Estudo de simulação de reservatórios para o desenvolvimento de um campo do nordeste brasileiro

In the last 16 years emerged in Brazil a segment of independent producers with focus on onshore basins and shallow waters. Among the challenges of these companies is the development of fields with projects with a low net present value (NPV). The objective of this work was to study the technical-economical best option to develop an oil field in the Brazilian Northeast using reservoir simulation. Real geology, reservoir and production data was used to build the geological and simulation model. Due to not having PVT analysis, distillation method test data known as the true boiling points (TBP) were used to create a fluids model generating the PVT data. After execution of the history match, four development scenarios were simulated: the extrapolation of production without new investments, the conversion of a producing well for immiscible gas injection, the drilling of a vertical well and the drilling of a horizontal well. As a result, from the financial point of view, the gas injection is the alternative with lower added value, but it may be viable if there are environmental or regulatory restrictions to flaring or venting the produced gas into the atmosphere from this field or neighboring accumulations. The recovery factor achieved with the drilling of vertical and horizontal wells is similar, but the horizontal well is a project of production acceleration; therefore, the present incremental cumulative production with a minimum rate of company's attractiveness is higher. Depending on the crude oil Brent price and the drilling cost, this option can be technically and financially viable.

An application of evolutionary algorithms for WAG optimisation in the Norne Field

Water-alternating-gas (WAG) is an enhanced oil recovery method combining the improved macroscopic sweep of water flooding with the improved microscopic displacement of gas injection. The optimal design of the WAG parameters is usually based on numerical reservoir simulation via trial and error, limited by the reservoir engineer’s availability. Employing optimisation techniques can guide the simulation runs and reduce the number of function evaluations. In this study, robust evolutionary algorithms are utilized to optimise hydrocarbon WAG performance in the E-segment of the Norne field. The first objective function is selected to be the net present value (NPV) and two global semi-random search strategies, a genetic algorithm (GA) and particle swarm optimisation (PSO) are tested on different case studies with different numbers of controlling variables which are sampled from the set of water and gas injection rates, bottom-hole pressures of the oil production wells, cycle ratio, cycle time, the composition of the injected hydrocarbon gas (miscible/immiscible WAG) and the total WAG period. In progressive experiments, the number of decision-making variables is increased, increasing the problem complexity while potentially improving the efficacy of the WAG process. The second objective function is selected to be the incremental recovery factor (IRF) within a fixed total WAG simulation time and it is optimised using the same optimisation algorithms. The results from the two optimisation techniques are analyzed and their performance, convergence speed and the quality of the optimal solutions found by the algorithms in multiple trials are compared for each experiment. The distinctions between the optimal WAG parameters resulting from NPV and oil recovery optimisation are also examined. This is the first known work optimising over this complete set of WAG variables. The first use of PSO to optimise a WAG project at the field scale is also illustrated. Compared to the reference cases, the best overall values of the objective functions found by GA and PSO were 13.8% and 14.2% higher, respectively, if NPV is optimised over all the above variables, and 14.2% and 16.2% higher, respectively, if IRF is optimised.

(Table 2) Abundance of Radiolaria species in sediment samples from Core AMK4-340

Over the past 13 kyr the most significant natural changes in the Reykjanes ridge region took place within 13-7.8 kyr B.P. They resulted from alternating intensifications of the influence of the Labrador (LWM) and Norwegian-Greenland (NGWM) water masses. During 13-11.7 kyr B.P. natural conditions were governed by influence of LWM with sea surface temperature (SST) 3-5°C lower present one. During 11.7-10.3 kyr B.P. NGWM with SST 6-7°C lower present one predominated. During 10.3-9.5 kyr B.P. oceanographic conditions were rapidly transforming and approaching present ones controlled by interaction between LWM and North Atlantic water masses; SST abruptly increased almost to the present value. During 9.5-8.3 kyr B.P. intensification of NGWM led to small decrease of SST (1.5-2.5°C below present value; between 8.3 and 7.8 kyr B.P. natural conditions had approximated present ones and later on remained relatively stable; SST fluctuated with an amplitude of about 1.5°C.

