Stochastic Search Variable Selection in Vector Error Correction Models with an Application to a Model of the UK Macroeconomy

This paper develops methods for Stochastic Search Variable Selection (currently popular with regression and Vector Autoregressive models) for Vector Error Correction models where there are many possible restrictions on the cointegration space. We show how this allows the researcher to begin with a single unrestricted model and either do model selection or model averaging in an automatic and computationally efficient manner. We apply our methods to a large UK macroeconomic model.

Inverted Haavelmo Effects in a General Equilibrium Analysis of the Impact of Implementing the Scottish Variable Rate of Income Tax.

The Scottish Parliament has the authority to make a balanced-budget expansion or contraction in public expenditure, funded by corresponding local changes in the basic rate of income tax of up to 3p in the pound. This fiscal adjustment is known as the Scottish Variable Rate of income tax, though it has never, as yet, been used. In this paper we attempt to identify the impact on aggregate economic activity in Scotland of implementing these devolved fiscal powers. This is achieved through theoretical analysis and simulation using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model for Scotland. This analysis generalises the conventional Keynesian model so that negative balanced-budget multipliers values are possible, reflecting a regional “inverted Haavelmo effect”. Key parameters determining the aggregate economic impact are the extent to which the Scottish Government create local amenities valuable to the Scottish population and the extent to which this is incorporated into local wage bargaining.

Bayesian Model Averaging in the Instrumental Variable Regression Model

This paper considers the instrumental variable regression model when there is uncertainty about the set of instruments, exogeneity restrictions, the validity of identifying restrictions and the set of exogenous regressors. This uncertainty can result in a huge number of models. To avoid statistical problems associated with standard model selection procedures, we develop a reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm that allows us to do Bayesian model averaging. The algorithm is very exible and can be easily adapted to analyze any of the di¤erent priors that have been proposed in the Bayesian instrumental variables literature. We show how to calculate the probability of any relevant restriction (e.g. the posterior probability that over-identifying restrictions hold) and discuss diagnostic checking using the posterior distribution of discrepancy vectors. We illustrate our methods in a returns-to-schooling application.

Regional Policy Spillovers: The National Impact of Demand-Side Policy in an Interregional Model of the UK Economy

UK regional policy has been advocated as a means of reducing regional disparities and stimulating national growth. However, there is limited understanding of the interregional and national effects of such a policy. This paper uses an interregional computable general equilibrium model to identify the national impact of a policy-induced regional demand shock under alternative labour market closures. Our simulation results suggest that regional policy operating solely on the demand side has significant national impacts. Furthermore, the effects on the non-target region are particularly sensitive to the treatment of the regional labour market.

An investigation of the determinants of household demand for bushmeat in the Serengeti using an open-ended choice experiment

Illegal hunting for bushmeat is regarded as an important cause of biodiversity decline in Africa. We use a stated preferences method to obtain information on determinants of demand for bushmeat in villages around the Serengeti National Park, Tanzania. We estimate the effects of changes in the own price of bushmeat and in the prices of two substitute protein sources – fish and chicken. Promoting the availability of protein substitutes at lower prices would be effective at reducing pressures on wildlife. Supply-side measures that raise the price of bushmeat would also be effective.

Service offshoring and white-collar employment

This paper empirically studies the effects of service offshoring on white-collar employment, using data for more than one hundred U.S. occupations. A model of firm behavior based on separability allows to derive the labor demand elasticity with respect to service offshoring for each occupation. Estimation is performed with Quasi-Maximum Likelihood, to account for high degrees of censoring in the employment variable. The estimated elasticities are then related to proxies for the skill level and the degree of tradability of the occupations. Results show that service offshoring increases high skilled employment and decreases medium and low skilled employment. Within each skill group, however, service offshoring penalizes tradable occupations and benefits non-tradable occupations.

Patrones de tomate: resistencia variable frente al nematodo Meloidogyne

Los patrones de tomate se han propuesto como una alternativa no química al uso del bromuro de metilo. En este estudio se evaluó la respuesta de resistencia de diez patrones de tomate (comerciales y experimentales) a nematodos del género Meloidogyne mediante un ensayo de campo realizado en un invernadero de plástico cuyo suelo se hallaba infestado por Meloidogyne javanica. Al finalizar la campaña agrícola (marzo a julio), siete de los patrones ensayados mostraron altos niveles de resistencia, uno presentó resistencia intermedia y dos resultaron ser susceptibles al nematodo.

