Desempenho de analistas sell-side no mercado de ações brasileiro

The purpose of this study was to analyze the behavior of Sell-Side analysts and analysts propose a classification, considering the performance of the price forecasts and recom- mendations (sell-hold-buy) in the Brazilian stock market. For this, the first step was to analyze the consensus of analysts to understand the importance of this collective interven- tion in the market; the second was to analyze the analysts individually to understand how improve their analysis in time. Third was to understand how are the main methods of ranking used in markets. Finally, propose a form of classification that reflects the previous aspects discussed. To investigate the hypotheses proposed in the study were used linear models for panel to capture elements in time. The data of price forecasts and analyst recommendations individually and consensus, in the period 2005-2013 were obtained from Bloomberg R ○ . The main results were: (i) superior performance of consensus recommen- dations, compared with the individual analyzes; (ii) associating the number of analysts issuing recommendations with improved accuracy allows supposing that this number may be associated with increased consensus strength and hence accuracy; (iii) the anchoring effect of the analysts consensus revisions makes his predictions are biased, overvaluating the assets; (iv) analysts need to have greater caution in times of economic turbulence, noting also foreign markets such as the USA. For these may result changes in bias between optimism and pessimism; (v) effects due to changes in bias, as increased pessimism can cause excessive increase in purchase recommendations number. In this case, analysts can should be more cautious in analysis, mainly for consistency between recommendation and the expected price; (vi) the experience of the analyst with the asset economic sector and the asset contributes to the improvement of forecasts, however, the overall experience showed opposite evidence; (vii) the optimism associated with the overall experience, over time, shows a similar behavior to an excess of confidence, which could cause reduction of accuracy; (viii) the conflicting effect of general experience between the accuracy and the observed return shows evidence that, over time, the analyst has effects similar to the endowment bias on assets, which would result in a conflict analysis of recommendations and forecasts ; (ix) despite the focus on fewer sectors contribute to the quality of accuracy, the same does not occur with the focus on assets. So it is possible that analysts may have economies of scale when cover more assets within the same industry; and finally, (x) was possible to develop a proposal for classification analysts to consider both returns and the consistency of these predictions, called Analysis coefficient. This ranking resulted better results, considering the return / standard deviation.

A Framework for Citizen-Centred Social Statistics and Analysis (Working Paper 48)

Economic policy-making has long been more integrated than social policy-making in part because the statistics and much of the analysis that supports economic policy are based on a common conceptual framework – the system of national accounts. People interested in economic analysis and economic policy share a common language of communication, one that includes both concepts and numbers. This paper examines early attempts to develop a system of social statistics that would mirror the system of national accounts, particular the work on the development of social accounts that took place mainly in the 60s and 70s. It explores the reasons why these early initiatives failed but argues that the preconditions now exist to develop a new conceptual framework to support integrated social statistics – and hence a more coherent, effective social policy. Optimism is warranted for two reasons. First, we can make use of the radical transformation that has taken place in information technology both in processing data and in providing wide access to the knowledge that can flow from the data. Second, the conditions exist to begin to shift away from the straight jacket of government-centric social statistics, with its implicit assumption that governments must be the primary actors in finding solutions to social problems. By supporting the decision-making of all the players (particularly individual citizens) who affect social trends and outcomes, we can start to move beyond the sterile, ideological discussions that have dominated much social discourse in the past and begin to build social systems and structures that evolve, almost automatically, based on empirical evidence of ‘what works best for whom’. The paper describes a Canadian approach to developing a framework, or common language, to support the evolution of an integrated, citizen-centric system of social statistics and social analysis. This language supports the traditional social policy that we have today; nothing is lost. However, it also supports a quite different social policy world, one where individual citizens and families (not governments) are seen as the central players – a more empirically-driven world that we have referred to as the ‘enabling society’.

