951 resultados para Upper bound estimate
Resumo:
Apresentamos três novos métodos estáveis de inversão gravimétrica para estimar o relevo de uma interface arbitrária separando dois meios. Para a garantia da estabilidade da solução, introduzimos informações a priori sobre a interface a ser mapeada, através da minimização de um (ou mais) funcional estabilizante. Portanto, estes três métodos se diferenciam pelos tipos de informação físico-geológica incorporados. No primeiro método, denominado suavidade global, as profundidades da interface são estimadas em pontos discretos, presumindo-se o conhecimento a priori sobre o contraste de densidade entre os meios. Para a estabilização do problema inverso introduzimos dois vínculos: (a) proximidade entre as profundidades estimadas e verdadeiras da interface em alguns pontos fornecidas por furos de sondagem; e (b) proximidade entre as profundidades estimadas em pontos adjacentes. A combinação destes dois vínculos impõe uma suavidade uniforme a toda interface estimada, minimizando, simultaneamente em alguns pontos, os desajustes entre as profundidades conhecidas pelas sondagens e as estimadas nos mesmos pontos. O segundo método, denominado suavidade ponderada, estima as profundidades da interface em pontos discretos, admitindo o conhecimento a priori do contraste de densidade. Neste método, incorpora-se a informação geológica que a interface é suave, exceto em regiões de descontinuidades produzidas por falhas, ou seja, a interface é predominantemente suave porém localmente descontínua. Para a incorporação desta informação, desenvolvemos um processo iterativo em que três tipos de vínculos são impostos aos parâmetros: (a) ponderação da proximidade entre as profundidades estimadas em pontos adjacentes; (b) limites inferior e superior para as profundidades; e (c) proximidade entre todas as profundidades estimadas e um valor numérico conhecido. Inicializando com a solução estimada pelo método da suavidade global, este segundo método, iterativamente, acentua as feições geométricas presentes na solução inicial; ou seja, regiões suaves da interface tendem a tornar-se mais suaves e regiões abruptas tendem a tornar-se mais abruptas. Para tanto, este método atribui diferentes pesos ao vínculo de proximidade entre as profundidades adjacentes. Estes pesos são automaticamente atualizados de modo a acentuar as descontinuidades sutilmente detectadas pela solução da suavidade global. Os vínculos (b) e (c) são usados para compensar a perda da estabilidade, devida à introdução de pesos próximos a zero em alguns dos vínculos de proximidade entre parâmetros adjacentes, e incorporar a informação a priori que a região mais profunda da interface apresenta-se plana e horizontal. O vínculo (b) impõe, de modo estrito, que qualquer profundidade estimada é não negativa e menor que o valor de máxima profundidade da interface conhecido a priori; o vínculo (c) impõe que todas as profundidades estimadas são próximas a um valor que deliberadamente viola a profundidade máxima da interface. O compromisso entre os vínculos conflitantes (b) e (c) resulta na tendenciosidade da solução final em acentuar descontinuidades verticais e apresentar uma estimativa suave e achatada da região mais profunda. O terceiro método, denominado mínimo momento de inércia, estima os contrastes de densidade de uma região da subsuperfície discretizada em volumes elementares prismáticos. Este método incorpora a informação geológica que a interface a ser mapeada delimita uma fonte anômala que apresenta dimensões horizontais maiores que sua maior dimensão vertical, com bordas mergulhando verticalmente ou em direção ao centro de massa e que toda a massa (ou deficiência de massa) anômala está concentrada, de modo compacto, em torno de um nível de referência. Conceitualmente, estas informações são introduzidas pela minimização do momento de inércia das fontes em relação ao nível de referência conhecido a priori. Esta minimização é efetuada em um subespaço de parâmetros consistindo de fontes compactas e apresentando bordas mergulhando verticalmente ou em direção ao centro de massa. Efetivamente, estas informações são introduzidas através de um processo iterativo inicializando com uma solução cujo momento de inércia é próximo a zero, acrescentando, em cada iteração, uma contribuição com mínimo momento de inércia em relação ao nível de referência, de modo que a nova estimativa obedeça a limites mínimo e máximo do