Bayesian multinomial logit: Theory and route choice example

Statisticians along with other scientists have made significant computational advances that enable the estimation of formerly complex statistical models. The Bayesian inference framework combined with Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation methods such as the Gibbs sampler enable the estimation of discrete choice models such as the multinomial logit (MNL) model. MNL models are frequently applied in transportation research to model choice outcomes such as mode, destination, or route choices or to model categorical outcomes such as crash outcomes. Recent developments allow for the modification of the potentially limiting assumptions of MNL such as the independence from irrelevant alternatives (IIA) property. However, relatively little transportation-related research has focused on Bayesian MNL models, the tractability of which is of great value to researchers and practitioners alike. This paper addresses MNL model specification issues in the Bayesian framework, such as the value of including prior information on parameters, allowing for nonlinear covariate effects, and extensions to random parameter models, so changing the usual limiting IIA assumption. This paper also provides an example that demonstrates, using route-choice data, the considerable potential of the Bayesian MNL approach with many transportation applications. This paper then concludes with a discussion of the pros and cons of this Bayesian approach and identifies when its application is worthwhile

The relationship between substrate metabolism, exercise and appetite control : does glycogen availability influence the motivation to eat, energy intake or food choice?

The way in which metabolic fuels are utilised can alter the expression of behaviour in the interests of regulating energy balance and fuel availability. This is consistent with the notion that the regulation of appetite is a psychobiological process, in which physiological mediators act as drivers of behaviour. The glycogenostatic theory suggests that glycogen availability is central in eliciting negative feedback signals to restore energy homeostasis. Due to its limited storage capacity, carbohydrate availability is tightly regulated and its restoration is a high metabolic priority following depletion. It has been proposed that such depletion may act as a biological cue to stimulate compensatory energy intake in an effort to restore availability. Due to the increased energy demand, aerobic exercise may act as a biological cue to trigger compensatory eating as a result of perturbations to muscle and liver glycogen stores. However, studies manipulating glycogen availability over short-term periods (1-3 days) using exercise, diet or both have often produced equivocal findings. There is limited but growing evidence to suggest that carbohydrate balance is involved in the short-term regulation of food intake, with a negative carbohydrate balance having been shown to predict greater ad libitum feeding. Furthermore, a negative carbohydrate balance has been shown to be predictive of weight gain. However, further research is needed to support these findings as the current research in this area is limited. In addition, the specific neural or hormonal signal through which carbohydrate availability could regulate energy intake is at present unknown. Identification of this signal or pathway is imperative if a casual relationship is to be established. Without this, the possibility remains that the associations found between carbohydrate balance and food intake are incidental.

Effect of cabin ventilation rate on ultrafine particle exposure inside automobiles

We alternately measured on-road and in-vehicle ultrafine (<100 nm) particle (UFP) concentration for 5 passenger vehicles that comprised an age range of 18 years. A range of cabin ventilation settings were assessed during 301 trips through a 4 km road tunnel in Sydney, Australia. Outdoor airflow(ventilation) rates under these settings were quantified on open roads using tracer gas techniques. Significant variability in tunnel trip average median in-cabin/on-road (I/O) UFP ratios was observed (0.08 to ∼1.0). Based on data spanning all test automobiles and ventilation settings, a positive linear relationship was found between outdoor air flow rate and I/O ratio, with the former accounting for a substantial proportion of variation in the latter (R2 ) 0.81). UFP concentrations recorded in cabin during tunnel travel were significantly higher than those reported by comparable studies performed on open roadways. A simple mathematical model afforded the ability to predict tunnel trip average in-cabin UFP concentrations with good accuracy. Our data indicate that under certain conditions, in-cabin UFP exposures incurred during tunnel travel may contribute significantly to daily exposure. The UFP exposure of automobile occupants appears strongly related to their choice of ventilation setting and vehicle.