Late-career international migration and reproductive work. A comparison between Peruvian and Ukrainian women in the Southern Europe

Research on the relationship between reproductive work and women´s life trajectories including the experience of labour migration has mainly focused on the case of relatively young mothers who leave behind, or later re-join, their children. While it is true that most women migrate at a younger age, there are a significant number of cases of men and women who move abroad for labour purposes at a more advanced stage, undertaking a late-career migration. This is still an under-estimated and under-researched sub-field that uncovers a varied range of issues, including the global organization of reproductive work and the employment of migrant women as domestic workers late in their lives. By pooling the findings of two qualitative studies, this article focuses on Peruvian and Ukrainian women who seek employment in Spain and Italy when they are well into their forties, or older. A commonality the two groups of women share is that, independently of their level of education and professional experience, more often than not they end up as domestic and care workers. The article initially discusses the reasons for late-career female migration, taking into consideration the structural and personal determinants that have affected Peruvian and Ukrainian women’s careers in their countries of origin and settlement. After this, the focus is set on the characteristics of domestic employment at later life, on the impact on their current lives, including the transnational family organization, and on future labour and retirement prospects. Apart from an evaluation of objective working and living conditions, we discuss women’s personal impressions of being domestic workers in the context of their occupational experiences and family commitments. In this regard, women report varying levels of personal and professional satisfaction, as well as different patterns of continuity-discontinuity in their work and family lives, and of optimism towards the future. Divergences could be, to some extent, explained by the effect of migrants´ transnational social practices and policies of states.

Bienestar psicológico, optimismo y resiliencia en mujeres con cáncer de mama

Objective: To evaluate the relationship between Perceived Psychological well-being, Optimism and Resilience in women survivors of breast cancer.Method: The sample was composed of 30 women diagnosed with breast cancer who were undergoing adjuvant treatment in Oncology Units General Hospital of Jerez de la Frontera and the University Hospital Puerta del Mar (Cadiz). The average age was 47.47 years (SD = 6,356) and the average of months from diagnosis of the disease was 9.93 (SD = 8,541). Scale of Psychological Well-being administered Perceived Ryff (1989), the Life Orientation Test Revised (LOT-R) Scheier, Carver and Bridges (1994) and the Scale of Resilience Wagnild and Young (1993) to assess psychological well-being the dispositional optimism and resilience respectivelyResults: Descriptive analyzes show that women diagnosed with breast cancer have levels of psychological well-being, dispositional optimism and higher than the average values provided by Resilience scales. On the other hand, regression analyses revealed that only some of the dimensions of resilience allowed to explain and predict some dimensions of psychological wellbeing, not dispositional optimism.Conclusions: The results seem to confirm the idea that if the capacity of women with breast moderate negative affect generated by the diagnosis itself and the consequences of their cancer treatment works and to promote their adaptation to the new situation we can contribute to increasing psychological well-being.

A Influência de um Curso de Meditação nos Níveis de Mindfulness, Satisfação com a Vida e Optimismo

O mindfulness tem sido alvo de um crescente interesse no domínio da Psicologia e a sua importância ao nível do funcionamento psicológico tem vindo a ser empiricamente verificada. Os estudos sobre mindfulness têm demonstrado que este constructo está positivamente relacionado com a saúde psicológica e negativamente com a psicopatologia. Deste modo, a presente investigação teve como objectivo compreender a relação entre mindfulness, satisfação com a vida e optimismo, bem como explicar a influência de um curso de meditação nestas variáveis. Neste sentido, os participantes completaram uma bateria de questionários de auto-resposta avaliando o mindfulness, satisfação com a vida e optimismo num primeiro momento de avaliação, antes do curso de meditação (N = 104), num segundo momento, depois do curso de meditação (N = 30). Os resultados revelam um aumento significativo nos níveis de mindfulness, satisfação com a vida e optimismo após a frequência do curso de meditação e indicam que a prática do curso de meditação fortalece a relação entre estes constructos. Apesar de algumas limitações metodológicas que futura investigação deverá tentar colmatar, este estudo reforça a importância da prática de meditação para um funcionamento psicológico positivo e adaptativo. / Mindfulness has been target of a growing interest to Psychology in terms of the verified importance to psychological function. Studies show that mindfulness has demonstrated an important correlation with psychological health and negatively to psychopathology. The objective of the present research is to understand the relation between mindfulness, satisfaction with life and optimism as well as to explain the influence of a course of meditation in the study of these variables. The participants of this research completed several different types of auto-response questionnaires regarding mindfulness, satisfaction with life, and optimism; prior to the meditation course (N = 104), and then, after the meditation course (N = 30). Therefore, the results of the research demonstrated that the level of mindfulness, satisfaction with life and optimism significantly increased as the participants undergone in the meditation course as well as indicated that the practice such course strengthens the relation between the variables. Despite some methodological limitations that a future research should relieve, this study reinforces the practice of meditation for a positive and adaptive psychological function.