contraste de densidade, e minimize, simultaneamente, os desajustes entre os dados gravimétricos observados e ajustados. Adicionalmente, o processo iterativo tende a "congelar" as estimativas em um dos limites (mínimo ou máximo). O resultado final é uma fonte anômala compactada em torno do nível de referência cuja distribuição de constraste de densidade tende ao limite superior (em valor absoluto) estabelecido a priori. Estes três métodos foram aplicados a dados sintéticos e reais produzidos pelo relevo do embasamento de bacias sedimentares. A suavidade global produziu uma boa reconstrução do arcabouço de bacias que violam a condição de suavidade, tanto em dados sintéticos como em dados da Bacia do Recôncavo. Este método, apresenta a menor resolução quando comparado com os outros dois métodos. A suavidade ponderada produziu uma melhoria na resolução de relevos de embasamentos que apresentam falhamentos com grandes rejeitos e altos ângulos de mergulho, indicando uma grande potencialidade na interpretação do arcabouço de bacias extensionais, como mostramos em testes com dados sintéticos e dados do Steptoe Valley, Nevada, EUA, e da Bacia do Recôncavo. No método do mínimo momento de inércia, tomou-se como nível de referência o nível médio do terreno. As aplicações a dados sintéticos e às anomalias Bouguer do Graben de San Jacinto, California, EUA, e da Bacia do Recôncavo mostraram que, em comparação com os métodos da suavidade global e ponderada, este método estima com excelente resolução falhamentos com pequenos rejeitos sem impor a restrição da interface apresentar poucas descontinuidades locais, como no método da suavidade ponderada.
Resumo:
The purpose of this paper was to evaluate the agreement among different methods used to estimate angular deviation of the body to determine the risk for development of upper limb musculoskeletal disorders in dentistry undergraduates. Materials and Methods: Students (n = 79) enrolled in the final year undergraduate course of the Araraquara School of Dentistry-Sγo Paulo State University-UNESP were evaluated. Photographs were taken of students performing clinical procedures. The work postures adopted by each student were evaluated by means of rapid upper limb assessment (RULA). The basis used to obtain the individual's final risk score is the measurement of the angular deviations in the neutral positions of the regions evaluated. Two methods were used to estimate the angular deviation of the body: Visual exam and Image Tool software. A RULA final risk score was attributed to each procedure the student performed (n = 333). Study of the agreement between the methods about risk of musculoskeletal disorders was conducted by means of Kappa (κ) statistics. The level of significance adopted was 5%. Results: Fair agreement (κ = 0.32) between the evaluated methods was verified. Conclusion: The risk for development of upper limb musculoskeletal disorders by dentistry undergraduates evaluated by using RULA was not in agreement with the results obtained by use of visual exam and Image Tool.
Resumo:
The purpose of this paper was to evaluate the agreement among different methods used to estimate angular deviation of the body to determine the risk for development of upper limb musculoskeletal disorders in dentistry undergraduates. Materials and Methods: Students (n = 79) enrolled in the final year undergraduate course of the Araraquara School of Dentistry-Sγo Paulo State University-UNESP were evaluated. Photographs were taken of students performing clinical procedures. The work postures adopted by each student were evaluated by means of rapid upper limb assessment (RULA). The basis used to obtain the individual's final risk score is the measurement of the angular deviations in the neutral positions of the regions evaluated. Two methods were used to estimate the angular deviation of the body: Visual exam and Image Tool software. A RULA final risk score was attributed to each procedure the student performed (n = 333). Study of the agreement between the methods about risk of musculoskeletal disorders was conducted by means of Kappa (κ) statistics. The level of significance adopted was 5%. Results: Fair agreement (κ = 0.32) between the evaluated methods was verified. Conclusion: The risk for development of upper limb musculoskeletal disorders by dentistry undergraduates evaluated by using RULA was not in agreement with the results obtained by use of visual exam and Image Tool.