Variable viral clearance despite adequate ganciclovir plasma levels during valganciclovir treatment for cytomegalovirus disease in D+/R- transplant recipients.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Valganciclovir, the oral prodrug of ganciclovir, has been demonstrated equivalent to iv ganciclovir for CMV disease treatment in solid organ transplant recipients. Variability in ganciclovir exposure achieved with valganciclovir could be implicated as a contributing factor for explaining variations in the therapeutic response. This prospective observational study aimed to correlate clinical and cytomegalovirus (CMV) viral load response (DNAemia) with ganciclovir plasma concentrations in patients treated with valganciclovir for CMV infection/disease. METHODS: Seven CMV D+/R- transplant recipients (4 kidney, 2 liver and 1 heart) were treated with valganciclovir (initial dose was 900-1800 mg/day for 3-6.5 weeks, followed by 450-900 mg/day for 2-9 weeks). DNAemia was monitored by real time quantitative PCR and ganciclovir plasma concentration was measured at trough (Ctrough) and 3 h after drug administration (C3h) by HPLC. RESULTS: Four patients presented with CMV syndrome, two had CMV tissue-invasive disease after prophylaxis discontinuation, and one liver recipient was treated pre-emptively for asymptomatic rising CMV viral load 5 weeks post-transplantation in the absence of prophylaxis. CMV DNAemia decreased during the first week of treatment in all recipients except in one patient (median decrease: -1.2 log copies/mL, range: -1.8 to 0) despite satisfactory ganciclovir exposure (AUC0-12 = 48 mg.h/L, range for the 7 patients: 40-118 mg.h/L). Viral clearance was obtained in five patients after a median of time of 34 days (range: 28-82 days). Two patients had recurrent CMV disease despite adequate ganciclovir exposure (65 mg.h/L, range: 44-118 mg.h/L). CONCLUSIONS: Valganciclovir treatment for CMV infection/disease in D+/R- transplant recipients can thus result in variable viral clearance despite adequate ganciclovir plasma concentrations, probably correlating inversely with anti-CMV immune responses after primary infection.

Estimation of dynamic latent variable models using simulated nonparametric moments

Abstract. Given a model that can be simulated, conditional moments at a trial parameter value can be calculated with high accuracy by applying kernel smoothing methods to a long simulation. With such conditional moments in hand, standard method of moments techniques can be used to estimate the parameter. Because conditional moments are calculated using kernel smoothing rather than simple averaging, it is not necessary that the model be simulable subject to the conditioning information that is used to define the moment conditions. For this reason, the proposed estimator is applicable to general dynamic latent variable models. It is shown that as the number of simulations diverges, the estimator is consistent and a higher-order expansion reveals the stochastic difference between the infeasible GMM estimator based on the same moment conditions and the simulated version. In particular, we show how to adjust standard errors to account for the simulations. Monte Carlo results show how the estimator may be applied to a range of dynamic latent variable (DLV) models, and that it performs well in comparison to several other estimators that have been proposed for DLV models.

Service offshoring and the skill composition of labor demand

This paper studies the effects of service offshoring on the skill composition of labor demand, using novel comparable data for nine Western European countries between 1990 and 2004. The empirical analysis delivers three main results. First, service offshoring is skill-biased, because it increases the demand for high and medium skilled labor and decreases the demand for low skilled labor. Second, the effects of service offshoring are similar to those of material offshoring, both qualitatively and quantitatively. Third, the economic magnitude of these effects is not large.

CHO expression of a novel human recombinant IgG1 anti-RhD antibody isolated by phage display.

Replacement of the hyperimmune anti-Rhesus (Rh) D immunoglobulin, currently used to prevent haemolytic disease of the newborn, by fully recombinant human anti-RhD antibodies would solve the current logistic problems associated with supply and demand. The combination of phage display repertoire cloning with precise selection procedures enables isolation of specific genes that can then be inserted into mammalian expression systems allowing production of large quantities of recombinant human proteins. With the aim of selecting high-affinity anti-RhD antibodies, two human Fab libraries were constructed from a hyperimmune donor. Use of a new phage panning procedure involving bromelin-treated red blood cells enabled the isolation of two high-affinity Fab-expressing phage clones. LD-6-3 and LD-6-33, specific for RhD. These showed a novel reaction pattern by recognizing the D variants D(III), D(IVa), D(IVb), D(Va), D(VI) types I and II. D(VII), Rh33 and DFR. Full-length immunoglobulin molecules were constructed by cloning the variable regions into expression vectors containing genomic DNA encoding the immunoglobulin constant regions. We describe the first, stable, suspension growth-adapted Chinese hamster ovary (CHO) cell line producing a high affinity recombinant human IgG1 anti-RhD antibody adapted to pilot-scale production. Evaluation of the Fc region of this recombinant antibody by either chemiluminescence or antibody-dependent cell cytotoxicity (ADCC) assays demonstrated macrophage activation and lysis of red blood cells by human lymphocytes. A consistent source of recombinant human anti-RhD immunoglobulin produced by CHO cells is expected to meet the stringent safety and regulatory requirements for prophylactic application.

