Um olhar estratégico para o Projeto “Cenários Ambientais 2020” proposto pela Secretaria de Meio Ambiente do Estado de São Paulo

In recent years the development based on a pattern of production and consumption in large-scale, established relations with degrading the environment, jeopardizing the availability of natural resources. From then on, it became necessary to integrate the environmental dimension to the other planning issues, appearing then the Environmental Planning. The objective of the Environmental Planning generally defined by society, aims help in making decisions; subsidized by a diagnosis at the same time identify and define objectives more environmentally suitable to assist in developing public policy. Thus, the development of prospective scenarios together by experts and stakeholders assists in public policy development and decision-making. In 2007, seeking to structure environmental management in the State, the Department of the Environment of São Paulo has created 21 Strategic Environmental Projects, including the project Cenários Ambientais 2020 with the goal of developing public policy proposals for medium and long term from prospective environmental scenarios. This paper reviews the methodologies used in constructing the scenarios in this project; sought to evaluate the construction process according to what is proposed by Alcamo and Henrichs (2008); and investigated the context that encouraged the development of the project

Der Wandel der bildungspolitischen Ansichten der Weltbank /// Arbeitspapiere / Institut für Ethnologie und Afrikastudien; 82

Der Wandel der bildungspolitischen Ansichten der Weltbank. In dieser Arbeit wird dargestellt, welchen Stellenwert das Thema Bildung in der Politik der Weltbank von 1962 bis heute besessen hat und welche Prioritätensetzung es in der Förderung von Bildungsprojekten zu welchem Zeitpunkt gab. Nach diesen Kriterien werden fünf Phasen in der Bildungspolitik der Weltbank unterschieden. In der ersten Phase (1962 bis Ende der 1970er Jahre) ist ein geringes Interesse der Weltbank am Bildungssektor und ein fehlendes Gesamtkonzept ihrer Bildungspolitik erkennbar. Gefördert wurden in dieser Zeit hauptsächlich Sekundar- und Hochschulbildung. Die zweite Phase (Ende der 1970er Jahre bis 1987) zeichnet sich durch die Förderung von Primarschulbildung und durch einen geringen Bedeutungsgewinn des Themas Bildung als einen entwicklungspolitischen Faktor aus. In der dritten Phase (1987 bis Mitte der 1990er Jahre) wurde der Schwerpunkt der Förderung der Weltbank im Bereich Primarschulförderung um die Bereiche Sekundar- und Hochschulförderung ergänzt. Da Bildung nur als ein Aspekt des Ziels der Armutsbekämpfung betrachtet wurde, mangelte es in der vierten Phase (Mitte bis Ende der 1990er Jahre) an einem eigenständigen Konzept für die Förderung des Bildungssektors. In dieser Zeit war nur eine leichte Schwerpunktsetzung in den Primarschulbereich erkennbar. In der fünften Phase (ab dem Jahre 2000) setzt die Weltbank in der Förderung wieder auf eine Kombination von Primar-, Sekundar- und Hochschulbildung. Bildung wird nun als ein eigenständiges Ziel der Entwicklungszusammenarbeit angesehen. Bei der Betrachtung des Wandels der bildungspolitischen Ansichten der Weltbank wird die additive Politik der Weltbank deutlich. Alte Strategien werden nicht komplett verworfen, sondern lediglich neue Aspekte und Schwerpunktsetzungen in die alten Konzepte eingeflochten. Außerdem sind eine Widersprüchlichkeit in der Bildungspolitik, das Fehlen eines langfristigen Konzeptes, große Unterschiede zwischen den theoretischen Konzepten und der Umsetzung der Bildungspolitik der Weltbank zu erkennen. Festzuhalten ist, dass das Thema Bildung von 1962 bis heute in der Politik der Weltbank stark an Bedeutung hinzugewonnen hat.