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The composition of the atmosphere is frequently perturbed by the emission of gaseous and particulate matter from natural as well as anthropogenic sources. While the impact of trace gases on the radiative forcing of the climate is relatively well understood the role of aerosol is far more uncertain. Therefore, the study of the vertical distribution of particulate matter in the atmosphere and its chemical composition contribute valuable information to bridge this gap of knowledge. The chemical composition of aerosol reveals information on properties such as radiative behavior and hygroscopicity and therefore cloud condensation or ice nucleus potential. rnThis thesis focuses on aerosol pollution plumes observed in 2008 during the POLARCAT (Polar Study using Aircraft, Remote Sensing, Surface Measurements and Models, of Climate, Chemistry, Aerosols, and Transport) campaign over Greenland in June/July and CONCERT (Contrail and Cirrus Experiment) campaign over Central and Western Europe in October/November. Measurements were performed with an Aerodyne compact time-of-flight aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS) capable of online size-resolved chemical characterization of non-refractory submicron particles. In addition, the origins of pollution plumes were determined by means of modeling tools. The characterized pollution episodes originated from a large variety of sources and were encountered at distinct altitudes. They included pure natural emissions from two volcanic eruptions in 2008. By the time of detection over Western Europe between 10 and 12 km altitude the plume was about 3 months old and composed to 71 % of particulate sulfate and 21 % of carbonaceous compounds. Also, biomass burning (BB) plumes were observed over Greenland between 4 and 7 km altitude (free troposphere) originating from Canada and East Siberia. The long-range transport took roughly one and two weeks, respectively. The aerosol was composed of 78 % organic matter and 22 % particulate sulfate. Some Canadian and all Siberian BB plumes were mixed with anthropogenic emissions from fossil fuel combustion (FF) in North America and East Asia. It was found that the contribution of particulate sulfate increased with growing influences from anthropogenic activity and Asia reaching up to 37 % after more than two weeks of transport time. The most exclusively anthropogenic emission source probed in the upper troposphere was engine exhaust from commercial aircraft liners over Germany. However, in-situ characterization of this aerosol type during aircraft chasing was not possible. All long-range transport aerosol was found to have an O:C ratio close to or greater than 1 implying that low-volatility oxygenated organic aerosol was present in each case despite the variety of origins and the large range in age from 3 to 100 days. This leads to the conclusion that organic particulate matter reaches a final and uniform state of oxygenation after at least 3 days in the free troposphere. rnExcept for aircraft exhaust all emission sources mentioned above are surface-bound and thus rely on different types of vertical transport mechanisms, such as direct high altitude injection in the case of a volcanic eruption, or severe BB, or uplift by convection, to reach higher altitudes where particles can travel long distances before removal mainly caused by cloud scavenging. A lifetime for North American mixed BB and FF aerosol of 7 to 11 days was derived. This in consequence means that emission from surface point sources, e.g. volcanoes, or regions, e.g. East Asia, do not only have a relevant impact on the immediate surroundings but rather on a hemispheric scale including such climate sensitive zones as the tropopause or the Arctic.
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Upper-air observations are a fundamental data source for global atmospheric data products, but uncertainties, particularly in the early years, are not well known. Most of the early observations, which have now been digitized, are prone to a large variety of undocumented uncertainties (errors) that need to be quantified, e.g., for their assimilation in reanalysis projects. We apply a novel approach to estimate errors in upper-air temperature, geopotential height, and wind observations from the Comprehensive Historical Upper-Air Network for the time period from 1923 to 1966. We distinguish between random errors, biases, and a term that quantifies the representativity of the observations. The method is based on a comparison of neighboring observations and is hence independent of metadata, making it applicable to a wide scope of observational data sets. The estimated mean random errors for all observations within the study period are 1.5 K for air temperature, 1.3 hPa for pressure, 3.0 ms−1for wind speed, and 21.4° for wind direction. The estimates are compared to results of previous studies and analyzed with respect to their spatial and temporal variability.
