Governed by the cycle : direct and inverted interest-rate sensitivity of emerging market corporate debt

An innovative approach to quantify interest rate sensitivities of emerging market corporates is proposed. Our focus is centered at price sensitivity of modeled investment grade and high yield portfolios to changes in the present value of modeled portfolios composed of safe-haven assets, which define risk-free interest rates. Our methodology is based on blended yield indexes. Modeled investment horizons are always kept above one year thus allowing to derive empirical implications for practical strategies of interest rate risk management in the banking book. As our study spans over the period 2002 – 2015, it covers interest rate sensitivity of assets under the pre-crisis, crisis, and post-crisis phases of the economic cycles. We demonstrate that the emerging market corporate bonds both, investment grade and high yield types, depending on the phase of a business cycle exhibit diverse regimes of sensitivity to interest rate changes. We observe switching from a direct positive sensitivity under the normal pre-crisis market conditions to an inverted negative sensitivity during distressed turmoil of the recent financial crisis, and than back to direct positive but weaker sensitivity under new normal post-crisis conjuncture. Our unusual blended yield-based approach allows us to present theoretical explanations of such phenomena from economics point of view and helps us to solve an old controversy regarding positive or negative responses of credit spreads to interest rates. We present numerical quantification of sensitivities, which corroborate with our conclusion that hedging of interest rate risk ought to be a dynamic process linked to the phases of business cycles as we evidence a binary-like behavior of interest rate sensitivities along the economic time. Our findings allow banks and financial institutions for approaching downside risk management and optimizing economic capital under Basel III regulatory capital rules.

Influência das tensões tectônicas na permeabilidade da formação Açu - Bacia Potiguar

The behavior of the fluid flux in oil fields is influenced by different factors and it has a big impact on the recovery of hydrocarbons. There is a need of evaluating and adapting the actual technology to the worldwide reservoirs reality, not only on the exploration (reservoir discovers) but also on the development of those that were already discovered, however not yet produced. The in situ combustion (ISC) is a suitable technique for these recovery of hydrocarbons, although it remains complex to be implemented. The main objective of this research was to study the application of the ISC as an advanced oil recovery technique through a parametric analysis of the process using vertical wells within a semi synthetic reservoir that had the characteristics from the brazilian northwest, in order to determine which of those parameters could influence the process, verifying the technical and economical viability of the method on the oil industry. For that analysis, a commercial reservoir simulation program for thermal processes was used, called steam thermal and advanced processes reservoir simulator (STARS) from the computer modeling group (CMG). This study aims, through the numerical analysis, find results that help improve mainly the interpretation and comprehension of the main problems related to the ISC method, which are not yet dominated. From the results obtained, it was proved that the mediation promoted by the thermal process ISC over the oil recovery is very important, with rates and cumulated production positively influenced by the method application. It was seen that the application of the method improves the oil mobility as a function of the heating when the combustion front forms inside the reservoir. Among all the analyzed parameters, the activation energy presented the bigger influence, it means, the lower the activation energy the bigger the fraction of recovered oil, as a function of the chemical reactions speed rise. It was also verified that the higher the enthalpy of the reaction, the bigger the fraction of recovered oil, due to a bigger amount of released energy inside the system, helping the ISC. The reservoir parameters: porosity and permeability showed to have lower influence on the ISC. Among the operational parameters that were analyzed, the injection rate was the one that showed a stronger influence on the ISC method, because, the higher the value of the injection rate, the higher was the result obtained, mainly due to maintaining the combustion front. In connection with the oxygen concentration, an increase of the percentage of this parameter translates into a higher fraction of recovered oil, because the quantity of fuel, helping the advance and the maintenance of the combustion front for a longer period of time. About the economic analysis, the ISC method showed to be economically feasible when evaluated through the net present value (NPV), considering the injection rates: the higher the injection rate, the higher the financial incomes of the final project

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS of AMAZON RIVER PRAWN FARMING TO THE MARKETS FOR LIVE BAIT and JUVENILES IN PANTANAL, BRAZIL

The implementation of a hypothetical aquaculture facility with hatchery, nursery and grow-out earthen ponds for raising the Amazon River Prawn Macrobrachium amazonicum in the Pantanal was considered. Eight larviculture cycles per year were projected: four to produce post-larvae for stocking in grow-out bait ponds, and four to stock nursery tanks to sell juveniles as seed to grow-out farms, which produce prawns for human consumption. Annual production would be 146,880 dozen bait prawns and 2,938 thousand juveniles. The assumed sale prices were US$ 1.38 per dozen baits and US$ 15.39 per thousand juveniles. The net present value was US$ 555,890.79, internal rate of return was 48% per year, payback period was 2.4 years and benefit-cost ratio was 3.90. The breakeven price to cover total costs per dozen baits was US$ 0.70 and per thousand juveniles was US$ 17.00, indicating that the selling price assumed for juveniles in base scenario is not realistic. Net return was US$ 84,773.80. The results indicate that this activity would be a lucrative and attractive investment in the Pantanal.

