A micro-level simulation for the prediction of intention and behaviour

In this contribution we aim at anchoring Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) simulations in actual models of human psychology. More specifically, we apply unidirectional ABM to social psychological models using low level agents (i.e., intra-individual) to examine whether they generate better predictions, in comparison to standard statistical approaches, concerning the intentions of performing a behavior and the behavior. Moreover, this contribution tests to what extent the predictive validity of models of attitude such as the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) or Model of Goal-directed Behavior (MGB) depends on the assumption that peoples’ decisions and actions are purely rational. Simulations were therefore run by considering different deviations from rationality of the agents with a trembling hand method. Two data sets concerning respectively the consumption of soft drinks and physical activity were used. Three key findings emerged from the simulations. First, compared to standard statistical approach the agent-based simulation generally improves the prediction of behavior from intention. Second, the improvement in prediction is inversely proportional to the complexity of the underlying theoretical model. Finally, the introduction of varying degrees of deviation from rationality in agents’ behavior can lead to an improvement in the goodness of fit of the simulations. By demonstrating the potential of ABM as a complementary perspective to evaluating social psychological models, this contribution underlines the necessity of better defining agents in terms of psychological processes before examining higher levels such as the interactions between individuals.

Redes sociais e a lógica do desvio comportamental em relação às normas de trabalho

This paper aim to check a hypothesis that assumes several behaviors related to social work norm´s obeying as a phenomenon that can be explained by actor´s social network structure and the rational choice processes related to the social norm inside that network, principally the payoff´s analysis received by the closest actors, or neighbors, at a social situation. Taking the sociological paradigm of rational action theory as a basis, the focus is on a debate about the logic of social norms, from Émile Durkheim´s method to Jon Elster´s theory, but also including social network analysis´s variables according to Robert Hanneman; and also Vilfredo Pareto´s constants related to human sociability, at the aim to detect elements that can help the scholars to develop an agent based model which could explain the sociological problem of deviance by a better way than the common sense´s view about morality and ethics at a social work environment

Falhas de mercado e redes em políticas públicas: desafios e possibilidades ao Sistema Único de Saúde

Os princípios e as diretrizes do Sistema Único de Saúde (SUS) impõem uma estrutura de assistência baseada em redes de políticas públicas que, combinada ao modelo de financiamento adotado, conduz a falhas de mercado. Isso impõe barreiras à gestão do sistema público de saúde e à concretização dos objetivos do SUS. As características institucionais e a heterogeneidade dos atores, aliadas à existência de diferentes redes de atenção à saúde, geram complexidade analítica no estudo da dinâmica global da rede do SUS. Há limitações ao emprego de métodos quantitativos baseados em análise estática com dados retrospectivos do sistema público de saúde. Assim, propõe-se a abordagem do SUS como sistema complexo, a partir da utilização de metodologia quantitativa inovadora baseada em simulação computacional. O presente artigo buscou analisar desafios e potencialidades na utilização de modelagem com autômatos celulares combinada com modelagem baseada em agentes para simulação da evolução da rede de serviços do SUS. Tal abordagem deve permitir melhor compreensão da organização, heterogeneidade e dinâmica estrutural da rede de serviços do SUS e possibilitar minimização dos efeitos das falhas de mercado no sistema de saúde brasileiro.

What if criminals optimize their choice? Optimal strategies to defend public goods

We investigate optimal strategies to defend valuable goods against the attacks of a thief. Given the value of the goods and the probability of success for the thief, we look for the strategy that assures the largest benefit to each player irrespective of the strategy of his opponent. Two complementary approaches are used: agent-based modeling and game theory. It is shown that the compromise between the value of the goods and the probability of success defines the mixed Nash equilibrium of the game, that is compared with the results of the agent-based simulations and discussed in terms of the system parameters.

Desenvolvimento de um modelo baseado em agentes para investigar a conformação e evolução de padrões populacionais de atividade física no lazer em adultos

