Simulation of the load-unload response ratio and critical sensitivity in the lattice solid model

The Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is an intermediate-term earthquake prediction approach that has shown considerable promise. It involves calculating the ratio of a specified energy release measure during loading and unloading where loading and unloading periods are determined from the earth tide induced perturbations in the Coulomb Failure Stress on optimally oriented faults. In the lead-up to large earthquakes, high LURR values are frequently observed a few months or years prior to the event. These signals may have a similar origin to the observed accelerating seismic moment release (AMR) prior to many large earthquakes or may be due to critical sensitivity of the crust when a large earthquake is imminent. As a first step towards studying the underlying physical mechanism for the LURR observations, numerical studies are conducted using the particle based lattice solid model (LSM) to determine whether LURR observations can be reproduced. The model is initialized as a heterogeneous 2-D block made up of random-sized particles bonded by elastic-brittle links. The system is subjected to uniaxial compression from rigid driving plates on the upper and lower edges of the model. Experiments are conducted using both strain and stress control to load the plates. A sinusoidal stress perturbation is added to the gradual compressional loading to simulate loading and unloading cycles and LURR is calculated. The results reproduce signals similar to those observed in earthquake prediction practice with a high LURR value followed by a sudden drop prior to macroscopic failure of the sample. The results suggest that LURR provides a good predictor for catastrophic failure in elastic-brittle systems and motivate further research to study the underlying physical mechanisms and statistical properties of high LURR values. The results provide encouragement for earthquake prediction research and the use of advanced simulation models to probe the physics of earthquakes.

Load-unload response ratio and accelerating moment/energy release critical region scaling and earthquake prediction

The main idea of the Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) is that when a system is stable, its response to loading corresponds to its response to unloading, whereas when the system is approaching an unstable state, the response to loading and unloading becomes quite different. High LURR values and observations of Accelerating Moment/Energy Release (AMR/AER) prior to large earthquakes have led different research groups to suggest intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible and imply that the LURR and AMR/AER observations may have a similar physical origin. To study this possibility, we conducted a retrospective examination of several Australian and Chinese earthquakes with magnitudes ranging from 5.0 to 7.9, including Australia's deadly Newcastle earthquake and the devastating Tangshan earthquake. Both LURR values and best-fit power-law time-to-failure functions were computed using data within a range of distances from the epicenter. Like the best-fit power-law fits in AMR/AER, the LURR value was optimal using data within a certain epicentral distance implying a critical region for LURR. Furthermore, LURR critical region size scales with mainshock magnitude and is similar to the AMR/AER critical region size. These results suggest a common physical origin for both the AMR/AER and LURR observations. Further research may provide clues that yield an understanding of this mechanism and help lead to a solid foundation for intermediate-term earthquake prediction.

Critical comparison of Julius Kruttschnitt Mineral Research Centre (JKMRC) blast fragmentation models

Blast fragmentation can have a significant impact on the profitability of a mine. An optimum run of mine (ROM) size distribution is required to maximise the performance of downstream processes. If this fragmentation size distribution can be modelled and controlled, the operation will have made a significant advancement towards improving its performance. Blast fragmentation modelling is an important step in Mine to Mill™ optimisation. It allows the estimation of blast fragmentation distributions for a number of different rock mass, blast geometry, and explosive parameters. These distributions can then be modelled in downstream mining and milling processes to determine the optimum blast design. When a blast hole is detonated rock breakage occurs in two different stress regions - compressive and tensile. In the-first region, compressive stress waves form a 'crushed zone' directly adjacent to the blast hole. The second region, termed the 'cracked zone', occurs outside the crush one. The widely used Kuz-Ram model does not recognise these two blast regions. In the Kuz-Ram model the mean fragment size from the blast is approximated and is then used to estimate the remaining size distribution. Experience has shown that this model predicts the coarse end reasonably accurately, but it can significantly underestimate the amount of fines generated. As part of the Australian Mineral Industries Research Association (AMIRA) P483A Mine to Mill™ project, the Two-Component Model (TCM) and Crush Zone Model (CZM), developed by the Julius Kruttschnitt Mineral Research Centre (JKMRC), were compared and evaluated to measured ROM fragmentation distributions. An important criteria for this comparison was the variation of model results from measured ROM in the-fine to intermediate section (1-100 mm) of the fragmentation curve. This region of the distribution is important for Mine to Mill™ optimisation. The comparison of modelled and Split ROM fragmentation distributions has been conducted in harder ores (UCS greater than 80 MPa). Further work involves modelling softer ores. The comparisons will be continued with future site surveys to increase confidence in the comparison of the CZM and TCM to Split results. Stochastic fragmentation modelling will then be conducted to take into account variation of input parameters. A window of possible fragmentation distributions can be compared to those obtained by Split . Following this work, an improved fragmentation model will be developed in response to these findings.