Variable phenotypic expressivity in a Swiss family with autosomal dominant retinitis pigmentosa due to mutation T494m in the Prpf3 gene

Purpose:to describe the clinical features in a five generations family segregating autosomal dominant retinitis pigmentosa and to identify the causative gene Patient and Methods:Twenty five individuals of a large five-generation family originating from Western Switzerland were ascertained for phenotypic and genotypic characterization. Ophthalmologic evaluations included color vision testing, Goldman perimetry and digital fundus photography. Some patients had autofluorescence (AF) imaging, ocular coherence tomography (OCT) and ISCEV-standard full-field electroretinography (ERG). Blood samples were collected from 10 affected (4 to 70 years of age) and 15 unaffected members after informed consent. DNA was isolated and exons and intron-exons junctions of known adRP genes were sequenced using a Big Dye sequencing kit 1.1. Results:Age of onset of nightblindness and severity of progression of the disease was variable between members of the family. Some patients had early onset of nightblindess aged 3, others at mid-twenties. Most patients had visual acuity above 0.6 for the first 4 decades. Two older patients still had good vision (0.4) in their seventies. Myopia (range: -2 to -5) was noticed in most affected subjects. Fundus findings showed areas of atrophy along the arcades. The AF imaging showed a large high density ring bilaterally. A T494M change was found in exon 11 of PRPF3 gene. The change segregates with the disease in the family. Conclusion: A mutation in the PRPF3 gene is rare compared with other genes causing ADRP. Although a T494M change has been reported, our family is the first one with a variable expressivity. Mutations in PRPF3 gene can cause a variable phenotype of ADRP unlike the previously described Danish and English families. Our report gives a better understanding as to the phenotype/genotype description of ADRP due to PRPF3 mutation.

Anàlisi dels fluxos d'aigua, energia i mobilitat a cinc nuclis turístics de Menorca

Menorca és una illa del Mediterrani occidental i una important destinació turística. El turisme estival és un pilar de l’economia de l’illa i té implicacions en tots els aspectes d’aquesta. Una bona part dels turistes es concentren en nuclis turístics costaners dedicats a una única activitat (l’allotjament de turistes). En aquest projecte s’estudien els consums i els potencials de captació d’aigua i energia de cinc nuclis turístics menorquins i alguns dels seus establiments turístics i se n’avalua el potencial d’autosuficiència. També es fa un estudi de mobilitat dels turistes, a partir del qual es quantifica el cost energètic de la mobilitat i les emissions de CO2 que se’n deriven. Les eines utilitzades han estat enquestes i Sistemes d’Informació Geogràfica. Els resultats mostren que el consum hídric per persona és molt variable (de 98 a 466 litres diaris). El consum elèctric per persona és més homogeni que el d’aigua (entre 5 i 10 kWh·persona-1·dia-1 a nivell de nucli turístic) i presenta valors superiors en allotjaments del tipus hotel que del tipus apartaments. Els trajectes d’anada i tornada a l’illa amb avió o vaixell representen més del 80% del cost energètic total de les vacances a Menorca (aprox. 1 MWh per estada) i de les emissions de CO2 associades. Els turistes espanyols recorren un 180% més de distància en desplaçaments a l’interior de l’illa que els d’altres nacionalitats. L’aprofitament d’aigües pluvials podria cobrir menys del 25% de les necessitats hídriques de la majoria d’allotjaments turístics i entre el 28 i el 36% de les necessitats hídriques totals dels nuclis turístics, mantenint-se els nivells actuals de consum. La captació d’energia solar fotovoltaica in situ podria arribar a suplir entre el 50 i el 90% del consum d’energia elèctrica en els nuclis turístics i fins al 100% del mateix en alguns allotjaments turístics.

Comparative Histopathology of Biomphalaria glabrata, B. tenagophila and B. straminea with Variable Degrees of Resistance to Schistosoma mansoni Miracidia

A comparative histopathological study of three snails species - Biomphalaria glabrata, B. tenagophila and B. straminea - which had been infected with Schistosoma mansoni miracidia revealed similar qualitative features, consisting of areas of sporocyst proliferation and differentiation associated with reactive host reaction, at the time they were actively eliminating great number of cercariae. However, in specimens that were exposed to miracidia but failed to eliminate cercariae later on, different histopathological pictures were observed in different snail species. While B. glabrata exhibited frequent focal (granulomatous) proliferation of amebocytes in several organs, B. tenagophila and B. straminea only rarely showed such reactive changes, suggesting that the mechanism of resistance to miracidial infection probably follows different pathways in the snail species studied

Two monoclonal rat antibodies with specificity for the beta-chain variable region V beta 6 of the murine T-cell receptor.

Two rat monoclonal antibodies (mAbs), 44-22-1 and 46-6B5, which recognize an alloreactive cytotoxic clone, 3F9, have been further tested on a panel of T hybridomas and cytotoxic T-cell clones for binding and functional activities. The mAbs recognized only those cells sharing the expression of the T-cell receptor beta-chain variable region gene V beta 6 with 3F9. All V beta 6+ cells were activated by these mAbs under cross-linking conditions and their antigen-specific activation was blocked by soluble mAb. Furthermore, depletion of 46-6B5+ normal lymph node T cells eliminated all cells expressing the epitope recognized by 44-22-1 and V beta 6 mRNA.