Community-wide spatial and temporal discordances of seed-seedling shadows in a tropical rainforest

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Space–time zero-inflated count models of Harbor seals

Environmental data are spatial, temporal, and often come with many zeros. In this paper, we included space–time random effects in zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) and ‘hurdle’ models to investigate haulout patterns of harbor seals on glacial ice. The data consisted of counts, for 18 dates on a lattice grid of samples, of harbor seals hauled out on glacial ice in Disenchantment Bay, near Yakutat, Alaska. A hurdle model is similar to a ZIP model except it does not mix zeros from the binary and count processes. Both models can be used for zero-inflated data, and we compared space–time ZIP and hurdle models in a Bayesian hierarchical model. Space–time ZIP and hurdle models were constructed by using spatial conditional autoregressive (CAR) models and temporal first-order autoregressive (AR(1)) models as random effects in ZIP and hurdle regression models. We created maps of smoothed predictions for harbor seal counts based on ice density, other covariates, and spatio-temporal random effects. For both models predictions around the edges appeared to be positively biased. The linex loss function is an asymmetric loss function that penalizes overprediction more than underprediction, and we used it to correct for prediction bias to get the best map for space–time ZIP and hurdle models.

Changes in intrapopulation resource use patterns of an endangered raptor in response to a disease-mediated crash in prey abundance

1. A long-standing question in ecology is how natural populations respond to a changing environment. Emergent optimal foraging theory-based models for individual variation go beyond the population level and predict how its individuals would respond to disturbances that produce changes in resource availability. 2. Evaluating variations in resource use patterns at the intrapopulation level in wild populations under changing environmental conditions would allow to further advance in the research on foraging ecology and evolution by gaining a better idea of the underlying mechanisms explaining trophic diversity. 3. In this study, we use a large spatio-temporal scale data set (western continental Europe, 19682006) on the diet of Bonellis Eagle Aquila fasciata breeding pairs to analyse the predator trophic responses at the intrapopulation level to a prey population crash. In particular, we borrow metrics from studies on network structure and intrapopulation variation to understand how an emerging infectious disease [the rabbit haemorrhagic disease (RHD)] that caused the density of the eagles primary prey (rabbit Oryctolagus cuniculus) to dramatically drop across Europe impacted on resource use patterns of this endangered raptor. 4. Following the major RHD outbreak, substantial changes in Bonellis Eagles diet diversity and organisation patterns at the intrapopulation level took place. Dietary variation among breeding pairs was larger after than before the outbreak. Before RHD, there were no clusters of pairs with similar diets, but significant clustering emerged after RHD. Moreover, diets at the pair level presented a nested pattern before RHD, but not after. 5. Here, we reveal how intrapopulation patterns of resource use can quantitatively and qualitatively vary, given drastic changes in resource availability. 6. For the first time, we show that a pathogen of a prey species can indirectly impact the intrapopulation patterns of resource use of an endangered predator.

Sero-epidemiological evaluation of changes in Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax transmission patterns over the rainy season in Cambodia

Background: In Cambodia, malaria transmission is low and most cases occur in forested areas. Seroepidemiological techniques can be used to identify both areas of ongoing transmission and high-risk groups to be targeted by control interventions. This study utilizes repeated cross-sectional data to assess the risk of being malaria sero-positive at two consecutive time points during the rainy season and investigates who is most likely to sero-convert over the transmission season. Methods: In 2005, two cross-sectional surveys, one in the middle and the other at the end of the malaria transmission season, were carried out in two ecologically distinct regions in Cambodia. Parasitological and serological data were collected in four districts. Antibodies to Plasmodium falciparum Glutamate Rich Protein (GLURP) and Plasmodium vivax Merozoite Surface Protein-119 (MSP-119) were detected using Enzyme Linked Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA). The force of infection was estimated using a simple catalytic model fitted using maximum likelihood methods. Risks for sero-converting during the rainy season were analysed using the Classification and Regression Tree (CART) method. Results: A total of 804 individuals participating in both surveys were analysed. The overall parasite prevalence was low (4.6% and 2.0% for P. falciparum and 7.9% and 6.0% for P. vivax in August and November respectively). P. falciparum force of infection was higher in the eastern region and increased between August and November, whilst P. vivax force of infection was higher in the western region and remained similar in both surveys. In the western region, malaria transmission changed very little across the season (for both species). CART analysis for P. falciparum in the east highlighted age, ethnicity, village of residence and forest work as important predictors for malaria exposure during the rainy season. Adults were more likely to increase their antibody responses to P. falciparum during the transmission season than children, whilst members of the Charay ethnic group demonstrated the largest increases. Discussion: In areas of low transmission intensity, such as in Cambodia, the analysis of longitudinal serological data enables a sensitive evaluation of transmission dynamics. Consecutive serological surveys allow an insight into spatio-temporal patterns of malaria transmission. The use of CART enabled multiple interactions to be accounted for simultaneously and permitted risk factors for exposure to be clearly identified.