A satisfação e a intenção de continuidade de uso em servços de e-learning:validação empírica de um modelo aplicado no serviço público

The present study aims to investigate the constructs of Technological Readiness Index (TRI) and the Expectancy Disconfirmation Theory (EDT) as determinants of satisfaction and continuance intention use in e-learning services. Is proposed a theoretical model that seeks to measure the phenomenon suited to the needs of public organizations that offer distance learning course with the use of virtual platforms for employees. The research was conducted from a quantitative analytical approach, via online survey in a sample of 343 employees of 2 public organizations in RN who have had e-learning experience. The strategy of data analysis used multivariate analysis techniques, including structural equation modeling (SEM), operationalized by AMOS© software. The results showed that quality, quality disconfirmation, value and value disconfirmation positively impact on satisfaction, as well as disconfirmation usability, innovativeness and optimism. Likewise, satisfaction proved to be decisive for the purpose of continuance intention use. In addition, technological readiness and performance are strongly related. Based on the structural model found by the study, public organizations can implement e-learning services for employees focusing on improving learning and improving skills practiced in the organizational environment

O rácio otimismo/pessimismo como preditor da criatividade

O nosso estudo procurou investigar de que modo o rácio otimismo/pessimismo prediz a criatividade no trabalho. Foi inquirida uma amostra de 96 indivíduos de 54 organizações, os quais descreveram os seus níveis de otimismo e de pessimismo e cuja criatividade foi descrita pelos seus líderes (n=96). Os principais resultados apontam que existe uma relação curvilínea entre o rácio otimismo/pessimismo e a criatividade, o que sugere que o otimismo, quando não é exagerado e irrealista, se relaciona positivamente a criatividade dos indivíduos.

Copingstrategier i vardagen vid multipel skleros - En litteraturstudie

Multipel Skleros [MS] en är kronisk, neurologisk sjukdom som angriper det centrala nervsystemet genom nedbrytning av myelin, vilket försvårar nervsignalernas transport till målcellerna. Den som drabbats av MS kan uppleva symptom av fysisk och psykisk karaktär som pareser, spasticitet, koordinationsstörningar, fatigue, depression och ångest. För att hantera sjukdomen behöver personer med MS använda coping. Inom coping finns aktiva och passiva strategier. Till de aktiva copingstrategierna hör probleminriktad copingstrategi och emotionell copingstrategi och inom passiv hör undvikande copingstrategi. Syftet med studien var att beskriva användandet av copingstrategier hos personer diagnostiserade med MS utifrån en teoretisk referensram. Metoden som användes var litteraturstudie. Urvalet genomfördes utifrån Polit & Becks (2012) niostegsmodell. Sökningarna genomfördes i databaserna CINAHL, PsycInfo och PubMed. Efter urvalsprocessen kvarstod 14 artiklar som kom att ligga till grund för resultatet. Resultatet presenterades i tre kategorier, probleminriktad-, emotionell- och undvikande copingstrategi. De individuella förutsättningar som framkom vara centrala för användandet av copingstrategierna var resurser, acceptans, optimism, förnekelse och distansering. Information visade sig också genomsyra samtliga copingstrategier.  Slutsatsen var att en persons individuella förutsättningar var avgörande för hur coping användes. Sjuksköterskan har en viktig roll i att informera personer med MS om hur de kan använda sig av copingstrategier.

Sonolência Diurna Excessiva e Otimismo em Estudantes do 1º Ano do Ensino Superior

