Hand in hand:privatising five star hotels in Egypt through the stock market will enhance the latter's role as well as set an example of the benefits that could be gained from privatisation

This thesis examines the possibility of privatising public owned five star hotels in Egypt through its stock market in order to give a boost to the Egyptian privatisation programme and to help activate its stock market. To explore these aspects, two main technical exercises were executed. First the writer constructed, for the first time in Egypt, a daily price index for Cairo Stock Exchange and an index for the tourism sector, in order to analyze the efficiency of the capital market. This technical analysis showed that Cairo stock exchange is inefficient, stagnant and undergoes minimal fluctuations, especially when compared to other developed and emerging markets. Second, given the importance and complexity of the valuation of SOEs prior to their privatisation, a sample of three five star hotels that could be prime candidates for privatisation via the stock market in Egypt were selected and a detailed financial analysis for the three hotels was concluded. The result was a valuation range for the three hotels using various valuation methods. Nevertheless it was found out that the final value of hotels will be determined by the market itself. Depite the inefficiency of Cairo Stock Exchange, the thesis did not rule out privatisation through the stock market. On the contrary it cited several examples of developing countries that were able to successfully privatise some of their SOEs via their rudimentary capital markets. Finally, the thesis recommended that five star hotels could be pefect candidates for privatisation via the stock market in Egypt. This is because five star hotels are profitable, privately managed, non strategic and not highly capital intensive businesses. In addition, they do not suffer from overstaffing and the industry in which they operate i.e. tourism sector, has high growth prospects and is of an international nature. Therefore it is anticipated that privatisation of five star hotels can attract a lot of investors because of the relatively high returns. This in turn will help activate and popularize the capital market in Egypt. At the same time the benefits of privatisation would be more visible which will give more momentum to the privatisation programme and make it more politically acceptable.

Impact of derivatives trading on emerging stock markets:some evidence from India

It is generally accepted that the introduction of financial derivatives that facilitate hedging is an important step in the development of stock markets. However, financial derivatives can potentially increase volatility in the underlying cash market, which might be detrimental to the development of the stock market itself. Using data from India, we examine one possible route through which derivatives trading can increase cash market volatility: expiration day effect. Our results indicate that expiration of equity derivatives contracts does not have any effect on the intra-day volatility of the market index, and it reduces the volatility of inter-day returns to the index.

The effect of universal futures on opening and closing stock market price discovery

Purpose – On 29 January 2001, Euronext LIFFE introduced single security futures contracts on a range of global companies. The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact that the introduction of these futures contracts had on the behaviour of opening and closing UK equity returns. Design/methodology/approach – The paper models the price discovery process using the Amihud and Mendelson partial adjustment model which can be estimated using a Kalman filter. Findings – Empirical results show that during the pre-futures period both opening and closing returns under-react to new information. After the introduction of futures contracts opening returns over-react. A rise in the partial adjustment coefficient also takes place for closing returns but this is not large enough to cause over-reaction. Originality/value – This is the first study to examine the impact of a single security futures contract on the speed of spot market price discovery.

Self-affinity in financial asset returns

We test for departures from normal and independent and identically distributed (NIID) log returns, for log returns under the alternative hypothesis that are self-affine and either long-range dependent, or drawn randomly from an L-stable distribution with infinite higher-order moments. The finite sample performance of estimators of the two forms of self-affinity is explored in a simulation study. In contrast to rescaled range analysis and other conventional estimation methods, the variant of fluctuation analysis that considers finite sample moments only is able to identify both forms of self-affinity. When log returns are self-affine and long-range dependent under the alternative hypothesis, however, rescaled range analysis has higher power than fluctuation analysis. The techniques are illustrated by means of an analysis of the daily log returns for the indices of 11 stock markets of developed countries. Several of the smaller stock markets by capitalization exhibit evidence of long-range dependence in log returns. © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Unifractality and multifractality in the Italian stock market

Tests for random walk behaviour in the Italian stock market are presented, based on an investigation of the fractal properties of the log return series for the Mibtel index. The random walk hypothesis is evaluated against alternatives accommodating either unifractality or multifractality. Critical values for the test statistics are generated using Monte Carlo simulations of random Gaussian innovations. Evidence is reported of multifractality, and the departure from random walk behaviour is statistically significant on standard criteria. The observed pattern is attributed primarily to fat tails in the return probability distribution, associated with volatility clustering in returns measured over various time scales. © 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Modelling stock volatilities during financial crises:a time varying coefficient approach

We examine how the most prevalent stochastic properties of key financial time series have been affected during the recent financial crises. In particular we focus on changes associated with the remarkable economic events of the last two decades in the volatility dynamics, including the underlying volatility persistence and volatility spillover structure. Using daily data from several key stock market indices, the results of our bivariate GARCH models show the existence of time varying correlations as well as time varying shock and volatility spillovers between the returns of FTSE and DAX, and those of NIKKEI and Hang Seng, which became more prominent during the recent financial crisis. Our theoretical considerations on the time varying model which provides the platform upon which we integrate our multifaceted empirical approaches are also of independent interest. In particular, we provide the general solution for time varying asymmetric GARCH specifications, which is a long standing research topic. This enables us to characterize these models by deriving, first, their multistep ahead predictors, second, the first two time varying unconditional moments, and third, their covariance structure.