Dynamic texture segmentation based on deterministic partially self-avoiding walks

Recently there has been a considerable interest in dynamic textures due to the explosive growth of multimedia databases. In addition, dynamic texture appears in a wide range of videos, which makes it very important in applications concerning to model physical phenomena. Thus, dynamic textures have emerged as a new field of investigation that extends the static or spatial textures to the spatio-temporal domain. In this paper, we propose a novel approach for dynamic texture segmentation based on automata theory and k-means algorithm. In this approach, a feature vector is extracted for each pixel by applying deterministic partially self-avoiding walks on three orthogonal planes of the video. Then, these feature vectors are clustered by the well-known k-means algorithm. Although the k-means algorithm has shown interesting results, it only ensures its convergence to a local minimum, which affects the final result of segmentation. In order to overcome this drawback, we compare six methods of initialization of the k-means. The experimental results have demonstrated the effectiveness of our proposed approach compared to the state-of-the-art segmentation methods.

Analisi e valutazione delle performance acustiche degli aeromobili nella fase di atterraggio

Nella tesi si analizzano le principali fonti del rumore aeronautico, lo stato dell'arte dal punto di vista normativo, tecnologico e procedurale. Si analizza lo stato dell'arte anche riguardo alla classificazione degli aeromobili, proponendo un nuovo indice prestazionale in alternativa a quello indicato dalla metodologia di certificazione (AC36-ICAO) Allo scopo di diminuire l'impatto acustico degli aeromobili in fase di atterraggio, si analizzano col programma INM i benefici di procedure CDA a 3° rispetto alle procedure tradizionali e, di seguito di procedure CDA ad angoli maggiori in termini di riduzione di lunghezza e di area delle isofoniche SEL85, SEL80 e SEL75.

A comprehensive study of the 26th December 2004 Sumatra earthquake: possible implications on Earth rotation and investigations on the coseismic and postseismic stress diffusion associated with the seismic rupture

In this work a multidisciplinary study of the December 26th, 2004 Sumatra earthquake has been carried out. We have investigated both the effect of the earthquake on the Earth rotation and the stress field variations associated with the seismic event. In the first part of the work we have quantified the effects of a water mass redistribution associated with the propagation of a tsunami wave on the Earth’s pole path and on the length-of-day (LOD) and applied our modeling results to the tsunami following the 2004 giant Sumatra earthquake. We compared the result of our simulations on the instantaneous rotational axis variations with some preliminary instrumental evidences on the pole path perturbation (which has not been confirmed yet) registered just after the occurrence of the earthquake, which showed a step-like discontinuity that cannot be attributed to the effect of a seismic dislocation. Our results show that the perturbation induced by the tsunami on the instantaneous rotational pole is characterized by a step-like discontinuity, which is compatible with the observations but its magnitude turns out to be almost one hundred times smaller than the detected one. The LOD variation induced by the water mass redistribution turns out to be not significant because the total effect is smaller than current measurements uncertainties. In the second part of this work of thesis we modeled the coseismic and postseismic stress evolution following the Sumatra earthquake. By means of a semi-analytical, viscoelastic, spherical model of global postseismic deformation and a numerical finite-element approach, we performed an analysis of the stress diffusion following the earthquake in the near and far field of the mainshock source. We evaluated the stress changes due to the Sumatra earthquake by projecting the Coulomb stress over the sequence of aftershocks taken from various catalogues in a time window spanning about two years and finally analyzed the spatio-temporal pattern. The analysis performed with the semi-analytical and the finite-element modeling gives a complex picture of the stress diffusion, in the area under study, after the Sumatra earthquake. We believe that the results obtained with the analytical method suffer heavily for the restrictions imposed, on the hypocentral depths of the aftershocks, in order to obtain the convergence of the harmonic series of the stress components. On the contrary we imposed no constraints on the numerical method so we expect that the results obtained give a more realistic description of the stress variations pattern.

