Evaluation Of Reservoir Model Integration With Deterministic And Probabilistic Streamflow Forecasts

Due to the increase in water demand and hydropower energy, it is getting more important to operate hydraulic structures in an efficient manner while sustaining multiple demands. Especially, companies, governmental agencies, consultant offices require effective, practical integrated tools and decision support frameworks to operate reservoirs, cascades of run-of-river plants and related elements such as canals by merging hydrological and reservoir simulation/optimization models with various numerical weather predictions, radar and satellite data. The model performance is highly related with the streamflow forecast, related uncertainty and its consideration in the decision making. While deterministic weather predictions and its corresponding streamflow forecasts directly restrict the manager to single deterministic trajectories, probabilistic forecasts can be a key solution by including uncertainty in flow forecast scenarios for dam operation. The objective of this study is to compare deterministic and probabilistic streamflow forecasts on an earlier developed basin/reservoir model for short term reservoir management. The study is applied to the Yuvacık Reservoir and its upstream basin which is the main water supply of Kocaeli City located in the northwestern part of Turkey. The reservoir represents a typical example by its limited capacity, downstream channel restrictions and high snowmelt potential. Mesoscale Model 5 and Ensemble Prediction System data are used as a main input and the flow forecasts are done for 2012 year using HEC-HMS. Hydrometeorological rule-based reservoir simulation model is accomplished with HEC-ResSim and integrated with forecasts. Since EPS based hydrological model produce a large number of equal probable scenarios, it will indicate how uncertainty spreads in the future. Thus, it will provide risk ranges in terms of spillway discharges and reservoir level for operator when it is compared with deterministic approach. The framework is fully data driven, applicable, useful to the profession and the knowledge can be transferred to other similar reservoir systems.

Joint dynamic probabilistic constraints with projected linear decision rules

We consider multistage stochastic linear optimization problems combining joint dynamic probabilistic constraints with hard constraints. We develop a method for projecting decision rules onto hard constraints of wait-and-see type. We establish the relation between the original (in nite dimensional) problem and approximating problems working with projections from di erent subclasses of decision policies. Considering the subclass of linear decision rules and a generalized linear model for the underlying stochastic process with noises that are Gaussian or truncated Gaussian, we show that the value and gradient of the objective and constraint functions of the approximating problems can be computed analytically.

IFTrace: Video segmentation of deformable objects using the Image Foresting Transform

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

ALGORITHM FOR PROBABILISTIC ANALYSIS of DISTRIBUTION SYSTEMS WITH DISTRIBUTED GENERATION

In this paper an efficient algorithm for probabilistic analysis of unbalanced three-phase weakly-meshed distribution systems is presented. This algorithm uses the technique of Two-Point Estimate Method for calculating the probabilistic behavior of the system random variables. Additionally, the deterministic analysis of the state variables is performed by means of a Compensation-Based Radial Load Flow (CBRLF). Such load flow efficiently exploits the topological characteristics of the network. To deal with distributed generation, a strategy to incorporate a simplified model of a generator in the CBRLF is proposed. Thus, depending on the type of control and generator operation conditions, the node with distributed generation can be modeled either as a PV or PQ node. To validate the efficiency of the proposed algorithm, the IEEE 37 bus test system is used. The probabilistic results are compared with those obtained using the Monte Carlo method.

Systematic analysis of the Fourier transform spectrum of (CH3OH)-C-13 between 400 and 950 cm(-1)

We have investigated a high-resolution Fourier transform (FT) absorption spectrum of the (CH3OH)-C-13 isotopomer of methanol from 400 to 950 cm(-1) with the Ritz program. We present the assignments of 7160 transitions, 3021 of which belong to Asymmetry, and 4139 to E-symmetry. These transitions occur between states labeled by K quantum numbers up to 14, and by torsional quantum numbers n up to 4. The Ritz program evaluated the energies of the 4684 involved levels with an accuracy of the order of 10(-4) cm(-1). All of the assigned lines correspond to transitions involving torsionally excited levels within the ground small-amplitude vibrational state. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assessment of maturity degree of composts from domestic solid wastes by fluorescence and fourier transform infrared spectroscopies

Methods of assessment of compost maturity are needed so the application of composted materials to lands will provide optimal benefits. The aim of the present paper is to assess the maturity reached by composts from domestic solid wastes (DSW) prepared under periodic and permanent aeration systems and sampled at different composting time, by means of excitation-emission matrix (EEM) fluorescence spectroscopy and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FT-IR). EEM spectra indicated the presence of two different fluorophores centered, respectively, at Ex/Em wavelength pairs of 330/425 and 280/330 nm. The fluorescence intensities of these peaks were also analyzed, showing trends related to the maturity of composts. The contour density of EEM maps appeared to be strongly reduced with composting days. After 30 and 45 days of composting, FT-IR spectra exhibited a decrease of intensity of peaks assigned to polysaccharides and in the aliphatic region. EEM and FT-IR techniques seem to produce spectra that correlate with the degree of maturity of the compost. Further refinement of these techniques should provide a relatively rapid method of assessing the suitability of the compost to land application.