Resolu????o simplificadora de formalidades e procedimentos relativos aos atos de que trata o art. 54 da Lei n?? 8.884 de 11 de junho 1994

O controle de ag??ncias de defesa da concorr??ncia sobre a estrutura dos mercados constitui pr??tica comum em pa??ses maduros e vem ganhando import??ncia crescente em economias emergentes. Tal atividade envolve exame de atos de concentra????o econ??mica tais como fus??es, aquisi????es, joint ventures ou incorpora????es. No Brasil este tipo de controle ?? recente, tendo sido institu??do pela Lei n?? 8.884, de junho de 1994. Desde ent??o, o Conselho Administrativo de Defesa da Concorr??ncia - CADE julgou 29 (vinte e nove) atos de concentra????o, em contraste com a experi??ncia secular de pa??ses como EUA, Canad?? e Austr??lia e de v??rias d??cadas nas na????es europ??ias depois da Segunda Guerra. A exemplo de v??rias outras ??reas de pol??tica p??blica, tornou-se imperativo agilizar os ??rg??os de defesa da concorr??ncia. Isto decorre, entre outros fatores, do intenso processo de reestrutura????o produtiva em curso no pa??s associados ?? desestatiza????o e abertura da economia. Diante das circunst??ncias descritas, ?? preciso assegurar agilidade, transpar??ncia, excel??ncia t??cnica no processo decis??rio e estabilidade de regras, todos ingredientes indispens??veis para gerar seguran??a jur??dica. Esta ??ltima, por seu turno, diminui o risco do investimento, estimulando invers??es, produ????o e emprego. Nesse sentido, o CADE promoveu mudan??as importantes no procedimento de an??lise de atos de concentra????o em colabora????o com a Secretaria de Direito Econ??mico do Minist??rio da Justi??a (SDE) e a Secretaria de Acompanhamento Econ??mico do Minist??rio da Fazenda (SEAE) mediante a edi????o da Resolu????o 5, de 28 de agosto de 1996

Exclusi??n social y pol??ticas de inclusi??n. Algunos elementos sobre la realidad europea y espa??ola

La globalizaci??n econ??mica ha impactado fuertemente en el mercado laboral europeo, abriendo puertas para el trabajo precario. Mientras el capital se torna global, el trabajo permanece local y m??s sumiso a los flujos econ??micos mundiales. Adem??s, los patrones de la sociedad de consumo se han consolidado, promoviendo nuevas desigualdades sociales y aumentando los riesgos de exclusi??n y vulnerabilidad social. La ca??da progresiva del industrialismo tambi??n afecta las principales bases de la estructura social como los roles de g??nero o las relaciones familiares. Diferentes redes aparecen como clave para la inclusi??n, especialmente en el actual contexto de crisis del Estado de Bienestar Social en que se encuentra Europa. Es decir, el an??lisis de la exclusi??n social debe tener en cuenta la evoluci??n de las pol??ticas sociales en toda Europa y la tendencia actual de descentralizaci??n y focalizaci??n de los ser vicios sociales. El objetivo de este art??culo es, por lo tanto, no s??lo describir el fen??meno de la exclusi??n social, sino tambi??n lanzar ideas para construir nuevos criterios de redefinici??n de las pol??ticas sociales.