Letteratura postmoderna e comunicazione pubblicitaria, problemi teorici e analisi testuali

Premise: In the literary works of our anthropological and cultural imagination, the various languages and the different discursive practices are not necessarily quoted, expressly alluded to or declared through clear expressive mechanisms; instead, they rather constitute a substratum, a background, now consolidated, which with irony and intertextuality shines through the thematic and formal elements of each text. The various contaminations, hybridizations and promptings that we find in the expressive forms, the rhetorical procedures and the linguistic and thematic choices of post-modern literary texts are shaped as fluid and familiar categories. Exchanges and passages are no longer only allowed but also inevitable; the post-modern imagination is made up of an agglomeration of discourses that are no longer really separable, built up from texts that blend and quote one another, composing, each with its own specificities, the great family of the cultural products of our social scenario. A literary work, therefore, is not only a whole phenomenon, delimited hic et nunc by a beginning and an ending, but is a fragment of that complex, dense and boundless network that is given by the continual interrelations between human forms of communication and symbolization. The research hypothesis: A vision is delineated of comparative literature as a discipline attentive to the social contexts in which texts take shape and move and to the media-type consistency that literary phenomena inevitably take on. Hence literature is seen as an open systematicity that chooses to be contaminated by other languages and other discursive practices of an imagination that is more than ever polymorphic and irregular. Inside this interpretative framework the aim is to focus the analysis on the relationship that postmodern literature establishes with advertising discourse. On one side post-modern literature is inserted in the world of communication, loudly asserting the blending and reciprocal contamination of literary modes with media ones, absorbing their languages and signification practices, translating them now into thematic nuclei, motifs and sub-motifs and now into formal expedients and new narrative choices; on the other side advertising is chosen as a signification practice of the media universe, which since the 1960s has actively contributed to shaping the dynamics of our socio-cultural scenarios, in terms which are just as important as those of other discursive practices. Advertising has always been a form of communication and symbolization that draws on the collective imagination – myths, actors and values – turning them into specific narrative programs for its own texts. Hence the aim is to interpret and analyze this relationship both from a strictly thematic perspective – and therefore trying to understand what literature speaks about when it speaks about advertising, and seeking advertising quotations in post-modern fiction – and from a formal perspective, with a search for parallels and discordances between the rhetorical procedures, the languages and the verifiable stylistic choices in the texts of the two different signification practices. The analysis method chosen, for the purpose of constructive multiplication of the perspectives, aims to approach the analytical processes of semiotics, applying, when possible, the instruments of the latter, in order to highlight the thematic and formal relationships between literature and advertising. The corpus: The corpus of the literary texts is made up of various novels and, although attention is focused on the post-modern period, there will also be ineludible quotations from essential authors that with their works prompted various reflections: H. De Balzac, Zola, Fitzgerald, Joyce, Calvino, etc… However, the analysis focuses the corpus on three authors: Don DeLillo, Martin Amis and Aldo Nove, and in particular the followings novels: “Americana” (1971) and “Underworld” (1999) by Don DeLillo, “Money” (1984) by Martin Amis and “Woobinda and other stories without a happy ending” (1996) and “Superwoobinda” (1998) by Aldo Nove. The corpus selection is restricted to these novels for two fundamental reasons: 1. assuming parameters of spatio-temporal evaluation, the texts are representative of different socio-cultural contexts and collective imaginations (from the masterly glimpses of American life by DeLillo, to the examples of contemporary Italian life by Nove, down to the English imagination of Amis) and of different historical moments (the 1970s of DeLillo’s Americana, the 1980s of Amis, down to the 1990s of Nove, decades often used as criteria of division of postmodernism into phases); 2. adopting a perspective of strictly thematic analysis, as mentioned in the research hypothesis, the variations and the constants in the novels (thematic nuclei, topoi, images and narrative developments) frequently speak of advertising and inside the narrative plot they affirm various expressions and realizations of it: value ones, thematic ones, textual ones, urban ones, etc… In these novels the themes and the processes of signification of advertising discourse pervade time, space and the relationships that the narrator character builds around him. We are looking at “particle-characters” whose endless facets attest the influence and contamination of advertising in a large part of the narrative developments of the plot: on everyday life, on the processes of acquisition and encoding of the reality, on ideological and cultural baggage, on the relationships and interchanges with the other characters, etc… Often the characters are victims of the implacable consequentiality of the advertising mechanism, since the latter gets the upper hand over the usual processes of communication, which are overwhelmed by it, wittingly or unwittingly (for example: disturbing openings in which the protagonist kills his or her parents on the basis of a spot, former advertisers that live life codifying it through the commercial mechanisms of products, sons and daughters of advertisers that as children instead of playing outside for whole nights saw tapes of spots.) Hence the analysis arises from the text and aims to show how much the developments and the narrative plots of the novels encode, elaborate and recount the myths, the values and the narrative programs of advertising discourse, transforming them into novel components in their own right. And also starting from the text a socio-cultural reference context is delineated, a collective imagination that is different, now geographically, now historically, and from comparison between them the aim is to deduce the constants, the similarities and the variations in the relationship between literature and advertising.