Genderperspektive und Frauenförderung in der deutschen Entwicklungszusammenarbeit : der „Entwicklungspolitische Gender-Aktionsplan 2009 - 2012“ des Bundesministeriums für wirtschaftliche Zusammenarbeit und Entwicklung (BMZ)/// Arbeitspapiere / Institut für Ethnologie und Afrikastudien ; 110

Der vorliegende Artikel befasst sich mit aktuellen Strategien bezüglich Gender und Frauenförderung in der deutschen Entwicklungspolitik. Dabei steht eine Analyse des „Entwicklungspolitischen Gender-Aktionsplans 2009-2012“ des Bundesministeriums für Wirtschaftliche Zusammenarbeit und Entwicklung (BMZ) im Fokus. Ausgangspunkt hierfür ist die internationale Debatte über Gender und Frauenförderung in der Entwicklungspolitik, welche eine Reihe unterschiedlicher, zum Teil konträrer Argumentationsstränge und strategischer Handlungsweisen hervorgebracht hat. Auf den ersten Blick ist das BMZ den neuesten Entwicklungen in dieser Debatte vollständig gefolgt. Die Analyse des Gender-Aktionsplans zeigt jedoch, dass in der Politikformulierung des BMZ nur partiell auf Argumente zurückgegriffen wird, die eine konsequente Einbeziehung von Gender sowie die Umsetzung von Empowerment und Gender Mainstreaming fordern. Das Resultat ist eine unzulängliche Darstellung von Frauen und Geschlechterverhältnissen in Entwicklungsländern.

The Active Subjects of Welfare Reform: a Street-Level Comparison of Employment Services in Australia and Denmark

This paper explores the similarities and differences between Denmark and Australia in adopting welfare reform activation measures in the field of employment services. In Australia and Denmark the discourse of welfare reform centres the 'activation' of citizens through 'mutual obligation' type requirements. Through various forms of case management, unemployed individuals are encouraged to act upon themselves in creating the right set of ethical dispositions congruent with 'active citizenship'. At the same time any resistance to heightened conditionality on the part of the unemployed person is dealt with through a range of coercive and disciplinary techniques. A comparative case study between these two countries allows us to consider how similar ideas, discourse and principles are shaping policy implementation in countries that have very different welfare state trajectories and institutional arrangements for the delivery of social welfare generally and employment services specifically. And in research terms, a comparison between a Nordic welfare state and an Anglo-Saxon welfare state provides an opportunity to critically examine the utility of 'welfare regime' type analyses and the neo-liberal convergence thesis in comparative welfare research. On the basis of empirical analysis, the article concludes that a single focus on abstract typologies or political ideologies is not very helpful in getting the measure of welfare reform (or any other major policy development for that matter). At the 'street-level' of policy practice there is considerably more ambiguity, incoherence and contradiction than is suggested by linear accounts of welfare reform.

Maximising the impact of research: the NCCR North-South approach: Fourth NCCR North-South Report on Effectiveness

Interest is growing in the impact that science can have on reducing poverty in the global South. If we understand impact as the “demonstrable contribution that excellent research makes to society and the economy”, the concept encompasses a variety of contributions of research-related knowledge and skills that benefit people and the environment. One reason for the growing interest in impact in this context is research councils’ increasing focus on documenting the social and environmental benefits of science, as indicated by the above quotation from the British research councils. Another reason is that research funding agencies from the private and public sectors are now more interested in social innovations for solving problems on the ground. Research can indeed influence policymakers’ views, policy development, funding patterns, and implementation or practice. This is promising for those who would like to improve – and prove – the influence research can have on policy and practice. It is also of importance for better understanding the intended and unintended effects of research. This report presents the NCCR North-South approach to increasing the impact of development-oriented research. It explains how we can maximise our impact and how we can assess whether our efforts have worked, based on six case studies from around the world. The report is of interest to all researchers who wish to respond to policy and practice from their point of view and who are keen on publicising their evidence. It is also relevant to those who teach how to maximise research impact.

