Coopetition as a lead generating mechanism: design, modelling and simulation

The aim of this research is to develop a tool that could allow to organize coopetitional relationships between organizations on the basis of two-sided Internet platform. The main result of current master thesis is a detailed description of the concept of the lead generating internet platform-based coopetition. With the tools of agent-based modelling and simulation, there were obtained results that could be used as a base for suggestion that the developed concept is able to cause a positive effect on some particular industries (e.g. web-design studios market) and potentially can bring some benefits and extra profitability for most companies that operate on this particular industry. Also on the basis of the results it can be assumed that the developed instrument is also able to increase the degree of transparency of the market to which it is applied.

De lo micro a lo macro prudencial: Un análisis de la supervisión bancaria desde la econometría espacial

La crisis que se desató en el mercado hipotecario en Estados Unidos en 2008 y que logró propagarse a lo largo de todo sistema financiero, dejó en evidencia el nivel de interconexión que actualmente existe entre las entidades del sector y sus relaciones con el sector productivo, dejando en evidencia la necesidad de identificar y caracterizar el riesgo sistémico inherente al sistema, para que de esta forma las entidades reguladoras busquen una estabilidad tanto individual, como del sistema en general. El presente documento muestra, a través de un modelo que combina el poder informativo de las redes y su adecuación a un modelo espacial auto regresivo (tipo panel), la importancia de incorporar al enfoque micro-prudencial (propuesto en Basilea II), una variable que capture el efecto de estar conectado con otras entidades, realizando así un análisis macro-prudencial (propuesto en Basilea III).

Estado situacional de los modelos basados en agentes y su impacto en la investigación organizacional

En un mundo hiperconectado, dinámico y cargado de incertidumbre como el actual, los métodos y modelos analíticos convencionales están mostrando sus limitaciones. Las organizaciones requieren, por tanto, herramientas útiles que empleen tecnología de información y modelos de simulación computacional como mecanismos para la toma de decisiones y la resolución de problemas. Una de las más recientes, potentes y prometedoras es el modelamiento y la simulación basados en agentes (MSBA). Muchas organizaciones, incluidas empresas consultoras, emplean esta técnica para comprender fenómenos, hacer evaluación de estrategias y resolver problemas de diversa índole. Pese a ello, no existe (hasta donde conocemos) un estado situacional acerca del MSBA y su aplicación a la investigación organizacional. Cabe anotar, además, que por su novedad no es un tema suficientemente difundido y trabajado en Latinoamérica. En consecuencia, este proyecto pretende elaborar un estado situacional sobre el MSBA y su impacto sobre la investigación organizacional.

Evaluación de la Efectividad del Restaurante-Bar El Molino en el Campo de Percepción de Marca Usando un Sistema de Simulación Basado en Agentes

El siguiente trabajo, a partir de la identificación de los diferentes sujetos que participan en el medio ambiente donde se desenvuelve el restaurante El Molino, busca determinar cuáles podrían ser las estrategias de mercadeo más efectivas para que la imagen, concepto y servicio del restaurante, la marca en general, resulte lo más atractivas posibles para los segmentos objetivo de la empresa. Dadas las circunstancias de que es un negocio reciente, no existen datos históricos de la imagen que proyecta la marca hacia sus clientes, por lo tanto la información a partir de la cual se pretenden generar alternativas para que la marca influencie a los clientes de la manera deseada será conseguida a partir de una simulación que será obtenida de un modelo basado en agentes. Con esto lo que se busca es poder parametrizar en qué aspectos y de qué forma la empresa debe invertir para que la forma en que los clientes perciben la marca sea la deseada por el restaurante.

Caracterización del comportamiento emprendedor de los estudiantes de jurisprudencia de la Universidad del Rosario

Hoy en día, el emprendimiento se ha convertido en uno de los factores esenciales para promover el desarrollo y fomentar la evolución de la sociedad a nivel mundial. Enfocándonos en Colombia y más específicamente en una población delimitada, el centro de emprendimiento de la Universidad del Rosario desarrolló un estudio que permitiera medir la caracterización del perfil emprendedor de sus estudiantes, éste con el objetivo de identificar diferentes variables que inciden en el entorno de los estudiantes al momento de edificar su perfil emprendedor. Por lo anterior, esta investigación se centró en realizar un análisis de la caracterización del comportamiento del perfil emprendedor de los estudiantes de Pregrado de la Facultad de Jurisprudencia de la Universidad del Rosario, la cual permitió comprender un perfil mucho más detallado a la luz de variables identificables. Para su desarrollo, se utilizó la herramienta homologada a nivel internacional conocida como "Características del Comportamiento Emprendedor" o CCE de EMPRETEC basándose en la teoría de McClelland donde se observaron los factores motivacionales que se asocian directamente al comportamiento emprendedor. La metodología usada permitió caracterizar el comportamiento de los estudiantes de la facultad de Jurisprudencia de 1° a 10° semestre mediante la evaluación de 10 factores asociados a necesidades de logro, poder y afiliación.