Estudo do processo de combustão in-situ em reservatórios maduros de óleos médios e leves (high pressure air injection)

Nearly 3 x 1011 m3 of medium and light oils will remain in reservoirs worldwide after conventional recovery methods have been exhausted and much of this volume would be recovered by Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) methods. The in-situ combustion (ISC) is an EOR method in which an oxygen-containing gas is injected into a reservoir where it reacts with the crude oil to create a high-temperature combustion front that is propagated through the reservoir. The High Pressure Air Injection (HPAI) method is a particular denomination of the air injection process applied in light oil reservoirs, for which the combustion reactions are dominant between 150 and 300°C and the generation of flue gas is the main factor to the oil displacement. A simulation model of a homogeneous reservoir was built to study, which was initially undergone to primary production, for 3 years, next by a waterflooding process for 21 more years. At this point, with the mature condition established into the reservoir, three variations of this model were selected, according to the recovery factors (RF) reached, for study the in-situ combustion (HPAI) technique. Next to this, a sensitivity analysis on the RF of characteristic operational parameters of the method was carried out: air injection rate per well, oxygen concentration into the injected gas, patterns of air injection and wells perforations configuration. This analysis, for 10 more years of production time, was performed with assistance of the central composite design. The reservoir behavior and the impacts of chemical reactions parameters and of reservoir particularities on the RF were also evaluated. An economic analysis and a study to maximize the RF of the process were also carried out. The simulation runs were performed in the simulator of thermal processes in reservoirs STARS (Steam, Thermal, and Advanced Processes Reservoir Simulator) from CMG (Computer Modelling Group). The results showed the incremental RF were small and the net present value (NPV) is affected by high initial investments to compress the air. It was noticed that the adoption of high oxygen concentration into the injected gas and of the five spot pattern tends to improve the RF, and the wells perforations configuration has more influence with the increase of the oil thickness. Simulated cases relating to the reservoir particularities showed that smaller residual oil saturations to gas lead to greater RF and the presence of heterogeneities results in important variations on the RF and on the production curves

Nova técnica para obtenção de fraturas com altíssima condutividade em poços de petróleo

Increase hydrocarbons production is the main goal of the oilwell industry worldwide. Hydraulic fracturing is often applied to achieve this goal due to a combination of attractive aspects including easiness and low operational costs associated with fast and highly economical response. Conventional fracturing usually involves high-flowing high-pressure pumping of a viscous fluid responsible for opening the fracture in the hydrocarbon producing rock. The thickness of the fracture should be enough to assure the penetration of the particles of a solid proppant into the rock. The proppant is driven into the target formation by a carrier fluid. After pumping, all fluids are filtered through the faces of the fracture and penetrate the rock. The proppant remains in the fracture holding it open and assuring high hydraulic conductivity. The present study proposes a different approach for hydraulic fracturing. Fractures with infinity conductivity are formed and used to further improve the production of highly permeable formations as well as to produce long fractures in naturally fractured formations. Naturally open fractures with infinite conductivity are usually encountered. They can be observed in rock outcrops and core plugs, or noticed by the total loss of circulation during drilling (even with low density fluids), image profiles, pumping tests (Mini-Frac and Mini Fall Off), and injection tests below fracturing pressure, whose flow is higher than expected for radial Darcian ones. Naturally occurring fractures are kept open by randomly shaped and placed supporting points, able to hold the faces of the fracture separate even under typical closing pressures. The approach presented herein generates infinite conductivity canal held open by artificially created parallel supporting areas positioned both horizontally and vertically. The size of these areas is designed to hold the permeable zones open supported by the impermeable areas. The England & Green equation was used to theoretically prove that the fracture can be held open by such artificially created set of horizontal parallel supporting areas. To assess the benefits of fractures characterized by infinite conductivity, an overall comparison with finite conductivity fractures was carried out using a series of parameters including fracture pressure loss and dimensionless conductivity as a function of flow production, FOI folds of increase, flow production and cumulative production as a function of time, and finally plots of net present value and productivity index

A COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS OF A 25% RPS IN MICHIGAN

Michigan depends heavily on fossil fuels to generate electricity. Compared with fossil fuels, electricity generation from renewable energy produces less pollutants emissions. A Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) is a mandate that requires electric utilities to generate a certain amount of electricity from renewable energy sources. This thesis applies the Cost-Benefits Analysis (CBA) method to investigate the impacts of implementing a 25% in Michigan by 2025. It is found that a 25% RPS will create about $20.12 billion in net benefits to the State. Moreover, if current tax credit policies will not change until 2025, its net present value will increase to about $26.59 billion. Based on the results of this CBA, a 25% RPS should be approved. The result of future studies on the same issue can be improved if more state specific data become available.

