Graphical probabilistic analysis of the combination of items of evidence

Unlike the evaluation of single items of scientific evidence, the formal study and analysis of the jointevaluation of several distinct items of forensic evidence has to date received some punctual, ratherthan systematic, attention. Questions about the (i) relationships among a set of (usually unobservable)propositions and a set of (observable) items of scientific evidence, (ii) the joint probative valueof a collection of distinct items of evidence as well as (iii) the contribution of each individual itemwithin a given group of pieces of evidence still represent fundamental areas of research. To somedegree, this is remarkable since both, forensic science theory and practice, yet many daily inferencetasks, require the consideration of multiple items if not masses of evidence. A recurrent and particularcomplication that arises in such settings is that the application of probability theory, i.e. the referencemethod for reasoning under uncertainty, becomes increasingly demanding. The present paper takesthis as a starting point and discusses graphical probability models, i.e. Bayesian networks, as frameworkwithin which the joint evaluation of scientific evidence can be approached in some viable way.Based on a review of existing main contributions in this area, the article here aims at presentinginstances of real case studies from the author's institution in order to point out the usefulness andcapacities of Bayesian networks for the probabilistic assessment of the probative value of multipleand interrelated items of evidence. A main emphasis is placed on underlying general patterns of inference,their representation as well as their graphical probabilistic analysis. Attention is also drawnto inferential interactions, such as redundancy, synergy and directional change. These distinguish thejoint evaluation of evidence from assessments of isolated items of evidence. Together, these topicspresent aspects of interest to both, domain experts and recipients of expert information, because theyhave bearing on how multiple items of evidence are meaningfully and appropriately set into context.

Subclinical hypothyroidism and the risk of coronary heart disease: a meta-analysis.

PURPOSE: Subclinical hypothyroidism has been associated with elevated cholesterol and increased risk for atherosclerosis, but data on the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) are conflicting. We performed a systematic review to determine whether subclinical hypothyroidism is associated with CHD in adults. METHODS: We searched MEDLINE from 1966 to April 2005, and the bibliographies of key articles to identify studies that provided risk estimates for CHD or cardiovascular mortality associated with subclinical hypothyroidism. Two authors independently reviewed each potential study for eligibility, assessed methodologic quality, and extracted the data. RESULTS: We identified 14 observational studies that met eligibility criteria. Subclinical hypothyroidism increased the risk of CHD (summary odds ratio [OR]: 1.65, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.28-2.12). The summary OR for CHD was 1.81 (CI, 1.38-2.39) in 9 studies adjusted or matched for demographic characteristics, and 2.38 (CI, 1.53-3.69) after pooling the studies that adjusted for most cardiovascular risk factors. Sensitivity analyses including only population-based studies and those with formal outcome adjudication procedures yielded similar results. Subgroup analyses by type of study design showed a similar trend, but lower risk, in the 5 prospective cohort studies (OR 1.42, CI, 0.91-2.21), compared with the case-control and cross-sectional studies (OR 1.72, CI, 1.25-2.38). CONCLUSION: Our systematic review indicates that subclinical hypothyroidism is associated with an increased risk of CHD. Clinical trials are needed to assess whether thyroxine replacement reduces the risk of CHD in subjects with subclinical hypothyroidism.

Energy gap in the aetiology of body weight gain and obesity: a challenging concept with a complex evaluation and pitfalls.

The concept of energy gap(s) is useful for understanding the consequence of a small daily, weekly, or monthly positive energy balance and the inconspicuous shift in weight gain ultimately leading to overweight and obesity. Energy gap is a dynamic concept: an initial positive energy gap incurred via an increase in energy intake (or a decrease in physical activity) is not constant, may fade out with time if the initial conditions are maintained, and depends on the 'efficiency' with which the readjustment of the energy imbalance gap occurs with time. The metabolic response to an energy imbalance gap and the magnitude of the energy gap(s) can be estimated by at least two methods, i.e. i) assessment by longitudinal overfeeding studies, imposing (by design) an initial positive energy imbalance gap; ii) retrospective assessment based on epidemiological surveys, whereby the accumulated endogenous energy storage per unit of time is calculated from the change in body weight and body composition. In order to illustrate the difficulty of accurately assessing an energy gap we have used, as an illustrative example, a recent epidemiological study which tracked changes in total energy intake (estimated by gross food availability) and body weight over 3 decades in the US, combined with total energy expenditure prediction from body weight using doubly labelled water data. At the population level, the study attempted to assess the cause of the energy gap purported to be entirely due to increased food intake. Based on an estimate of change in energy intake judged to be more reliable (i.e. in the same study population) and together with calculations of simple energetic indices, our analysis suggests that conclusions about the fundamental causes of obesity development in a population (excess intake vs. low physical activity or both) is clouded by a high level of uncertainty.

