order to identify the factors that lead to more favourable outcomes. Large data repositories, such as the US Cystic Fibrosis Registry, which was established in the 1960s, enabled successful treatments and patient outcomes to be recognized and improvement programmes to be implemented in specialist CF centres. Over the past decades, the greater volumes of data becoming available through Centre databases and patient registries led to the possibility of making comparisons between different therapies, approaches to care and indeed data recording. The quality of care for individuals with CF has become a focus at several levels: patient, centre, regional, national and international. This paper reviews the quality management and improvement issues at each of these levels with particular reference to indicators of health, the role of CF Centres, regional networks, national health policy, and international data registration and comparisons.