“Entrepreneurial management” as a strategic choice in firm behavior : linking it with performance

Establishing the core principals of “entrepreneurial management” within an organization describes a certain strategic choice that affects a company in six dimensions, according to Stevenson (1983). Our aim is to empirically measure entrepreneurial management (it’s existence and degree) and to link this measured strategic choice (for or against) entrepreneurial management with firm performance. Our argument here is that companies that follow core principals of entrepreneurial management should outperform other more administrative firms in certain measures of strategic performance. This paper builds on an empirical investigation published by Brown, Davidson & Wiklund (2001), who have developed and tested a reliable measurement instrument for Stevenson’s definition of “entrepreneurial management” (Stevenson 1983, Stevenson & Jarillo 1990). In the first part of our paper we aim to replicate and to some extent improve this study. In the second part we link the measured degree of “entrepreneurial management” with firm performance. To our knowledge, even so Stevenson’s definition of entrepreneurial management is commonly acknowledged and Brown et al. (2001) developed a reliable instrument to empirically capture this behavioral approach to management, the construct of entrepreneurial management never before has been linked to firm performance in an empirical study. Since most papers on corporate entrepreneurship and firm performance are based on Covin & Slevin’s (1991) or Miller’s (1983) concept of entrepreneurial orientation, we contribute to the literature on corporate entrepreneurship in a novel way, given the fact that the entrepreneurial management dimensions measured in our study can theoretically and empirically be clearly distinguished from the construct of entrepreneurial orientation as defined by Covin & Selvin (1991).

Assessment of pile driving refusal using the standard test (SPT)

The design of driven pile foundations involves an iterative process requiring an initial estimate of the refusal level to determine the depth of boreholes for subsequent analyses. Current procedures for determining borehole depths incorporate parameters typically unknown at the investigation stage. Thus, a quantifiable procedure more applicable at this preliminary stage would provide greater confidence in estimating the founding level of driven piles. This paper examines the effectiveness of the Standard Penetration Test (SPT) in directly estimating driven pile refusal levels. A number of significant correlations were obtained between SPT information and pile penetration records demonstrating the potential application of the SPT. Results indicated pile penetration was generally best described as a function of both the pile toe and cumulative shaft SPT values. The influence of the toe SPT increased when piles penetrated rock. A refusal criteria was established from the results to guide both the estimation of borehole depths and likely pile lengths during the design stage.

Smart Grid Test Bed Design and Implementation

Given there is currently a migration trend from traditional electrical supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) systems towards a smart grid based approach to critical infrastructure management. This project provides an evaluation of existing and proposed implementations for both traditional electrical SCADA and smart grid based architectures, and proposals a set of reference requirements which test bed implementations should implement. A high-level design for smart grid test beds is proposed and initial implementation performed, based on the proposed design, using open source and freely available software tools. The project examines the move towards smart grid based critical infrastructure management and illustrates the increased security requirements. The implemented test bed provides a basic framework for testing network requirements in a smart grid environment, as well as a platform for further research and development. Particularly to develop, implement and test network security related disturbances such as intrusion detection and network forensics. The project undertaken proposes and develops an architecture of the emulation of some smart grid functionality. The Common Open Research Emulator (CORE) platform was used to emulate the communication network of the smart grid. Specifically CORE was used to virtualise and emulate the TCP/IP networking stack. This is intended to be used for further evaluation and analysis, for example the analysis of application protocol messages, etc. As a proof of concept, software libraries were designed, developed and documented to enable and support the design and development of further smart grid emulated components, such as reclosers, switches, smart meters, etc. As part of the testing and evaluation a Modbus based smart meter emulator was developed to provide basic functionality of a smart meter. Further code was developed to send Modbus request messages to the emulated smart meter and receive Modbus responses from it. Although the functionality of the emulated components were limited, it does provide a starting point for further research and development. The design is extensible to enable the design and implementation of additional SCADA protocols. The project also defines an evaluation criteria for the evaluation of the implemented test bed, and experiments are designed to evaluate the test bed according to the defined criteria. The results of the experiments are collated and presented, and conclusions drawn from the results to facilitate discussion on the test bed implementation. The discussion undertaken also present possible future work.

