940 resultados para perfect hedging
Resumo:
The evolution of the laptop computer as a musical instrument in the 1990s provided a tool for empowering the solo musician and divergent approaches to the application of this technology in performance remain consistently debated. The increasing ubiquity of digital media combined with the power of current generation notebook technology has provided the perfect platform to realise integrated audio-visual toolsets that respond to musical controllers and provide mixed-media results. Despite emerging practitioners increasingly availing themselves to the musical affordances of this technology, theoretical discussion in the field ignores the various approaches a solo musician might take in developing integrated media works for performance. In an increasingly crowded niche there is a clear compulsion to consider expanded modes of performance, yet lacking any formal framework these integrations can easily alienate an audience, distract from performance and lead to criticisms of novelty for novelty's sake.
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Background: Reducing rates of healthcare acquired infection has been identified by the Australian Commission on Safety and Quality in Health Care as a national priority. One of the goals is the prevention of central venous catheter-related bloodstream infection (CR-BSI). At least 3,500 cases of CR-BSI occur annually in Australian hospitals, resulting in unnecessary deaths and costs to the healthcare system between $25.7 and $95.3 million. Two approaches to preventing these infections have been proposed: use of antimicrobial catheters (A-CVCs); or a catheter care and management ‘bundle’. Given finite healthcare budgets, decisions about the optimal infection control policy require consideration of the effectiveness and value for money of each approach. Objectives: The aim of this research is to use a rational economic framework to inform efficient infection control policy relating to the prevention of CR-BSI in the intensive care unit. It addresses three questions relating to decision-making in this area: 1. Is additional investment in activities aimed at preventing CR-BSI an efficient use of healthcare resources? 2. What is the optimal infection control strategy from amongst the two major approaches that have been proposed to prevent CR-BSI? 3. What uncertainty is there in this decision and can a research agenda to improve decision-making in this area be identified? Methods: A decision analytic model-based economic evaluation was undertaken to identify an efficient approach to preventing CR-BSI in Queensland Health intensive care units. A Markov model was developed in conjunction with a panel of clinical experts which described the epidemiology and prognosis of CR-BSI. The model was parameterised using data systematically identified from the published literature and extracted from routine databases. The quality of data used in the model and its validity to clinical experts and sensitivity to modelling assumptions was assessed. Two separate economic evaluations were conducted. The first evaluation compared all commercially available A-CVCs alongside uncoated catheters to identify which was cost-effective for routine use. The uncertainty in this decision was estimated along with the value of collecting further information to inform the decision. The second evaluation compared the use of A-CVCs to a catheter care bundle. We were unable to estimate the cost of the bundle because it is unclear what the full resource requirements are for its implementation, and what the value of these would be in an Australian context. As such we undertook a threshold analysis to identify the cost and effectiveness thresholds at which a hypothetical bundle would dominate the use of A-CVCs under various clinical scenarios. Results: In the first evaluation of A-CVCs, the findings from the baseline analysis, in which uncertainty is not considered, show that the use of any of the four A-CVCs will result in health gains accompanied by cost-savings. The MR catheters dominate the baseline analysis generating 1.64 QALYs and cost-savings of $130,289 per 1.000 catheters. With uncertainty, and based on current information, the MR catheters remain the optimal decision and return the highest average net monetary benefits ($948 per catheter) relative to all other catheter types. This conclusion was robust to all scenarios tested, however, the probability of error in this conclusion is high, 62% in the baseline scenario. Using a value of $40,000 per QALY, the expected value of perfect information associated with this decision is $7.3 million. An analysis of the expected value of perfect information for individual parameters suggests that it may be worthwhile for future research to focus on providing better estimates of the mortality attributable to CR-BSI and the effectiveness of both SPC and CH/SSD (int/ext) catheters. In the second evaluation of the catheter care bundle relative to A-CVCs, the results which do not consider uncertainty indicate that a bundle must achieve a relative risk of CR-BSI of at least 0.45 to be cost-effective relative to MR catheters. If the bundle can reduce rates of infection from 2.5% to effectively zero, it is cost-effective relative to MR catheters if national implementation costs are less than $2.6 million ($56,610 per ICU). If the bundle can achieve a relative risk of 0.34 (comparable to that reported in the literature) it is cost-effective, relative to MR catheters, if costs over an 18 month period are below $613,795 nationally ($13,343 