Sanitation in developing countries: A review through a gender lens

Sanitation has evolved from a purely technical discipline to one that includes social, environmental, economic and, increasingly, gender considerations. However, blurry notions of gender are frequently offered in the sanitation literature. Although it has been recognized that gender-responsive sanitation does not mean ‘toilets for women’, substantial alternatives are rarely debated. We structure our review of sanitation in developing countries along three lines: we start by fine-tuning the concept of gender both from the academic and the practitioner's perspective, analyse relevant developments in gender-specific policies and programming, and finally review the most appropriate toilet room and menstrual hygiene technologies. We argue that strategies to make technologies gender-responsive need to be based upon a thorough analysis of the social arrangements of the intimate, and how these are negotiated and institutionalized in a specific context. A lack of robust gender-segregated data on sanitation policies and technologies, along with reductionist framings of gender are to blame for limited progress in verifying the need for, and impact of, gender-responsive sanitation. Technology and policy development and implementation would benefit from gender-considerate interpretations of shame, dignity, safety and status. Further progress could be achieved by improving the translation process between different academic framings of the sanitation crisis. Keywords: appropriate technology; development; gender; menstrual hygiene management (MHM); sanitation

Tackling Copyright in the Digital Age: An Initiative of the University of Connecticut Libraries

From 2005 to 2007, the University of Connecticut Libraries Copyright Project Team engaged in a wide range of activities to fulfill its charge and to raise awareness of copyright issues in the library and across the university. This article highlights some of the primary activities and tools used by the team to involve stakeholders, to provide educational opportunities, and to stay current on copyright issues in higher education. Among other activities, the team developed a new copyright web site for use by library staff and the broader university community.

Evaluation of the LBJ Hospital Ask Your Nurse Advice Line

This retrospective, case-control study investigated the effectiveness of the Houston, Texas Ask Your Nurse Advice Line (AYN) in diverting callers with non-emergent medical conditions away from the emergency department (ED). After asking callers a series of questions, AYN nurses evaluate the medical condition and make recommendations for appropriate care, e.g., home care, see a clinic physician, or visit the ED. To evaluate the AYN, the rate of caller ED visits before accessing the AYN for the first time was compared to the caller ED visit rate afterwards. The pre-post rate change was compared to that of a control group of similar caller age, race, gender, and insurance status drawn from a Harris County Hospital District HCHD database. ^ The treatment group (AYN caller) had a 66% reduction in ED visits after the first AYN call compared to an 18% drop in ED visits among control group subjects during the same time period. Study results were presented to HCHD staff on August 30th, 2007 and recommendations were made for future studies that would provide a basis for policy development. ^

Factors affecting prenatal care use and pregnancy outcome in Texas: A comparative study among and within Black, Anglo, and Hispanic populations

This research project is a study in the field of public health to test the relationships of demographic, socioeconomic, behavioral, and biological factors with (1) prenatal care use and (2) pregnancy outcome, measured by birth weight. It has been postulated that demographic, socioeconomic, and behavioral factors are associated with differences in the use of prenatal care services. It has also been postulated that differences in demographic, socioeconomic, behavioral, and biological factors result in differences in birth weight. This research attempts to test these two basic conceptual frameworks. At the same time, an attempt is made to determine the population groups and subgroups that are at increased risk (1) of using fewer prenatal care visits, and (2) of displaying a higher incidence of low birth weight babies. An understanding of these relationships of the demographic, socioeconomic, behavioral, and biological factors in the use of prenatal care visits and pregnancy outcome, measured by birth weight, will potentially offer guidance in the planning and policy development of maternal and child health services. The research considers four major components of maternal characteristics: (1) Demographic factors. Ethnicity, household size, maternal parity, and maternal age; (2) Socioeconomic factors. Maternal education, family income, maternal employment, health insurance coverage, and household dwelling; (3) Behavioral factors. Maternal smoking, attendance at child development classes, mother's first prenatal care visit, total number of prenatal care visits, and adequacy of care; and, (4) Biological factors. Maternal weight gain during pregnancy.^ The research considers 16 independent variables and two dependent variables.^ It was concluded that: (1) Generally, differences in demographic, socioeconomic, and behavioral factors were associated with differences in the average number of prenatal care visits between and within population groups and subgroups. The Hispanic mothers were the lowest users of prenatal care services. (2) In some cases, differences in demographic, socioeconomic, behavioral, and biological factors demonstrated differences in the average birth weight of infants between and within population groups and subgroups. (3) Differences in demographic, socioeconomic, behavioral, and biological factors resulted in differences in the rates of low birth weight babies between and within population groups and subgroups. The Black mothers delivered the highest incidence of low birth weight infants.^ These findings could provide guidance in the formulation of public health policies such as MCH services, an increase in the use of prenatal care services by prospective mothers, resulting in reduction of the incidence of low birth weight babies, and consequently aid in reducing the rates of infant mortality. ^