Landscape structure mediates the effects of a stressor on field vole populations

Spatio-temporal landscape heterogeneity has rarely been considered in population-level impact assessments. Here we test whether landscape heterogeneity is important by examining the case of a pesticide applied seasonally to orchards which may affect non-target vole populations, using a validated ecologically realistic and spatially explicit agent-based model. Voles thrive in unmanaged grasslands and untreated orchards but are particularly exposed to applied pesticide treatments during dispersal between optimal habitats. We therefore hypothesised that vole populations do better (1) in landscapes containing more grassland and (2) where areas of grassland are closer to orchards, but (3) do worse if larger areas of orchards are treated with pesticide. To test these hyposeses we made appropriate manipulations to a model landscape occupied by field voles. Pesticide application reduced model population sizes in all three experiments, but populations subsequently wholly or partly recovered. Population depressions were, as predicted, lower in landscapes containing more unmanaged grassland, in landscapes with reduced distance between grassland and orchards, and in landscapes with fewer treated orchards. Population recovery followed a similar pattern except for an unexpected improvement in recovery when the area of treated orchards was increased. Outside the period of pesticide application, orchards increase landscape connectivity and facilitate vole dispersal and so speed population recovery. Overall our results show that accurate prediction of population impact cannot be achieved without taking account of landscape structure. The specifics of landscape structure and habitat connectivity are likely always important in mediating the effects of stressors.

Long term individual load forecast under different electrical vehicles uptake scenarios

More and more households are purchasing electric vehicles (EVs), and this will continue as we move towards a low carbon future. There are various projections as to the rate of EV uptake, but all predict an increase over the next ten years. Charging these EVs will produce one of the biggest loads on the low voltage network. To manage the network, we must not only take into account the number of EVs taken up, but where on the network they are charging, and at what time. To simulate the impact on the network from high, medium and low EV uptake (as outlined by the UK government), we present an agent-based model. We initialise the model to assign an EV to a household based on either random distribution or social influences - that is, a neighbour of an EV owner is more likely to also purchase an EV. Additionally, we examine the effect of peak behaviour on the network when charging is at day-time, night-time, or a mix of both. The model is implemented on a neighbourhood in south-east England using smart meter data (half hourly electricity readings) and real life charging patterns from an EV trial. Our results indicate that social influence can increase the peak demand on a local level (street or feeder), meaning that medium EV uptake can create higher peak demand than currently expected.

In the mood: the dynamics of collective sentiments on Twitter

We study the relationship between the sentiment levels of Twitter users and the evolving network structure that the users created by @-mentioning each other. We use a large dataset of tweets to which we apply three sentiment scoring algorithms, including the open source SentiStrength program. Specifically we make three contributions. Firstly we find that people who have potentially the largest communication reach (according to a dynamic centrality measure) use sentiment differently than the average user: for example they use positive sentiment more often and negative sentiment less often. Secondly we find that when we follow structurally stable Twitter communities over a period of months, their sentiment levels are also stable, and sudden changes in community sentiment from one day to the next can in most cases be traced to external events affecting the community. Thirdly, based on our findings, we create and calibrate a simple agent-based model that is capable of reproducing measures of emotive response comparable to those obtained from our empirical dataset.