The role of the West African Monsoon in the tropical to mid-latitudes climate

The interaction between atmosphere–land–ocean–biosphere systems plays a prominent role on the atmospheric dynamics and on the convective rainfall distribution over the West Africa monsoon area during the boreal summer. In particular, the initialization of convective systems in the Sub – Sahelian region has been directly linked to soil moisture heterogeneities identified as the major triggering, development and propagation of convective systems. The present study aims at investigating African monsoon large scale convective dynamics and rainfall diurnal cycle through an exploration of the hypothesis behind the mechanisms of a monsoon phenomenon as an emergence of a collective dynamics of many propagating convective systems. Such hypothesis is based on the existence of an internal self – regulation mechanism among the various components. To achieve these results a multiple analysis was performed based on remote sensed rainfall dataset, and global and regional modelling data for a period of 5 seasons: 2004 - 2008. Satellite rainfall data and convective occurrence variability were studied for assessing typical spatio – temporal signatures and characteristics with an emphasis to the diurnal cycle footprint. A global model and regional model simulation datasets, specifically developed for this analysis and based on Regional Atmospheric Modelling System – RAMS, have been analysed. Results from numerical model datasets highlight the evidence of a synchronization between the destabilization of the convective boundary layer and rainfall occurrence due to the solar radiation forcing through the latent heat release. This supports the conclusion that the studied interacting systems are associated with a process of mutual adjustment of rhythms. Furthermore, this rainfall internal coherence was studied in relation to the West African Heat Low pressure system, which has a prominent role in the large scale summer variability over the Mediterranean area since it is acting as one of dynamic link between sub tropical and midlatitudes variability.

Analisi climatica ad alta risoluzione delle precipitazioni sul nord Italia (1961-2005)

L’obiettivo di questo lavoro di tesi è di ottenere un’analisi climatica giornaliera ad alta risoluzione della precipitazione sul territorio del nord Italia realizzata con tecniche di controllo statistico, di analisi e di strumenti di descrizione dei risultati presentati nella recente letteratura. A tal fine, sono stati utilizzati i dati dell’Archivio ARCIS. In seguito alle fasi di controllo qualità, omogeneità e sincronicità i dati sono stati utilizzati per realizzare un’analisi giornaliera su grigliato regolare a 10 km di risoluzione utile alla rappresentazione della variabilità spazio-temporale della precipitazione sul Nord Italia per il periodo 1961-2005. I risultati di tale analisi mettono in evidenza dei valori medi di precipitazione annuale abbastanza intensi sulla parte centrale dell’arco Alpino, con massimi (oltre 2000 mm) sull’estremità orientale e sull’Appennino Ligure. Valori minimi (500 – 600 mm) sono osservati lungo le aree prospicienti il fiume Po, in Val d’Aosta ed in Alto Adige. La corrispondente analisi del trend temporale indica la presenza di lievi cali statisticamente significativi solo in aree limitate del territorio. In coerenza con questi risultati, la variazione nel tempo della precipitazione annuale mediata su tutto il territorio mette in evidenza un’intensa variabilità decennale, ma solo una lieve flessione lineare sull’intero periodo. Il numero annuo di giorni piovosi ed il 90° percentile della precipitazione giornaliera presentano invece trend lineari un po’ più pronunciati. In particolare, sul periodo considerato si nota un calo del numero di giorni piovosi su gran parte del territorio e solo su alcune aree del territorio un aumento dell’intensità del 90° percentile, sia a scala annuale che stagionale. Nell’ultima parte di questo lavoro è stato realizzato uno studio della relazione fra la forzante climatica e l’evoluzione della morfologia dell’Appennino Emiliano-Romagnolo. I risultati mostrano che a parità di quota, di pendenza e di litologia, la franosità è influenzata dalle precipitazioni.

