Table 1. Radiocarbon dates from TPC522 and box core surface samples from BC521 and BC523

Recent intensification of wind-driven upwelling of warm upper circumpolar deep water (UCDW) has been linked to accelerated melting of West Antarctic ice shelves and glaciers. To better assess the long term relationship between UCDWupwelling and the stability of theWest Antarctic Ice Sheet, we present a multi-proxy reconstruction of surface and bottom water conditions in Marguerite Bay, West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP), through the Holocene. A combination of sedimentological, diatom and foraminiferal records are, for the first time, presented together to infer a decline in UCDW influence within Marguerite Bay through the early to mid Holocene and the dominance of cyclic forcing in the late Holocene. Extensive glacial melt, limited sea ice and enhanced primary productivity between 9.7 and 7.0 ka BP is considered to be most consistent with persistent incursions of UCDW through Marguerite Trough. From 7.0 ka BP sea ice seasons increased and productivity decreased, suggesting that UCDW influence within Marguerite Bay waned, coincident with the equatorward migration of the Southern Hemisphere Westerly Winds (SWW). UCDW influence continued through the mid Holocene, and by 4.2 ka BP lengthy sea ice seasons persisted within Marguerite Bay. Intermittent melting and reforming of this sea ice within the late Holocene may be indicative of episodic incursions of UCDW into Marguerite Bay during this period. The cyclical changes in the oceanography within Marguerite Bay during the late Holocene is consistent with enhanced sensitively to ENSO forcing as opposed to the SWW-forcing that appears to have dominated the early to mid Holocene. Current measurements of the oceanography of the WAP continental shelf suggest that the system has now returned to the early Holocene-like oceanographic configuration reported here, which in both cases has been associated with rapid deglaciation.

Predicting residue-wise contact orders in proteins by support vector regression

Background: The residue-wise contact order (RWCO) describes the sequence separations between the residues of interest and its contacting residues in a protein sequence. It is a new kind of one-dimensional protein structure that represents the extent of long-range contacts and is considered as a generalization of contact order. Together with secondary structure, accessible surface area, the B factor, and contact number, RWCO provides comprehensive and indispensable important information to reconstructing the protein three-dimensional structure from a set of one-dimensional structural properties. Accurately predicting RWCO values could have many important applications in protein three-dimensional structure prediction and protein folding rate prediction, and give deep insights into protein sequence-structure relationships. Results: We developed a novel approach to predict residue-wise contact order values in proteins based on support vector regression (SVR), starting from primary amino acid sequences. We explored seven different sequence encoding schemes to examine their effects on the prediction performance, including local sequence in the form of PSI-BLAST profiles, local sequence plus amino acid composition, local sequence plus molecular weight, local sequence plus secondary structure predicted by PSIPRED, local sequence plus molecular weight and amino acid composition, local sequence plus molecular weight and predicted secondary structure, and local sequence plus molecular weight, amino acid composition and predicted secondary structure. When using local sequences with multiple sequence alignments in the form of PSI-BLAST profiles, we could predict the RWCO distribution with a Pearson correlation coefficient (CC) between the predicted and observed RWCO values of 0.55, and root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.82, based on a well-defined dataset with 680 protein sequences. Moreover, by incorporating global features such as molecular weight and amino acid composition we could further improve the prediction performance with the CC to 0.57 and an RMSE of 0.79. In addition, combining the predicted secondary structure by PSIPRED was found to significantly improve the prediction performance and could yield the best prediction accuracy with a CC of 0.60 and RMSE of 0.78, which provided at least comparable performance compared with the other existing methods. Conclusion: The SVR method shows a prediction performance competitive with or at least comparable to the previously developed linear regression-based methods for predicting RWCO values. In contrast to support vector classification (SVC), SVR is very good at estimating the raw value profiles of the samples. The successful application of the SVR approach in this study reinforces the fact that support vector regression is a powerful tool in extracting the protein sequence-structure relationship and in estimating the protein structural profiles from amino acid sequences.