Differences between in vitro viability and differentiation and in vivo bone-forming efficacy of human mesenchymal stem cells cultured on PCL-TCP scaffolds

Human mesenchymal stem cells (hMSCs) possess great therapeutic potential for the treatment of bone disease and fracture non-union. Too often however, in vitro evidence alone of the interaction between hMSCs and the biomaterial of choice is used as justification for continued development of the material into the clinic. Clearly for hMSC-based regenerative medicine to be successful for the treatment of orthopaedic trauma, it is crucial to transplant hMSCs with a suitable carrier that facilitates their survival, optimal proliferation and osteogenic differentiation in vitro and in vivo. This motivated us to evaluate the use of polycaprolactone-20% tricalcium phosphate (PCL-TCP) scaffolds produced by fused deposition modeling for the delivery of hMSCs. When hMSCs were cultured on the PCL-TCP scaffolds and imaged by a combination of phase contrast, scanning electron and confocal laser microscopy, we observed five distinct stages of colonization over a 21-day period that were characterized by cell attachment, spreading, cellular bridging, the formation of a dense cellular mass and the accumulation of a mineralized extracellular matrix when induced with osteogenic stimulants. Having established that PCL-TCP scaffolds are able to support hMSC proliferation and osteogenic differentiation, we next tested the in vivo efficacy of hMSC-loaded PCL-TCP scaffolds in nude rat critical-sized femoral defects. We found that fluorescently labeled hMSCs survived in the defect site for up to 3 weeks post-transplantation. However, only 50% of the femoral defects treated with hMSCs responded favorably as determined by new bone volume. As such, we show that verification of hMSC viability and differentiation in vitro is not sufficient to predict the efficacy of transplanted stem cells to consistently promote bone formation in orthotopic defects in vivo.

Corneal confocal microscopy : a novel noninvasive test to diagnose and stratify the severity of human diabetic neuropathy

OBJECTIVE: The accurate quantification of human diabetic neuropathy is important to define at-risk patients, anticipate deterioration, and assess new therapies. ---------- RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: A total of 101 diabetic patients and 17 age-matched control subjects underwent neurological evaluation, neurophysiology tests, quantitative sensory testing, and evaluation of corneal sensation and corneal nerve morphology using corneal confocal microscopy (CCM). ---------- RESULTS: Corneal sensation decreased significantly (P = 0.0001) with increasing neuropathic severity and correlated with the neuropathy disability score (NDS) (r = 0.441, P < 0.0001). Corneal nerve fiber density (NFD) (P < 0.0001), nerve fiber length (NFL), (P < 0.0001), and nerve branch density (NBD) (P < 0.0001) decreased significantly with increasing neuropathic severity and correlated with NDS (NFD r = −0.475, P < 0.0001; NBD r = −0.511, P < 0.0001; and NFL r = −0.581, P < 0.0001). NBD and NFL demonstrated a significant and progressive reduction with worsening heat pain thresholds (P = 0.01). Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis for the diagnosis of neuropathy (NDS >3) defined an NFD of <27.8/mm2 with a sensitivity of 0.82 (95% CI 0.68–0.92) and specificity of 0.52 (0.40–0.64) and for detecting patients at risk of foot ulceration (NDS >6) defined a NFD cutoff of <20.8/mm2 with a sensitivity of 0.71 (0.42–0.92) and specificity of 0.64 (0.54–0.74). ---------- CONCLUSIONS: CCM is a noninvasive clinical technique that may be used to detect early nerve damage and stratify diabetic patients with increasing neuropathic severity. Established diabetic neuropathy leads to pain and foot ulceration. Detecting neuropathy early may allow intervention with treatments to slow or reverse this condition (1). Recent studies suggested that small unmyelinated C-fibers are damaged early in diabetic neuropathy (2–4) but can only be detected using invasive procedures such as sural nerve biopsy (4,5) or skin-punch biopsy (6–8). Our studies have shown that corneal confocal microscopy (CCM) can identify early small nerve fiber damage and accurately quantify the severity of diabetic neuropathy (9–11). We have also shown that CCM relates to intraepidermal nerve fiber loss (12) and a reduction in corneal sensitivity (13) and detects early nerve fiber regeneration after pancreas transplantation (14). Recently we have also shown that CCM detects nerve fiber damage in patients with Fabry disease (15) and idiopathic small fiber neuropathy (16) when results of electrophysiology tests and quantitative sensory testing (QST) are normal. In this study we assessed corneal sensitivity and corneal nerve morphology using CCM in diabetic patients stratified for the severity of diabetic neuropathy using neurological evaluation, electrophysiology tests, and QST. This enabled us to compare CCM and corneal esthesiometry with established tests of diabetic neuropathy and define their sensitivity and specificity to detect diabetic patients with early neuropathy and those at risk of foot ulceration.

