Essays on Omnichannel Sale

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

A Game of Horns: Transnational Flows of Rhino Horn

A multi-sectorial regime of protection including international treaties, conservation and security measures, demand reduction campaigns and quasi-military interventions has been established to protect rhinos. Despite these efforts, the poaching of rhinos and trafficking of rhino horn continue unabated. This dissertation asks why the illegal market in rhinoceros horn is so resilient in spite of the myriad measures employed to disrupt it. A theoretical approach grounded in the sociology of markets is applied to explain the structure and functioning of the illegal market. The project follows flows of rhino horn from the source in southern Africa to illegal markets in Southeast Asia. The multi-sited ethnography included participant observations, interviews and focus groups with 416 informants during fourteen months of fieldwork. The sample comprised of, amongst others, convicted and active rhino poachers, smugglers and kingpins, private rhino breeders and hunting outfitters, African and Asian law enforcement officials, as well as affected local communities and Asian consumers. Court files, CITES trade data, archival materials, newspaper reports and social media posts were also analysed to supplement findings and to verify and triangulate data from interviews, focus groups and observations. Central to the analysis is the concept of “contested illegality”, a legitimization mechanism employed by market participants along the different segments of the horn supply chain. These actors' implicit or explicit contestation of the state-sponsored label of illegality serves as a legitimising and enabling mechanism, facilitating participation in gray or illegal markets for rhino horn. The research identified fluid interfaces between legal, illegal and gray markets, with recurring actors who have access to transnational trade structures, and who also possess market and product knowledge, as well as information about the regulatory regime and its loopholes. It is against the background of colonial, apartheid and neoliberal exploitation and marginalization of local communities that a second argument is introduced: the path dependency of conservation paradigms. Underpinning rhino conservation and regulation are archaic and elitist conservation regimes that discount the potential for harmonious relationships between local communities and wildlife. The increasing militarization of anti-poaching measures and green land grabs are exacerbating the rhino problem by alienating communities further from conservation areas and wild animals. The third argument looks at how actors deal with coordination problems in transnational illegal markets. Resolving the coordination problems of cooperation, value and competition are considered essential to the operation of formal markets. It is argued that the problem of security provides an additional and crucial obstacle to actors transacting in markets. The systematic analysis of flows between the researched sites of production, distribution and consumption of rhino horn shows that the social embeddedness of actors facilitates the flourishing of illegal markets in ways that escape an effective enforcement of CITES regulations.

Timing ótimo para investir na proteção costeira na zona centro de Portugal

A presente dissertação insere-se no âmbito da gestão das zonas costeiras, que na atualidade enfrentam um grave problema de erosão. Este torna-se um problema social com especial importância devido à concentração populacional e atividade económica que se verifica nas regiões litorais. Neste contexto muitos têm sido os estudos físicos e económicos levados a cabo no sentido de encontrar soluções para lidar com este problema. O principal objetivo desta dissertação foi avaliar qual a importância que o timing em que é efetuado o investimento na proteção pode ter na defesa das zonas costeiras. Por outras palavras, perceber se existem ou não vantagens em adiar o investimento na proteção por um determinado período de tempo. Foi definida como área de estudo o trecho costeiro de 20 km compreendido entre a Praia da Barra (Aveiro) e a Praia de Mira (Coimbra). Através da utilização do modelo numérico Long-Term Configuration (LTC) foi simulada a evolução da linha de costa por um período de 80 anos, seguida de uma análise custo-benefício ambiental em que foi considerada a possibilidade de investimentos em estruturas de defesa (no caso desta dissertação esporões com 100m, 200m e 300m de comprimento) a serem efetuados após 0, 10, 20 ou 30 anos. Foram também contempladas restrições orçamentais, e ainda, efetuada uma análise de sensibilidade à taxa de desconto utilizada. Os resultados mostram que quanto mais cedo se iniciar proteção das zonas costeiras, mais benefícios económicos serão retirados desse investimento. Os cenários que se apresentaram como os mais vantajosos são aqueles em que o investimento é levado a cabo no Ano 0 e onde se opta por uma proteção integral ou quase integral da linha de costa. Ainda assim, em todos os timings de investimento analisados foi possível encontrar cenários economicamente viáveis e dos quais resultariam benefícios económicos. A análise com inclusão de restrições orçamentais mostra que a utilização destas deixa de fazer sentido à medida que o investimento é adiado, funcionando então o próprio retardar do investimento como uma medida de contenção orçamental. A análise de sensibilidade à taxa de desconto revelou que a opção por uma taxa de desconto de 4% acaba por não influenciar de maneira significativa os resultados obtidos.