Ecological-niche factor analysis: how to compute habitat-suitability maps without absence data?

We propose a multivariate approach to the study of geographic species distribution which does not require absence data. Building on Hutchinson's concept of the ecological niche, this factor analysis compares, in the multidimensional space of ecological variables, the distribution of the localities where the focal species was observed to a reference set describing the whole study area. The first factor extracted maximizes the marginality of the focal species, defined as the ecological distance between the species optimum and the mean habitat within the reference area. The other factors maximize the specialization of this focal species, defined as the ratio of the ecological variance in mean habitat to that observed for the focal species. Eigenvectors and eigenvalues are readily interpreted and can be used to build habitat-suitability maps. This approach is recommended in Situations where absence data are not available (many data banks), unreliable (most cryptic or rare species), or meaningless (invaders). We provide an illustration and validation of the method for the alpine ibex, a species reintroduced in Switzerland which presumably has not yet recolonized its entire range.

The CerdàPlan for the Extension of Barcelona: A Constructivist Analysis of a Town-planning Controversy

Peer-reviewed

Review of the concept of digital literacy and its implications on the study of the gender digital divide

El concepte d'alfabetització digital ha evolucionat per diverses vies al llarg del temps pel que fa a l'enfocament teòric emprat per a investigar les seves implicacions en l'estudi de la divisió digital de gènere en diversos contextos de la vida real. L'objectiu principal d'aquest document consisteix a fer servir un enfocament interdisciplinari per a analitzar algunes de les llacunes teòriques i empíriques presents en l'estudi de la divisió digital de gènere. S'analitzen alguns dels estudis empírics existents sobre aquesta qüestió i es proposen futures línies de recerca, amb l'objectiu de cobrir algunes de les llacunes en la recerca relacionada amb les implicacions de l'alfabetització digital en l'anàlisi de la divisió digital de gènere.

Value added logistical support service: logistics cost structure and performance in the new concept. Part 3

The aim of this study is to present an Activity-Based Costing spreadsheet tool for analyzing the logistics costs. The tool can be used both by customer-companies and logistics service providers. The study discusses the influence of different activity models on costs. Additionally this paper discusses about the logistical performance across the total supply chain This study is carried out using ananalytical research approach and literature material has been used for supplementing the concerned research approach. Cost structure analysis was based on the theory of activity-based management. This study was outlined to spare part logistics in machine-shop industry. The outlines of logistics services and logisticalperformance discussed in this report are based on the new logistics business concept (LMS-concept), which has been presented earlier in the Valssi-project. Oneof the aims of this study is to increase awareness of different activity modelson logistics costs. The report paints an overall picture about the business environment and requirements for the new logistics concept.

Strategy Implementation Bottlenecks: Identification, Analysis and Removal

This thesis investigates the strategy implementation process of enterprices; a process whichhas lacked the academic attentioon compared with a rich strategy formation research trdition. Strategy implementation is viewed as a process ensuring tha the strtegies of an organisation are realised fully and quickly, yet with constant consideration of changing circumstances. The aim of this sudy is to provide a framework for identifying, analysing and removing the strategy implementation bottleneck af an organization and thus for intesifying its strategy process.The study is opened by specifying the concept, tasks and key actors of strategy implementation process; especially arguments for the critical implementation role of the top management are provided. In order to facilitate the analysis nad synthetisation of the core findings of scattered doctrine, six characteristic approaches to strategy implementation phenomenon are identified and compared. The Bottleneck Framework is introduced as an instrument for arranging potential strategy realisation problems, prioritising an organisation's implementation obstacles and focusing the improvement measures accordingly. The SUCCESS Framework is introduced as a mnemonic of the seven critical factors to be taken into account when promoting sttrategy implementation. Both frameworks are empirically tested by applying them to real strategy implementation intesification process in an international, industrial, group-structured case enterprise.

