Analysis of Earnings, Stock Prices and Bond Yields: The Fed Model Approach

Prediction of the stock market valuation is a common interest to all market participants. Theoretically sound market valuation can be achieved by discounting future earnings of equities to present. Competing valuation models seek to find variables that affect the equity market valuation in a way that the market valuation can be explained and also variables that could be used to predict market valuation. In this paper we test the contemporaneous relationship between stock prices, forward looking earnings and long-term government bond yields. We test this so-called Fed model in a long- and short-term time series analysis. In order to test the dynamics of the relationship, we use the cointegration framework. The data used in this study spans over four decades of various market conditions between 1964-2007, using data from United States. The empirical results of our analysis do not give support for the Fed model. We are able to show that the long-term government bonds do not play statistically significant role in this relationship. The effect of forward earnings yield on the stock market prices is significant and thus we suggest the use of standard valuation ratios when trying to predict the future paths of equity prices. Also, changes in the long-term government bond yields do not have significant short-term impact on stock prices.

Mergers and difference-in-difference estimator : why firms do not increase prices?

Difference-in-Difference (DiD) methods are being increasingly used to analyze the impact of mergers on pricing and other market equilibrium outcomes. Using evidence from an exogenous merger between two retail gasoline companies in a specific market in Spain, this paper shows how concentration did not lead to a price increase. In fact, the conjectural variation model concludes that the existence of a collusive agreement before and after the merger accounts for this result, rather than the existence of efficient gains. This result may explain empirical evidence reported in the literature according to which mergers between firms do not have significant effects on prices.

Does Rigidity of Prices Hide Collusion?

Cartel detection is one of the most basic and most complicated tasks of competition authorities. In recent years, however, variance filters have provided a fairly simple tool for rejecting the existence of price-fixing, with the added advantage that the methodology requires only a low volume of data. In this paper we analyze two aspects of variance filters: 1- the relationship established between market structure and price rigidity, and 2- the use of different benchmarks for implementing the filters. This paper addresses these two issues by applying a variance filter to a gasoline retail market characterized by a set of unique features. Our results confirm the positive relationship between monopolies and price rigidity, and the variance filter's ability to detect non-competitive behavior when an appropriate benchmark is used. Our findings should serve to promote the implementation of this methodology among competition authorities, albeit in the awareness that a more exhaustive complementary analysis is required.

Symmetric or asymmetric gasoline prices? A meta-analysis approach

The analysis of price asymmetries in the gasoline market is one of the most studied in the energy economics literature. Nevertheless, the great variability of results makes it very difficult to extract conclusive results on the existence or not of asymmetries. This paper shows through a meta-analysis approach how the industry segment analysed, the quality and quantity of data, the estimator and the model used may explain this heterogeneity of results.

The evolution and distribution of second-hand house prices in Barcelona

The aim of this study is to collect and analyze variables that could have a relationship with the second-hand house prices in Barcelona, as much disaggregated as possible from 2008 to 2011 and make a statistical analysis. The study consists of two parts. The first part is the preliminary study of the data and the second part is the econometric analysis of the data to see if there is any relationship between the second-hand house prices and the variables chosen. Finally, we looked at if there was any atypical observation and if the model presented multicollinarity. With all this information, we extract some conclusions and then, we analyzed more deeply the information.

HouSI: Heuristic for delimitation of housing submarkets and price homogeneous areas

This paper seeks to address the problem of the empirical identification of housing market segmentation,once we assume that submarkets exist. The typical difficulty in identifying housing submarkets when dealing with many locations is the vast number of potential solutions and, in such cases, the use of the Chow test for hedonic functions is not a practical solution. Here, we solve this problem by undertaking an identification process with a heuristic for spatially constrained clustering, the"Housing Submarket Identifier" (HouSI). The solution is applied to the housing market in the city of Barcelona (Spain), where we estimate a hedonic model for fifty thousand dwellings aggregated into ten groups. In order to determine the utility of the procedure we seek to verify whether the final solution provided by the heuristic is comparable with the division of the city into ten administrative districts.

Prices versus exams as strategic instruments for competing universities

In this paper we investigate the optimal choice of prices and/or exams by universities in the presence of credit constraints. We first compare the optimal behavior of a public, welfare maximizing, monopoly and a private, profit maximizing, monopoly. Then we model competition between a public and a private institution and investigate the new role of exams/prices in this environment. We find that, under certain circumstances, the public university may have an interest to raise tuition fees from minimum levels if it cares for global welfare. This will be the case provided that (i) the private institution has higher quality and uses only prices to select applicants, or (ii) the private institution has lower quality and uses also exams to select students. When this is the case, there are efficiency grounds for raising public prices

Analysis of outliers in electricity spot prices with exampleof New England and New Zealand markets

Electricity spot prices have always been a demanding data set for time series analysis, mostly because of the non-storability of electricity. This feature, making electric power unlike the other commodities, causes outstanding price spikes. Moreover, the last several years in financial world seem to show that ’spiky’ behaviour of time series is no longer an exception, but rather a regular phenomenon. The purpose of this paper is to seek patterns and relations within electricity price outliers and verify how they affect the overall statistics of the data. For the study techniques like classical Box-Jenkins approach, series DFT smoothing and GARCH models are used. The results obtained for two geographically different price series show that patterns in outliers’ occurrence are not straightforward. Additionally, there seems to be no rule that would predict the appearance of a spike from volatility, while the reverse effect is quite prominent. It is concluded that spikes cannot be predicted based only on the price series; probably some geographical and meteorological variables need to be included in modeling.