Operational expenditure costs for wave energy projects and impacts on financial returns

This paper examines 'availability' and the input metrics of operational expenditure (OPEX) for wave energy projects and reports on a case study which assesses the impact of these inputs on project profit returns. Case study simulations modelled a 75 MW wave energy project at two locations; the west coast of Ireland and the north coast of Portugal. Access and availability with respect to weather windows at both locations are discussed and their impact on energy output and wave farm operations is quantified. The input metrics used to calculate OPEX of wave energy projects are defined as well as the impact of OPEX on project net present value (NPV) and internal rate of return (IRR). Results indicate that access and resultant availability factors have a significant impact on case study results by reducing energy output and correspondingly financial returns. Furthermore, the technology maturity level designated for a project also impacts on availability factors and consequently energy output and NPV. Case study profits proved to be very sensitive to annual OPEX, especially if overhaul and replacement costs were accounted for. As a result of the impact of 'availability' on project profit returns. Feed-in tariffs will need to be tailored to the location in question as well as the device technology maturity level, with case study simulations indicating that high FIT will be required to support early stage WEC projects. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Valuation Analysis of the Physical Oceanographic Real Time System (PORTS)

This analysis estimates several economic benefits derived from national implementation of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Physical Oceanographic Real-Time System (PORTS®) at the 175 largest ports in the United States. Significant benefits were observed owing to: (1) lower commercial marine accident rates and resultant reductions in morbidity, mortality and property damage; (2) reduced pollution remediation costs; and, (3) increased productivity associated with operation of more fully loaded commercial vessels. Evidence also suggested additional benefits from heightened commercial and recreational fish catch and diminished recreational boating accidents. Annual gross benefits from 58 current PORTS® locations exceeded $217 million with an addition $83 million possible if installed at the largest remaining 117 ports in the United States. Over the ten-year economic life of PORTS® instruments, the present value for installation at all 175 ports could approach $2.5 billion.

The Cost of Co-viability in the Australian Northern Prawn Fishery

Fisheries management must address multiple, often conflicting objectives in a highly uncertain context. In particular, while the bio-economic performance of trawl fisheries is subject to high levels of biological and economic uncertainty, the impact of trawling on broader biodiversity is also a major concern for their management. The purpose of this study is to propose an analytical framework to formally assess the trade-offs associated with balancing biological, economic and non-target species conservation objectives. We use the Australian Northern Prawn Fishery (NPF), which is one of the most valuable federally managed commercial fisheries in Australia, as a case study. We develop a stochastic co-viability assessment of the fishery under multiple management objectives. Results show that, due to the variability in the interactions between the fishery and the ecosystem, current management strategies are characterized by biological and economic risks. Results highlight the trade-offs between respecting biological, economic and non-target species conservation constraints at each point in time with a high probability and maximizing the net present value of the fishery.

Bioeconomic modelling of woody regrowth carbon offset options in productive grazing systems

Agricultural land has been identified as a potential source of greenhouse gas emissions offsets through biosequestration in vegetation and soil. In the extensive grazing land of Australia, landholders may participate in the Australian Government’s Emissions Reduction Fund and create offsets by reducing woody vegetation clearing and allowing native woody plant regrowth to grow. This study used bioeconomic modelling to evaluate the trade-offs between an existing central Queensland grazing operation, which has been using repeated tree clearing to maintain pasture growth, and an alternative carbon and grazing enterprise in which tree clearing is reduced and the additional carbon sequestered in trees is sold. The results showed that ceasing clearing in favour of producing offsets produces a higher net present value over 20 years than the existing cattle enterprise at carbon prices, which are close to current (2015) market levels (~$13 t–1 CO2-e). However, by modifying key variables, relative profitability did change. Sensitivity analysis evaluated key variables, which determine the relative profitability of carbon and cattle. In order of importance these were: the carbon price, the gross margin of cattle production, the severity of the tree–grass relationship, the area of regrowth retained, the age of regrowth at the start of the project, and to a lesser extent the cost of carbon project administration, compliance and monitoring. Based on the analysis, retaining regrowth to generate carbon income may be worthwhile for cattle producers in Australia, but careful consideration needs to be given to the opportunity cost of reduced cattle income.