An Analysis of Eye Scanpath Entropy in a Progressively Forming Virtual Environment

A sign of presence in virtual environments is that people respond to situations and events as if they were real, where response may be considered at many different levels, ranging from unconscious physiological responses through to overt behavior,emotions, and thoughts. In this paper we consider two responses that gave different indications of the onset of presence in a gradually forming environment. Two aspects of the response of people to an immersive virtual environment were recorded: their eye scanpath, and their skin conductance response (SCR). The scenario was formed over a period of 2 min, by introducing an increasing number of its polygons in random order in a head-tracked head-mounted display. For one group of experimental participants (n 8) the environment formed into one in which they found themselves standing on top of a 3 m high column. For a second group of participants (n 6) the environment was otherwise the same except that the column was only 1 cm high, so that they would be standing at normal ground level. For a third group of participants (n 14) the polygons never formed into a meaningful environment. The participants who stood on top of the tall column exhibited a significant decrease in entropy of the eye scanpath and an increase in the number of SCR by 99 s into the scenario, at a time when only 65% of the polygons had been displayed. The ground level participants exhibited a similar decrease in scanpath entropy, but not the increase in SCR. The random scenario grouping did not exhibit this decrease in eye scanpath entropy. A drop in scanpath entropy indicates that the environment had cohered into a meaningful perception. An increase in the rate of SCR indicates the perception of an aversive stimulus. These results suggest that on these two dimensions (scanpath entropy and rate of SCR) participants were responding realistically to the scenario shown in the virtual environment. In addition, the response occurred well before the entire scenario had been displayed, suggesting that once a set of minimal cues exists within a scenario,it is enough to form a meaningful perception. Moreover, at the level of the sympathetic nervous system, the participants who were standing on top of the column exhibited arousal as if their experience might be real. This is an important practical aspect of the concept of presence.

Internationalization of Experience Pro concept

Diplomityö on tehty STTF:lle (Software Technology Transfer Finland), joka pyrkii kansainvälisille markkinoille Experience Pro -tuotekonseptillaan. Kansainvälistyminen on haasteellinen prosessi pk-yritykselle, ja haastetta haluttiin lähestyä strategisella suunnittelulla. Työn tavoitteena oli teoriatiedon ja löydettyjen kansainvälistymisesimerkkien avulla tuottaa STTF:lle kansainvälistymissuunnitelma strategiaan pohjautuen.Kaksi merkittävintä strategista valintaa STTF:n kansainvälistymisessä olivat kohdemaiden ja operaatiomuodon valinnat. Päätökset tehtiin strategisten analyysien perusteella. Analyysien avulla määritettiin myös yrityksen kilpailuedut. Löydettyjä vahvuuksia pyrittiin hyödyntämään myöhemmin kansainvälistymisen osastrategioita rakennettaessa. Tavoitteiden asettaminen ja markkinointi-mix:n kehittäminen olivat keskeisimmät osat markkinoinnin osastrategiassa. Jakelukanavan merkitystä korostettiin STTF:n kansainvälistymisessä ja yhteistyölle pyrittiin luomaan hyvät edellytykset. Strategia konkretisoitiin luomalla operatiiviset suunnitelmat markkinoinnin tukimateriaalien tuottamiseksi ja yhteistyökumppanien etsimiseksi. Markkinatutkimuksen perusteella potentiaaliset kohdemaat Experience Pro -konseptille olivat Australia, Hollanti, Irlanti, Iso-Britannia, Norja, Ruotsi, Saksa ja Tanska. STTF:llä on muutama sopiva vaihtoehtoinen operaatiomuoto valittavanaan riippuen kohdemaasta. Suomen maine vakaana, korkean teknologian maana voidaan nähdä maaetuna STTF:lle ja muita vahvuuksia ovat STTF:n teknologinen osaaminen, tuotteeseen liittyvät palvelut ja henkilökohtaiset kontaktit. SWOT-analyysi paljasti STTF:n heikkouksia voitettaviksi.Tulevaisuudessa STTF voi jatkaa kansainvälistymistään suunnitelman mukaisesti. Tavoitteiden saavuttaminen vaatii sitoutumista, aktiivista yhteistyökumppanien etsimistä ja jatkuvaa prosessien kehittämistä vastaamaan kansainvälisten markkinoiden vaatimuksia.

Offering Analysis in New Product Launch and Sales Planning

This Master's Thesis has been written for Stora Enso Flexible Packaging Papers business unit. In the North-American mills, the business unit has developed a range of new flexible packaging paper grades. The Master's Thesis researches opportunities for sales of these new flexible packaging papers in selected Western-European markets. This study consists of theoretical and empirical part. Theoretical part presents supply chain of flexible packaging, discovering of customer requirements, concept of an offering, general market analysis, customer analysis and basis for sales planning. Empirical part includes preliminary market analysis based on secondary sources, results of lead user interviews and conclusions and recommendations. Potential customers' technical and commercial requirements were found and these were compared to current Stora Enso Flexible Packaging Papers offering. Also a list of potential new customers was made and sales action suggestions were presented in order to gain new accounts.