International stock portfolio selection and performance measures recognizing higher moments of return distributions

Since the seminal works of Markowitz (1952), Sharpe (1964), and Lintner (1965), numerous studies on portfolio selection and performance measure have been based upon the mean-variance framework. However, several researchers (e.g., Arditti (1967, and 1971), Samuelson (1970), and Rubinstein (1973)) argue that the higher moments cannot be neglected unless there is reason to believe that: (i) the asset returns are normally distributed and the investor's utility function is quadratic, or (ii) the empirical evidence demonstrates that higher moments are irrelevant to the investor's decision. Based on the same argument, this dissertation investigates the impact of higher moments of return distributions on three issues concerning the 14 international stock markets.^ First, the portfolio selection with skewness is determined using: the Polynomial Goal Programming in which investor preferences for skewness can be incorporated. The empirical findings suggest that the return distributions of international stock markets are not normally distributed, and that the incorporation of skewness into an investor's portfolio decision causes a major change in the construction of his optimal portfolio. The evidence also indicates that an investor will trade expected return of the portfolio for skewness. Moreover, when short sales are allowed, investors are better off as they attain higher expected return and skewness simultaneously.^ Second, the performance of international stock markets are evaluated using two types of performance measures: (i) the two-moment performance measures of Sharpe (1966), and Treynor (1965), and (ii) the higher-moment performance measures of Prakash and Bear (1986), and Stephens and Proffitt (1991). The empirical evidence indicates that higher moments of return distributions are significant and relevant to the investor's decision. Thus, the higher moment performance measures should be more appropriate to evaluate the performances of international stock markets. The evidence also indicates that various measures provide a vastly different performance ranking of the markets, albeit in the same direction.^ Finally, the inter-temporal stability of the international stock markets is investigated using the Parhizgari and Prakash (1989) algorithm for the Sen and Puri (1968) test which accounts for non-normality of return distributions. The empirical finding indicates that there is strong evidence to support the stability in international stock market movements. However, when the Anderson test which assumes normality of return distributions is employed, the stability in the correlation structure is rejected. This suggests that the non-normality of the return distribution is an important factor that cannot be ignored in the investigation of inter-temporal stability of international stock markets. ^

A study of stock market linkages between the US and frontier countries

My dissertation investigates the financial linkages and transmission of economic shocks between the US and the smallest emerging markets (frontier markets). The first chapter sets up an empirical model that examines the impact of US market returns and conditional volatility on the returns and conditional volatilities of twenty-one frontier markets. The model is estimated via maximum likelihood; utilizes the GARCH model of errors, and is applied to daily country data from the MSCI Barra. We find limited, but statistically significant exposure of Frontier markets to shocks from the US. Our results suggest that it is not the lagged US market returns that have impact; rather it is the expected US market returns that influence frontier market returns The second chapter sets up an empirical time-varying parameter (TVP) model to explore the time-variation in the impact of mean US returns on mean Frontier market returns. The model utilizes the Kalman filter algorithm as well as the GARCH model of errors and is applied to daily country data from the MSCI Barra. The TVP model detects statistically significant time-variation in the impact of US returns and low, but statistically and quantitatively important impact of US market conditional volatility. The third chapter studies the risk-return relationship in twenty Frontier country stock markets by setting up an international version of the intertemporal capital asset pricing model. The systematic risk in this model comes from covariance of Frontier market stock index returns with world returns. Both the systematic risk and risk premium are time-varying in our model. We also incorporate own country variances as additional determinants of Frontier country returns. Our results suggest statistically significant impact of both world and own country risk in explaining Frontier country returns. Time-variation in the world risk premium is also found to be statistically significant for most Frontier market returns. However, own country risk is found to be quantitatively more important.

Three essays on dual-class stock structure

Dual-class stock structure is characterized by the separation of voting rights and cash flow rights. The departure from a common "one share-one vote" configuration creates ideal conditions for conflicts of interest and agency problems between controlling insiders (the holders of voting rights) and remaining shareholders. The owners of voting rights have the opportunity to extract private benefits and act in their personal interest; as a result, dual-class firms are often perceived to have low transparency and high information asymmetry. This dissertation investigates the quality of information and the information environment of firms with two classes of stock. The first essay examines the quality of information by studying accruals in dual-class firms in comparison to firms with only one class of stock. The results suggest that the quality of accruals is better in dual-class firms than in single-class firms. In addition, the difference in the quality of accruals between firms that abolish their dual-class share structure by unification and singe-class firms disappears in the post-unification period. The second essay investigates the earnings informativeness of dual-class firms by examining the explanatory power of earnings for returns. The results indicate that the earnings informativeness is lower for dual-class firms as compared to single-class firms. Earnings informativeness improves in firms that unify their shares. The third essay compares the level of information asymmetry between dual-class firms and single-class firms. It is documented that the information environment for dual-class firms is worse than for single-class firms. Also, the finding suggests that the difference in information environment between dual-class firms and single-class firms disappears after dual-class stock unification.

