AITPM Email Newsletter Volume 0907, July 2009 : President's Message

President’s Message AITPM President’s Message, July 2009 Hello fellow AITPM members, It’s now very early July so many Australians are going to experience a range of new, or increases in, fees, charges, and perhaps taxes by State and local governments. For example, Queenslanders are to be hit at the petrol pump, no longer living with the luxury of the State’s previous 8c per litre fuel subsidy, bringing general motorists’ fuel costs into line with the other States. A consolation is that they now don’t have to live with the real or perceived “price gouging” that has appeared in the past to make Queensland prices much closer than 8c to those in other States. Environmental lobbyists argue that this Government’s decision brings public transport costs closer to parity with private transport. However, my sense from sloppy petrol price elasticities is that the State’s motorists will get used to the reversal of what was a reverse tax pretty quickly, an amount which can be less than day-of-the week fluctuation. On the other hand, withholding this State revenue may help in some way the funding of the several major public transport infrastructure projects in progress; not to mention some of the cost of running the Transit Authority’s expanding service commitments. Other policy actions, such as a Federal Government review of taxation on employees’ package vehicles, which might discourage rather than encourage excess kilometres travelled, may have a greater environmental benefit. Of course, a downside is that many vehicles used so are Australian built, and discouraging fleet turnover may damage an industry which faces ever increasing uncertainty, and particularly at the present, is in need of some care and attention. I for one hope to this end that the new 4 cylinder (1.8L petrol or 2L diesel) so called “true Holden” Cruze and Toyota’s pending Camry Hybrid are both roaring successes, and will be taken up in droves as fleet and employee use vehicles. I’m not sure what drive-trains Ford and Holden plan to drop into their next full sized models but even if they’re not Australian sourced, let’s hope they coordinate the requisite performance expected by the “Aussie Battler” with suitable green credentials. I am also encouraged to see that already many Government fleet vehicles are smaller in size, but still fit for purpose. For instance, my local police station uses the Camry based Aurion as a district car. I close again in reminding everyone that AITPM’s flagship event, the 2009 AITPM National Conference, Traffic Beyond Tomorrow, is being held in Adelaide from 5 to 7 August. www.aitpm.com has all of the details about how to register, sponsor a booth, session, etc. Best regards all, Jon Bunker

Effective models of employment-based training

Australia needs highly skilled workers to sustain a healthy economy. Current employment-based training models have limitations in meeting the demands for highly skilled labour supply. The research explored current and emerging models of employment-based training to propose more effective models at higher VET qualifications that can maintain a balance between institution and work-based learning.

Images of desire : cognitive models of craving

Cognitive modelling of phenomena in clinical practice allows the operationalisation of otherwise diffuse descriptive terms such as craving or flashbacks. This supports the empirical investigation of the clinical phenomena and the development of targeted treatment interventions. This paper focuses on the cognitive processes underpinning craving, which is recognised as a motivating experience in substance dependence. We use a high-level cognitive architecture, Interacting Cognitive Subsystems (ICS), to compare two theories of craving: Tiffany's theory, centred on the control of automated action schemata, and our own Elaborated Intrusion theory of craving. Data from a questionnaire study of the subjective aspects of everyday desires experienced by a large non-clinical population are presented. Both the data and the high-level modelling support the central claim of the Elaborated Intrusion theory that imagery is a key element of craving, providing the subjective experience and mediating much of the associated disruption of concurrent cognition.

Bubble geometry and chaotic pricing behaviour

This paper is a deductive theoretical enquiry into the flow of effects from the geometry of price bubbles/busts, to price indices, to pricing behaviours of sellers and buyers, and back to price bubbles/busts. The intent of the analysis is to suggest analytical approaches to identify the presence, maturity, and/or sustainability of a price bubble. We present a pricing model to emulate market behaviour, including numeric examples and charts of the interaction of supply and demand. The model extends into dynamic market solutions myopic (single- and multi-period) backward looking rational expectations to demonstrate how buyers and sellers interact to affect supply and demand and to show how capital gain expectations can be a destabilising influence – i.e. the lagged effects of past price gains can drive the market price away from long-run market-worth. Investing based on the outputs of past price-based valuation models appear to be more of a game-of-chance than a sound investment strategy.

