Predicting diffusion of innovations with self-organisation and machine learning

The main subject of this master's thesis was predicting diffusion of innovations. The prediction was done in a special case: product has been available in some countries, and based on its diffusion in those countries the prediction is done for other countries. The prediction was based on finding similar countries with Self-Organizing Map~(SOM), using parameters of countries. Parameters included various economical and social key figures. SOM was optimised for different products using two different methods: (a) by adding diffusion information of products to the country parameters, and (b) by weighting the country parameters based on their importance for the diffusion of different products. A novel method using Differential Evolution (DE) was developed to solve the latter, highly non-linear optimisation problem. Results were fairly good. The prediction method seems to be on a solid theoretical foundation. The results based on country data were good. Instead, optimisation for different products did not generally offer clear benefit, but in some cases the improvement was clearly noticeable. The weights found for the parameters of the countries with the developed SOM optimisation method were interesting, and most of them could be explained by properties of the products.

Could machine learning improve the prediction of pelvic nodal status of prostate cancer patients? Preliminary results of a pilot study.

We tested and compared performances of Roach formula, Partin tables and of three Machine Learning (ML) based algorithms based on decision trees in identifying N+ prostate cancer (PC). 1,555 cN0 and 50 cN+ PC were analyzed. Results were also verified on an independent population of 204 operated cN0 patients, with a known pN status (187 pN0, 17 pN1 patients). ML performed better, also when tested on the surgical population, with accuracy, specificity, and sensitivity ranging between 48-86%, 35-91%, and 17-79%, respectively. ML potentially allows better prediction of the nodal status of PC, potentially allowing a better tailoring of pelvic irradiation.

Identification of research trends in the field of separation processes. Application of epidemiological model, citation analysis, text mining, and technical analysis of the financial markets

Choice of industrial development options and the relevant allocation of the research funds become more and more difficult because of the increasing R&D costs and pressure for shorter development period. Forecast of the research progress is based on the analysis of the publications activity in the field of interest as well as on the dynamics of its change. Moreover, allocation of funds is hindered by exponential growth in the number of publications and patents. Thematic clusters become more and more difficult to identify, and their evolution hard to follow. The existing approaches of research field structuring and identification of its development are very limited. They do not identify the thematic clusters with adequate precision while the identified trends are often ambiguous. Therefore, there is a clear need to develop methods and tools, which are able to identify developing fields of research. The main objective of this Thesis is to develop tools and methods helping in the identification of the promising research topics in the field of separation processes. Two structuring methods as well as three approaches for identification of the development trends have been proposed. The proposed methods have been applied to the analysis of the research on distillation and filtration. The results show that the developed methods are universal and could be used to study of the various fields of research. The identified thematic clusters and the forecasted trends of their development have been confirmed in almost all tested cases. It proves the universality of the proposed methods. The results allow for identification of the fast-growing scientific fields as well as the topics characterized by stagnant or diminishing research activity.

Evaluation of Machine Learning Classifiers for Mobile Network Intrusion Detection Systems

Mobile malwares are increasing with the growing number of Mobile users. Mobile malwares can perform several operations which lead to cybersecurity threats such as, stealing financial or personal information, installing malicious applications, sending premium SMS, creating backdoors, keylogging and crypto-ransomware attacks. Knowing the fact that there are many illegitimate Applications available on the App stores, most of the mobile users remain careless about the security of their Mobile devices and become the potential victim of these threats. Previous studies have shown that not every antivirus is capable of detecting all the threats; due to the fact that Mobile malwares use advance techniques to avoid detection. A Network-based IDS at the operator side will bring an extra layer of security to the subscribers and can detect many advanced threats by analyzing their traffic patterns. Machine Learning(ML) will provide the ability to these systems to detect unknown threats for which signatures are not yet known. This research is focused on the evaluation of Machine Learning classifiers in Network-based Intrusion detection systems for Mobile Networks. In this study, different techniques of Network-based intrusion detection with their advantages, disadvantages and state of the art in Hybrid solutions are discussed. Finally, a ML based NIDS is proposed which will work as a subsystem, to Network-based IDS deployed by Mobile Operators, that can help in detecting unknown threats and reducing false positives. In this research, several ML classifiers were implemented and evaluated. This study is focused on Android-based malwares, as Android is the most popular OS among users, hence most targeted by cyber criminals. Supervised ML algorithms based classifiers were built using the dataset which contained the labeled instances of relevant features. These features were extracted from the traffic generated by samples of several malware families and benign applications. These classifiers were able to detect malicious traffic patterns with the TPR upto 99.6% during Cross-validation test. Also, several experiments were conducted to detect unknown malware traffic and to detect false positives. These classifiers were able to detect unknown threats with the Accuracy of 97.5%. These classifiers could be integrated with current NIDS', which use signatures, statistical or knowledge-based techniques to detect malicious traffic. Technique to integrate the output from ML classifier with traditional NIDS is discussed and proposed for future work.