Mapping the diagnosis axis of an interface terminology to the NANDA International Taxonomy

Background: Nursing terminologies are designed to support nursing practice but, as with any other clinical tool, they should be evaluated. Cross-mapping is a formal method for examining the validity of the existing controlled vocabularies. Objectives: The study aims to assess the inclusiveness and expressiveness of the nursing diagnosis axis of a newly implemented interface terminology by cross-mapping with the NANDA-I taxonomy. Design/Methods: The study applied a descriptive design, using a cross-sectional, bidirectional mapping strategy. The sample included 728 concepts from both vocabularies. Concept cross-mapping was carried out to identify one-to-one, negative, and hierarchical connections. The analysis was conducted using descriptive statistics. Results: Agreement of the raters" mapping achieved 97%. More than 60% of the nursing diagnosis concepts in the NANDA-I taxonomy were mapped to concepts in the diagnosis axis of the new interface terminology; 71.1% were reversely mapped. Conclusions: Main results for outcome measures suggest that the diagnosis axis of this interface terminology meets the validity criterion of cross-mapping when mapped from and to the NANDA-I taxonomy.

Contrast : a concept in language and its development in Medieval Spanish

The purpose of this PhD thesis is to investigate a semantic relation present in the connection of sentences (more specifically: propositional units). This relation, which we refer to as contrast, includes the traditional categories of adversatives - predominantly represented by the connector but in English and pero in Modern Spanish - and concessives, prototypically verbalised through although / aunque. The aim is to describe, analyse and - as far as possible - to explain the emergence and evolution of different syntactic schemes marking contrast during the first three centuries of Spanish (also referred to as Castilian) as a literary language, i.e., from the 13th to the 15th century. The starting point of this question is a commonplace in syntax, whereby the semantic and syntactic complexity of clause linkage correlates with the degree of textual elaboration. In historical linguistics, i.e., applied to the phylogeny of a language, it is commonly referred to as the parataxis hypothesis A crucial part of the thesis is dedicated by the definition of contrast as a semantic relation. Although the label contrast has been used in this sense, mainly in functional grammar and text linguistics, mainstream grammaticography and linguistics remain attached to the traditional categories adversatives and concessives. In opposition to this traditional view, we present our own model of contrast, based on a pragma-semantic description proposed for the analysis of adversatives by Oswald Ducrot and subsequently adopted by Ekkehard König for the analysis of concessives. We refine and further develop this model in order for it to accommodate all, not just the prototypical instances of contrast in Spanish, arguing that the relationship between adversatives and concessives is a marked opposition, i.e., that the higher degree of semantic and syntactic integration of concessives restricts some possible readings that the adversatives may have, but that this difference is almost systematically neutralised by contextual factors, thus justifying the assumption of contrast as a comprehensive onomasiological category. This theoretical focus is completed by a state-of-the-question overview attempting to account for all relevant forms in which contrast is expressed in Medieval Spanish, with the aid of lexicographic and grammaticographical sources, and an empirical study investigating the expression of corpus in a corpus study on the textual functions of contrast in nine Medieval Spanish texts: Cantar de Mio Cid, Libro de Alexandre, Milagros de Nuestra Sehora, Estoria de Espana, Primera Partida, Lapidario, Libro de buen amor, Conde Lucanor, and Corbacho. This corpus is analysed using quantitative and qualitative tools, and the study is accompanied by a series of methodological remarks on how to investigate a pragma-semantic category in historical linguistics. The corpus study shows that the parataxis hypothesis fails to prove from a statistical viewpoint, although a qualitative analysis shows that the use of subordination does increase over time in some particular contexts.

Prevalence of Acute Coronary Syndrome in Patients Suspected for Pulmonary Embolism or Acute Aortic Syndrome: Rationale for the Triple Rule-out Concept.

BACKGROUND: The aims of the study were to evaluate the prevalence of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) among patients presenting with atypical chest pain who are evaluated for acute aortic syndrome (AAS) or pulmonary embolism (PE) with computed tomoangiography (CTA) and discuss the rationale for the use of triple rule-out (TRO) protocol for triaging these patients. METHODS: This study is a retrospective analysis of patients presenting with atypical chest pain and evaluated with thoracic (CTA), for suspicion of AAS/PE. Two physicians reviewed patient files for demographic characteristics, initial CT and final clinical diagnosis. Patients were classified according to CTA finding into AAS, PE and other diagnoses and according to final clinical diagnosis into AAS, PE, ACS and other diagnoses. RESULTS: Four hundred and sixty-seven patients were evaluated: 396 (84.8%) patients for clinical suspicion of PE and 71 (15.2%) patients for suspicion of AAS. The prevalence of ACS and AAS was low among the PE patients: 5.5% and 0.5% respectively (P = 0.0001), while the prevalence of ACS and PE was 18.3% and 5.6% among AAS patients (P = 0.14 and P = 0.34 respectively). CONCLUSION: The prevalence of ACS and AAS among patients suspected clinically of having PE is limited while the prevalence of ACS and PE among patients suspected clinically of having AAS is significant. Accordingly patients suspected for PE could be evaluated with dedicated PE CTA while those suspected for AAS should still be triaged using TRO protocol.