Os principais objetivos do presente estudo são analisar a prevalência da sonolência diurna excessiva (SDE) em estudantes do Ensino Superior (ES), bem como os seus níveis de otimismo. Participaram no presente estudo 162 estudantes universitários de várias faculdades de ES privado, de ambos os sexos, com idades compreendidas entre os 17 e os 46 anos (M=20,49; DP=5,153) e que frequentavam diferentes cursos (Psicologia, Ciências da Comunicação, Análises Clínicas, Ciências Farmacêuticas e Fisioterapia). O protocolo de recolha de dados foi constituído por um questionário sociodemográfico, dois itens do Questionário do Estado de Saúde (SF-36), a Escala de Sonolência de Epworth (ESE) e a Escala de Orientação para a Vida (LOT-R). A ESE apresentou um valor de alfa de Cronbach de α=0,68 e o LOT-R um valor de alfa de Cronbach de α=0,84. Os principais resultados descritivos mostram uma pontuação média na ESE de 8,98 (DP=3,85), que corresponde a uma prevalência de 32,1% (n=52) de SDE. A pontuação média obtida com a LOT-R foi de 14,3 (DP=4,77), que corresponde a 65,4% (n=106) de estudantes otimistas. Foram encontradas correlações estatisticamente significativas entre a idade e a SDE, mas não entre a SDE e as variáveis de perceção de saúde. Os resultados diferenciais não apresentaram significância estatística na SDE, quando o sexo, o curso e a situação de residência foram tidos em consideração. A idade foi assumida, nas análises de regressão linear, como variável preditora explicativa de 3% da variância dos resultados da ESE. Relativamente ao otimismo, este mostrou-se correlacionado com a perceção do estado de saúde no momento, mas não com a SDE, idade e transição de saúde. Não foi encontrada significância estatística no otimismo quando o sexo, o curso e a situação de residência foram considerados. As análises de regressão linear identificaram como modelo preditor explicativo de cerca de 12% da variação total do LOT-R o modelo que integra a idade e a perceção do estado de saúde no momento. Estudos posteriores devem ser realizados para se aferir a prevalência de SDE e caraterizar o otimismo em estudantes universitários, bem como a relação entre ambos e com outras variáveis relevantes, de foma a apoiar, adequadamente a intervenção.

The sources of inequity in the education system of Serbia and how to combat them

The concept of equal opportunity for all students is deeply embedded in the Serbian constitution and in education laws. On that level, there is no doubt that everyone is ensured an opportunity to receive quality education. Many measures in education policy have been created specifically to achieve this objective and make the system fair and inclusive. The Coleman Report was linked to a wave of optimism that certain educational measures would help in achieving these noble goals. This aim is a high priority in education in a democratic country, and due to its importance needs to be re-examined. Thus, the present research examines the equity of students in the Serbian education system, detecting areas on all educational levels that could be (or already are) systemic sources of inequity (e.g., criteria for preschool institution enrolment, the system of student awards, rationalisation of the school network, the concept of entrance exams to secondary school or university, etc.). A number of measures have already been taken in the system specifically to deal with inequity (e.g., the Preschool Preparatory Programme, dropout measures, inclusion, scholarships, etc.). The effects of these measures in particular are analysed in the present work. In addition to an analysis of the systemic sources of inequity in the Serbian education system, the article also makes recommendations for their overcoming. (DIPF/Orig.)

Importancia del “efecto rebote” o paradoja de Jevons en el diseño de la política ambiental

En este artículo de reflexión, se analiza el diseño actual de las políticas ambientales en Colombia, las cuales se han centrado principalmente en el aprovechamiento de los recursos naturales como fuentes de materiales y energía para generar crecimiento económico. En este sentido, es evidente que la preocupación colectiva por el manejo de la oferta ambiental, como base para el desarrollo sostenible establecido en la Constitución, no ha logrado implementarse de forma efectiva, principalmente por el enfoque reactivo y coercitivo de las políticas y normativas vigentes, aunadas a un escaso fomento para la transformación del estilo de vida consumista nacional, situación que ha generado un efecto rebote incrementando los niveles de uso y consumo de los recursos naturales (especialmente de los denominados no renovables) y limitado la eficiencia energética; por ejemplo, esto puede observarse en el sector minero-energético nacional. Considerando que existe una preocupación global por la sostenibilidad, es necesario que el diseño de las políticas ambientales nacionales se aleje del optimismo económico y tecnológico del modelo económico vigente e incorpore, de forma cierta en sus políticas, estrategias que permitan equilibrar las relaciones de oferta y demanda de los servicios ambientales que sustentan el desarrollo nacional, alentando, al tiempo, el consumo responsable de la población colombiana, además de atender las iniciativas comunitarias de regulación e inclusión social en el manejo de los bienes y servicios ambientales para generar procesos de sostenibilidad fuerte.