HEALTH CARE COST INCREASES IN METROPOLITAN AREAS

The research project is an extension of the economic theory to the health care field and health care research projects evaluating the influence of demand and supply variables upon medical care inflation. The research tests a model linking the demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of the population, its community case mix, and technology, the prices of goods and services other than medical care, the way its medical services are delivered and the health care resources available to its population to different utilization patterns which, consequently, lead to variations in health care prices among metropolitan areas. The research considers the relationship of changes in community characteristics and resources and medical care inflation.^ The rapidly increasing costs of medical care have been of great concern to the general public, medical profession, and political bodies. Research and analysis of the main factors responsible for the rate of increase of medical care prices is necessary in order to devise appropriate solutions to cope with the problem. An understanding of the community characteristics and resources-medical care costs relationships in the metropolitan areas potentially offers guidance in individual plan and national policy development.^ The research considers 145 factors measuring community milieu (demographic, social, educational, economic, illness level, prices of goods and services other than medical care, hospital supply, physicians resources and techological factors). Through bivariate correlation analysis, the number of variables was reduced to a set of 1 to 4 variables for each cost equation. Two approaches were identified to track inflation in the health care industry. One approach measures costs of production which accounts for price and volume increases. The other approach measures price increases. One general and four specific measures were developed to represent each of the major approaches. The general measure considers the increase on medical care prices as a whole and the specific measures deal with hospital costs and physician's fees. The relationships among changes in community characteristics and resources and health care inflation were analyzed using bivariate correlation and regression analysis methods. It has been concluded that changes in community characteristics and resources are predictive of hospital costs and physician's fees inflation, but are not predictive of increases in medical care prices. These findings provide guidance in the formulation of public policy which could alter the trend of medical care inflation and in the allocation of limited Federal funds.^

Systematic review of current trends of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and association between health insurance coverage and CVD mortality among women aged 60--65 in Texas in 2000--2011

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is highly preventable, yet it is a leading cause of death among women in Texas. The primary goals of this research were to examine past and current trends of CVD, as well as identify whether there is an association between the insurance coverage and mortality from CVD among women aged 60–65 in Texas between 2000 and 2011. ^ The systematic review of the research is based on the guidelines and recommendations set by the Centre for Reviews and Dissemination for conducting reviews in health care. Over 47 citations of peer-reviewed articles from Ovid MEDLINE and PubMed databases and five websites were identified, of which 7 studies met inclusion criteria for the first systematic review to examine the trends of CVD in Texas. Ten citations of peer-reviewed articles from Ovid MEDLINE and PubMed databases and five web sites were reviewed for the second systematic review (to study the association between insurance coverage and cardiovascular health among Texas women 60–64 years of age), of which 3 studies met inclusion criteria and were included in the research. The results of the study highlighted key gaps in the existing literature and important areas for the further research, as well as determined directions for future public health CVD prevention programs in Texas. ^ Based on the conducted research, the major determinants of premature mortality among women attributed to cardiovascular disease are based on individual level characteristics, more specifically sex, age, race/ethnicity, and education. The results indicate that African American and non-Hispanic white women are more likely to have higher CVD mortality rates than Hispanic women due to higher prevalence of cardiac risk factors. The data also shows higher levels of mortality from CVD in the southeastern United States, with Texas ranking as the third state with the highest prevalence of CVD among women. According to the Texas Department of State Health Services, there are approximately 56,000 deaths caused by CVD annually in Texas, which represents about one death every ten minutes. Coronary artery disease and stroke were the causes of 31.2 percent of all female deaths in Texas in 2009, meaning that approximately 68 women die from any form of cardiac disease in Texas each day. ^ The data of the reviewed studies indicate that women' lack of health insurance was significantly associated with a higher prevalence of cardiovascular disease. The uninsured women were more likely to be unaware of their risk factors and more likely to have undiagnosed diabetes—a co-morbidity factor of CVD. One of the studies also reports strong correlation between state rates of uninsured and lower rates of preventive care. Given these strong correlations, those who were chronically uninsured were at a higher risk of mortality than the insured, due to prolonged periods of time without basic access to preventive and medical care. ^ Suggested recommendations to decrease CVD mortality rates in Texas are consistent with the existing literature and include state policy development that addresses elimination of health disparities, consideration of potential benefits of universal health coverage by the legislative policymakers, and maintenance of solid partnerships between public health agencies and hospitals to educate on, diagnose, and treat CVD among the female population in Texas. ^