Introdução: Grande parte das ações para promover a atividade física no lazer em populações tem apresentado tamanhos de efeito pequenos ou inexistentes, ou resultados inconsistentes. Abordar o problema a partir da perspectiva sistêmica pode ser uma das formas de superar esse descompasso. Objetivo: Desenvolver um modelo baseado em agentes para investigar a conformação e evolução de padrões populacionais de atividade física no lazer em adultos a partir da interação entre atributos psicológicos dos indivíduos e atributos dos ambientes físico construído e social em que vivem. Métodos: O processo de modelagem foi composto por três etapas: elaboração de um mapa conceitual, com base em revisão da literatura e consulta com especialistas; criação e verificação do algoritmo do modelo; e parametrização e análise de consistência e sensibilidade. Os resultados da revisão da literatura foram consolidados e relatados de acordo com os domínios da busca (aspectos psicológicos, ambiente social e ambiente físico construído). Os resultados quantitativos da consulta com os especialistas foram descritos por meio de frequências e o conteúdo das respostas questões abertas foi analisado e compilado pelo autor desta tese. O algoritmo do modelo foi criado no software NetLogo, versão 5.2.1., seguindo-se um protocolo de verificação para garantir que o algoritmo fosse implementado acuradamente. Nas análises de consistência e sensibilidade, utilizaram-se o Teste A de Vargha-Delaney, coeficiente de correlação de postos parcial, boxplots e gráficos de linha e de dispersão. Resultados: Definiram-se como elementos do mapa conceitual a intenção da pessoa, o comportamento de pessoas próximas e da comunidade, e a percepção da qualidade, do acesso e das atividades disponíveis nos locais em que atividade física no lazer pode ser praticada. O modelo representa uma comunidade hipotética contendo dois tipos de agentes: pessoas e locais em que atividade física no lazer pode ser praticada. As pessoas interagem entre si e com o ambiente construído, gerando tendências temporais populacionais de prática de atividade física no lazer e de intenção. As análises de sensibilidade indicaram que as tendências temporais de atividade física no lazer e de intenção são altamente sensíveis à influência do comportamento atual da pessoa sobre a sua intenção futura, ao tamanho do raio de percepção da pessoa e à proporção de locais em que a atividade física no lazer pode ser praticada. Considerações finais: O mapa conceitual e o modelo baseado em agentes se mostraram adequados para investigar a conformação e evolução de padrões populacionais de atividade física no lazer em adultos. A influência do comportamento da pessoa sobre a sua intenção, o tamanho do raio de percepção da pessoa e a proporção de locais em que a atividade física no lazer pode ser praticada são importantes determinantes da conformação e evolução dos padrões populacionais de atividade física no lazer entre adultos no modelo.

Advances in decision support systems on the endeavour for supply chain optimality

Industry practitioners are seeking to create optimal logistics networks through more efficient decision-making leading to a shift of power from a centralized position to a more decentralized approach. This has led to researchers, exploring with vigor, the application of agent based modeling (ABM) in supply chains and more recently, its impact on decision-making. This paper investigates reasons for the shift to decentralized decision-making and the impact on supply chains. Effective decentralization of decision-making with ABM and hybrid modeling is investigated, observing the methods and potential of achieving optimality.

Investigating the Tradespace between Increased Automation and Optimal Manning on Aircraft Carrier Decks

With increasing prevalence and capabilities of autonomous systems as part of complex heterogeneous manned-unmanned environments (HMUEs), an important consideration is the impact of the introduction of automation on the optimal assignment of human personnel. The US Navy has implemented optimal staffing techniques before in the 1990's and 2000's with a "minimal staffing" approach. The results were poor, leading to the degradation of Naval preparedness. Clearly, another approach to determining optimal staffing is necessary. To this end, the goal of this research is to develop human performance models for use in determining optimal manning of HMUEs. The human performance models are developed using an agent-based simulation of the aircraft carrier flight deck, a representative safety-critical HMUE. The Personnel Multi-Agent Safety and Control Simulation (PMASCS) simulates and analyzes the effects of introducing generalized maintenance crew skill sets and accelerated failure repair times on the overall performance and safety of the carrier flight deck. A behavioral model of four operator types (ordnance officers, chocks and chains, fueling officers, plane captains, and maintenance operators) is presented here along with an aircraft failure model. The main focus of this work is on the maintenance operators and aircraft failure modeling, since they have a direct impact on total launch time, a primary metric for carrier deck performance. With PMASCS I explore the effects of two variables on total launch time of 22 aircraft: 1) skill level of maintenance operators and 2) aircraft failure repair times while on the catapult (referred to as Phase 4 repair times). It is found that neither introducing a generic skill set to maintenance crews nor introducing a technology to accelerate Phase 4 aircraft repair times improves the average total launch time of 22 aircraft. An optimal manning level of 3 maintenance crews is found under all conditions, the point at which any additional maintenance crews does not reduce the total launch time. An additional discussion is included about how these results change if the operations are relieved of the bottleneck of installing the holdback bar at launch time.

Mechanizmy wybiórczości środowiskowej u świstunki leśnej Phylloscopus sibilatrix

Wydział Biologii

Using Intelligent Agents to Understand Management Practices and Retail Productivity

Intelligent agents offer a new and exciting way of understanding the world of work. In this paper we apply agent-based modeling and simulation to investigate a set of problems in a retail context. Specifically, we are working to understand the relationship between human resource management practices and retail productivity. Despite the fact we are working within a relatively novel and complex domain, it is clear that intelligent agents could offer potential for fostering sustainable organizational capabilities in the future. The project is still at an early stage. So far we have conducted a case study in a UK department store to collect data and capture impressions about operations and actors within departments. Furthermore, based on our case study we have built and tested our first version of a retail branch simulator which we will present in this paper.