The effect on prices of the attributes of holiday hotels: a hedonic prices approach

This article examines the effect on price of different characteristics of holiday hotels in the sun-and-beach segment. The effect on price is estimated under the hedonic function perspective by means of random effect models, known also as mixed or panel models. Some 82,000 prices were gathered between 1991 and 1998 from tour operator catalogues. The study reveals huge price differences between 4-star hotels and the rest, coupled with practically no difference between 1-star and 2-star hotels. Other attributes with a significant effect on price are town, hotel size, distance to the beach and availability of parking place. The results can assist hotel managers in shaping pricing and investment strategies

Comparing service contract prices of outsourcing partner

The main objective of this Master’s thesis is to find out which one of the two pricing models is the most cost-effective. In this thesis there are two companies that have made an outsourcing contract, in which they have a possibility to choose between two different pricing models. The first model is so called FTE (Full Time Employee) -based. The total cost will be based on the amount of outsourced person-workyears. The second pricing model is the transaction-based, in which the price will be formed according to the amount of transactions. Changing the pricing model from FTE-based to the transaction-based will also incur other costs. It is very important that these other costs are also taken into consideration, so that it is possible to determine the total costs of the pricing models. These other costs are direct costs, indirect costs and performance related costs of outsourcing. Activity based-costing (ABC) was used in order to find out the trues indirect costs of the outsourced processes. Performance related costs are related to quality, so Pareto-analysis was used to analyse the costs. Based on all of that, a framework for service related cost analysis was developed. Quality costs were almost impossible to quantify, so quality had to be taken into consideration in a qualitative way. Furthermore, considering only the indirect and direct costs in a quantitative way and quality costs in a qualitative way, it was possible to find a conditional solution for the research question.

A comparison of electricity spot prices simulation using ARMA-GARCH and mean-reverting models

The aim of this work is to compare two families of mathematical models for their respective capability to capture the statistical properties of real electricity spot market time series. The first model family is ARMA-GARCH models and the second model family is mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck models. These two models have been applied to two price series of Nordic Nord Pool spot market for electricity namely to the System prices and to the DenmarkW prices. The parameters of both models were calibrated from the real time series. After carrying out simulation with optimal models from both families we conclude that neither ARMA-GARCH models, nor conventional mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck models, even when calibrated optimally with real electricity spot market price or return series, capture the statistical characteristics of the real series. But in the case of less spiky behavior (System prices), the mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model could be seen to partially succeeded in this task.

Asuntosijoittaminen: demografisten ja taloudellisten muuttujien vaikutus asuntojen hinta- ja vuokrakehitykseen Suomessa

Tutkielman tavoitteena on tehdä katsaus asuntosijoittamiseen sekä löytää asuntosijoittajalle tärkeää tietoa asuntojen hinta- ja vuokrakehitykseen vaikuttavista alueellisista tekijöistä. Asuntojen hintoihin vaikuttavia tekijöitä tutkitaan sekä kasvukaupungeissa että rakennemuutosalueilla. Asuntojen vuokrakehitykseen vaikuttavia selittäviä tekijöitä tutkitaan koko Suomen, pääkaupunkiseudun ja muun Suomen alueilla. Tutkimus toteutetaan käyttäen lineaarista regressioanalyysiä ja käytettävä aineisto koostuu muuttujien aikasarjoista vuosilta 1988–2010 sekä 1996–2009. Saatujen tulosten perusteella nettokansantulolla ja asuntokunnan käytet-tävissä olevalla rahatulolla on selkeä vaikutus asuntojen hintakehitykseen kasvukeskuksissa. Rakennemuutosalueilla työllisyyden ja teollisuuden vaikutukset ovat vahvoja. Asuntojen vuokriin vaikuttavista tekijöistä mm. asuinkerrostalokannalla, aloittaneiden yritysten määrällä ja asuntokunnan käytettävissä olevalla rahatulolla voidaan nähdä olevan selkeä vaikutus neliövuokran kehitykseen.

Physiological evaluation of heat stress in gestating sows under different housing systems in bedding and concrete floor

The purpose of this paper was to observe the use of bedding (wood shavings) in physiological variables that indicate thermal stress in gestating sows. The experiment was conducted in order to evaluate the effect of two types of floor (concrete and wood shavings). Worse microclimatic conditions were observed in bedding systems (P<0.05), with an increase in temperature and enthalpy of 1.14 ºC and 2.37 kJ.kg dry air-1, respectively. The floor temperature at the dirty area was higher in the bedding presence in comparison to its absence. In spite of the worse microclimatic conditions in the bedding, the rectal temperature did not differ significantly (P>0.05) but the skin surface temperature was higher in the bedding systems. The same occurred with the respiratory rates. The physical characteristics of the floor material influenced the rate of heat loss by conductance. Estimated values were 35.04 and 7.99 W m-2 for the conductive heat loss between the animal and floor for treatments with or without bedding, respectively. The use of bedding in sow rearing has a negative impact on microclimatic conditions, what implies in thermoregulatory damages.