Looking Inside The Black Box

Intensive family preservation services (IFPS), designed to stabilize at-risk families and avert out-of-home care, have been the focus of many randomized, experimental studies. The emphasis on "gold-standard" evaluation of IFPS has resulted in fewer "black box" studies that describe actual IFPS service patterns and the fidelity with which they adhere to IFPS program theory. Intervention research is important to the advancement of programs designed to protect the safety of children, improve family functioning, as well as prevent out-of-home placement. Employing a retrospective “clinical data-mining” (CDM) methodology, this exploratory study of Families First, an IFPS program, makes use of available information extracted from client records to describe interventions and service patterns provided over a two year period. This study uncovers actual IFPS service patterns, demonstrates IFPS program fidelity, as well as reveals the usefulness of CDM as a social work research methodology. These findings are particularly valuable for program planning and treatment, policy development and evidence-based practice research.

開発戦略としてのPro-Poor Growth －貧困層への雇用創出－

本稿は、後発開発途上国においてpro-poor growthを達成する開発戦略を、産業政策との関連から研究したものである。アジアとアフリカの経済発展プロセスにおいて、貧困層にどの産業が雇用機会を提供するか、を研究した。その結果明らかになったのは、1970-90年代の典型的な東アジア高成長経済であるタイと台湾において、貧困層に最も大きな雇用機会を与えたのが農業部門であったのに対して、貧困層の雇用機会増に最も貢献したのが製造業部門であったということである。同様の傾向は、アフリカの輸出指向成長国であるモーリシャスについても観察された。一方、グローバリゼーションの活力が十分に生かされなかったマラウィ、南アフリカ、インドにおいては、製造業が同様の雇用機会を貧困層に提供できなかった。結論として導かれるのは、典型的な後発発展途上国においては、雇用に関して農業のシェアが製造業のシェアを上回るのが一般的であるものの、もし比較優位がグローバリゼーションの中で顕在化できるのであれば、貧困層の雇用機会増に関して、農業よりも製造業の貢献度が大きくなりうる、ということである。一国全体の経済発展という観点のみならず、貧困層に利益をもたらすpro-poor growthという文脈においても、製造業の果たす役割が無視し得ないことが明らかになった。

Propuesta metodológica de aplicación sectorial de Análisis de Ciclo de Vida (ACV) para la evaluación ambiental de la edificación en España