ANÁLISE DAS MUDANÇAS DOS FATORES DETERMINANTES DA ESTRUTURA DE CAPITAL EM FUNÇÃO DO CICLO DE VIDA DAS EMPRESAS BRASILEIRAS SÃO BERNARDO DO CAMPO

As várias teorias acerca da estrutura de capital despertam interesse motivando diversos estudos sobre o assunto sem, no entanto, ter um consenso. Outro tema aparentemente pouco explorado refere-se ao ciclo de vida das empresas e como ele pode influenciar a estrutura de capital. Este estudo teve como objetivo verificar quais determinantes possuem maior relevância no endividamento das empresas e se estes determinantes alteram-se dependendo do ciclo de vida da empresa apoiada pelas teorias Trade Off, Pecking Order e Teoria da Agência. Para alcançar o objetivo deste trabalho foi utilizado análise em painel de efeito fixo sendo a amostra composta por empresas brasileiras de capital aberto, com dados secundários disponíveis na Economática® no período de 2005 a 2013, utilizando-se os setores da BM&FBOVESPA. Como resultado principal destaca-se o mesmo comportamento entre a amostra geral, alto e baixo crescimento pelo endividamento contábil para o determinante Lucratividade apresentando uma relação negativa, e para os determinantes Oportunidade de Crescimento e Tamanho, estes com uma relação positiva. Para os grupos de alto e baixo crescimento alguns determinantes apresentaram resultados diferentes, como a singularidade que resultou significância nestes dois grupos, sendo positiva no baixo crescimento e negativa no alto crescimento, para o valor colateral dos ativos e benefício fiscal não dívida apresentaram significância apenas no grupo de baixo crescimento. Para o endividamento a valor de mercado foi observado significância para o Benefício fiscal não dívida e Singularidade. Este resultado reforça o argumento de que o ciclo de vida influência a estrutura de capital

Relationship characteristics within the supply chain of small and medium-sized construction enterprises in Thailand

The Small and Medium-sized construction Enterprises (construction SMEs) in Thailand face challenges like high fragmented structure and low productivity. Many industries improved their business performance using the supply chain integration. This research was conducted by interviewing 14 small and medium Thai building contractors to understand the features and relationship characteristics of the supply chain of construction SMEs. The study reveals that the linkages between the small and medium general contractors and other supply chain members are based on personal trust rather than contract laws, there is no systematic procedure to manage the relationship with clients during the project execution, and social connections help to maintain long-term relationship with clients. Based on the working behaviour and commitment to long-term relationship, six forms of relationship with supply side members are proposed. Finally, improvement measures for the supply chain integration of the construction SMEs in Thailand are presented.

Strategizing and organizing in pluralistic contexts

In this article, the concept of pluralism is used to expose variations in the relationship between organizing and strategizing and the consequences of these variations for managerial practice. Pluralistic contexts are those that are shaped by the divergent goals and interests of different groups inside and outside the organization. Internally, these divergent interests result in multiple organizing processes, while the interests of external stakeholders lead to multiple strategic goals and objectives. Despite the Fact that innate pluralism and the consequent complexity of strategizing and organizing processes are experienced by many organizations in the 21st century, pluralism has been inadequately examined in organisation studies and virtually ignored in the strategy literature. Having defined pluralism and explained its implications for strategizing and organizing practices and processes within organizations, three relevant questions are posed for investigating the nature of organizing and strategizing in pluralistic contexts. Case examples from the public sector, professional services and regulated industries are utilized to provide insights into these questions, and derive a framework that enables the drivers and potential problems of the interdependence between strategizing and organizing to be better understood. Practical implications for managing this interdependence are drawn.