Understanding Retail Productivity by Simulating Management Practices

Intelligent agents offer a new and exciting way of understanding the world of work. In this paper we apply agent-based modeling and simulation to investigate a set of problems in a retail context. Specifically, we are working to understand the relationship between human resource management practices and retail productivity. Despite the fact we are working within a relatively novel and complex domain, it is clear that intelligent agents could offer potential for fostering sustainable organizational capabilities in the future. Our research so far has led us to conduct case study work with a top ten UK retailer, collecting data in four departments in two stores. Based on our case study data we have built and tested a first version of a department store simulator. In this paper we will report on the current development of our simulator which includes new features concerning more realistic data on the pattern of footfall during the day and the week, a more differentiated view of customers, and the evolution of customers over time. This allows us to investigate more complex scenarios and to analyze the impact of various management practices.

Modelling and simulating retail management practices: a first approach

Multi-agent systems offer a new and exciting way of understanding the world of work. We apply agent-based modeling and simulation to investigate a set of problems in a retail context. Specifically, we are working to understand the relationship between people management practices on the shop-floor and retail performance. Despite the fact we are working within a relatively novel and complex domain, it is clear that using an agent-based approach offers great potential for improving organizational capabilities in the future. Our multi-disciplinary research team has worked closely with one of the UK’s top ten retailers to collect data and build an understanding of shop-floor operations and the key actors in a department (customers, staff, and managers). Based on this case study we have built and tested our first version of a retail branch agent-based simulation model where we have focused on how we can simulate the effects of people management practices on customer satisfaction and sales. In our experiments we have looked at employee development and cashier empowerment as two examples of shop floor management practices. In this paper we describe the underlying conceptual ideas and the features of our simulation model. We present a selection of experiments we have conducted in order to validate our simulation model and to show its potential for answering “what-if” questions in a retail context. We also introduce a novel performance measure which we have created to quantify customers’ satisfaction with service, based on their individual shopping experiences.

A nested Petri net framework for modeling and analyzing multi-agent systems

In the past two decades, multi-agent systems (MAS) have emerged as a new paradigm for conceptualizing large and complex distributed software systems. A multi-agent system view provides a natural abstraction for both the structure and the behavior of modern-day software systems. Although there were many conceptual frameworks for using multi-agent systems, there was no well established and widely accepted method for modeling multi-agent systems. This dissertation research addressed the representation and analysis of multi-agent systems based on model-oriented formal methods. The objective was to provide a systematic approach for studying MAS at an early stage of system development to ensure the quality of design. ^ Given that there was no well-defined formal model directly supporting agent-oriented modeling, this study was centered on three main topics: (1) adapting a well-known formal model, predicate transition nets (PrT nets), to support MAS modeling; (2) formulating a modeling methodology to ease the construction of formal MAS models; and (3) developing a technique to support machine analysis of formal MAS models using model checking technology. PrT nets were extended to include the notions of dynamic structure, agent communication and coordination to support agent-oriented modeling. An aspect-oriented technique was developed to address the modularity of agent models and compositionality of incremental analysis. A set of translation rules were defined to systematically translate formal MAS models to concrete models that can be verified through the model checker SPIN (Simple Promela Interpreter). ^ This dissertation presents the framework developed for modeling and analyzing MAS, including a well-defined process model based on nested PrT nets, and a comprehensive methodology to guide the construction and analysis of formal MAS models.^

Maintenance chain integration using Petri-net enabled multiagent system modeling and implementation approach

Engineering asset management (EAM) is a broad discipline and the EAM functions and processes are characterized by its distributed nature. However, engineering asset nowadays mostly relies on self-maintained experiential rule bases and periodic maintenance, which is lacking a collaborative engineering approach. This research proposes a collaborative environment integrated by a service center with domain expertise such as diagnosis, prognosis, and asset operations. The collaborative maintenance chain combines asset operation sites, service center (i.e., maintenance operation coordinator), system provider, first tier collaborators, and maintenance part suppliers. Meanwhile, to realize the automation of communication and negotiation among organizations, multiagent system (MAS) technique is applied to enhance the entire service level. During the MAS design processes, this research combines Prometheus MAS modeling approach with Petri-net modeling methodology and unified modeling language to visualize and rationalize the design processes of MAS. The major contributions of this research include developing a Petri-net enabled Prometheus MAS modeling methodology and constructing a collaborative agent-based maintenance chain framework for integrated EAM.

Modelling passenger flow at airport terminals : individual agent decision model for stochastic passenger behaviour

Airport system is complex. Passenger dynamics within it appear to be complicate as well. Passenger behaviours outside standard processes are regarded more significant in terms of public hazard and service rate issues. In this paper, we devised an individual agent decision model to simulate stochastic passenger behaviour in airport departure terminal. Bayesian networks are implemented into the decision making model to infer the probabilities that passengers choose to use any in-airport facilities. We aim to understand dynamics of the discretionary activities of passengers.

Modeling smart grids as complex systems through the implementation of intelligent hubs

ICINCO 2010