Spatial and temporal variation in population genetic structure of wild Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) across Africa

Background: Reconstructing the evolutionary history of a species is challenging. It often depends not only on the past biogeographic and climatic events but also the contemporary and ecological factors, such as current connectivity and habitat heterogeneity. In fact, these factors might interact with each other and shape the current species distribution. However, to what extent the current population genetic structure reflects the past and the contemporary factors is largely unknown. Here we investigated spatio-temporal genetic structures of Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) populations, across their natural distribution in Africa. While its large biogeographic distribution can cause genetic differentiation at the paleo-biogeographic scales, its restricted dispersal capacity might induce a strong genetic structure at micro-geographic scales. Results: Using nine microsatellite loci and 350 samples from ten natural populations, we found the highest genetic differentiation among the three ichthyofaunal provinces and regions (Ethiopian, Nilotic and Sudano-Sahelian) (R(ST) = 0.38 - 0.69). This result suggests the predominant effect of paleo-geographic events at macro-geographic scale. In addition, intermediate divergences were found between rivers and lakes within the regions, presumably reflecting relatively recent interruptions of gene flow between hydrographic basins (R(ST) = 0.24 - 0.32). The lowest differentiations were observed among connected populations within a basin (R(ST) = 0.015 in the Volta basin). Comparison of temporal sample series revealed subtle changes in the gene pools in a few generations (F = 0 - 0.053). The estimated effective population sizes were 23 - 143 and the estimated migration rate was moderate (m similar to 0.094 - 0.097) in the Volta populations. Conclusions: This study revealed clear hierarchical patterns of the population genetic structuring of O. niloticus in Africa. The effects of paleo-geographic and climatic events were predominant at macro-geographic scale, and the significant effect of geographic connectivity was detected at micro-geographic scale. The estimated effective population size, the moderate level of dispersal and the rapid temporal change in genetic composition might reflect a potential effect of life history strategy on population dynamics. This hypothesis deserves further investigation. The dynamic pattern revealed at micro-geographic and temporal scales appears important from a genetic resource management as well as from a biodiversity conservation point of view.

Debris-flow activity in abandoned channels of the Manival torrent reconstructed with LiDAR and tree-ring data

Hydrogeomorphic processes are a major threat in many parts of the Alps, where they periodically damage infrastructure, disrupt transportation corridors or even cause loss of life. Nonetheless, past torrential activity and the analysis of areas affected during particular events remain often imprecise. It was therefore the purpose of this study to reconstruct spatio-temporal patterns of past debris-flow activity in abandoned channels on the forested cone of the Manival torrent (Massif de la Chartreuse, French Prealps). A Light Detecting and Ranging (LiDAR) generated Digital Elevation Model (DEM) was used to identify five abandoned channels and related depositional forms (lobes, lateral levees) in the proximal alluvial fan of the torrent. A total of 156 Scots pine trees (Pinus sylvestris L.) with clear signs of debris flow events was analyzed and growth disturbances (GD) assessed, such as callus tissue, the onset of compression wood or abrupt growth suppression. In total, 375 GD were identified in the tree-ring samples, pointing to 13 debris-flow events for the period 1931–2008. While debris flows appear to be very common at Manival, they have only rarely propagated outside the main channel over the past 80 years. Furthermore, analysis of the spatial distribution of disturbed trees contributed to the identification of four patterns of debris-flow routing and led to the determination of three preferential breakout locations. Finally, the results of this study demonstrate that the temporal distribution of debris flows did not exhibit significant variations since the beginning of the 20th century.