Aplicação da teoria das opções reais na análise de investimentos em concessão florestal

Dissertação (mestrado)—Universidade de Brasília, Faculdade de Tecnologia, Departamento de Engenharia Florestal, 2016.

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Um dos grandes desafios para a valorização de Portugal como destino cultural, assenta na agregação de toda a oferta que o nosso país apresenta. A música, por tudo aquilo que representa para o nosso país, apresenta as características certas para se tornar num elo de ligação entre a cultura e as pessoas. Nos últimos anos assistimos a uma alteração do consumo de música através de aplicações que emergiram e que alcançaram o seu espaço na sociedade moderna. Paralelamente, temos presenciado no nosso país a um aumento de concertos e espetáculos ao vivo, número de espectadores e de receitas de bilheteira, gerando receitas em torno dos 70 000 000 de euros. Beneficiando da experiência e conhecimento na área musical, este projeto visa desenvolver uma aplicação mobile que funcione como agregador de toda a informação relativa a espetáculos musicais ao vivo na área de Lisboa. Na base da construção do Plano de Negócios foi utilizado o programa FINICIA do Instituto de Apoio às Pequenas e Médias Empresas e à Inovação (IAPMEI) que revelou todas as conjeturas necessárias à sua realização e implementação. Os indicadores de validade do projeto, recolhidos através do questionário online com base no método Delphi, comprovaram a relevância da criação de uma aplicação mobile focada na área da música em Lisboa. De acordo com os indicadores de viabilidade utilizados neste projeto, nomeadamente a Taxa Interna de Rendibilidade (TIR), o Valor Atual Líquido (VAL) e o Período de Payback, foi possível determinar que o mesmo é economicamente viável.

Gestão Técnica Centralizada em Edifícios da Força Aérea

A investigação centra-se na aplicação da Gestão Técnica Centralizada como instrumento para a melhoria da eficiência energética dos edifícios e infraestruturas da Força Aérea Portuguesa e diminuição de pessoal afeto à sua manutenção, tendo por base, dois casos de estudo, o edifício QC12 do Centro de Formação Militar e Técnica da Força Aérea e o ECOTERMOLAB, pertencente ao Instituto de Soldadura e Qualidade. Da análise desenvolvida conclui-se que o funcionamento dos edifícios ECOTERMOLAB e QC12, com controlo por GTC, representam anualmente uma diminuição de consumo energético em 30% e 44% respetivamente e, uma redução de 50% nos recursos humanos afetos à instalação do QC12. Da viabilidade económica obtiveram-se as métricas de Valor Atual Líquido e a Taxa Interna de Rentabilidade positivos e um Período de Recuperação do Investimento, de 11,5 anos para ECOTERMOLAB e 10,7 anos para QC12. Por fim, teceram-se algumas recomendações, dirigidas à Força Aérea Portuguesa, com o intento de melhorar a eficiência energética elétrica e a redução de recursos humanos afetos. Abstract: The research is focused in the application of the Centered Technique Management as an instrument to improve the Portuguese Air Force buildings and infrastructures’ energetic efficiency and to reduce the staff in charge of its maintenance, based on two study cases, QC 12 building in The Air Force Military and Technique Training Center and ECOTERMOLAB, which belongs to Instituto de Soldadura e Qualidade (Quality and Welding Institute). From the analysis, one can conclude that the functioning of the ECOTERMOLAB and QC12 buildings, with GTC control, represents an annual consumption of less 30% and 44% respectively and a 50% reduction in the human resources of the QC 12. From the economical viability, it was possible to get the figures of the Net Present Value and the Internal Rate of Return and a Period of Return on Investment of 11,5 years for ECOTERMOLAB and 10,7 years for QC 12. Finally, some recommendations to the Portuguese Air Force were made, aiming the improvement of the electrical energetic efficiency and a reduction in human resources.

Network Development with Bicycle Lanes

Bicycling as an active mode of transport can offer great individual and societal benefits. Allocating space for bicycle facilities is the key to promoting cycling as bicyclists perceive better safety and convenience in separate bikeways. In this thesis, a method is proposed for optimizing the selection and scheduling of capacity enhancements in road networks while also optimizing the allocation of road space to bicycle lanes. The goal is to determine what fraction of the available space should be allocated to bicycles, as the network evolves, in order to minimize the present value of the total cost of the system cost. The allocation method is combined with a genetic algorithm to select and schedule road expansion projects under certain budget constraints.