Selected psychosocial and demographic factors affecting levels of pre-retirement planning

In September 2002, the State of Florida implemented a new retirement structure for those employed in the Florida Public School System. Teachers were given the option to maintain their existing defined benefit plan or choose the newly offered defined contribution plan. The variables that affect planning for retirement are innumerable. Identifying the most significant variables is essential to understanding how one plans for retirement. ^ This study examined the relationship between hypothesized psychosocial and demographic factors and an individual's level of pre-retirement planning. The criterion variable, the level of pre-retirement planning, comprised two concepts. First, the time spent thinking about retirement was determined by the score an individual received on a pre-retirement planning scale. This scale included the concepts of information gathering, goals, anticipated resources, and long-range planning. Second, implementation of retirement plan procedures was determined by the percentage an individual annually deferred to retirement. ^ The survey used for data collection contained 50 close-ended items. It was distributed to all full-time teachers in nine randomly selected elementary, middle, and senior high schools throughout Miami-Dade County Public Schools. Multiple regression and crosstabulation indicated that math anxiety, general risk, years of service, and total family income were significant predictors of the level of pre-retirement planning, as measured by the pre-retirement planning scale. In addition, the statistical analysis indicated that math anxiety, internal locus of control, years of service, and total family income were significant predictors of the level pre-retirement planning, as measured by the amount deferred to retirement. An individual's level of math anxiety and family income were the two factors that were the most significant predictors for both concepts on the level of pre-retirement planning. ^ Based on the findings of the study, recommendations focused on assessing an individual's level of math anxiety and educating teachers, particularly pre-service candidates, about the factors that affect pre-retirement planning. Further research should investigate the benefit of such educational programs. ^

Use of structural equation modeling to examine the association between breast cancer risk perception and repeat screening mammography among United States women

Breast cancer is the second leading cause of cancer death in United States women, estimated to be diagnosed in 1 out of 8 women in their lifetime. Screening mammography detects breast cancer in its pre-clinical stages when treatment strategies have the greatest chance of success, and is currently the only population-wide prevention method proven to reduce the morbidity and mortality associated with breast cancer. Research has shown that the majority of women are not screened annually, with estimates ranging front 6% - 30% of eligible women receiving all available annual mammograms over a 5-year or greater time frame. Health behavior theorists believe that perception of risk/susceptibility to a disease influences preventive health behavior, in this case, screening mammography The purpose of this dissertation is to examine the association between breast cancer risk perception and repeat screening mammography using a structural equation modeling (SEM) framework. A series of SEM multivariate regressions were conducted using self-reported, nationally representative data from the 2005 National Health Interview Survey. Interaction contrasts were tested to measure the potential moderating effects of variables which have been shown to be predictive of mammography use (physician recommendation, economic barriers, structural barriers, race/ethnicity) on the association between breast cancer risk perception and repeat mammography, while controlling for the covariates of age, income, region, nativity, and educational level. Of the variables tested for moderation, results of the SEM analyses identify physician recommendation as the only moderator of the relationship between risk perception and repeat mammography, thus the potentially most effective point of intervention to increase mammography screening, and decrease the morbidity and mortality associated with breast cancer. These findings expand the role of the physician from recommendation to one of attenuating the effect of risk perception and increasing repeat screening. The long range application of the research is the use of the SEM methodology to identify specific points of intervention most likely to increase preventive behavior in population-wide research, allowing for the most effective use of intervention funds.^

The effect of domestic credit in the economic *development process

A commonly held view is that creation of excessive domestic credit may lead to inflation problems, however, many economists uphold the possibility that, generous domestic credit under appropriate conditions will result in increases of output. This hypothesis is examined for Japan and Colombia for the period 1950-1993.^ Domestic credit theories are reviewed since the times of Thornton and Smith, until the recent times of Lewis, McKinnon, Stiglitz and of Japanese economists like K. Emi, Tachi R. and others. It is found that in Japan of the Post-War period, efficient financial markets and the decisive role of the government in orienting investment decisions seem to have influenced positively the effectiveness of domestic credit as an output-stimulating variable. On the contrary, in Colombia the absence of the above features seems to explain why domestic credit is not very effective as an output-stimulating variable.^ Multiple regression analyses show that domestic credit is a strong explanatory variable for output increases in Japan and a weak one for Colombia's case in the studied period. For Japan the correlation depicts a positive relationship between the two variables with a decreasing rate very similar to a typical production function. Moreover, the positive decreasing rate is confirmed if net domestic credit is used in the correlations. For Colombia a positive relationship is also found when accumulated domestic credit is used, but, if net domestic credit is the source of correlations, the positive decreasing rate is not obtained.^ Granger causality tests determined causality from domestic credit to output for Japan and no-causality for Colombia at the 1% significance level; the differences are explained by: (1) The low development level of the financial system in Colombia. (2) The nonexistence of consistent domestic credit policy to foster economic development. (3) The lack of an authoritative orientation in the allocation of financial resources and the nonexistence of long range industrialization programs in Colombia that could channel productively credit resources. For the system of equations relating domestic credit and exports, the Granger causality tests determined no-causality between domestic credit and exports for both Japan and Colombia also at the 1% significance level. ^