There exists circularity between WACC and value? Another solution.

Although we know there exists a simple approach to solve the circularity between value and the discount rate, known as the Adjusted Present Value proposed by Myers, 1974, it seems that practitioners still rely on the traditional Weighted Average Cost of Capital, WACC approach of weighting the cost of debt, Kd and the cost of equity, Ke and discounting the Free Cash Flow, FCF. We show how to solve circularity when calculating value with the free cash flow, FCF and the WACC. As a result of the solution we arrive at a known solution when we assume the discount rate of the tax equity: the capital cash flow, CCF discounted at Ku. When assuming Kd as the discount rate for the tax savings, we find an expression for calculating value that does not implies circularity. We do this for a single period and for N periods.

Three Essays in Empirical Asset Pricing

The financial crisis of 2007-2008 led to extraordinary government intervention in firms and markets. The scope and depth of government action rivaled that of the Great Depression. Many traded markets experienced dramatic declines in liquidity leading to the existence of conditions normally assumed to be promptly removed via the actions of profit seeking arbitrageurs. These extreme events motivate the three essays in this work. The first essay seeks and fails to find evidence of investor behavior consistent with the broad 'Too Big To Fail' policies enacted during the crisis by government agents. Only in limited circumstances, where government guarantees such as deposit insurance or U.S. Treasury lending lines already existed, did investors impart a premium to the debt security prices of firms under stress. The second essay introduces the Inflation Indexed Swap Basis (IIS Basis) in examining the large differences between cash and derivative markets based upon future U.S. inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI). It reports the consistent positive value of this measure as well as the very large positive values it reached in the fourth quarter of 2008 after Lehman Brothers went bankrupt. It concludes that the IIS Basis continues to exist due to limitations in market liquidity and hedging alternatives. The third essay explores the methodology of performing debt based event studies utilizing credit default swaps (CDS). It provides practical implementation advice to researchers to address limited source data and/or small target firm sample size.

ASSESSING QUALITY IN HIGH-UNCERTAINTY MARKETS: ONLINE REVIEWS OF CREDENCE SERVICES

In economics of information theory, credence products are those whose quality is difficult or impossible for consumers to assess, even after they have consumed the product (Darby & Karni, 1973). This dissertation is focused on the content, consumer perception, and power of online reviews for credence services. Economics of information theory has long assumed, without empirical confirmation, that consumers will discount the credibility of claims about credence quality attributes. The same theories predict that because credence services are by definition obscure to the consumer, reviews of credence services are incapable of signaling quality. Our research aims to question these assumptions. In the first essay we examine how the content and structure of online reviews of credence services systematically differ from the content and structure of reviews of experience services and how consumers judge these differences. We have found that online reviews of credence services have either less important or less credible content than reviews of experience services and that consumers do discount the credibility of credence claims. However, while consumers rationally discount the credibility of simple credence claims in a review, more complex argument structure and the inclusion of evidence attenuate this effect. In the second essay we ask, “Can online reviews predict the worst doctors?” We examine the power of online reviews to detect low quality, as measured by state medical board sanctions. We find that online reviews are somewhat predictive of a doctor’s suitability to practice medicine; however, not all the data are useful. Numerical or star ratings provide the strongest quality signal; user-submitted text provides some signal but is subsumed almost completely by ratings. Of the ratings variables in our dataset, we find that punctuality, rather than knowledge, is the strongest predictor of medical board sanctions. These results challenge the definition of credence products, which is a long-standing construct in economics of information theory. Our results also have implications for online review users, review platforms, and for the use of predictive modeling in the context of information systems research.

The Relation between Substance Use and Medication Adherence among HIV Positive Substance Users in Residential Treatment

Poor medication adherence is problematic among HIV positive, low-income African-American substance users. Substance use has been shown to be associated with poor medication adherence, though we do not know the mechanism that underlies this relationship. Lack of positive environmental rewards and the propensity to discount delayed rewards may be possible mechanisms to explain this relationship. Using baseline data from a randomized controlled trial, we examined the relationships between substance use and medication adherence, testing both environmental rewards and delay discounting as independent mediators. There was a main effect of substance use on adherence, such that high frequency of substance use predicted poor adherence. There was also a main effect of environmental rewards on adherence, such that a lack of environmental reinforcement predicted poor adherence. This study shed light on the processes that contribute to low adherence, namely substance use and lack of environmental contingencies, and suggests important targets for intervention.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of apixaban compared to low-molecular-weight heparins and vitamin k antagonists for treatment and secondary prevention of venous thromboembolism