per ICU). Once uncertainty in the decision is considered, the cost threshold for the bundle increases to $2.2 million. Therefore, if each of the 46 Level III ICUs could implement an 18 month catheter care bundle for less than $47,826 each, this approach would be cost effective relative to A-CVCs. However, the uncertainty is substantial and the probability of error in concluding that the bundle is the cost-effective approach at a cost of $2.2 million is 89%. Conclusions: This work highlights that infection control to prevent CR-BSI is an efficient use of healthcare resources in the Australian context. If there is no further investment in infection control, an opportunity cost is incurred, which is the potential for a more efficient healthcare system. Minocycline/rifampicin catheters are the optimal choice of antimicrobial catheter for routine use in Australian Level III ICUs, however, if a catheter care bundle implemented in Australia was as effective as those used in the large studies in the United States it would be preferred over the catheters if it was able to be implemented for less than $47,826 per Level III ICU. Uncertainty is very high in this decision and arises from multiple sources. There are likely greater costs to this uncertainty for A-CVCs, which may carry hidden costs, than there are for a catheter care bundle, which is more likely to provide indirect benefits to clinical practice and patient safety. Research into the mortality attributable to CR-BSI, the effectiveness of SPC and CH/SSD (int/ext) catheters and the cost and effectiveness of a catheter care bundle in Australia should be prioritised to reduce uncertainty in this decision. This thesis provides the economic evidence to inform one area of infection control, but there are many other infection control decisions for which information about the cost-effectiveness of competing interventions does not exist. This work highlights some of the challenges and benefits to generating and using economic evidence for infection control decision-making and provides support for commissioning more research into the cost-effectiveness of infection control.
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‘Practice makes perfect’ expresses the common misconception that repetitive practice without appropriate feed-back will deliver improvement in tasks being practised. This paper explores the implementation of a student-driven feed-back mechanism and shows how functional and aesthetic understanding can be progressively enhanced through reflective practice. More efficient practice of clearly understood tasks will enhance dance training outcomes. We were looking for ways to improve teaching efficiency, effectiveness of the students’ practice in the studio and application of safe dance practices. We devised a web-based on-line format, ‘Performing Reflective Practice’, designed to augment and refine studio practice. Only perfect practice makes perfect!
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This paper analyzes the common factor structure of US, German, and Japanese Government bond returns. Unlike previous studies, we formally take into account the presence of country-specific factors when estimating common factors. We show that the classical approach of running a principal component analysis on a multi-country dataset of bond returns captures both local and common influences and therefore tends to pick too many factors. We conclude that US bond returns share only one common factor with German and Japanese bond returns. This single common factor is associated most notably with changes in the level of domestic term structures. We show that accounting for country-specific factors improves the performance of domestic and international hedging strategies.
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New air traffic automated separation management concepts are constantly under investigation. Yet most of the automated separation management algorithms proposed over the last few decades have assumed either perfect communication or exact knowledge of all aircraft locations. In realistic environments, these idealized assumptions are not valid and any communication failure can potentially lead to disastrous outcomes. This paper examines the separation performance behavior of several popular algorithms during periods of information loss. This comparison is done through simulation studies. These simulation studies suggest that communication failure can cause the performance of these separation management algorithms to degrade significantly. This paper also describes some preliminary flight tests.
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When the supply voltages are balanced and sinusoidal, load compensation can give both unity power factor (UPF) and perfect harmonic cancellation (PHC) source currents. But under distorted supply voltages, achieving both UPF and PHC currents are not possible and contradictory to each other. Hence there should be an optimal performance between these two important compensation goals. This paper presents an optimal control algorithm for load compensation under unbalanced and distorted supply voltages. In this algorithm source currents are compensated for reactive, imbalance components and harmonic distortions set by the limits. By satisfying the harmonic distortion limits and power balance, this algorithm gives the source currents which will provide the maximum achievable power factor. The detailed simulation results using MATLAB are presented to support the performance of the proposed optimal control algorithm.