Sequential Machine learning Approaches for Portfolio Management

Cette thèse envisage un ensemble de méthodes permettant aux algorithmes d'apprentissage statistique de mieux traiter la nature séquentielle des problèmes de gestion de portefeuilles financiers. Nous débutons par une considération du problème général de la composition d'algorithmes d'apprentissage devant gérer des tâches séquentielles, en particulier celui de la mise-à-jour efficace des ensembles d'apprentissage dans un cadre de validation séquentielle. Nous énumérons les desiderata que des primitives de composition doivent satisfaire, et faisons ressortir la difficulté de les atteindre de façon rigoureuse et efficace. Nous poursuivons en présentant un ensemble d'algorithmes qui atteignent ces objectifs et présentons une étude de cas d'un système complexe de prise de décision financière utilisant ces techniques. Nous décrivons ensuite une méthode générale permettant de transformer un problème de décision séquentielle non-Markovien en un problème d'apprentissage supervisé en employant un algorithme de recherche basé sur les K meilleurs chemins. Nous traitons d'une application en gestion de portefeuille où nous entraînons un algorithme d'apprentissage à optimiser directement un ratio de Sharpe (ou autre critère non-additif incorporant une aversion au risque). Nous illustrons l'approche par une étude expérimentale approfondie, proposant une architecture de réseaux de neurones spécialisée à la gestion de portefeuille et la comparant à plusieurs alternatives. Finalement, nous introduisons une représentation fonctionnelle de séries chronologiques permettant à des prévisions d'être effectuées sur un horizon variable, tout en utilisant un ensemble informationnel révélé de manière progressive. L'approche est basée sur l'utilisation des processus Gaussiens, lesquels fournissent une matrice de covariance complète entre tous les points pour lesquels une prévision est demandée. Cette information est utilisée à bon escient par un algorithme qui transige activement des écarts de cours (price spreads) entre des contrats à terme sur commodités. L'approche proposée produit, hors échantillon, un rendement ajusté pour le risque significatif, après frais de transactions, sur un portefeuille de 30 actifs.

Désambiguisation de sens par modèles de contextes et son application à la Recherche d’Information