Objective: Cost-effectiveness analysis of a 6-month treatment of apixaban (10 mg/12h, first 7 days; 5 mg/12h afterwards) for the treatment of the first event of venous thromboembolism (VTE) and prevention of recurrences, versus low-molecular-weight heparins/vitamin K antagonists treatment (LMWH/VKA). Material and methods: A lifetime Markov model with 13 health states was used for describing the course of the disease. Efficacy and safety data were obtained from AMPLIFY and AMPLIFY-EXT clinical trials; health outcomes were measured as life years gained (LYG) and quality-adjusted life years (QALY). The chosen perspective of this analysis has been the Spanish National Health System (NHS). Drugs, management of VTE and complications costs were obtained from several Spanish data sources (€, 2014). A 3% discount rate was applied to health outcomes and costs. Univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (SA) were performed in order to assess the robustness of the results. Results: Apixaban was the most effective therapy with 7.182 LYG and 5.865 QALY, versus 7.160 LYG and 5.838 QALYs with LMWH/VKA. Furthermore, apixaban had a lower total cost (€13,374.70 vs €13,738.30). Probabilistic SA confirmed dominance of apixaban (led to better health outcomes with less associated costs) in 89% of the simulations. Conclusions: Apixaban 5 mg/12h versus LMWH/VKA was an efficient therapeutic strategy for the treatment and prevention of recurrences of VTE from the NHS perspective.

Equity research - Brisa

Mestrado em Finanças

Assistência na Doença aos Militares das Forças Armadas (ADM) – Que futuro?

Este trabalho tem por objetivo analisar a sustentabilidade da Assistência na Doença aos Militares (ADM), enquanto sistema autofinanciável. O autofinanciamento da ADM, com recurso exclusivo aos descontos efetuados pelos beneficiários, está, aparentemente em contradição com as disposições legais associadas à condição militar e isenta o Estado das suas obrigações. Esta é uma temática atual, cuja análise justifica um tratamento específico e singular, em consonância com as particularidades da condição militar, devendo, por isso, ser ponderados os diversos fatores condicionantes. Assim, partindo das despesas processadas pela ADM face às fontes de financiamento existentes, tentamos responder à questão central formulada - “Em que medida a ADM é sustentável e autofinanciável, com recurso exclusivo aos descontos dos beneficiários?”. Analisamos também se o regime optativo coloca em causa a sustentabilidade da ADM e em que medida esta decisão é condicionada pela perceção de que as disposições legais, relativas à condição militar, estão ou não a ser cumpridas. Concluímos que a ADM não é um sistema autofinanciável com recurso exclusivo aos descontos dos beneficiários, pelo menos por agora, pois suporta despesas que não são sua responsabilidade. Verificamos também que a maioria dos inquiridos, em caso de regime optativo, optaria por não descontar para a ADM, considerando o desconto elevado. Abstract: The Self-financing of the assistance in disease to Military (ADM) , with exclusive resource at the beneficiaries discounts , is disassociated from the military condition and relieves the State of its obligations. This is a current topic, whose analysis justifies specific and unique treatment in consonance with the characteristics of the military condition and should therefore be considered the various conditioning factors. This work aims to analyze the ADM sustainability, while a self-financing system. Thus, based on the expenses processed by ADM, as compared with existing funding sources, we try to answer the central question formulated - "To what extent ADM is sustainable and self-financing, with exclusive resource at the discounts of beneficiaries?". We also analysed if the optional regime puts into question the sustainability of ADM and to what extent this decision is conditioned by the perception that the legal provisions relating to the military condition, are being met or not. We conclude that ADM is not a self-financing system, with exclusive resource at the discounts of beneficiaries, at least for now and that supports expenses that are not their responsibility. We also verified that the majority of the inquired, would choose not discount for ADM, if optional regime is available, and considers the discount high.

Huambo Microbiology Laboratory : economical and financial viability

Mestrado em Finanças

Perpetual debt valuation: the net present value myopia

Would you prefer to receive a fixed rent for a period of 50 years, 75 years or perpetually? Well, if you have chosen the perpetual option, you are absolutely right. However, when considering a mathematical and financial approach, they may all end up roughly the same whenever the Net Present Value (NPV) is approximately identical. It makes common sense to choose the perpetual option even if the NPV exhibits myopia when computing the discount value of a fixed yearly rent. After a certain period, the discount value becomes approximately the same even when adding more yearly fixed rents. Corporations and governments issue perpetual bonds while recognizing these may not represent a very good financing strategy and thus implying that most of these issues are either callable or convertible on the issuer’s request. In approaching the existing perpetual debt related NPV myopia, this paper holds two main goals: firstly, we intend to study the behaviours of perpetual debt yields against other perpetual instruments and, secondly, we consider the financial methods for assessing the value of money before proposing a formula adjustment that might serve to overcome default NPV when evaluating fixed rents in perpetuity.

