Genetic heterogeneity of residual variance : estimation of variance components using double hierarchical generalized linear models

Background: The sensitivity to microenvironmental changes varies among animals and may be under genetic control. It is essential to take this element into account when aiming at breeding robust farm animals. Here, linear mixed models with genetic effects in the residual variance part of the model can be used. Such models have previously been fitted using EM and MCMC algorithms. Results: We propose the use of double hierarchical generalized linear models (DHGLM), where the squared residuals are assumed to be gamma distributed and the residual variance is fitted using a generalized linear model. The algorithm iterates between two sets of mixed model equations, one on the level of observations and one on the level of variances. The method was validated using simulations and also by re-analyzing a data set on pig litter size that was previously analyzed using a Bayesian approach. The pig litter size data contained 10,060 records from 4,149 sows. The DHGLM was implemented using the ASReml software and the algorithm converged within three minutes on a Linux server. The estimates were similar to those previously obtained using Bayesian methodology, especially the variance components in the residual variance part of the model. Conclusions: We have shown that variance components in the residual variance part of a linear mixed model can be estimated using a DHGLM approach. The method enables analyses of animal models with large numbers of observations. An important future development of the DHGLM methodology is to include the genetic correlation between the random effects in the mean and residual variance parts of the model as a parameter of the DHGLM.

Likelihood prediction for generalized linear mixed models under covariate uncertainty

This paper presents the techniques of likelihood prediction for the generalized linear mixed models. Methods of likelihood prediction is explained through a series of examples; from a classical one to more complicated ones. The examples show, in simple cases, that the likelihood prediction (LP) coincides with already known best frequentist practice such as the best linear unbiased predictor. The paper outlines a way to deal with the covariate uncertainty while producing predictive inference. Using a Poisson error-in-variable generalized linear model, it has been shown that in complicated cases LP produces better results than already know methods.

Uncertainties In Future Projections Of Extreme Rainfall: The Role Of Climate Model, Emission Scenario And Randomness

Climate change has resulted in substantial variations in annual extreme rainfall quantiles in different durations and return periods. Predicting the future changes in extreme rainfall quantiles is essential for various water resources design, assessment, and decision making purposes. Current Predictions of future rainfall extremes, however, exhibit large uncertainties. According to extreme value theory, rainfall extremes are rather random variables, with changing distributions around different return periods; therefore there are uncertainties even under current climate conditions. Regarding future condition, our large-scale knowledge is obtained using global climate models, forced with certain emission scenarios. There are widely known deficiencies with climate models, particularly with respect to precipitation projections. There is also recognition of the limitations of emission scenarios in representing the future global change. Apart from these large-scale uncertainties, the downscaling methods also add uncertainty into estimates of future extreme rainfall when they convert the larger-scale projections into local scale. The aim of this research is to address these uncertainties in future projections of extreme rainfall of different durations and return periods. We plugged 3 emission scenarios with 2 global climate models and used LARS-WG, a well-known weather generator, to stochastically downscale daily climate models’ projections for the city of Saskatoon, Canada, by 2100. The downscaled projections were further disaggregated into hourly resolution using our new stochastic and non-parametric rainfall disaggregator. The extreme rainfall quantiles can be consequently identified for different durations (1-hour, 2-hour, 4-hour, 6-hour, 12-hour, 18-hour and 24-hour) and return periods (2-year, 10-year, 25-year, 50-year, 100-year) using Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. By providing multiple realizations of future rainfall, we attempt to measure the extent of total predictive uncertainty, which is contributed by climate models, emission scenarios, and downscaling/disaggregation procedures. The results show different proportions of these contributors in different durations and return periods.

Forecasting electricity demand using generalized long memory

This paper studies the electricity hourly load demand in the area covered by a utility situated in the southeast of Brazil. We propose a stochastic model which employs generalized long memory (by means of Gegenbauer processes) to model the seasonal behavior of the load. The model is proposed for sectional data, that is, each hour’s load is studied separately as a single series. This approach avoids modeling the intricate intra-day pattern (load profile) displayed by the load, which varies throughout days of the week and seasons. The forecasting performance of the model is compared with a SARIMA benchmark using the years of 1999 and 2000 as the out-of-sample. The model clearly outperforms the benchmark. We conclude for general long memory in the series.