ECONOMIC PROFITABILITY OF THE BAKKEN, NORTH DAKOTA UNCONVENTIONAL OIL PLAYS BASED ON A TYPICAL WELL PERFORMANCE WITH CURRENT MARKET CONDITIONS

Increases in oil prices after the economic recession have been surprising for domestic oil production in the United States since the beginning of 2009. Not only did the conventional oil extraction increase, but unconventional oil production and exploration also improved greatly with the favorable economic conditions. This favorable economy encourages companies to invest in new reservoirs and technological developments. Recently, enhanced drilling techniques including hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling have been supporting the domestic economy by way of unconventional shale and tight oil from various U.S. locations. One of the main contributors to this oil boom is the unconventional oil production from the North Dakota Bakken field. Horizontal drilling has increased oil production in the Bakken field, but the economic issues of unconventional oil extraction are still debatable due to volatile oil prices, high decline rates of production, a limited production period, high production costs, and lack of transportation. The economic profitability and viability of the unconventional oil play in the North Dakota Bakken was tested with an economic analysis of average Bakken unconventional well features. Scenario analysis demonstrated that a typical North Dakota Bakken unconventional oil well is profitable and viable as shown by three financial metrics; net present value, internal rate of return, and break-even prices.

Plan de negocio Aprisco JAM

El Aprisco JAM busca entrar en el mercado de lácteos y derivados con un producto que posee atributos nutricionales importantes al igual que provee la facilidad de ser consumido por cualquier persona, principalmente aquellas que no toleran la leche vacuna encontrando en nuestros productos una alternativa para el disfrute de estos sin comprometer su salud y bienestar. Encontramos así pues una demanda existente en donde ofrecemos como solución a las necesidades un producto nutritivamente saludable siendo recordados y diferenciados por este aspecto. Todo ello en base a una producción limpia y sostenible que permita un aprovechamiento y uso eficiente de los recursos naturales. Para lograr dicho objetivo es necesario una inversión inicial de $24.742.036 COP, proyectado a 3 años dicha inversión se recuperará a partir del 5 mes con un interés esperado de 35,6% EA que representa beneficios en valor actual de $90´628.858. Por otro lado genera una relación beneficio-costo de 4,66, esto quiere decir que por cada peso invertido se generan beneficios de 3,66 pesos.

Remarks on the present high price of grain, and on the expediency of farther legislative restrictions in order to effect its reduction.

Mode of access: Internet.

State of labor in Europe: 1878. Reports from the United States consuls in the several countries of Europe, on the rates of wages; cost of living to the laborers; past and present rates; present condition of trade; business habits, and systems; amount of paper money in circulation, and its relative value to gold and silver; for the several consular districts, in response to a circular from the Department of state requesting information upon these subjects;

Mode of access: Internet.

A practical treatise on rail-roads : and interior communication in general ... with tables of the comparative value of canals and rail-roads, and the power of the present locomotive engines /

Mode of access: Internet.

Plain arguments advanced to convince the nation of the impropriety of the restrictions at present imposed on the Royal family in order to prevent their intermarrying with the inhabitants of these kingdoms, in a letter addressed to the Lords spiritual and temporal, and also to the Honourable the members of the House of commons of the United kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland.

Signed at end: Theourgos.

‘New’ migrant identities: unravelling opportunities and restrictions

Labour and capital mobility from globalisation has given rise to significant increases in the reliance of migrant labour in established gateways, but also in new migration destinations. Many aspects of migrant incorporation in new migration destinations have received some attention, not least regarding employer and employee relations. Less attention has been focused on the construction of migrant as a marker of identification, although identities, particularly regarding gender and ethnicity, in the workplace have received considerable attention. This article aims to illuminate knowledge on how migration produces social change thereby responding to a call from Batnitzky et al. (2009, p. 1290) for additional attention on what ‘the practical and symbolic effects of migration are as people move across different structures and institutions of social control….’ Mindful of Goffman’s (1969, 1983) emphasis on individual interactions and experiences, it examines what it means to be a migrant in terms of everyday encounters and experiences. It investigates the array and interplay of internal and external processes that create migrant identities and the implications of this for social integration.