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The demand for high quality rail services in the twenty-first century has put an ever increasing demand on all rail operators. In order to meet the expectation of their patrons, the maintenance regime of railway systems has to be tightened up, the track conditions have to be well looked after, the rolling stock must be designed to withstand heavy duty. In short, in an ideal world where resources are unlimited, one needs to implement a very rigorous inspection regime in order to take care of the modem needs of a railway system [1]. If cost were not an issue, the maintenance engineers could inspect the train body by the most up-to-date techniques such as ultra-sound examination, x-ray inspection, magnetic particle inspection, etc. on a regular basis. However it is inconceivable to have such a perfect maintenance regime in any commercial railway. Likewise, it is impossible to have a perfect rolling stock which can weather all the heavy duties experienced in a modem railway. Hence it is essential that some condition monitoring schemes are devised to pick up potential defects which could manifest into safety hazards. This paper introduces an innovative condition monitoring system for track profile and, together with an instrumented car to carry out surveillance of the track, will provide a comprehensive railway condition monitoring system which is free from the usual difficulty of electromagnetic compatibility issues in a typical railway environment
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In line with accepted decision making theory, individuals engage in rational decision making. Decisions made under conditions of bounded rationality may have serious adverse consequences. Employees making decisions on behalf of their employer are often faced with situations where perfect and complete information is not available, and time is limited. Under such conditions, we posit that employees will make decisions that are increasingly bounded. At its most extreme neither time nor information is available to make a decision and rational decision making, bounded or not, reaches its limits. Many authors suggest that this is the point at which improvisation takes place. Although opinion in the literature is mixed regarding the efficacy of improvised decisions, we argue that improvised decisions place the organisation at considerable risk and as a consequence are undesirable.
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While unlicensed driving does not play a direct causative role in road crashes, it represents a major problem for road safety. A particular subgroup of concern is those offenders who continue to drive after having their licence disqualified for drink driving. Surveys of disqualified drivers suggest that driving among this group is relatively common. Method This paper reports findings from an analysis of the driving records of over 545,000 Queensland drivers who experienced a licence sanction between January 2003 and December 2008. The sample included drivers who were disqualified by a court (e.g., for drink driving); those who licence had been suspended administratively (e.g., for accumulation of demerit points); and those who were placed on a restricted licence. Results Overall, 95,461 of the drivers in the sample were disqualified from driving for a drink driving offence. During the period, these drivers were issued with a total of 2,644,619 traffic infringements with approximately 12% (n = 8, 095) convicted of a further drink driving offence while disqualified. Other traffic offences detected during this period including unlicensed driving (18%), driving an unregistered vehicle (27%), speeding (21%), dangerous driving (36%), mobile phone use (35%), non-restraint use (32%), and other moving violation (23%). Offending behaviour was more common among men than women. Conclusions While licence disqualification has previously been shown to be a relatively effective sanction for managing the behaviour of drink driving offenders, the results of the current study highlight that it is a far from perfect tool since many offenders continue to commit both drink driving and other traffic offences while disqualified. As such, this study highlights the ongoing need to enhance the detection of disqualified and unlicensed driving in order to deter this behaviour.
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The screenplay, “Perfect Blood” (Frank and Stein), is the first two-hour episode of a two-part television miniseries Frank and Stein. This creative work is a science fiction story that speculates on the future of Western nations in a world where petroleum is scarce. A major theme that has been explored in the miniseries is the tension between the advantages and dangers of scientific progress without regard to human consequences. “Perfect Blood” (Frank and Stein) was written as part of my personal creative journey, which has been the transformation from research scientist to creative writer. In the exegetical component of this thesis, I propose that a key challenge for any scientist writing science fiction is the shift from conducting empirical research in a laboratory-based situation to engaging in creative practice research. During my personal creative journey, I found that a predominant difficulty in conducting research within a creative practice-led paradigm was unleashing my creativity and personal viewpoint, practices that are frowned upon in scientific research. The aim of the exegesis is to demonstrate that the transformative process from science to art is not neat and well-structured. My personal creative journey was fraught with many ‘wrong’ turns. However, after reflecting on the experience, I realise that every varied piece of research that I undertook allowed me to progress to the next stage, the next draft of Frank and Stein. And via the disorder of the creative process, a screenplay finally emerged that was both structured and creative, which are equally essential elements in screenwriting.