Redes sociais e a lógica do desvio comportamental em relação às normas de trabalho

This paper aim to check a hypothesis that assumes several behaviors related to social work norm´s obeying as a phenomenon that can be explained by actor´s social network structure and the rational choice processes related to the social norm inside that network, principally the payoff´s analysis received by the closest actors, or neighbors, at a social situation. Taking the sociological paradigm of rational action theory as a basis, the focus is on a debate about the logic of social norms, from Émile Durkheim´s method to Jon Elster´s theory, but also including social network analysis´s variables according to Robert Hanneman; and also Vilfredo Pareto´s constants related to human sociability, at the aim to detect elements that can help the scholars to develop an agent based model which could explain the sociological problem of deviance by a better way than the common sense´s view about morality and ethics at a social work environment

Jogo da Minoria: um modelo baseado em agentes aplicado ao mercado financeiro

Nos últimos anos houve uma contribuição significativa dos físicos para a construção de um tipo de modelo baseado em agentes que busca reproduzir, em simulação computacional, o comportamento do mercado financeiro. Esse modelo, chamado Jogo da Minoria consiste de um grupo de agentes que vão ao mercado comprar ou vender ativos. Eles tomam decisões com base em estratégias e, por meio delas, os agentes estabelecem um intrincado jogo de competição e coordenação pela distribuição da riqueza. O modelo tem demonstrado resultados bastante ricos e surpreendentes, tanto na dinâmica do sistema como na capacidade de reproduzir características estatísticas e comportamentais do mercado financeiro. Neste artigo, são apresentadas a estrutura e a dinâmica do Jogo da Minoria, bem como as contribuições recentes relacionadas ao Jogo da Minoria denominado de Grande Canônico, que é um modelo mais bem ajustado às características do mercado financeiro e reproduz as regularidades estatísticas do preço dos ativos chamadas fatos estilizados.

Spatial electric load forecasting using a local movement approach

An agent based model for spatial electric load forecasting using a local movement approach for the spatiotemporal allocation of the new loads in the service zone is presented. The density of electrical load for each of the major consumer classes in each sub-zone is used as the current state of the agents. The spatial growth is simulated with a walking agent who starts his path in one of the activity centers of the city and goes to the limits of the city following a radial path depending on the different load levels. A series of update rules are established to simulate the S growth behavior and the complementarity between classes. The results are presented in future load density maps. The tests in a real system from a mid-size city show a high rate of success when compared with other techniques. The most important features of this methodology are the need for few data and the simplicity of the algorithm, allowing for future scalability. © 2009 IEEE.

Multi-level models and infrastructures for simulating biological system development

The hierarchical organisation of biological systems plays a crucial role in the pattern formation of gene expression resulting from the morphogenetic processes, where autonomous internal dynamics of cells, as well as cell-to-cell interactions through membranes, are responsible for the emergent peculiar structures of the individual phenotype. Being able to reproduce the systems dynamics at different levels of such a hierarchy might be very useful for studying such a complex phenomenon of self-organisation. The idea is to model the phenomenon in terms of a large and dynamic network of compartments, where the interplay between inter-compartment and intra-compartment events determines the emergent behaviour resulting in the formation of spatial patterns. According to these premises the thesis proposes a review of the different approaches already developed in modelling developmental biology problems, as well as the main models and infrastructures available in literature for modelling biological systems, analysing their capabilities in tackling multi-compartment / multi-level models. The thesis then introduces a practical framework, MS-BioNET, for modelling and simulating these scenarios exploiting the potential of multi-level dynamics. This is based on (i) a computational model featuring networks of compartments and an enhanced model of chemical reaction addressing molecule transfer, (ii) a logic-oriented language to flexibly specify complex simulation scenarios, and (iii) a simulation engine based on the many-species/many-channels optimised version of Gillespie’s direct method. The thesis finally proposes the adoption of the agent-based model as an approach capable of capture multi-level dynamics. To overcome the problem of parameter tuning in the model, the simulators are supplied with a module for parameter optimisation. The task is defined as an optimisation problem over the parameter space in which the objective function to be minimised is the distance between the output of the simulator and a target one. The problem is tackled with a metaheuristic algorithm. As an example of application of the MS-BioNET framework and of the agent-based model, a model of the first stages of Drosophila Melanogaster development is realised. The model goal is to generate the early spatial pattern of gap gene expression. The correctness of the models is shown comparing the simulation results with real data of gene expression with spatial and temporal resolution, acquired in free on-line sources.