Long-term chemical characterization of aerosols at CVAO from 2007 to 2011

The first long-term aerosol sampling and chemical characterization results from measurements at the Cape Verde Atmospheric Observatory (CVAO) on the island of São Vicente are presented and are discussed with respect to air mass origin and seasonal trends. In total 671 samples were collected using a high-volume PM10 sampler on quartz fiber filters from January 2007 to December 2011. The samples were analyzed for their aerosol chemical composition, including their ionic and organic constituents. Back trajectory analyses showed that the aerosol at CVAO was strongly influenced by emissions from Europe and Africa, with the latter often responsible for high mineral dust loading. Sea salt and mineral dust dominated the aerosol mass and made up in total about 80% of the aerosol mass. The 5-year PM10 mean was 47.1 ± 55.5 µg/m**2, while the mineral dust and sea salt means were 27.9 ± 48.7 and 11.1 ± 5.5 µg/m**2, respectively. Non-sea-salt (nss) sulfate made up 62% of the total sulfate and originated from both long-range transport from Africa or Europe and marine sources. Strong seasonal variation was observed for the aerosol components. While nitrate showed no clear seasonal variation with an annual mean of 1.1 ± 0.6 µg/m**3, the aerosol mass, OC (organic carbon) and EC (elemental carbon), showed strong winter maxima due to strong influence of African air mass inflow. Additionally during summer, elevated concentrations of OM were observed originating from marine emissions. A summer maximum was observed for non-sea-salt sulfate and was connected to periods when air mass inflow was predominantly of marine origin, indicating that marine biogenic emissions were a significant source. Ammonium showed a distinct maximum in spring and coincided with ocean surface water chlorophyll a concentrations. Good correlations were also observed between nss-sulfate and oxalate during the summer and winter seasons, indicating a likely photochemical in-cloud processing of the marine and anthropogenic precursors of these species. High temporal variability was observed in both chloride and bromide depletion, differing significantly within the seasons, air mass history and Saharan dust concentration. Chloride (bromide) depletion varied from 8.8 ± 8.5% (62 ± 42%) in Saharan-dust-dominated air mass to 30 ± 12% (87 ± 11%) in polluted Europe air masses. During summer, bromide depletion often reached 100% in marine as well as in polluted continental samples. In addition to the influence of the aerosol acidic components, photochemistry was one of the main drivers of halogenide depletion during the summer; while during dust events, displacement reaction with nitric acid was found to be the dominant mechanism. Positive matrix factorization (PMF) analysis identified three major aerosol sources: sea salt, aged sea salt and long-range transport. The ionic budget was dominated by the first two of these factors, while the long-range transport factor could only account for about 14% of the total observed ionic mass.

This Time is Different: Causes and Consequences of British Banking Instability over the Long Run

This paper addresses three questions: (1) How severe were the episodes of banking instability
experienced by the UK over the past two centuries? (2) What have been the macroeconomic
indicators of UK banking instability? and (3) What have been the consequences of UK banking
instability for the cost of credit? Using a unique dataset of bank share prices from 1830 to 2010
to assess the stability of the UK banking system, we find that banking instability has grown more
severe since the 1970s. We also find that interest rates, inflation, lending growth, and equity
prices are consistent macroeconomic indicators of UK banking instability over the long run.
Furthermore, utilising a unique dataset of corporate-bond yields for the period 1860 to 2010, we
find that there is a significant long-run relationship between banking instability and the creditrisk
premium faced by businesses.