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Polycyclic aromatic compounds (PACs) in air particulate matter contribute considerably to the health risk of air pollution. The objectives of this study were to assess the occurrence and variation in concentrations and sources of PM2.5-bound PACs [Oxygenated PAHs (OPAHs), nitro-PAHs and parent-PAHs] sampled from the atmosphere of a typical Chinese megacity (Xi'an), to study the influence of meteorological conditions on PACs and to estimate the lifetime excess cancer risk to the residents of Xi'an (from inhalation of PM2.5-bound PACs). To achieve these objectives, we sampled 24-h PM2.5 aerosols (once in every 6 days, from 5 July 2008 to 8 August 2009) from the atmosphere of Xi'an and measured the concentrations of PACs in them. The PM2.5-bound concentrations of Σcarbonyl-OPAHs, ∑ hydroxyl + carboxyl-OPAHs, Σnitro-PAHs and Σalkyl + parent-PAHs ranged between 5–22, 0.2–13, 0.3–7, and 7–387 ng m− 3, respectively, being markedly higher than in most western cities. This represented a range of 0.01–0.4% and 0.002–0.06% of the mass of organic C in PM2.5 and the total mass of PM2.5, respectively. The sums of the concentrations of each compound group had winter-to-summer ratios ranging from 3 to 8 and most individual OPAHs and nitro-PAHs had higher concentrations in winter than in summer, suggesting a dominant influence of emissions from household heating and winter meteorological conditions. Ambient temperature, air pressure, and wind speed explained a large part of the temporal variation in PACs concentrations. The lifetime excess cancer risk from inhalation (attributable to selected PAHs and nitro-PAHs) was six fold higher in winter (averaging 1450 persons per million residents of Xi'an) than in summer. Our results call for the development of emission control measures.
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Objective In the pediatric population traumatic injuries of the upper extremity are common. After therapy a decision has to be made if the mobility of the joint lies within a normal range. The purpose of this study was to give an introduction to normative data. We investigate if there is a significant difference in the range of motion (ROM) between male and female probands and furthermore, if an effect of the age can be detected. Methods We performed an institutional review board-approved study of healthy girls and boys aged between 2 and 16 years without any medical history of an upper extremity fracture. We investigated the active ROM of the elbow, wrist, metacarpophalangeal, and interphalangeal joints. Furthermore, age, handedness, weight, and height were recorded. A total of 171 adolescents with a mean age of 10.6 years were included and separated into four cohorts by age: 2 to 5, 6 to 10, 11 to 13, and 14 to 16 years. Results We found significant differences between the genders in the age group from 11 to 13 years for the flexion of the elbow, the pronation, the flexion of the interphalangeal joint of the thumb, as well as the flexion of the metacarpophalangeal joints of digitus II to V. Furthermore, a significant difference in the same joints except from the elbow flexion could be demonstrated between the genders. Conclusion Our study contributes normative data for upper extremity ROM in the pediatric population and presents a gender-related difference in certain joints. Clinical Relevance Normative data for the ROM of upper extremity joints in children is helpful for the evaluation of pediatric orthopedic patients and provides the framework for therapeutic resolution. Since a great number of traumatic injuries in children affect the upper extremity, this information may help the physician to estimate the impact of the injury and decide on the therapeutic management.