Returns to shareholder activism: Evidence from a clinical study of the hermes UK focus fund

This article reports a unique analysis of private engagements by an activist fund. It is based on data made available to us by Hermes, the fund manager owned by the British Telecom Pension Scheme, on engagements with management in companies targeted by its UK Focus Fund. In contrast with most previous studies of activism, we report that the fund executes shareholder activism predominantly through private interventions that would be unobservable in studies purely relying on public information. The fund substantially outperforms benchmarks and we estimate that abnormal returns are largely associated with engagements rather than stock picking. © The Author 2008.

Low-Volatility Anomaly in Helsinki Stock Exchange

International research shows that low-volatility stocks have beaten high-volatility stocks in terms of returns for decades on multiple markets. This abbreviation from traditional risk-return framework is known as low-volatility anomaly. This study focuses on explaining the anomaly and finding how strongly it appears in NASDAQ OMX Helsinki stock exchange. Data consists of all listed companies starting from 2001 and ending close to 2015. Methodology follows closely Baker and Haugen (2012) by sorting companies into deciles according to 3-month volatility and then calculating monthly returns for these different volatility groups. Annualized return for the lowest volatility decile is 8.85 %, while highest volatility decile destroys wealth at rate of -19.96 % per annum. Results are parallel also in quintiles that represent larger amount of companies and thus dilute outliers. Observation period captures financial crisis of 2007-2008 and European debt crisis, which embodies as low main index annual return of 1 %, but at the same time proves the success of low-volatility strategy. Low-volatility anomaly is driven by multiple reasons such as leverage constrained trading and managerial incentives which both prompt to invest in risky assets, but behavioral matters also have major weight in maintaining the anomaly.

An analysis of herd behavior in Latin American stock markets

This research investigates whether the major stock markets in Latin America (Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Colombia, Peru and Argentina) exhibited herd behavior over the period January 2, 2002 to June 30, 2014, using the variation in the returns overall and by sector in the most representative stock market index in each country, using the model proposed by Christie y Huang (1995) -- The results do not reveal any herd behavior in the total market, or in the sectors of the markets examined in the study

The meaning of implied volatility in pricing stock options traded in options markets

Ph.D. in the Faculty of Business Administration

Three Essays on Dual-Class Stock Structure

Dual-class stock structure is characterized by the separation of voting rights and cash flow rights. The departure from a common “one share-one vote” configuration creates ideal conditions for conflicts of interest and agency problems between controlling insiders (the holders of voting rights) and remaining shareholders. The owners of voting rights have the opportunity to extract private benefits and act in their personal interest; as a result, dual-class firms are often perceived to have low transparency and high information asymmetry. This dissertation investigates the quality of information and the information environment of firms with two classes of stock. The first essay examines the quality of information by studying accruals in dual-class firms in comparison to firms with only one class of stock. The results suggest that the quality of accruals is better in dual-class firms than in single-class firms. In addition, the difference in the quality of accruals between firms that abolish their dual-class share structure by unification and singe-class firms disappears in the post-unification period. The second essay investigates the earnings informativeness of dual-class firms by examining the explanatory power of earnings for returns. The results indicate that the earnings informativeness is lower for dual-class firms as compared to single-class firms. Earnings informativeness improves in firms that unify their shares. The third essay compares the level of information asymmetry between dual-class firms and single-class firms. It is documented that the information environment for dual-class firms is worse than for single-class firms. Also, the finding suggests that the difference in information environment between dual-class firms and single-class firms disappears after dual-class stock unification.

Merluccius hubbsi (Teleostei: Merlucciidae): stock identification based on reproductive biology in the south-southeast brazilian region

The Argentine hake, Merluccius hubbsi, a demersal-pelagic species found from Rio de Janeiro, Brazil to the Tierra del Fuego, Argentina, has become an important target of the Brazilian bottom-trawler fleet since 2001. Earlier studies focusing on the species have suggested that more than one stock might occur off the Brazilian coast, in accordance with environmental features. In order to evaluate this hypothesis, fish were collected from four different areas in the Brazilian waters in which the hake is distributed, during the summers and winters of 1996-2001 and 2004, the females being used to analyze and compare spatial-temporal variations in ovarian maturation. Gonad indexes were also applied for the same purpose. Results indicate a north-south spawning gradient occurring as from summer at around 21°S to winter near 34°S, leading to the identification of two distinct stocks: one located between 21°S and 29°S (Southeastern stock) and the other between 29°S and 34°S (Southern stock), this latter shared with Uruguay and Argentina. Brazilian stocks present clear signs of overexploitation, the situation calling for an urgent solution.