Railway Wagon Market Analysis and New Multi-Purpose Wagon Solution for Freight Transports - Finnish Manufacturing Perspective

Rautateillä käytettävät tavaravaunut ovat vanhenemassa hyvin nopeasti; tämä koskee niin Venäjää, Suomea, Ruotsia kuin laajemminkin Eurooppaa. Venäjällä ja Euroopassa on käytössä runsaasti vaunuja, jotka ovat jo ylittäneet niille suositeltavan käyttöiän. Silti niitä käytetään kuljetuksissa, kun näitä korvaavia uusia vaunuja ei ole tarpeeksi saatavilla. Uusimmat vaunut ovat yleensä vaunuja vuokraavien yritysten tai uusien rautatieoperaattorien hankkimia - tämä koskee erityisesti Venäjää, jossa vaunuvuokraus on noussut erittäin suosituksi vaihtoehdoksi. Ennusteissa kerrotaan vaunupulan kasvavan ainakin vuoteen 2010 saakka. Jos rautateiden suosio rahtikuljetusmuotona kasvaa, niin voimistuva vaunukysyntä jatkuu huomattavan paljon pidemmän aikaa. Euroopan ja Venäjän vaunukannan tilanne näkyy myös sitä palvelevan konepajateollisuuden ongelmina - yleisesti ottaen alan eurooppalaiset yritykset ovat heikosti kannattavia ja niiden liikevaihto ei juuri kasva, venäläiset ja ukrainalaiset yritykset ovat olleet samassa tilanteessa, joskin aivan viime vuosina tilanne on osassa kääntynyt paremmaksi. Kun näiden maanosien yritysten liikevaihtoa, voittoa ja omistaja-arvoa verrataan yhdysvaltalaisiin kilpailijoihin, huomataan että jälkimmäisten suoriutuminen on huomattavan paljon parempaa, ja näillä yrityksillä on myös kyky maksaa osinkoja omistajilleen. Tutkimuksen tarkoituksena oli kehittää uuden tyyppinen kuljetusvaunu Suomen, Venäjän sekä mahdollisesti myös Kiinan väliseen liikenteeseen. Vaunutyypin tarkoituksena olisi kyetä toimimaan monikäyttöisenä, niin raaka-aineiden kuin konttienkin kuljetuksessa, tasapainottaen kuljetusmuotojen aiheuttamaa kuljetuspaino-ongelmaa. Kehitystyön pohjana käytimme yli 1000 venäläisen vaunutyypin tietokantaa, josta valitsimme Data Envelopment Analysis -menetelmällä soveliaimmat vaunut kontinkuljetukseen (lähemmin tarkastelimme n. 40 vaunutyyppiä), jättäen mahdollisimman vähän tyhjää tilaa junaan, mutta silti kyeten kantamaan valitun konttilastin. Kun kantokykyongelmia venäläisissä vaunuissa ei useinkaan ole, on vertailu tehtävissä tavarajunan pituuden ja kokonaispainon perusteella. Simuloituamme yhdistettyihin kuljetuksiin soveliasta vaunutyyppiä käytännössä löytyvässä kuljetusverkostossa (esim. raakapuuta Suomeen tai Kiinaan ja kontteja takaisin Venäjän suuntaan), huomasimme lyhemmän vaunupituuden sisältävän kustannusetua, erityisesti raakaainekuljetuksissa, mutta myös rajanylityspaikkojen mahdollisesti vähentyessä. Lyhempi vaunutyyppi on myös joustavampi erilaisten konttipituuksien suhteen (40 jalan kontin käyttö on yleistynyt viime vuosina). Työn lopuksi ehdotamme uuden vaunutyypin tuotantotavaksi verkostomaista lähestymistapaa, jossa osa vaunusta tehtäisiin Suomessa ja osa Venäjällä ja/tai Ukrainassa. Vaunutyypin tulisi olla rekisteröity Venäjälle, sillä silloin sitä voi käyttää Suomen ja Venäjän, kuten myös soveltuvin osin Venäjän ja Kiinan välisessä liikenteessä.