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Maximizing data quality may be especially difficult in trauma-related clinical research. Strategies are needed to improve data quality and assess the impact of data quality on clinical predictive models. This study had two objectives. The first was to compare missing data between two multi-center trauma transfusion studies: a retrospective study (RS) using medical chart data with minimal data quality review and the PRospective Observational Multi-center Major Trauma Transfusion (PROMMTT) study with standardized quality assurance. The second objective was to assess the impact of missing data on clinical prediction algorithms by evaluating blood transfusion prediction models using PROMMTT data. RS (2005-06) and PROMMTT (2009-10) investigated trauma patients receiving ≥ 1 unit of red blood cells (RBC) from ten Level I trauma centers. Missing data were compared for 33 variables collected in both studies using mixed effects logistic regression (including random intercepts for study site). Massive transfusion (MT) patients received ≥ 10 RBC units within 24h of admission. Correct classification percentages for three MT prediction models were evaluated using complete case analysis and multiple imputation based on the multivariate normal distribution. A sensitivity analysis for missing data was conducted to estimate the upper and lower bounds of correct classification using assumptions about missing data under best and worst case scenarios. Most variables (17/33=52%) had <1% missing data in RS and PROMMTT. Of the remaining variables, 50% demonstrated less missingness in PROMMTT, 25% had less missingness in RS, and 25% were similar between studies. Missing percentages for MT prediction variables in PROMMTT ranged from 2.2% (heart rate) to 45% (respiratory rate). For variables missing >1%, study site was associated with missingness (all p≤0.021). Survival time predicted missingness for 50% of RS and 60% of PROMMTT variables. MT models complete case proportions ranged from 41% to 88%. Complete case analysis and multiple imputation demonstrated similar correct classification results. Sensitivity analysis upper-lower bound ranges for the three MT models were 59-63%, 36-46%, and 46-58%. Prospective collection of ten-fold more variables with data quality assurance reduced overall missing data. Study site and patient survival were associated with missingness, suggesting that data were not missing completely at random, and complete case analysis may lead to biased results. Evaluating clinical prediction model accuracy may be misleading in the presence of missing data, especially with many predictor variables. The proposed sensitivity analysis estimating correct classification under upper (best case scenario)/lower (worst case scenario) bounds may be more informative than multiple imputation, which provided results similar to complete case analysis.^
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Along three sections in the Kara Sea and Obskaya Guba concentrations of dissolved and particulate organic carbon (DOC and POC, respectively) in waters , as well as of organic carbon in bottom sediments (Corg) in September-October 2007 were determined. DOC varied from 6.3 to 2400 µg/l, POC - from 0.84 to 12.2 mg/l. For all samples the average DOC was 200 µg/l (n = 78; sigma = 368), the average POC - 2.7 mg/l (n = 92; sigma = 2.7). Concentrations of Corg in dried samples of upper layer bottom sediments varied from 0.13 to 2.10% (aver. = 0.9%; n = 21; sigma = 0.49%). It is shown that distribution of different forms of organic matter (OM) is an indicator of supply and scattering of particulate matter in the Kara Sea and that DOC and POC of the Kara Sea are formed under impact of runoff of the Ob and Yenisei Rivers. It is found that distribution of OM in bottom sediments is closely related to their grain size composition and to the structure of currents in the area. Variations in Corg concentration in bottom sediment cores from the zone of riverine and sea water mixing represent variability of OM burial.
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Geochemical behavior of Rb-Sr and K-Ar systems in Upper Vendian clayey rocks of the Russian Platform is under consideredation. The use of additional data on grain size fractions of sedimentary rocks recovered from boreholes drilled in the Gavrilov Yam area made it possible to confirm the previous conclusion on two stages of epigenetic matter transformation (approximately 600 and 400 Ma ago). Distortions are related to transformation of sediments due to interaction in the water-rock system. Interaction degree was more intense in the upper part of the sedimentary section relative to its lower strata. These conclusions are substantiated by materials from boreholes that characterize different types of Vendian sections and different tectonic zones.