Destination positioning opportunities elicited through the repertory test with laddering analysis

While in many travel situations consumers have an almost limitless range of destinations to choose from, their actual decision set will usually only comprise between two and six destinations. One of the greatest challenges facing destination marketers is positioning their destination, against the myriad of competing places that offer similar features, into consumer decision sets. Since positioning requires a narrow focus, marketing communications must present a succinct and meaningful proposition, the selection of which is often problematic for destination marketing organisations (DMO), which deal with a diverse and often eclectic range of attributes in addition to numerous self-interested and demanding stakeholders. This paper reports the application of two qualitative techniques used to explore the range of cognitive attributes, consequences and personal values that represent potential positioning opportunities in the context of short break holidays. The Repertory Test is an effective technique for understanding the salient attributes used by a traveller to differentiate destinations, while Laddering Analysis enables the researcher to explore the smaller set of personal values guiding such decision making. A key finding of the research was that while individuals might vary in their repertoire of salient attributes, there was a commonality of shared consequences and values.

A measurement instrument for process modeling research : development, test and procedural model

Process modeling is an emergent area of Information Systems research that is characterized through an abundance of conceptual work with little empirical research. To fill this gap, this paper reports on the development and validation of an instrument to measure user acceptance of process modeling grammars. We advance an extended model for a multi-stage measurement instrument development procedure, which incorporates feedback from both expert and user panels. We identify two main contributions: First, we provide a validated measurement instrument for the study of user acceptance of process modeling grammars, which can be used to assist in further empirical studies that investigate phenomena associated with the business process modeling domain. Second, in doing so, we describe in detail a procedural model for developing measurement instruments that ensures high levels of reliability and validity, which may assist fellow scholars in executing their empirical research.

A test of podcasting effectiveness for lecture revision

It is important to understand how student performance when higher education is delivered by via new technology. Podcasting is a relatively recent new technology gaining widespread use across the world. We present the results of a quasi-experimental research project that finds when podcasts are used as a revision tool, student performance in Accounting improves. We highlight that aligning podcast use with pedagological design is important and discuss constraints on and barriers to the use of podcasting in higher education.

Is a mango just a mango? Testing within-fruit oviposition site choice and larval performance of a highly polyphagous fruit fly