Asymptotic efficiency in an instrumental variable model

Esta dissertação se propõe ao estudo de inferência usando estimação por método generalizado dos momentos (GMM) baseado no uso de instrumentos. A motivação para o estudo está no fato de que sob identificação fraca dos parâmetros, a inferência tradicional pode levar a resultados enganosos. Dessa forma, é feita uma revisão dos mais usuais testes para superar tal problema e uma apresentação dos arcabouços propostos por Moreira (2002) e Moreira & Moreira (2013), e Kleibergen (2005). Com isso, o trabalho concilia as estatísticas utilizadas por eles para realizar inferência e reescreve o teste score proposto em Kleibergen (2005) utilizando as estatísticas de Moreira & Moreira (2013), e é obtido usando a teoria assintótica em Newey & McFadden (1984) a estatística do teste score ótimo. Além disso, mostra-se a equivalência entre a abordagem por GMM e a que usa sistema de equações e verossimilhança para abordar o problema de identificação fraca.

Involvement of median raphe nucleus 5-HT1A receptors in the regulation of generalized anxiety-related defensive behaviours in rats

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

A novel neural model to electrical load forecasting in transformers

The paper describes a novel neural model to electrical load forecasting in transformers. The network acts as identifier of structural features to forecast process. So that output parameters can be estimated and generalized from an input parameter set. The model was trained and assessed through load data extracted from a Brazilian Electric Utility taking into account time, current, tension, active power in the three phases of the system. The results obtained in the simulations show that the developed technique can be used as an alternative tool to become more appropriate for planning of electric power systems.

Two field BPS solutions for generalized Lorentz breaking models

In this work we present nonlinear models in two-dimensional space-time of two interacting scalar fields in the Lorentz and CPT violating scenarios. We discuss the soliton solutions for these models as well as the question of stability for them. This is done by generalizing a model recently published by Barreto and collaborators and also by getting new solutions for the model introduced by them.

Generalized duality between local vector theories in D=2+1

The existence of an interpolating master action does not guarantee the same spectrum for the interpolated dual theories. In the specific case of a generalized self-dual (GSD) model defined as the addition of the Maxwell term to the self-dual model in D = 2 + 1, previous master actions have furnished a dual gauge theory which is either nonlocal or contains a ghost mode. Here we show that by reducing the Maxwell term to first order by means of an auxiliary field we are able to define a master action which interpolates between the GSD model and a couple of non-interacting Maxwell-Chern-Simons theories of opposite helicities. The presence of an auxiliary field explains the doubling of fields in the dual gauge theory. A generalized duality transformation is defined and both models can be interpreted as self-dual models. Furthermore, it is shown how to obtain the gauge invariant correlators of the non-interacting MCS theories from the correlators of the self-dual field in the GSD model and vice-versa. The derivation of the non-interacting MCS theories from the GSD model, as presented here, works in the opposite direction of the soldering approach.

Generalized partition function zeros of 1D spin models and their critical behavior at edge singularities

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Study of charge transport in blends of natural rubber and poly(o-methoxyaniline) based on a resistor network statistical model

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Generalized sine-Gordon/massive Thirring models and soliton/particle correspondences

We consider a real Lagrangian off-critical submodel describing the soliton sector of the so-called conformal affine sl(3)((1)) Toda model coupled to matter fields. The theory is treated as a constrained system in the context of Faddeev-Jackiw and the symplectic schemes. We exhibit the parent Lagrangian nature of the model from which generalizations of the sine-Gordon (GSG) or the massive Thirring (GMT) models are derivable. The dual description of the model is further emphasized by providing the relationships between bilinears of GMT spinors and relevant expressions of the GSG fields. In this way we exhibit the strong/weak coupling phases and the (generalized) soliton/particle correspondences of the model. The sl(n)((1)) case is also outlined. (C) 2002 American Institute of Physics.

Generalized squeezing operators, bipartite Wigner functions and entanglement via Wehrl's entropy functionals

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

BORN-INFELD ELECTRODYNAMICS and EULER-HEISENBERG-LIKE MODEL: OUTSTANDING EXAMPLES of THE LACK of COMMUTATIVITY AMONG QUANTIZED TRUNCATED ACTIONS and TRUNCATED QUANTIZED ACTIONS

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Test of the adiabatic nucleation model in SeTe and GeSnSe glasses

Se1-yTey and Ge1-ySnySe2.5 glasses, with compositions Y less than or equal to 0.5 and Y less than or equal to 0.6 respectively, are investigated. These glasses show a glass transition temperature (T-g) above the stability limit, indicated by the Adiabatic Nucleation Model (ANM). This effect has to be so because, other-wise, when cooled, these undercooled liquids would crystallize by generalized nucleation near the stability limit and no T-g could be observed. This shows that Se1-yTey glasses for Y < 0.5 are structurally stable. Limiting cases are pure Te and Se50Te50, which have T'(g)'s on the stability limit. Pure amorphous Te has to be obtained by fast quenching techniques, where the effective (fast quenching) T-g(*) is higher and Se50Te50 tends to crystallize easily. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.