The emergence and evolution of optimistic expectations in schoolchildren

When we study optimism in children, we note the temporary emergence of a bias that leads them to make optimistic predictions. In this study we intend to learn more about changes that can be observed in the optimistic bias of 6- to 12-year old schoolchildren when they predict future events, and in the way they justify those predictions. A total of 77 pupils participated in this study; we evaluated each one of them individually with a Piagetian interview, asking them to formulate predictions about a series of hypothetical situations. After analyzing whether a child's prediction implied that the situation would maintain itself or would change for better or for worse, we classified the justifications they provided for their predictions. Results show that these subjects regarded positive change as more likely in the case of psychological or hybrid events than for purely biological ones, and that younger children tended to display a greater bias in favor of the likelihood of positive change. These younger children justified their predictions stating that nature or the passing of time could be responsible for the changes, without needing further intervention on the part of other agents. Older children, on the other hand, tended to provide similar kinds of explanations to justify their expectation of stasis.

A review of weed management in wheat using crop competition

Wheat occupies a principal place in the diet of humans globally, contributing more to our daily calorie and protein intake than any other crop. For this reason, preventing weed induced yield losses in wheat has high significance for world food sustainability. Herbicides and tillage play an important role in weed control, but their use has often unacceptable consequences for humans and the wider environment. Additionally, the range of herbicides effective on key weeds is dwindling due to the evolution of herbicide resistance. Elevating crop competitiveness against weeds, through a combination of wheat breeding and innovative planting design (planting density, row spacing and orientation), has strong potential to reduce weed-induced yield losses in wheat. The last decade of research has provided a solid foundation for the breeding of weed suppressive wheat cultivars, and continued research in this area should be a focus for the future. In the interim, there is cause for optimism that weeds can be effectively suppressed using existing wheat varieties, through careful cultivar selection and choice of planting design. Further research is required to define the nature of relationships between cultivar traits and competitive planting strategies, across diverse weed flora in multiple countries, sites and seasons. Investment in such innovation promises to produce benefits, not only in terms of sustained wheat yields, but also in terms of human and ecosystem health, through ameliorating chemical and sediment contamination, soil degradation, and CO2 pollution.

Locus of Control revisited: development of a new bi-dimensional measure

Locus of control (LOC) has a long tradition in Psychology, and various instruments have been designed for its measurement. However, the dimensionality of the construct is unclear, and still gives rise to considerable controversy. The aim of the present work is to present new evidence of validity in relation to the dimensionality of LOC. To this end, we developed a new measurement instrument with 23 items. The sample was made up of 697 Spanish participants, of whom 57.5% were women (M=22.43; SD= 9.19). The results support the bi-dimensionality of LOC: internal (α=.87) and external (α=.85). Furthermore, both subscales have shown adequate validity evidence in relation to self-efficacy, achievement motivation and optimism (r xy> .21). Statistically significant differences were found by sex (p < .05): men scored higher in external LOC and women in internal LOC. The validity evidence supports a two-dimensional structure for the LOC, and the measurement instrument developed showed adequate psychometric properties.

Dia da mãe : “Virtuosidades ao serviço do desempenho”

O Capital psicológico positivo (CPP) são capacidades psicológicas que definem um estado de desenvolvimento psicológico positivo em que a pessoa se caracteriza por: a) apresentar uma elevada confiança para despender o esforço necessário para ser bem sucedida em tarefas desafiantes; b) fazer atribuições positivas acerca dos acontecimentos que vão suceder no presente e no futuro; c) manifestar perseverança em relação aos objectivos definidos, e, quando necessário mostrar-se capaz de redireccionar os meios para atingir os fins; d) revelar capacidade para recuperar de adversidades. As capacidades psicológicas positivas que melhor definem os critérios anteriormente definidos são: auto-confiança, optimismo, esperança e resiliência. Neste estudo foram recolhidos dados do nível Psycap de 100 vendedores e avaliações de CCO em cinco facetas (harmonia interpessoal, espírito de iniciativa, conscienciosidade, identificação com a organização e orientação para os clientes) e o Output individual numa dada tarefa, tendo-se obtido 100 díades. Explorou-se neste estudo a relação existente entre o PsyCap e dois tipos de desempenho (intra e extra papel) e a relação entre o desempenho contextual e de tarefa. Os resultados indicam que o PsyCap se relaciona com os dois tipos de desempenho, bem como a existência de uma relação entre desempenho contextual e tarefa. Considerações e implicações dos resultados são discutidas ao longo do trabalho.