Merging business process models

This paper addresses the following problem: given two or more business process models, create a process model that is the union of the process models given as input. In other words, the behavior of the produced process model should encompass that of the input models. The paper describes an algorithm that produces a single configurable process model from an arbitrary collection of process models. The algorithm works by extracting the common parts of the input process models, creating a single copy of them, and appending the differences as branches of configurable connectors. This way, the merged process model is kept as small as possible, while still capturing all the behavior of the input models. Moreover, analysts are able to trace back from which original model(s) does a given element in the merged model come from. The algorithm has been prototyped and tested against process models taken from several application domains.

Effective employment-based training models for childcare workers

Childcare workers play a significant role in the learning and development of children in their care. This has major implications for the training of workers. Under new reforms of the childcare industry the Australian government now requires all workers to obtain qualifications from a vocational education and training provider (eg. Technical and Further Education) or university. Effective models of employment-based training are critical to provide training to highly competent workers. This paper presents findings from a study that examined current and emerging models of employment-based training in the childcare sector, particularly at the Diploma level. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with a sample of 16 participants who represented childcare directors, employers, and workers located in childcare services in urban, regional and remote locations in the State of Queensland. The study proposes a ‘best-fit’ employment-based training approach that is characterised by a compendium of five models instead of a ‘one size fits all’. Issues with successful implementation of the EBT models are also discussed

Mathematical models for describing the shape of the in vitro unstretched human crystalline lens

We developed orthogonal least-squares techniques for fitting crystalline lens shapes, and used the bootstrap method to determine uncertainties associated with the estimated vertex radii of curvature and asphericities of five different models. Three existing models were investigated including one that uses two separate conics for the anterior and posterior surfaces, and two whole lens models based on a modulated hyperbolic cosine function and on a generalized conic function. Two new models were proposed including one that uses two interdependent conics and a polynomial based whole lens model. The models were used to describe the in vitro shape for a data set of twenty human lenses with ages 7–82 years. The two-conic-surface model (7 mm zone diameter) and the interdependent surfaces model had significantly lower merit functions than the other three models for the data set, indicating that most likely they can describe human lens shape over a wide age range better than the other models (although with the two-conic-surfaces model being unable to describe the lens equatorial region). Considerable differences were found between some models regarding estimates of radii of curvature and surface asphericities. The hyperbolic cosine model and the new polynomial based whole lens model had the best precision in determining the radii of curvature and surface asphericities across the five considered models. Most models found significant increase in anterior, but not posterior, radius of curvature with age. Most models found a wide scatter of asphericities, but with the asphericities usually being positive and not significantly related to age. As the interdependent surfaces model had lower merit function than three whole lens models, there is further scope to develop an accurate model of the complete shape of human lenses of all ages. The results highlight the continued difficulty in selecting an appropriate model for the crystalline lens shape.

Models of supervision : from theory to practice

This chapter will address psychodynamic, cognitive-behavioural, and developmental models in supervision by initially considering the historical underpinnings of each and then examining in turn some of the key processes that are evident in the supervisory relationships. Case studies are included where appropriate to highlight the application of theory to practice and several processes are fully elaborated over all models to enable a contemporary view of style and substance in the supervision context.

The effect of language models on phonetic decoding for spoken term detection

Spoken term detection (STD) popularly involves performing word or sub-word level speech recognition and indexing the result. This work challenges the assumption that improved speech recognition accuracy implies better indexing for STD. Using an index derived from phone lattices, this paper examines the effect of language model selection on the relationship between phone recognition accuracy and STD accuracy. Results suggest that language models usually improve phone recognition accuracy but their inclusion does not always translate to improved STD accuracy. The findings suggest that using phone recognition accuracy to measure the quality of an STD index can be problematic, and highlight the need for an alternative that is more closely aligned with the goals of the specific detection task.

Assessing information systems success models : empirical comparison (Research in Progress)

Information System (IS) success may be the most arguable and important dependent variable in the IS field. The purpose of the present study is to address IS success by empirically assess and compare DeLone and McLean’s (1992) and Gable’s et al. (2008) models of IS success in Australian Universities context. The two models have some commonalities and several important distinctions. Both models integrate and interrelate multiple dimensions of IS success. Hence, it would be useful to compare the models to see which is superior; as it is not clear how IS researchers should respond to this controversy.