Interleukin-6 is an efficacious marker of axonal transport disruption during experimental glaucoma and stimulates neuritogenesis in cultured retinal ganglion cells

It is increasingly recognised that chronically activated glia contribute to the pathology of various neurodegenerative diseases, including glaucoma. One means by which this can occur is through the release of neurotoxic, proinflammatory factors. In the current study, we therefore investigated the spatio-temporal patterns of expression of three such cytokines, IL-1β, TNFα and IL-6, in a validated rat model of experimental glaucoma. First, only weak evidence was found for increased expression of IL-1β and TNFα following induction of ocular hypertension. Second, and much more striking, was that robust evidence was uncovered showing IL-6 to be synthesised by injured retinal ganglion cells following elevation of intraocular pressure and transported in an orthograde fashion along the nerve, accumulating at sites of axonal disruption in the optic nerve head. Verification that IL-6 represents a novel marker of disrupted axonal transport in this model was obtained by performing double labelling immunofluorescence with recognised markers of fast axonal transport. The stimulus for IL-6 synthesis and axonal transport during experimental glaucoma arose from axonal injury rather than ocular hypertension, as the response was identical after optic nerve crush and bilateral occlusion of the carotid arteries, each of which is independent of elevated intraocular pressure. Moreover, the response of IL-6 was not a generalised feature of the gp130 family of cytokines, as it was not mimicked by another family member, ciliary neurotrophic factor. Finally, further study suggested that IL-6 may be an early part of the endogenous regenerative response as the cytokine colocalised with growth-associated membrane phosphoprotein-43 in some putative regenerating axons, and potently stimulated neuritogenesis in retinal ganglion cells in culture, an effect that was additive to that of ciliary neurotrophic factor. These data comprise clear evidence that IL-6 is actively involved in the attempt of injured retinal ganglion cells to regenerate their axons.

Limitations of Remotely-sensed Aerosol as a Spatial Proxy for Fine Particulate Matter

Recent research highlights the promise of remotely-sensed aerosol optical depth (AOD) as a proxy for ground-level PM2.5. Particular interest lies in the information on spatial heterogeneity potentially provided by AOD, with important application to estimating and monitoring pollution exposure for public health purposes. Given the temporal and spatio-temporal correlations reported between AOD and PM2.5 , it is tempting to interpret the spatial patterns in AOD as reflecting patterns in PM2.5 . Here we find only limited spatial associations of AOD from three satellite retrievals with PM2.5 over the eastern U.S. at the daily and yearly levels in 2004. We then use statistical modeling to show that the patterns in monthly average AOD poorly reflect patterns in PM2.5 because of systematic, spatially-correlated error in AOD as a proxy for PM2.5 . Furthermore, when we include AOD as a predictor of monthly PM2.5 in a statistical prediction model, AOD provides little additional information to improve predictions of PM2.5 when included in a model that already accounts for land use, emission sources, meteorology and regional variability. These results suggest caution in using spatial variation in AOD to stand in for spatial variation in ground-level PM2.5 in epidemiological analyses and indicate that when PM2.5 monitoring is available, careful statistical modeling outperforms the use of AOD.

TRENDS IN PARTICULATE MATTER AND MORTALITY: AN APPROACH TO THE ASSESSMENT OF UNMEASURED CONFOUNDING

We propose a method for diagnosing confounding bias under a model which links a spatially and temporally varying exposure and health outcome. We decompose the association into orthogonal components, corresponding to distinct spatial and temporal scales of variation. If the model fully controls for confounding, the exposure effect estimates should be equal at the different temporal and spatial scales. We show that the overall exposure effect estimate is a weighted average of the scale-specific exposure effect estimates. We use this approach to estimate the association between monthly averages of fine particles (PM2.5) over the preceding 12 months and monthly mortality rates in 113 U.S. counties from 2000-2002. We decompose the association between PM2.5 and mortality into two components: 1) the association between “national trends” in PM2.5 and mortality; and 2) the association between “local trends,” defined as county-specificdeviations from national trends. This second component provides evidence as to whether counties having steeper declines in PM2.5 also have steeper declines in mortality relative to their national trends. We find that the exposure effect estimates are different at these two spatio-temporalscales, which raises concerns about confounding bias. We believe that the association between trends in PM2.5 and mortality at the national scale is more likely to be confounded than is the association between trends in PM2.5 and mortality at the local scale. If the association at the national scale is set aside, there is little evidence of an association between 12-month exposure to PM2.5 and mortality.