Factors Affecting the Forecasting Accuracy of Diffusion Models

Tutkielman tavoitteena oli tarkastella innovaatioiden leviämismallien ennustetarkkuuteen vaikuttavia tekijöitä. Tutkielmassa ennustettiin logistisella mallilla matkapuhelinliittymien leviämistä kolmessa Euroopan maassa: Suomessa, Ranskassa ja Kreikassa. Teoriaosa keskittyi innovaatioiden leviämisen ennustamiseen leviämismallien avulla. Erityisesti painotettiin mallien ennustuskykyä ja niiden käytettävyyttä eri tilanteissa. Empiirisessä osassa keskityttiin ennustamiseen logistisella leviämismallilla, joka kalibroitiin eri tavoin koostetuilla aikasarjoilla. Näin tehtyjä ennusteita tarkasteltiin tiedon kokoamistasojen vaikutusten selvittämiseksi. Tutkimusasetelma oli empiirinen, mikä sisälsi logistisen leviämismallin ennustetarkkuuden tutkimista otosdatan kokoamistasoa muunnellen. Leviämismalliin syötettävä data voidaan kerätä kuukausittain ja operaattorikohtaisesti vaikuttamatta ennustetarkkuuteen. Dataan on sisällytettävä leviämiskäyrän käännöskohta, eli pitkän aikavälin huippukysyntäpiste.

Alzheimer Disease Diagnosis based on Automatic Spontaneous Speech Analysis

Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is the most prevalent form of progressive degenerative dementia and it has a high socio-economic impact in Western countries, therefore is one of the most active research areas today. Its diagnosis is sometimes made by excluding other dementias, and definitive confirmation must be done trough a post-mortem study of the brain tissue of the patient. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to improvement of early diagnosis of AD and its degree of severity, from an automatic analysis performed by non-invasive intelligent methods. The methods selected in this case are Automatic Spontaneous Speech Analysis (ASSA) and Emotional Temperature (ET), that have the great advantage of being non invasive, low cost and without any side effects.

Improved predictive mapping of indoor radon concentrations using ensemble regression trees based on automatic clustering of geological units.

PURPOSE: According to estimations around 230 people die as a result of radon exposure in Switzerland. This public health concern makes reliable indoor radon prediction and mapping methods necessary in order to improve risk communication to the public. The aim of this study was to develop an automated method to classify lithological units according to their radon characteristics and to develop mapping and predictive tools in order to improve local radon prediction. METHOD: About 240 000 indoor radon concentration (IRC) measurements in about 150 000 buildings were available for our analysis. The automated classification of lithological units was based on k-medoids clustering via pair-wise Kolmogorov distances between IRC distributions of lithological units. For IRC mapping and prediction we used random forests and Bayesian additive regression trees (BART). RESULTS: The automated classification groups lithological units well in terms of their IRC characteristics. Especially the IRC differences in metamorphic rocks like gneiss are well revealed by this method. The maps produced by random forests soundly represent the regional difference of IRCs in Switzerland and improve the spatial detail compared to existing approaches. We could explain 33% of the variations in IRC data with random forests. Additionally, the influence of a variable evaluated by random forests shows that building characteristics are less important predictors for IRCs than spatial/geological influences. BART could explain 29% of IRC variability and produced maps that indicate the prediction uncertainty. CONCLUSION: Ensemble regression trees are a powerful tool to model and understand the multidimensional influences on IRCs. Automatic clustering of lithological units complements this method by facilitating the interpretation of radon properties of rock types. This study provides an important element for radon risk communication. Future approaches should consider taking into account further variables like soil gas radon measurements as well as more detailed geological information.

Automatic Brain Extraction in Fetal MRI using Multi-Atlas-based Segmentation

In fetal brain MRI, most of the high-resolution reconstruction algorithms rely on brain segmentation as a preprocessing step. Manual brain segmentation is however highly time-consuming and therefore not a realistic solution. In this work, we assess on a large dataset the performance of Multiple Atlas Fusion (MAF) strategies to automatically address this problem. Firstly, we show that MAF significantly increase the accuracy of brain segmentation as regards single-atlas strategy. Secondly, we show that MAF compares favorably with the most recent approach (Dice above 0.90). Finally, we show that MAF could in turn provide an enhancement in terms of reconstruction quality.

A conceptual model for grid learning services automatic composition

Peer-reviewed

Combining Advanced Forecasting Methods with System Dynamics - the Case of Finnish Seaports

Seaports play an important part in the wellbeing of a nation. Many nations are highly dependent on foreign trade and most trade is done using sea vessels. This study is part of a larger research project, where a simulation model is required in order to create further analyses on Finnish macro logistical networks. The objective of this study is to create a system dynamic simulation model, which gives an accurate forecast for the development of demand of Finnish seaports up to 2030. The emphasis on this study is to show how it is possible to create a detailed harbor demand System Dynamic model with the help of statistical methods. The used forecasting methods were ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) and regression models. The created simulation model gives a forecast with confidence intervals and allows studying different scenarios. The building process was found to be a useful one and the built model can be expanded to be more detailed. Required capacity for other parts of the Finnish logistical system could easily be included in the model.