La aplicación de criterios de sostenibilidad ha de entenderse como el procedimiento esencial para la necesaria reconversión del sector de la construcción, que movilizando el 10% de la economía mundial, representa más de la tercera parte del consumo mundial de recursos, en torno al 30-40% del consumo energético y emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero, 30-40% de la generación de residuos y el 12% de todo el gasto en agua dulce del planeta. La presente investigación se enmarca en una estrategia general de promover la evaluación de la sostenibilidad en la edificación en el contexto español, dando un primer paso centrado en la evaluación del comportamiento ambiental. El hilo conductor de la investigación parte de la necesidad de establecer un marco teórico de sostenibilidad, que permita clarificar conceptos y definir criterios de valoración adecuados. Como siguiente paso, la investigación se dirige a la revisión del panorama internacional de normativa e instrumentos voluntarios, con el objetivo de clarificar el difuso panorama que caracteriza a la sostenibilidad en el sector de la edificación en la actualidad y enmarcar la investigación en un contexto de políticas y programaciones ya existentes. El objetivo principal reside en el planteamiento de una metodología de evaluación de los aspectos o impactos ambientales asociados al ciclo de vida de la edificación, aplicable al contexto español, como una de las tres dimensiones que constituyen los pilares básicos de la sostenibilidad. Los ámbitos de evaluación de los aspectos sociales y económicos, para los que no existe actualmente un grado de definición metodológico suficientemente congruente, son adicionalmente examinados, de cara a ofrecer una visión holística de la evaluación. Previo al desarrollo de la propuesta, se aborda, en primer lugar, la descripción de las características básicas y limitaciones de la metodología de Análisis de Ciclo de Vida (ACV), para posteriormente proceder a profundizar en el estado del arte de aplicación de ACV a la edificación, realizando una revisión crítica de los trabajos de investigación que han sido desarrollados en los últimos años. Esta revisión permite extraer conclusiones sobre su grado de coherencia con el futuro entorno normativo e identificar dos necesidades prioritarias de actuación: -La necesidad de armonización, dadas las fuertes inconsistencias metodológicas detectadas, que imposibilitan la comparación de los resultados obtenidos en los trabajos de evaluación. -La necesidad de simplificación, dada la complejidad inherente a la evaluación, de modo que, manteniendo el máximo rigor, sea viable su aplicación práctica en el contexto español. A raíz de la participación en los trabajos de desarrollo normativo a nivel europeo, se ha adquirido una visión crítica sobre las implicaciones metodológicas de la normativa en definición, que permite identificar la hoja de ruta que marcará el escenario europeo en los próximos años. La definición de la propuesta metodológica integra los principios generales de aplicación de ACV con el protocolo metodológico establecido en la norma europea, considerando adicionalmente las referencias normativas de las prácticas constructivas en el contexto español. En el planteamiento de la propuesta se han analizado las posibles simplificaciones aplicables, con el objetivo de hacer viable su implementación, centrando los esfuerzos en la sistematización del concepto de equivalente funcional, el establecimiento de recomendaciones sobre el tipo de datos en función de su disponibilidad y la revisión crítica de los modelos de cálculo de los impactos ambientales. Las implicaciones metodológicas de la propuesta se describen a través de una serie de casos de estudio, que ilustran su viabilidad y las características básicas de aplicación. Finalmente, se realiza un recorrido por los aspectos que han sido identificados como prioritarios en la conformación del escenario de perspectivas futuras, líneas de investigación y líneas de acción. Abstract Sustainability criteria application must be understood as the essential procedure for the necessary restructuring of the construction sector, which mobilizes 10% of the world economy, accounting for more than one third of the consumption of the world's resources, around 30 - 40% of energy consumption and emissions of greenhouse gases, 30-40% of waste generation and 12% of all the fresh water use in the world. This research is in line with an overall strategy to promote the sustainability assessment of building in the Spanish context, taking a first step focused on the environmental performance assessment. The thread of the present research sets out from the need to establish a theoretical framework of sustainability which clarifies concepts and defines appropriate endpoints. As a next step, the research focuses on the review of the international panorama regulations and voluntary instruments, with the aim of clarifying the fuzzy picture that characterizes sustainability in the building sector at present while framing the research in the context of existing policies and programming. The main objective lies in the approach of a methodology for the assessment of the environmental impacts associated with the life cycle of building, applicable to the Spanish context, as one of the three dimensions that constitute the pillars of sustainability. The areas of assessment of social and economic issues, for which there is currently a degree of methodological definition consistent enough, are further examined, in order to provide a holistic view of the assessment. The description of the basic features and limitations of the methodology of Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) are previously addressed, later proceeding to deepen the state of the art of LCA applied to the building sector, conducting a critical review of the research works that have been developed in recent years. This review allows to establish conclusions about the degree of consistency with the future regulatory environment and to identify two priority needs for action: - The need for harmonization, given the strong methodological inconsistencies detected that prevent the comparison of results obtained in assessment works. - The need for simplification, given the inherent complexity of the assessment, so that, while maintaining the utmost rigor, make the practical application feasible in the Spanish context. The participation in the work of policy development at European level has helped to achieve a critical view of the methodological implications of the rules under debate, identifying the roadmap that will mark the European scene in the coming years. The definition of the proposed methodology integrates the general principles of LCA methodology with the protocol established in the European standard, also considering the regulatory standards to construction practices in the Spanish context. In the proposed approach, possible simplifications applicable have been analyzed, in order to make its implementation possible, focusing efforts in systematizing the functional equivalent concept, establishing recommendations on the type of data based on their availability and critical review of the calculation models of environmental impacts. The methodological implications of the proposal are described through a series of case studies, which illustrate the feasibility and the basic characteristics of its application. Finally, the main aspects related to future prospects, research lines and lines of action that have been identified as priorities are outlined.