Determinants Of Firm Terminal Value: The Perspective Of North American And European Financial Analysts

Company valuation models attempt to estimate the value of a company in two stages: (1) comprising of a period of explicit analysis and (2) based on unlimited production period of cash flows obtained through a mathematical approach of perpetuity, which is the terminal value. In general, these models, whether they belong to the Dividend Discount Model (DDM), the Discount Cash Flow (DCF), or RIM (Residual Income Models) group, discount one attribute (dividends, free cash flow, or results) to a given discount rate. This discount rate, obtained in most cases by the CAPM (Capital asset pricing model) or APT (Arbitrage pricing theory) allows including in the analysis the cost of invested capital based on the risk taking of the attributes. However, one cannot ignore that the second stage of valuation that is usually 53-80% of the company value (Berkman et al., 1998) and is loaded with uncertainties. In this context, particular attention is needed to estimate the value of this portion of the company, under penalty of the assessment producing a high level of error. Mindful of this concern, this study sought to collect the perception of European and North American financial analysts on the key features of the company that they believe contribute most to its value. For this feat, we used a survey with closed answers. From the analysis of 123 valid responses using factor analysis, the authors conclude that there is great importance attached (1) to the life expectancy of the company, (2) to liquidity and operating performance, (3) to innovation and ability to allocate resources to R&D, and (4) to management capacity and capital structure, in determining the value of a company or business in long term. These results contribute to our belief that we can formulate a model for valuating companies and businesses where the results to be obtained in the evaluations are as close as possible to those found in the stock market

Perpetual debt valuation: the net present value myopia

Would you prefer to receive a fixed rent for a period of 50 years, 75 years or perpetually? Well, if you have chosen the perpetual option, you are absolutely right. However, when considering a mathematical and financial approach, they may all end up roughly the same whenever the Net Present Value (NPV) is approximately identical. It makes common sense to choose the perpetual option even if the NPV exhibits myopia when computing the discount value of a fixed yearly rent. After a certain period, the discount value becomes approximately the same even when adding more yearly fixed rents. Corporations and governments issue perpetual bonds while recognizing these may not represent a very good financing strategy and thus implying that most of these issues are either callable or convertible on the issuer’s request. In approaching the existing perpetual debt related NPV myopia, this paper holds two main goals: firstly, we intend to study the behaviours of perpetual debt yields against other perpetual instruments and, secondly, we consider the financial methods for assessing the value of money before proposing a formula adjustment that might serve to overcome default NPV when evaluating fixed rents in perpetuity.

Evaluación de costo efectividad de la profilaxis versus tratamiento a demanda en pacientes con Hemofilia A moderada y severa para prevenir sangrado articular de una aseguradora en Colombia

Introducción: En Colombia existe un protocolo de manejo para pacientes con hemofilia A severa sin inhibidores que recomienda el manejo de profilaxis primaria y secundaria con FVIII. Objetivos: Estimar la relación incremental de costo-efectividad (RICE) de la profilaxis con Factor VIII vs tratamiento a demanda para prevenir sangrados articulares en pacientes con hemofilia A moderada y severa de una aseguradora en Colombia. Materiales y Métodos: Se adaptó un modelo de Markov desde la perspectiva del tercer pagador. Las probabilidades de transición se ajustaron mediante un modelo de regresión logística multinomial explicadas por la edad y el peso. Las tasas de eventos son anuales. Las efectividades se extrajeron de la cohorte de la aseguradora y de la literatura. Los costos incluyeron el FVIII, medicamentos, hospitalización, procedimientos quirúrgicos, apoyo diagnóstico y consultas médicas. La tasa de descuento fue del 3%. Resultados: En pacientes con hemofilia A moderada y severa la profilaxis con FVIII evitará en promedio 7 sangrados articulares, el RICE para el sangrado articular es de $303.457. Conclusiones: La profilaxis con Factor VIII es una estrategia costo-efectiva en el manejo de pacientes con hemofilia A moderada y severa para la aseguradora, disminuyendo el número de sangrados articulares al año.