Il est connu que les problèmes d'ambiguïté de la langue ont un effet néfaste sur les résultats des systèmes de Recherche d'Information (RI). Toutefois, les efforts de recherche visant à intégrer des techniques de Désambiguisation de Sens (DS) à la RI n'ont pas porté fruit. La plupart des études sur le sujet obtiennent effectivement des résultats négatifs ou peu convaincants. De plus, des investigations basées sur l'ajout d'ambiguïté artificielle concluent qu'il faudrait une très haute précision de désambiguation pour arriver à un effet positif. Ce mémoire vise à développer de nouvelles approches plus performantes et efficaces, se concentrant sur l'utilisation de statistiques de cooccurrence afin de construire des modèles de contexte. Ces modèles pourront ensuite servir à effectuer une discrimination de sens entre une requête et les documents d'une collection. Dans ce mémoire à deux parties, nous ferons tout d'abord une investigation de la force de la relation entre un mot et les mots présents dans son contexte, proposant une méthode d'apprentissage du poids d'un mot de contexte en fonction de sa distance du mot modélisé dans le document. Cette méthode repose sur l'idée que des modèles de contextes faits à partir d'échantillons aléatoires de mots en contexte devraient être similaires. Des expériences en anglais et en japonais montrent que la force de relation en fonction de la distance suit généralement une loi de puissance négative. Les poids résultant des expériences sont ensuite utilisés dans la construction de systèmes de DS Bayes Naïfs. Des évaluations de ces systèmes sur les données de l'atelier Semeval en anglais pour la tâche Semeval-2007 English Lexical Sample, puis en japonais pour la tâche Semeval-2010 Japanese WSD, montrent que les systèmes ont des résultats comparables à l'état de l'art, bien qu'ils soient bien plus légers, et ne dépendent pas d'outils ou de ressources linguistiques. La deuxième partie de ce mémoire vise à adapter les méthodes développées à des applications de Recherche d'Information. Ces applications ont la difficulté additionnelle de ne pas pouvoir dépendre de données créées manuellement. Nous proposons donc des modèles de contextes à variables latentes basés sur l'Allocation Dirichlet Latente (LDA). Ceux-ci seront combinés à la méthodes de vraisemblance de requête par modèles de langue. En évaluant le système résultant sur trois collections de la conférence TREC (Text REtrieval Conference), nous observons une amélioration proportionnelle moyenne de 12% du MAP et 23% du GMAP. Les gains se font surtout sur les requêtes difficiles, augmentant la stabilité des résultats. Ces expériences seraient la première application positive de techniques de DS sur des tâches de RI standard.

Génération de résumés par abstraction

Cette thèse présente le résultat de plusieurs années de recherche dans le domaine de la génération automatique de résumés. Trois contributions majeures, présentées sous la forme d'articles publiés ou soumis pour publication, en forment le coeur. Elles retracent un cheminement qui part des méthodes par extraction en résumé jusqu'aux méthodes par abstraction. L'expérience HexTac, sujet du premier article, a d'abord été menée pour évaluer le niveau de performance des êtres humains dans la rédaction de résumés par extraction de phrases. Les résultats montrent un écart important entre la performance humaine sous la contrainte d'extraire des phrases du texte source par rapport à la rédaction de résumés sans contrainte. Cette limite à la rédaction de résumés par extraction de phrases, observée empiriquement, démontre l'intérêt de développer d'autres approches automatiques pour le résumé. Nous avons ensuite développé un premier système selon l'approche Fully Abstractive Summarization, qui se situe dans la catégorie des approches semi-extractives, comme la compression de phrases et la fusion de phrases. Le développement et l'évaluation du système, décrits dans le second article, ont permis de constater le grand défi de générer un résumé facile à lire sans faire de l'extraction de phrases. Dans cette approche, le niveau de compréhension du contenu du texte source demeure insuffisant pour guider le processus de sélection du contenu pour le résumé, comme dans les approches par extraction de phrases. Enfin, l'approche par abstraction basée sur des connaissances nommée K-BABS est proposée dans un troisième article. Un repérage des éléments d'information pertinents est effectué, menant directement à la génération de phrases pour le résumé. Cette approche a été implémentée dans le système ABSUM, qui produit des résumés très courts mais riches en contenu. Ils ont été évalués selon les standards d'aujourd'hui et cette évaluation montre que des résumés hybrides formés à la fois de la sortie d'ABSUM et de phrases extraites ont un contenu informatif significativement plus élevé qu'un système provenant de l'état de l'art en extraction de phrases.

JSreal : un réalisateur de texte pour la programmation web

Site web associé au mémoire: http://daou.st/JSreal

A Multilingual Query Processing System using Software Agents

The goal of this work was developing a query processing system using software agents. Open Agent Architecture framework is used for system development. The system supports queries in both Hindi and Malayalam; two prominent regional languages of India. Natural language processing techniques are used for meaning extraction from the plain query and information from database is given back to the user in his native language. The system architecture is designed in a structured way that it can be adapted to other regional languages of India. . This system can be effectively used in application areas like e-governance, agriculture, rural health, education, national resource planning, disaster management, information kiosks etc where people from all walks of life are involved.