Water scarcity and climate change impact and vulnerability in irrigated agriculture in Mediterranean river basins

Actualmente, la escasez de agua constituye un importante problema en muchos lugares del mundo. El crecimiento de la población, la creciente necesidad de alimentos, el desarrollo socio-económico y el cambio climático ejercen una importante y cada vez mayor presión sobre los recursos hídricos, a la que muchos países van a tener que enfrentarse en los próximos anos. La región Mediterránea es una de las regiones del mundo de mayor escasez de recursos hídricos, y es además una de las zonas más vulnerables al cambio climático. La mayoría de estudios sobre cambio climático prevén mayores temperaturas y una disminución de las precipitaciones, y una creciente escasez de agua debida a la disminución de recursos disponibles y al aumento de las demandas de riego. En el contexto actual de desarrollo de políticas se demanda cada vez más una mayor consideración del cambio climático en el marco de las políticas sectoriales. Sin embargo, los estudios enfocados a un solo sector no reflejan las múltiples dimensiones del los efectos del cambio climático. Numerosos estudios científicos han demostrado que el cambio climático es un fenómeno de naturaleza multi-dimensional y cuyos efectos se transmiten a múltiples escalas. Por tanto, es necesaria la producción de estudios y herramientas de análisis capaces de reflejar todas estas dimensiones y que contribuyan a la elaboración de políticas robustas en un contexto de cambio climático. Esta investigación pretende aportar una visión global de la problemática de la escasez de agua y los impactos, la vulnerabilidad y la adaptación al cambio climático en el contexto de la región mediterránea. La investigación presenta un marco integrado de modelización que se va ampliando progresivamente en un proceso secuencial y multi-escalar en el que en cada etapa se incorpora una nueva dimensión. La investigación consta de cuatro etapas que se abordan a lo largo de cuatro capítulos. En primer lugar, se estudia la vulnerabilidad económica de las explotaciones de regadío del Medio Guadiana, en España. Para ello, se utiliza un modelo de programación matemática en combinación con un modelo econométrico. A continuación, en la segunda etapa, se utiliza un modelo hidro-económico que incluye un modelo de cultivo para analizar los procesos que tienen lugar a escala de cultivo, explotación y cuenca teniendo en cuenta distintas escalas geográficas y de toma de decisiones. Esta herramienta permite el análisis de escenarios de cambio climático y la evaluación de posibles medidas de adaptación. La tercera fase consiste en el análisis de las barreras que dificultan la aplicación de procesos de adaptación para lo cual se analizan las redes socio-institucionales en la cuenca. Finalmente, la cuarta etapa aporta una visión sobre la escasez de agua y el cambio climático a escala nacional y regional mediante el estudio de distintos escenarios de futuro plausibles y los posibles efectos de las políticas en la escasez de agua. Para este análisis se utiliza un modelo econométrico de datos de panel para la región mediterránea y un modelo hidro-económico que se aplica a los casos de estudio de España y Jordania. Los resultados del estudio ponen de relieve la importancia de considerar múltiples escalas y múltiples dimensiones en el estudio de la gestión de los recursos hídricos y la adaptación al cambio climático en los contextos mediterráneos de escasez de agua estudiados. Los resultados muestran que los impactos del cambio climático en la cuenca del Guadiana y en el conjunto de España pueden comprometer la sostenibilidad del regadío y de los ecosistemas. El análisis a escala de cuenca hidrográfica resalta la importancia de las interacciones entre los distintos usuarios del agua y en concreto entre distintas comunidades de regantes, así como la necesidad de fortalecer el papel de las instituciones y de fomentar la creación de una visión común en la cuenca para facilitar la aplicación de los procesos de adaptación. Asimismo, los resultados de este trabajo evidencian también la capacidad y el papel fundamental de las políticas para lograr un desarrollo