For fruit flies, fully ripe fruit is preferred for adult oviposition and is superior for offspring performance over unripe or ripening fruit. Because not all parts of a single fruit ripen simultaneously, the opportunity exists for adult fruit flies to selectively choose riper parts of a fruit for oviposition and such selection, if it occurs, could positively influence offspring performance. Such fine scale host variation is rarely considered in fruit fly ecology, however, especially for polyphagous species which are, by definition, considered to be generalist host users. Here we study the adult oviposition preference/larval performance relationship of the Oriental fruit fly, Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel) (Diptera: Tephritidae), a highly polyphagous pest species, at the “within-fruit” level to see if such a host use pattern occurs. We recorded the number of oviposition attempts that female flies made into three fruit portions (top, middle and bottom), and larval behavior and development within different fruit portions for ripening (color change) and fully-ripe mango, Mangifera indica L. (Anacardiaceae). Results indicate that female B. dorsalis do not oviposit uniformly across a mango fruit, but lay most often in the top (i.e., stalk end) of fruit and least in the bottom portion, regardless of ripening stage. There was no evidence of larval feeding site preference or performance (development time, pupal weight, percent pupation) being influenced by fruit portion, within or across the fruit ripening stages. There was, however, a very significant effect on adult emergence rate from pupae, with adult emergence rate from pupae from the bottom of ripening mango being approximately only 50% of the adult emergence rate from the top of ripening fruit, or from both the top and bottom of fully-ripe fruit. Differences in mechanical (firmness) and chemical (total soluble solids, titratable acidity, total non-structural carbohydrates) traits between different fruit portions were correlated with adult fruit utilisation. Our results support a positive adult preference/offspring performance relationship at within-fruit level for B. dorsalis. The fine level of host discrimination exhibited by B. dorsalis is at odds with the general perception that, as a polyphagous herbivore, the fly should show very little discrimination in its host use behavior.

A controlled rapid approach to curriculum change : addressing the pressures of increased test-based accountability on schools

Increasingly, large amounts of public and private money are being invested in education and as a result, schools are becoming more accountable to stakeholders for this financial input. In terms of the curriculum, governments worldwide are frequently tying school funding to students‟ and schools‟ academic performances, which are monitored through high-stakes testing programs. To accommodate the resultant pressures from these testing initiatives, many principals are re-focussing their school‟s curriculum on the testing requirements. Such a re-focussing, which was examined critically in this thesis, constituted an externally facilitated rapid approach to curriculum change. In line with previously enacted change theories and recommendations from these, curriculum change in schools has tended to be a fairly slow, considered, collaborative process that is facilitated internally by a deputy-principal (curriculum). However, theoretically based research has shown that such a process has often proved to be difficult and very rarely successful. The present study reports and theorises the experiences of an externally facilitated process that emerged from a practitioner model of change. This case study of the development of the controlled rapid approach to curriculum change began by establishing the reasons three principals initiated curriculum change and why they then engaged an outsider to facilitate the process. It also examined this particular change process from the perspectives of the research participants. The investigation led to the revision of the practitioner model as used in the three schools and challenged the current thinking about the process of school curriculum change. The thesis aims to offer principals and the wider education community an alternative model for consideration when undertaking curriculum change. Finally, the thesis warns that, in the longer term, the application of study‟s revised model (the Controlled Rapid Approach to Curriculum Change [CRACC] Model) may have less then desirable educational consequences.

A test of the job demands : resources model with HIV/AIDS volunteers

Burnout has been identified as a significant factor in HIV/AIDS volunteering. It has been associated with depression, anxiety and the loss of volunteers from the health care delivery system. The aim of this study was to test the independence of the health and motivational processes hypothesized within the Job Demands – Resources model of burnout in HIV/AIDS volunteers. Participants were 307 HIV/AIDS volunteers from state AIDS Councils throughout Australia who completed self-report measures pertaining to role ambiguity and role conflict, social support, burnout, intrinsic and organizational satisfaction, and depression. Findings suggested that the independence of the dual processes hypothesized by the model was only partially supported. These findings provide a model for burnout which gives a framework for interventions at both the individual and organizational level which would contribute to the prevention of burnout, depression, and job dissatisfaction in HIV/AIDS volunteers.

Assessing the impact of transit and personal characteristics on mode choice of TOD users

Comparison are required to understand transport benefits of Transit Oriented Developments (TODs). Mode shares of TOD users need to be understood. Accurate travel demand models for TODs are needed.