Feature selection for automatic analysis of emotional response based on nonlinear speech modeling suitable for diagnosis of Alzheimer׳s disease

Alzheimer׳s disease (AD) is the most common type of dementia among the elderly. This work is part of a larger study that aims to identify novel technologies and biomarkers or features for the early detection of AD and its degree of severity. The diagnosis is made by analyzing several biomarkers and conducting a variety of tests (although only a post-mortem examination of the patients’ brain tissue is considered to provide definitive confirmation). Non-invasive intelligent diagnosis techniques would be a very valuable diagnostic aid. This paper concerns the Automatic Analysis of Emotional Response (AAER) in spontaneous speech based on classical and new emotional speech features: Emotional Temperature (ET) and fractal dimension (FD). This is a pre-clinical study aiming to validate tests and biomarkers for future diagnostic use. The method has the great advantage of being non-invasive, low cost, and without any side effects. The AAER shows very promising results for the definition of features useful in the early diagnosis of AD.

Framework for Traffic Pattern Identification: Required Step for Short-term Forecasting

In the world of transport management, the term ‘anticipation’ is gradually replacing ‘reaction’. Indeed, the ability to forecast traffic evolution in a network should ideally form the basis for many traffic management strategies and multiple ITS applications. Real-time prediction capabilities are therefore becoming a concrete need for the management of networks, both for urban and interurban environments, and today’s road operator has increasingly complex and exacting requirements. Recognising temporal patterns in traffic or the manner in which sequential traffic events evolve over time have been important considerations in short-term traffic forecasting. However, little work has been conducted in the area of identifying or associating traffic pattern occurrence with prevailing traffic conditions. This paper presents a framework for detection pattern identification based on finite mixture models using the EM algorithm for parameter estimation. The computation results have been conducted taking into account the traffic data available in an urban network.

Technological solution for the automatic replacement of the catalytic filaments in HWCVD

The degradation of the catalytic filaments is the main factor limiting the industrial implementation of the hot wire chemical vapor deposition (HWCVD) technique. Up to now, no solution has been found to protect the catalytic filaments used in HWCVD without compromising their catalytic activity. Probably, the definitive solution relies on the automatic replacement of the catalytic filaments. In this work, the results of the validation tests of a new apparatus for the automatic replacement of the catalytic filaments are reported. The functionalities of the different parts have been validated using a 0.2 mm diameter tungsten filament under uc-Si:H deposition conditions.

Forecasting the maximum compensation offer in the automobile BI claims negotiation process

Most motor bodily injury (BI) claims are settled by negotiation, with fewer than 5% of cases going to court. A well-defined negotiation strategy is thus very useful for insurance companies. In this paper we assume that the monetary compensation awarded in court is the upper amount to be offered by the insurer in the negotiation process. Using a real database, a log-linear model is implemented to estimate the maximal offer. Non-spherical disturbances are detected. Correlation occurs when various claims are settled in the same judicial verdict. Group wise heteroscedasticity is due to the influence of the forensic valuation on the final compensation amount. An alternative approximation based on generalized inference theory is applied to estimate confidence intervals on variance components, since classical interval estimates may be unreliable for datasets with unbalanced structures.

Automatic meter reading – benefits and applications

In liberalized electricity markets, which have taken place in many countries over the world, the electricity distribution companies operate in the competitive conditions. Therefore, accurate information about the customers’ energy consumption plays an essential role for the budget keeping of the distribution company and for correct planning and operation of the distribution network. This master’s thesis is focused on the description of the possible benefits for the electric utilities and residential customers from the automatic meter reading system usage. Major benefits of the AMR, illustrated in the thesis, are distribution network management, power quality monitoring, load modelling, and detection of the illegal usage of the electricity. By the example of the power system state estimation, it was illustrated that even the partial installation of the AMR in the customer side leads to more accurate data about the voltage and power levels in the whole network. The thesis also contains the description of the present situation of the AMR integration in Russia.

Time-series forecasting of pollutant concentration levels using particle swarm optimization and artificial neural networks

This study evaluates the application of an intelligent hybrid system for time-series forecasting of atmospheric pollutant concentration levels. The proposed method consists of an artificial neural network combined with a particle swarm optimization algorithm. The method not only searches relevant time lags for the correct characterization of the time series, but also determines the best neural network architecture. An experimental analysis is performed using four real time series and the results are shown in terms of six performance measures. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed methodology achieves a fair prediction of the presented pollutant time series by using compact networks.

Automatic evaluation and data generation for analytical chemistry instrumental analysis exercises

In general, laboratory activities are costly in terms of time, space, and money. As such, the ability to provide realistically simulated laboratory data that enables students to practice data analysis techniques as a complementary activity would be expected to reduce these costs while opening up very interesting possibilities. In the present work, a novel methodology is presented for design of analytical chemistry instrumental analysis exercises that can be automatically personalized for each student and the results evaluated immediately. The proposed system provides each student with a different set of experimental data generated randomly while satisfying a set of constraints, rather than using data obtained from actual laboratory work. This allows the instructor to provide students with a set of practical problems to complement their regular laboratory work along with the corresponding feedback provided by the system's automatic evaluation process. To this end, the Goodle Grading Management System (GMS), an innovative web-based educational tool for automating the collection and assessment of practical exercises for engineering and scientific courses, was developed. The proposed methodology takes full advantage of the Goodle GMS fusion code architecture. The design of a particular exercise is provided ad hoc by the instructor and requires basic Matlab knowledge. The system has been employed with satisfactory results in several university courses. To demonstrate the automatic evaluation process, three exercises are presented in detail. The first exercise involves a linear regression analysis of data and the calculation of the quality parameters of an instrumental analysis method. The second and third exercises address two different comparison tests, a comparison test of the mean and a t-paired test.