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Below oxygen isotope stage 16, the orbitally derived time-scale developed by Shackleton et al. (1990) from ODP site 677 in the equatorial Pacific differs significantly from previous ones (e.g. Kominz and Pisias, 1979 doi:10.1126/science.204.4389.171; Morley and Hays, 1981 doi:10.1016/0012-821X(81)90034-0, Imbrie et al. 1984), yielding estimated ages for the last Earth magnetic reversals that are 5-7% older than the K/Ar values (Mankinen and Dalrymple, 1979 doi:10.1029/JB084iB02p00615; Berggren et al., 1985; Harland and Armstrong, 1989) but are in good agreement with recent Ar/Ar dating (Baksi et al., 1991; 1992 doi:10.1126/science.256.5055.356; Spell and McDougall, 1992 doi:10.1029/92GL01125). These results suggest that in the lower Brunhes and upper Matuyama chronozones most deep-sea climatic records retrieved so far apparently missed or misinterpreted several oscillations predicted by the astronomical theory of climate. To test this hypothesis, we studied a high-resolution oxygen isotope record from giant piston core MD900963 (Maldives area, tropical Indian Ocean) in which precession-related oscillations in delta18O are particularly well expressed, owing to the superimposition of a local salinity signal on the global ice volume signal (Rostek et al., 1993 doi:10.1038/364319a0). Three additional precession-related cycles are observed in oxygen isotope stages 17 and 18 of core MD900963, compared to the SPECMAP composite curves (Imbrie et al., 1984; Prell et al., 1986 doi:10.1029/PA001i002p00137), and stage 21 clearly presents three precession oscillations, as predicted by Shackleton et al. (1990). The precession peaks found in the delta18O record from core MD900963 are in excellent agreement with climatic oscillations predicted by the astronomical theory of climate. Our delta18O record therefore permits the development of an accurate astronomical time-scale. Based on our age model, the Brunhes-Matuyama reversal is dated at 775 +/- 10 ka, in good agreement with the age estimate of 780 ka obtained by Shackleton et al. (1990) and recent radiochronological Ar/Ar datings on lavas (Baksi et al., 1991; 1992; Spell and McDougall, 1992). We developed a new low-latitude, Upper Pleistocene delta18O reference record by stacking and tuning the delta18O records from core MD900963 and site 677 to orbital forcing functions.
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In-situ Fe isotope measurements have been carried out to estimate the impact of the hydrothermal metamorphic overprint on the Fe isotopic composition of Fe-Ti-oxides and Fe-sulfides of the different lithologies of the drilled rocks from IODP Hole 1256D (eastern equatorial Pacific; 15 Ma crust formed at the East Pacific Rise). Most igneous rocks normally have a very restricted range in their 56Fe/54Fe ratio. In contrast, Fe isotope compositions of hot fluids (> 300 °C) from mid-ocean-ridge spreading centers define a narrow range that is shifted to lower delta 56Fe values by 0.2 per mil - 0.5 per mil as compared to igneous rocks. Therefore, it is expected that mineral phases that contain large amounts of Fe are especially affected by the interaction with a fluid that fractionates Fe isotopes during exsolution/precipitation of those minerals. We have used a femtosecond UV-Laser ablation system to determine mineral 56Fe/54Fe ratios of selected samples with a precision of < 0.1 per mil (2 sigma level) at micrometer-scale. We have found significant variations of the delta 56Fe (IRMM-014) values in the minerals between different samples as well as within samples and mineral grains. The overall observed scale of delta 56Fe (magnetite) in 1256D rocks ranges from - 0.12 to + 0.64 per mil, and of delta 56Fe (ilmenite) from - 0.77 to + 0.01 per mil. Pyrite in the lowermost sheeted dike section is clearly distinguishable from the other investigated lithological units, having positive delta 56Fe values between + 0.29 and + 0.56 per mil, whereas pyrite in the other samples has generally negative delta 56Fe values from - 1.10 to - 0.59 permil. One key observation is that the temperature dependent inter-mineral fractionations of Fe isotopes between magnetite and ilmenite are systematically shifted towards higher values when compared to theoretically expected values, while synthesized, well equilibrated magnetite-ilmenite pairs are compatible with the theoretical predictions. Theoretical considerations including beta-factors of different aqueous Fe-chlorides and Rayleigh-type fractionations in the presence of a hydrous, chlorine-bearing fluid can explain this observation. The disagreement between observed and theoretical equilibrium fractionation, the fact that magnetite, in contrast to ilmenite shows a slight downhole trend in the delta 56Fe values, and the observation of small scale heterogeneities within single mineral grains imply that a general re-equilibration of the magnetite-ilmenite pairs is overprinted by kinetic fractionation effects, caused by the interaction of magnetite/ilmenite with hydrothermal fluids penetrating the upper oceanic crust during cooling, or incomplete re-equilibration at low temperatures. Furthermore, the observation of significant small-scale variations in the 56Fe/54Fe ratios of single minerals in this study highlights the importance of high spatial-resolution-analyses of stable isotope ratios for further investigations.