Equity research - Brisa

Mestrado em Finanças

Equity Research - Luz Saúde

Mestrado em Finanças

Governed by the cycle : direct and inverted interest-rate sensitivity of emerging market corporate debt

An innovative approach to quantify interest rate sensitivities of emerging market corporates is proposed. Our focus is centered at price sensitivity of modeled investment grade and high yield portfolios to changes in the present value of modeled portfolios composed of safe-haven assets, which define risk-free interest rates. Our methodology is based on blended yield indexes. Modeled investment horizons are always kept above one year thus allowing to derive empirical implications for practical strategies of interest rate risk management in the banking book. As our study spans over the period 2002 – 2015, it covers interest rate sensitivity of assets under the pre-crisis, crisis, and post-crisis phases of the economic cycles. We demonstrate that the emerging market corporate bonds both, investment grade and high yield types, depending on the phase of a business cycle exhibit diverse regimes of sensitivity to interest rate changes. We observe switching from a direct positive sensitivity under the normal pre-crisis market conditions to an inverted negative sensitivity during distressed turmoil of the recent financial crisis, and than back to direct positive but weaker sensitivity under new normal post-crisis conjuncture. Our unusual blended yield-based approach allows us to present theoretical explanations of such phenomena from economics point of view and helps us to solve an old controversy regarding positive or negative responses of credit spreads to interest rates. We present numerical quantification of sensitivities, which corroborate with our conclusion that hedging of interest rate risk ought to be a dynamic process linked to the phases of business cycles as we evidence a binary-like behavior of interest rate sensitivities along the economic time. Our findings allow banks and financial institutions for approaching downside risk management and optimizing economic capital under Basel III regulatory capital rules.

Influência das tensões tectônicas na permeabilidade da formação Açu - Bacia Potiguar

The behavior of the fluid flux in oil fields is influenced by different factors and it has a big impact on the recovery of hydrocarbons. There is a need of evaluating and adapting the actual technology to the worldwide reservoirs reality, not only on the exploration (reservoir discovers) but also on the development of those that were already discovered, however not yet produced. The in situ combustion (ISC) is a suitable technique for these recovery of hydrocarbons, although it remains complex to be implemented. The main objective of this research was to study the application of the ISC as an advanced oil recovery technique through a parametric analysis of the process using vertical wells within a semi synthetic reservoir that had the characteristics from the brazilian northwest, in order to determine which of those parameters could influence the process, verifying the technical and economical viability of the method on the oil industry. For that analysis, a commercial reservoir simulation program for thermal processes was used, called steam thermal and advanced processes reservoir simulator (STARS) from the computer modeling group (CMG). This study aims, through the numerical analysis, find results that help improve mainly the interpretation and comprehension of the main problems related to the ISC method, which are not yet dominated. From the results obtained, it was proved that the mediation promoted by the thermal process ISC over the oil recovery is very important, with rates and cumulated production positively influenced by the method application. It was seen that the application of the method improves the oil mobility as a function of the heating when the combustion front forms inside the reservoir. Among all the analyzed parameters, the activation energy presented the bigger influence, it means, the lower the activation energy the bigger the fraction of recovered oil, as a function of the chemical reactions speed rise. It was also verified that the higher the enthalpy of the reaction, the bigger the fraction of recovered oil, due to a bigger amount of released energy inside the system, helping the ISC. The reservoir parameters: porosity and permeability showed to have lower influence on the ISC. Among the operational parameters that were analyzed, the injection rate was the one that showed a stronger influence on the ISC method, because, the higher the value of the injection rate, the higher was the result obtained, mainly due to maintaining the combustion front. In connection with the oxygen concentration, an increase of the percentage of this parameter translates into a higher fraction of recovered oil, because the quantity of fuel, helping the advance and the maintenance of the combustion front for a longer period of time. About the economic analysis, the ISC method showed to be economically feasible when evaluated through the net present value (NPV), considering the injection rates: the higher the injection rate, the higher the financial incomes of the final project