sostenible y la adaptación al cambio climático es regiones de escasez de agua tales como la región mediterránea. Especialmente, este trabajo pone de manifiesto el potencial de la Directiva Marco del Agua de la Unión Europea para lograr una efectiva adaptación al cambio climático. Sin embargo, en Jordania, además de la adaptación al cambio climático, es preciso diseñar estrategias de desarrollo sostenible más ambiciosas que contribuyan a reducir el riesgo futuro de escasez de agua. ABSTRACT Water scarcity is becoming a major concern in many parts of the world. Population growth, increasing needs for food production, socio-economic development and climate change represent pressures on water resources that many countries around the world will have to deal in the coming years. The Mediterranean region is one of the most water scarce regions of the world and is considered a climate change hotspot. Most projections of climate change envisage an increase in temperatures and a decrease in precipitation and a resulting reduction in water resources availability as a consequence of both reduced water availability and increased irrigation demands. Current policy development processes require the integration of climate change concerns into sectoral policies. However, sector-oriented studies often fail to address all the dimensions of climate change implications. Climate change research in the last years has evidenced the need for more integrated studies and methodologies that are capable of addressing the multi-scale and multi-dimensional nature of climate change. This research attempts to provide a comprehensive view of water scarcity and climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation in Mediterranean contexts. It presents an integrated modelling framework that is progressively enlarged in a sequential multi-scale process in which a new dimension of climate change and water resources is addressed at every stage. It is comprised of four stages, each one explained in a different chapter. The first stage explores farm-level economic vulnerability in the Spanish Guadiana basin using a mathematical programming model in combination with an econometric model. Then, in a second stage, the use of a hydro-economic modelling framework that includes a crop growth model allows for the analysis of crop, farm and basin level processes taking into account different geographical and decision-making scales. This integrated tool is used for the analysis of climate change scenarios and for the assessment of potential adaptation options. The third stage includes the analysis of barriers to the effective implementation of adaptation processes based on socioinstitutional network analysis. Finally, a regional and country level perspective of water scarcity and climate change is provided focusing on different possible socio-economic development pathways and the effect of policies on future water scarcity. For this analysis, a panel-data econometric model and a hydro-economic model are applied for the analysis of the Mediterranean region and country level case studies in Spain and Jordan. The overall results of the study demonstrate the value of considering multiple scales and multiple dimensions in water management and climate change adaptation in the Mediterranean water scarce contexts analysed. Results show that climate change impacts in the Guadiana basin and in Spain may compromise the sustainability of irrigation systems and ecosystems. The analysis at the basin level highlights the prominent role of interactions between different water users and irrigation districts and the need to strengthen institutional capacity and common understanding in the basin to enhance the implementation of adaptation processes. The results of this research also illustrate the relevance of water policies in achieving sustainable development and climate change adaptation in water scarce areas such as the Mediterranean region. Specifically, the EU Water Framework Directive emerges as a powerful trigger for climate change adaptation. However, in Jordan, outreaching sustainable development strategies are required in addition to climate change adaptation to reduce future risk of water scarcity.