The paper argues that one of the paradoxes of globalisation, and of the associated increased levels of migrant labour, is the construction of the migrant identity that ultimately impedes social integration. It shows how the application of migrant identity (internally and externally) bestows a particular status that affects (options for) individual behaviour and subsequent actions and outcomes. The paper argues that while migrants value the migrant identity status because of the benefits that it brings, this status can also cause high levels of dissatisfaction among migrants and it can exclude migrants from wider benefits of full citizenship. Migrants have individual identification processes, but external forces, including social structures and institutions, also affect migrant identity. These forces help to shape individual expectations and standards, contributing to identity interruption and dissonance.

The paper is structured as follows: it uses social identity theory as a means of understanding what it is to be a ‘migrant’ in a new destination, while simultaneously recognising the inevitability of this generic label - migrants are an extremely heterogeneous group, made up of individuals with different experiences, values and so forth. The analysis considers the significance of context and of social interactions, thus paying attention to how identity is constructed and performed by the individual and also assigned by others. Empirical evidence is used to examine how having a migrant status affects individual prospects. The paper evaluates the extent to which patterns and processes of migration present an opportunity for social change, positive or negative.

The symbolic, socio-economic and exchange value of Imperial German and National Socialist medals and badges, 1701 to the present

This thesis examines the manufacture, use, exchange (including gift exchange), collecting and commodification of German medals and badges from the early 18th century until the present-day, with particular attention being given to the symbols that were deployed by the National Socialist German Workers’ Party (NSDAP) between 1919 and 1945. It does so by focusing in particular on the construction of value through insignia, and how such badges and their symbolic and monetary value changed over time. In order to achieve this, the thesis adopts a chronological structure, which encompasses the creation of Prussia in 1701, the Napoleonic wars and the increased democratisation of military awards such as the Iron Cross during the Great War. The collapse of the Kaiserreich in 1918 was the major factor that led to the creation of the NSDAP under the eventual strangle-hold of Hitler, a fundamentally racist and anti-Semitic movement that continued the German tradition of awarding and wearing badges. The traditional symbols of Imperial Germany, such as the eagle, were then infused with the swastika, an emblem that was meant to signify anti-Semitism, thus creating a hybrid identity. This combination was then replicated en-masse, and eventually eclipsed all the symbols that had possessed symbolic significance in Germany’s past. After Hitler was appointed Chancellor in 1933, millions of medals and badges were produced in an effort to create a racially based “People’s Community”, but the steel and iron that were required for munitions eventually led to substitute materials being utilised and developed in order to manufacture millions of politically oriented badges. The Second World War unleashed Nazi terror across Europe, and the conscripts and volunteers who took part in this fight for living-space were rewarded with medals that were modelled on those that had been instituted during Imperial times. The colonial conquest and occupation of the East by the Wehrmacht, the Order Police and the Waffen-SS surpassed the brutality of former wars that finally culminated in the Holocaust, and some of these horrific crimes and the perpetrators of them were perversely rewarded with medals and badges. Despite Nazism being thoroughly discredited, many of the Allied soldiers who occupied Germany took part in the age-old practice of obtaining trophies of war, which reconfigured the meaning of Nazi badges as souvenirs, and began the process of their increased commodification on an emerging secondary collectors’ market. In order to analyse the dynamics of this market, a “basket” of badges is examined that enables a discussion of the role that aesthetics, scarcity and authenticity have in determining the price of the artefacts. In summary, this thesis demonstrates how the symbolic, socio-economic and exchange value of German military and political medals and badges has changed substantially over time, provides a stimulus for scholars to conduct research in this under-developed area, and encourages collectors to investigate the artefacts that they collect in a more historically contextualised manner.

Value-oriented process modeling : integrating financial perspectives into business process re-design

Purpose – Financial information about costs and return on investments are of key importance to strategic decision-making but also in the context of process improvement or business engineering. In this paper we propose a value-oriented approach to business process modeling based on key concepts and metrics from operations and financial management, to aid decision making in process re-design projects on the basis of process models. Design/methodology/approach – We suggest a theoretically founded extension to current process modeling approaches, and delineate a framework as well as methodical support to incorporate financial information into process re-design. We use two case studies to evaluate the suggested approach. Findings – Based on two case studies, we show that the value-oriented process modeling approach facilitates and improves managerial decision-making in the context of process re-design. Research limitations / implications – We present design work and two case studies. More research is needed to more thoroughly evaluate the presented approach in a variety of real-life process modeling settings. Practical implications – We show how our approach enables decision makers to make investment decisions in process re-design projects, and also how other decisions, for instance in the context of enterprise architecture design, can be facilitated. Originality/value – This study reports on an attempt to integrate financial considerations into the act of process modeling, in order to provide more comprehensive decision making support in process re-design projects.