Studies on the treatment of effluents from natural rubber processing units

The present study was undertaken to evaluate the effectiveness of a few physico-chemical and biological methods for the treatment of effluents from natural rubber processing units. The overall objective of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of certain physico-chemical and biological methods for the treatment of effluents from natural rubber processing units. survey of the chemical characteristics of the effluents discharged from rubber processing units showed that the effluents from latex concentration units were the most polluting

Instant Storyboarding

This thesis aims at empowering software customers with a tool to build software tests them selves, based on a gradual refinement of natural language scenarios into executable visual test models. The process is divided in five steps: 1. First, a natural language parser is used to extract a graph of grammatical relations from the textual scenario descriptions. 2. The resulting graph is transformed into an informal story pattern by interpreting structurization rules based on Fujaba Story Diagrams. 3. While the informal story pattern can already be used by humans the diagram still lacks technical details, especially type information. To add them, a recommender based framework uses web sites and other resources to generate formalization rules. 4. As a preparation for the code generation the classes derived for formal story patterns are aligned across all story steps, substituting a class diagram. 5. Finally, a headless version of Fujaba is used to generate an executable JUnit test. The graph transformations used in the browser application are specified in a textual domain specific language and visualized as story pattern. Last but not least, only the heavyweight parsing (step 1) and code generation (step 5) are executed on the server side. All graph transformation steps (2, 3 and 4) are executed in the browser by an interpreter written in JavaScript/GWT. This result paves the way for online collaboration between global teams of software customers, IT business analysts and software developers.

Procedures as a Representation for Data in a Computer Program for Understanding Natural Language

This paper describes a system for the computer understanding of English. The system answers questions, executes commands, and accepts information in normal English dialog. It uses semantic information and context to understand discourse and to disambiguate sentences. It combines a complete syntactic analysis of each sentence with a "heuristic understander" which uses different kinds of information about a sentence, other parts of the discourse, and general information about the world in deciding what the sentence means. It is based on the belief that a computer cannot deal reasonably with language unless it can "understand" the subject it is discussing. The program is given a detailed model of the knowledge needed by a simple robot having only a hand and an eye. We can give it instructions to manipulate toy objects, interrogate it about the scene, and give it information it will use in deduction. In addition to knowing the properties of toy objects, the program has a simple model of its own mentality. It can remember and discuss its plans and actions as well as carry them out. It enters into a dialog with a person, responding to English sentences with actions and English replies, and asking for clarification when its heuristic programs cannot understand a sentence through use of context and physical knowledge.

TU Graz: Course: 707.000 Web Science and Web Technology: Lecture 10: Text Mining

This class introduces basics of web mining and information retrieval including, for example, an introduction to the Vector Space Model and Text Mining. Guest Lecturer: Dr. Michael Granitzer Optional: Modeling the Internet and the Web: Probabilistic Methods and Algorithms, Pierre Baldi, Paolo Frasconi, Padhraic Smyth, Wiley, 2003 (Chapter 4, Text Analysis)

Predicting sense of community and participation by applying machine learning to open government data

Community capacity is used to monitor socio-economic development. It is composed of a number of dimensions, which can be measured to understand the possible issues in the implementation of a policy or the outcome of a project targeting a community. Measuring community capacity dimensions is usually expensive and time consuming, requiring locally organised surveys. Therefore, we investigate a technique to estimate them by applying the Random Forests algorithm on secondary open government data. This research focuses on the prediction of measures for two dimensions: sense of community and participation. The most important variables for this prediction were determined. The variables included in the datasets used to train the predictive models complied with two criteria: nationwide availability; sufficiently fine-grained geographic breakdown, i.e. neighbourhood level. The models explained 77% of the sense of community measures and 63% of participation. Due to the low geographic detail of the outcome measures available, further research is required to apply the predictive models to a neighbourhood level. The variables that were found to be more determinant for prediction were only partially in agreement with the factors that, according to the social science literature consulted, are the most influential for sense of community and participation. This finding should be further investigated from a social science perspective, in order to be understood in depth.

Language processing in bilingual children.

La investigación desarrollada en la última década sobre las habilidades lingüísticas y cognitivas de los niños bilingües ha dado lugar a un panorama más complejo sobre el tema. Los estudios aquí reunidos, presentan pruebas que demuestran que no hay déficit o ventaja para los niños bilingües, pero en algunas situaciones si se producen consecuencias que afectan al logro de altos niveles de competencia lingüística y para el éxito en la escuela.