Stochastic modelling of financial time series with memory and multifractal scaling

Financial processes may possess long memory and their probability densities may display heavy tails. Many models have been developed to deal with this tail behaviour, which reflects the jumps in the sample paths. On the other hand, the presence of long memory, which contradicts the efficient market hypothesis, is still an issue for further debates. These difficulties present challenges with the problems of memory detection and modelling the co-presence of long memory and heavy tails. This PhD project aims to respond to these challenges. The first part aims to detect memory in a large number of financial time series on stock prices and exchange rates using their scaling properties. Since financial time series often exhibit stochastic trends, a common form of nonstationarity, strong trends in the data can lead to false detection of memory. We will take advantage of a technique known as multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) that can systematically eliminate trends of different orders. This method is based on the identification of scaling of the q-th-order moments and is a generalisation of the standard detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) which uses only the second moment; that is, q = 2. We also consider the rescaled range R/S analysis and the periodogram method to detect memory in financial time series and compare their results with the MF-DFA. An interesting finding is that short memory is detected for stock prices of the American Stock Exchange (AMEX) and long memory is found present in the time series of two exchange rates, namely the French franc and the Deutsche mark. Electricity price series of the five states of Australia are also found to possess long memory. For these electricity price series, heavy tails are also pronounced in their probability densities. The second part of the thesis develops models to represent short-memory and longmemory financial processes as detected in Part I. These models take the form of continuous-time AR(∞) -type equations whose kernel is the Laplace transform of a finite Borel measure. By imposing appropriate conditions on this measure, short memory or long memory in the dynamics of the solution will result. A specific form of the models, which has a good MA(∞) -type representation, is presented for the short memory case. Parameter estimation of this type of models is performed via least squares, and the models are applied to the stock prices in the AMEX, which have been established in Part I to possess short memory. By selecting the kernel in the continuous-time AR(∞) -type equations to have the form of Riemann-Liouville fractional derivative, we obtain a fractional stochastic differential equation driven by Brownian motion. This type of equations is used to represent financial processes with long memory, whose dynamics is described by the fractional derivative in the equation. These models are estimated via quasi-likelihood, namely via a continuoustime version of the Gauss-Whittle method. The models are applied to the exchange rates and the electricity prices of Part I with the aim of confirming their possible long-range dependence established by MF-DFA. The third part of the thesis provides an application of the results established in Parts I and II to characterise and classify financial markets. We will pay attention to the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the American Stock Exchange (AMEX), the NASDAQ Stock Exchange (NASDAQ) and the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX). The parameters from MF-DFA and those of the short-memory AR(∞) -type models will be employed in this classification. We propose the Fisher discriminant algorithm to find a classifier in the two and three-dimensional spaces of data sets and then provide cross-validation to verify discriminant accuracies. This classification is useful for understanding and predicting the behaviour of different processes within the same market. The fourth part of the thesis investigates the heavy-tailed behaviour of financial processes which may also possess long memory. We consider fractional stochastic differential equations driven by stable noise to model financial processes such as electricity prices. The long memory of electricity prices is represented by a fractional derivative, while the stable noise input models their non-Gaussianity via the tails of their probability density. A method using the empirical densities and MF-DFA will be provided to estimate all the parameters of the model and simulate sample paths of the equation. The method is then applied to analyse daily spot prices for five states of Australia. Comparison with the results obtained from the R/S analysis, periodogram method and MF-DFA are provided. The results from fractional SDEs agree with those from MF-DFA, which are based on multifractal scaling, while those from the periodograms, which are based on the second order, seem to underestimate the long memory dynamics of the process. This highlights the need and usefulness of fractal methods in modelling non-Gaussian financial processes with long memory.

Simplified numerical models of LiteSteel Beam floor joists with Web openings for the prediction of section moment capacities

This paper is aimed at investigating the effect of web openings on the plastic bending behaviour and section moment capacity of a new cold-formed steel beam known as LiteSteel beam (LSB) using numerical modelling. Different LSB sections with varying circular hole diameter and spacing were considered. A simplified but appropriate numerical modelling technique was developed for the modelling of monosymmetric sections such as LSBs subject to bending, and was used to simulate a series of section moment capacity tests of LSB flexural members with web openings. The buckling and ultimate strength behaviour was investigated in detail and the modeling technique was further improved through a comparison of numerical and experimental results. This paper describes the simplified finite element modeling technique used in this study that includes all the significant behavioural effects affecting the plastic bending behaviour and section moment capacity of LSB sections with web holes. Numerical and test results and associated findings are also presented.