Rozwój technologiczny samolotów myśliwskich, a ich taktyka w Royal Air Force oraz US Army Air Force na zachodnioeuropejskim tetrze działań operacyjnych podczas II wojny światowej w latach 1939 – 1944

Wydział Historyczny: Instytut Historii

La construcción de sentido (‘sensemaking’) de un entorno estratégico turbulento por parte de los altos directivos: un estudio en una multinacional automotriz

Este artículo presenta los resultados de una investigación realizada al interior de dos contextos. Por un lado, el teórico, en el marco de uno de los discursos más relevantes en los campos de la estrategia organizacional, de la managerial and organizational cognition (MOC) y, en general, de los estudios organizacionales (organization studies): la construcción de sentido (sensemaking). Por el otro, el empírico, en una de las grandes compañías multinacionales del sector automotriz con presencia global. Esta corporación enfrenta una permanente tensión entre lo que dicta la casa matriz, en relación con el cumplimiento de metas y estándares específicos, considerando el mundo entero, y los retos que, teniendo en cuenta lo regional y lo local, experimentan los altos directivos encargados de hacer prosperar la empresa en estos lugares. La aproximación implementada fue cualitativa. Esto en atención a la naturaleza de la problemática abordada y la tradición del campo. Los resultados permiten ampliar el actual nivel de comprensión acerca de los procesos de sensemaking de los altos directivos al enfrentar un entorno estratégico turbulento.

How long is the memory of the US stock market?

The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), one of the most important hypothesis in financial economics, argues that return rates have no memory (correlation) which implies that agents cannot make abnormal profits in financial markets, due to the possibility of arbitrage operations. With return rates for the US stock market, we corroborate the fact that with a linear approach, return rates do not show evidence of correlation. However, linear approaches might not be complete or global, since return rates could suffer from nonlinearities. Using detrended cross-correlation analysis and its correlation coefficient, a methodology which analyzes long-range behavior between series, we show that the long-range correlation of return rates only ends in the 149th lag, which corresponds to about seven months. Does this result undermine the EMH?

Do Global CO2 Emissions from Fossil-Fuel Consumption Exhibit Long Memory? A Fractional Integration Analysis

In this article we use an autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average approach to measure the degree of fractional integration of aggregate world CO2 emissions and its five components – coal, oil, gas, cement, and gas flaring. We find that all variables are stationary and mean reverting, but exhibit long-term memory. Our results suggest that both coal and oil combustion emissions have the weakest degree of long-range dependence, while emissions from gas and gas flaring have the strongest. With evidence of long memory, we conclude that transitory policy shocks are likely to have long-lasting effects, but not permanent effects. Accordingly, permanent effects on CO2 emissions require a more permanent policy stance. In this context, if one were to rely only on testing for stationarity and non-stationarity, one would likely conclude in favour of non-stationarity, and therefore that even transitory policy shocks

An investigation of nucleation events in a coastal urban environment in the southern hemisphere

The occurrence of and conditions favourable to nucleation were investigated at an industrial and commercial coastal location in Brisbane, Australia during five different campaigns covering a total period of 13 months. To identify potential nucleation events, the difference in number concentration in the size range 14-30 nm (N14-30) between consecutive observations was calculated using first-order differencing. The data showed that nucleation events were a rare occurrence, and that in the absence of nucleation the particle number was dominated by particles in the range 30-300 nm. In many instances, total particle concentration declined during nucleation. There was no clear pattern in change in NO and NO2 concentrations during the events. SO2 concentration, in the majority of cases, declined during nucleation but there were exceptions. Most events took place in summer, followed by winter and then spring, and no events were observed for the autumn campaigns. The events were associated with sea breeze and long-range transport. Roadside emissions, in contrast, did not contribute to nucleation, probably due to the predominance of particles in the range 50-100 nm associated with these emissions.