Desenvolvimento de um modelo baseado em agentes para investigar a conformação e evolução de padrões populacionais de atividade física no lazer em adultos

Introdução: Grande parte das ações para promover a atividade física no lazer em populações tem apresentado tamanhos de efeito pequenos ou inexistentes, ou resultados inconsistentes. Abordar o problema a partir da perspectiva sistêmica pode ser uma das formas de superar esse descompasso. Objetivo: Desenvolver um modelo baseado em agentes para investigar a conformação e evolução de padrões populacionais de atividade física no lazer em adultos a partir da interação entre atributos psicológicos dos indivíduos e atributos dos ambientes físico construído e social em que vivem. Métodos: O processo de modelagem foi composto por três etapas: elaboração de um mapa conceitual, com base em revisão da literatura e consulta com especialistas; criação e verificação do algoritmo do modelo; e parametrização e análise de consistência e sensibilidade. Os resultados da revisão da literatura foram consolidados e relatados de acordo com os domínios da busca (aspectos psicológicos, ambiente social e ambiente físico construído). Os resultados quantitativos da consulta com os especialistas foram descritos por meio de frequências e o conteúdo das respostas questões abertas foi analisado e compilado pelo autor desta tese. O algoritmo do modelo foi criado no software NetLogo, versão 5.2.1., seguindo-se um protocolo de verificação para garantir que o algoritmo fosse implementado acuradamente. Nas análises de consistência e sensibilidade, utilizaram-se o Teste A de Vargha-Delaney, coeficiente de correlação de postos parcial, boxplots e gráficos de linha e de dispersão. Resultados: Definiram-se como elementos do mapa conceitual a intenção da pessoa, o comportamento de pessoas próximas e da comunidade, e a percepção da qualidade, do acesso e das atividades disponíveis nos locais em que atividade física no lazer pode ser praticada. O modelo representa uma comunidade hipotética contendo dois tipos de agentes: pessoas e locais em que atividade física no lazer pode ser praticada. As pessoas interagem entre si e com o ambiente construído, gerando tendências temporais populacionais de prática de atividade física no lazer e de intenção. As análises de sensibilidade indicaram que as tendências temporais de atividade física no lazer e de intenção são altamente sensíveis à influência do comportamento atual da pessoa sobre a sua intenção futura, ao tamanho do raio de percepção da pessoa e à proporção de locais em que a atividade física no lazer pode ser praticada. Considerações finais: O mapa conceitual e o modelo baseado em agentes se mostraram adequados para investigar a conformação e evolução de padrões populacionais de atividade física no lazer em adultos. A influência do comportamento da pessoa sobre a sua intenção, o tamanho do raio de percepção da pessoa e a proporção de locais em que a atividade física no lazer pode ser praticada são importantes determinantes da conformação e evolução dos padrões populacionais de atividade física no lazer entre adultos no modelo.

Simulation Results of AgriPoliS about Diminishing Capital Subsidies and Restrictions. Factor Markets Working Document No. 55, June 2013

This paper investigates the impacts of high interest rates for borrowed capital and credit restrictions on the structural development of four European regions. The method used is the model AgriPoliS which is a spatial-dynamic agent-based model. It is able to provide aggregated results at the regional level, but very individual results as well by considering farms as independent entities. Farms can choose between different investment options during the simulation. Several scenarios with different interest rates for borrowed capital on the one hand as well as with different levels of credit restrictions on the other hand are tested and compared. Results show that higher interest rates have less impact on declining production branches than on expanding ones. If they have the possibility farms invest in the most profitable production branch which relative profitability might have changed with high interest rates. Credit restrictions lead farms to choose smaller and cheaper investments than expensive and large ones. Results also show that income losses in both cases due to under-investment compared to the reference situation are partially compensated by lower rental prices. The impacts on structural change also differ depending on the region and the initial situation. In summary, credit subsidies or imperfections on credit markets might have indirect impacts on the type of dominant investment and therefore on the whole regional agricultural sector as well.

Effect of mobility on violence in a bi-communal population

We develop a multi-agent based model to simulate a population which comprises of two ethnic groups and a peacekeeping force. We investigate the effects of different strategies for civilian movement to the resulting violence in this bi-communal population. Specifically, we compare and contrast random and race-based migration strategies. Race-based migration leads the formation of clusters. Previous work in this area has shown that same-race clustering instigates violent behavior in otherwise passive segments of the population. Our findings confirm this. Furthermore, we show that in settings where only one of the two races adopts race-based migration it is a winning strategy especially in violently predisposed populations. On the other hand, in relatively peaceful settings clustering is a restricting factor which causes the race that adopts it to drift into annihilation. Finally, we show that when race-based migration is adopted as a strategy by both ethnic groups it results in peaceful co-existence even in the most violently predisposed populations.