A probabilistic model for elastic-plastic fracture analysis of plane and axisymmetric structures

This work presents a methodology for elastic-plastic fracture reliability analysis of plane and axisymmetric structures. The structural reliability analysis is accomplished by means of the FORM analytical method. The virtual crack extension technique based on a direct minimization of potencial energy is utililized for the calculation of the energy release rate. Results are presented to illustrate the performance of the adopted methodology.

DIODE-LASER AND FOURIER-TRANSFORM SPECTROSCOPY OF THE (CH3OH)-C-13 C-O STRETCHING MODE

In this work we present high resolution Doppler limited absorption spectra measurements of the C-O stretching mode of (CH3OH)-C-13, obtained from diode laser spectroscopy, and the Fourier Transform spectrum obtained at 0. 12 cm-1 resolution. By using these data and previously known spectroscopic information, we determined the frequency and the J quantum number for the multiplets of the P and R(J) branches of the C-O stretching fundamental band. Infrared transitions in coincidence with emission lines of the regular CO2 laser and some of its isotope parents are pointed out.

Probabilistic neural network to predict cracks in taphole mud used in blast furnaces

One of the major problems facing Blast Furnaces is the occurrence of cracks in taphole mud, as the underlying causes are not easily identifiable. The absence of this knowledge makes it difficult the use of conventional techniques for predictability and mitigation. This paper will address the application of Probabilistic Neural Network using the Matlab software as a means to detect and control such cracks. The most relevant BF operational variables were picked through the statistic tool "Principal Component Analysis - PCA." Based upon the selection of these variables a probabilistic neural network was built. A set of BF operational data, consisting of 30 controlling variables, was divided into 2 groups, one of which for network training, and the other one to validate the neural network. The neural network got 98% of the cases right. The results show the effectiveness of this tool for crack prediction in relation to clay intrinsic properties and as a result of the fluctuation in operational variables.

Symmetry transform in Faddeev-Jackiw quantization of dual models

We study the presence of symmetry transformations in the Faddeev-Jackiw approach for constrained systems. Our analysis is based in the case of a particle submitted to a particular potential which depends on an arbitrary function. The method is implemented in a natural way and symmetry generators are identified. These symmetries permit us to obtain the absent elements of the sympletic matrix which complement the set of Dirac brackets of such a theory. The study developed here is applied in two different dual models. First, we discuss the case of a two-dimensional oscillator interacting with an electromagnetic potential described by a Chern-Simons term and second the Schwarz-Sen gauge theory, in order to obtain the complete set of non-null Dirac brackets and the correspondent Maxwell electromagnetic theory limit. ©1999 The American Physical Society.

Common architecture for discrete wavelet transform analysis and synthesis with sequential and constant processing elements

This paper adresses the problem on processing biological data such as cardiac beats, audio and ultrasonic range, calculating wavelet coefficients in real time, with processor clock running at frequency of present ASIC's and FPGA. The Paralell Filter Architecture for DWT has been improved, calculating wavelet coefficients in real time with hardware reduced to 60%. The new architecture, which also processes IDWT, is implemented with the Radix-2 or the Booth-Wallace Constant multipliers. Including series memory register banks, one integrated circuit Signal Analyzer, ultrasonic range, is presented.

Discrete wavelet transform signal analyzer

This paper addresses the problem of processing biological data, such as cardiac beats in the audio and ultrasonic range, and on calculating wavelet coefficients in real time, with the processor clock running at a frequency of present application-specified integrated circuits and field programmable gate array. The parallel filter architecture for discrete wavelet transform (DWT) has been improved, calculating the wavelet coefficients in real time with hardware reduced up to 60%. The new architecture, which also processes inverse DWT, is implemented with the Radix-2 or the Booth-Wallace constant multipliers. One integrated circuit signal analyzer in the ultrasonic range, including series memory register banks, is presented. © 2007 IEEE.