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Cellular response to radiation damage is made by a complex network of pathways and feedback loops whose spatiotemporal organisation is still unclear despite its decisive role in determining the fate of the damaged cell. Revealing the dynamic sequence of the repair proteins is therefore critical in understanding how the DNA repair mechanisms work. There are also still open questions regarding the possible movement of damaged chromatin domains and its role as trigger for lesion recognition and signalling in the DNA repair context. The single-cell approach and the high spatial resolution offered by microbeams provide the perfect tool to study and quantify the dynamic processes associated with the induction and repair of DNA damage. We have followed the development of radiation-induced foci for three DNA damage markers (i.e. γ-H2AX, 53BP1 and hSSB1) using normal fibroblasts (AG01522), human breast adenocarcinoma cells (MCF7) and human fibrosarcoma cells (HT1080) stably transfected with yellow fluorescent protein fusion proteins following irradiation with the QUB X-ray microbeam (carbon X-rays <2 µm spot). The size and intensity of the foci has been analysed as a function of dose and time post-irradiation to investigate the dynamics of the above-mentioned DNA repair processes and monitor the remodelling of chromatin structure that the cell undergoes to deal with DNA damage.
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Based on the embedded atom method (EAM) and molecular dynamics (MD) method, the deformation properties of Cu nanowires with different single defects under dynamic compression have been studied. The mechanical behaviours of the perfect nanowire are first studied, and the critical stress decreases with the increase of the nanowire’s length, which is well agreed with the modified Euler theory. We then consider the effects to the buckling phenomenon resulted from different defects. It is found that obvious decrease of the critical stress is resulted from different defects, and the largest decrease is found in nanowire with the surface vertical defect. Surface defects are found exerting larger influence than internal defects. The buckling duration is found shortened due to different defects except the nanowire with surface horizon defect, which is also found possessing the largest deflection. Different deflections are also observed for different defected nanowires. It is find that due to surface defects, only deflection in one direction is happened, but for internal defects, more complex deflection circumstances are observed.
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In this paper we extend the concept of speaker annotation within a single-recording, or speaker diarization, to a collection wide approach we call speaker attribution. Accordingly, speaker attribution is the task of clustering expectantly homogenous intersession clusters obtained using diarization according to common cross-recording identities. The result of attribution is a collection of spoken audio across multiple recordings attributed to speaker identities. In this paper, an attribution system is proposed using mean-only MAP adaptation of a combined-gender UBM to model clusters from a perfect diarization system, as well as a JFA-based system with session variability compensation. The normalized cross-likelihood ratio is calculated for each pair of clusters to construct an attribution matrix and the complete linkage algorithm is employed to conduct clustering of the inter-session clusters. A matched cluster purity and coverage of 87.1% was obtained on the NIST 2008 SRE corpus.
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It is well known that track defects cause profound effects to the dynamics of railway wagons; normally such problems are examined for cases of wagons running at a constant speed. Brake/traction torques affect the speed profile due to the wheel–rail contact characteristics but most of the wagon–track interaction models do not explicitly consider them in simulation. The authors have recently published a model for the dynamics of wagons subject to braking traction torques on a perfect track by explicitly considering the pitch degree of freedom for wheelsets. The model is extended for cases of lateral and vertical track geometry defects and worn railhead and wheel profiles. This paper presents the results of the analyses carried out using the model extended to the dynamics of wagons containing less ideal wheel profiles running on tracks with geometry defects and worn rails.