O administrador p??blico tipo delta para o s??culo 21

O artigo estuda um aspecto da reforma do Estado que, segundo o autor, tem sido sistematicamente negligenciado pelas atuais propostas que focalizam o modelo da administra????o gerencial. Trata-se das fun????es vitais do governo de tomar decis??es cr??ticas e adotar pol??ticas diante das mudan??as provocadas pela revolu????o global. Segundo Dror, as tarefas de alto comando (high-order tasks) de definir trajet??rias e as novas formas de governan??a exigem um ajuste significativo do governo central. Este ajuste refere-se, principalmente, ?? concep????o e ao desenvolvimento de um novo padr??o de funcion??rios do primeiro escal??o p??blico, o qual contribuiria com conhecimento e perspectivas para enfrentar as tarefas de alto comando. O autor estabelece uma tipologia para caraterizar a evolu????o do perfil do servi??o p??blico, marcando suas fases hist??ricas: a) tipo alpha (status atribu??do, fus??o de pap??is pol??ticos e administrativos); b) tipo beta (compra de cargos governamentais) e c) tipo gamma (quase profissionalismo). O novo funcion??rio s??nior, do tipo delta, se concentraria nas quest??es de ordem estrat??gica, deixando as fun????es gerenciais para servidores do tipo gamma e para os servi??os t??cnicos. Ap??s uma breve an??lise, Dror conclui que o funcionalismo p??blico de primeiro escal??o, na maioria dos pa??ses (com exce????o de alguns pa??ses do Sudeste Asi??tico), encontra-se obsoleto, com base profissional inadequada e capacidade insuficiente para lidar com escolhas cr??ticas.

Introdu????o ?? cr??tica da raz??o desestatizante

O artigo compreende uma vis??o cr??tica sobre os processos de reestrutura????o do Estado baseados na l??gica neoliberal, que caracterizam as reformas minimalistas da d??cada de 80. O tema da reforma do Estado ?? visto como um dos grandes desafios intelectuais e pol??ticos deste fim de s??culo, devendo necessariamente ser contextualizado historicamente, uma vez que n??o existe uma ??nica crise do Estado, mas v??rias crises dos Estados espec??ficas e particulares, cujas solu????es n??o s??o ??nicas nem universais, mas dependentes do diagn??stico de cada caso. Entende-se que a raz??o desestatizante apresenta limita????es, reconhecidas at?? mesmo pelas institui????es financeiras internacionais que antes a defendiam. O cen??rio de um novo modo de atua????o estatal ?? apresentado como mais prov??vel, sendo o conceito de reestatiza????o mais adequado para as mudan??as que se fazem necess??rias.

As reformas administrativas no Brasil: modelos, sucessos e fracassos

O artigo rev??, com base na bibliografia especializada, as reformas e tentativas de reformas administrativas realizadas no pa??s, desde o Estado Novo, passando pelas tentativas dos governos militares e pelas propostas mais recentes da Nova Rep??blica, e chegando at?? a reforma Bresser Pereira. O balan??o cr??tico ?? bastante negativo, sobretudo, porque as grandes reformas, precisamente pela sua abrang??ncia, nunca foram efetivamente implementadas. O sistema do m??rito no servi??o p??blico federal ?? um bom exemplo. As dificuldades de implementa????o das grandes reformas, advindas principalmente de sua grande complexidade, resultam tamb??m de sua intera????o negativa com o contexto pol??tico mais geral, pela carga ret??rica de que se fazem acompanhar, e pelo fato de subestimarem os aspectos t??cnicos necess??rios ?? sua implementa????o.