Future changes of wind energy potentials over Europe in a large CMIP5 multi-model ensemble

A statistical-dynamical downscaling method is used to estimate future changes of wind energy output (Eout) of a benchmark wind turbine across Europe at the regional scale. With this aim, 22 global climate models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble are considered. The downscaling method uses circulation weather types and regional climate modelling with the COSMO-CLM model. Future projections are computed for two time periods (2021–2060 and 2061–2100) following two scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The CMIP5 ensemble mean response reveals a more likely than not increase of mean annual Eout over Northern and Central Europe and a likely decrease over Southern Europe. There is some uncertainty with respect to the magnitude and the sign of the changes. Higher robustness in future changes is observed for specific seasons. Except from the Mediterranean area, an ensemble mean increase of Eout is simulated for winter and a decreasing for the summer season, resulting in a strong increase of the intra-annual variability for most of Europe. The latter is, in particular, probable during the second half of the 21st century under the RCP8.5 scenario. In general, signals are stronger for 2061–2100 compared to 2021–2060 and for RCP8.5 compared to RCP4.5. Regarding changes of the inter-annual variability of Eout for Central Europe, the future projections strongly vary between individual models and also between future periods and scenarios within single models. This study showed for an ensemble of 22 CMIP5 models that changes in the wind energy potentials over Europe may take place in future decades. However, due to the uncertainties detected in this research, further investigations with multi-model ensembles are needed to provide a better quantification and understanding of the future changes.

Decadal predictability of regional scale wind speed and wind energy potentials over Central Europe

Decadal predictions on timescales from one year to one decade are gaining importance since this time frame falls within the planning horizon of politics, economy and society. The present study examines the decadal predictability of regional wind speed and wind energy potentials in three generations of the MiKlip (‘Mittelfristige Klimaprognosen’) decadal prediction system. The system is based on the global Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM), and the three generations differ primarily in the ocean initialisation. Ensembles of uninitialised historical and yearly initialised hindcast experiments are used to assess the forecast skill for 10 m wind speeds and wind energy output (Eout) over Central Europe with lead times from one year to one decade. With this aim, a statistical-dynamical downscaling (SDD) approach is used for the regionalisation. Its added value is evaluated by comparison of skill scores for MPI-ESM large-scale wind speeds and SDD-simulated regional wind speeds. All three MPI-ESM ensemble generations show some forecast skill for annual mean wind speed and Eout over Central Europe on yearly and multi-yearly time scales. This forecast skill is mostly limited to the first years after initialisation. Differences between the three ensemble generations are generally small. The regionalisation preserves and sometimes increases the forecast skills of the global runs but results depend on lead time and ensemble generation. Moreover, regionalisation often improves the ensemble spread. Seasonal Eout skills are generally lower than for annual means. Skill scores are lowest during summer and persist longest in autumn. A large-scale westerly weather type with strong pressure gradients over Central Europe is identified as potential source of the skill for wind energy potentials, showing a similar forecast skill and a high correlation with Eout anomalies. These results are promising towards the establishment of a decadal prediction system for wind energy applications over Central Europe.

New use of global warming potentials to compare cumulative and short-lived climate pollutants

Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) have requested guidance on common greenhouse gas metrics in accounting for Nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to emission reductions1. Metric choice can affect the relative emphasis placed on reductions of ‘cumulative climate pollutants’ such as carbon dioxide versus ‘short-lived climate pollutants’ (SLCPs), including methane and black carbon2, 3, 4, 5, 6. Here we show that the widely used 100-year global warming potential (GWP100) effectively measures the relative impact of both cumulative pollutants and SLCPs on realized warming 20–40 years after the time of emission. If the overall goal of climate policy is to limit peak warming, GWP100 therefore overstates the importance of current SLCP emissions unless stringent and immediate reductions of all climate pollutants result in temperatures nearing their peak soon after mid-century7, 8, 9, 10, which may be necessary to limit warming to “well below 2 °C” (ref. 1). The GWP100 can be used to approximately equate a one-off pulse emission of a cumulative pollutant and an indefinitely sustained change in the rate of emission of an SLCP11, 12, 13. The climate implications of traditional CO2-equivalent targets are ambiguous unless contributions from cumulative pollutants and SLCPs are specified separately.

Ozone formation potentials of volatile organic compounds and ozone sensitivity to their emission in the megacity of Sao Paulo, Brazil

In the present study, a three-dimensional Eulerian photochemical model was employed to estimate the impact that organic compounds have on tropospheric ozone formation in the Metropolitan Area of Sao Paulo (MASP). In the year 2000, base case simulations were conducted in two periods: August 22-24 and March 13-15. Based on the pollutant concentrations calculated by the model, the correlation coefficient relative to observations for ozone ranged from 0.91 to 0.93 in both periods. In the simulations employed to evaluate the ozone potential of individual VOCs, as well as the sensitivity of ozone to the VOC/NO(x) emission ratio, the variation in anthropogenic emissions was estimated at 15% (according to tests performed previously variations of 15% were stable). Although there were significant differences between the two periods, ozone concentrations were found to be much more sensitive to VOCs than to NO(x) in both periods and throughout the study domain. In addition, considering their individual rates of emission from vehicles, the species/classes that were most important for ozone formation were as follows: aromatics with a kOH>2x 10(4) ppm(-1) min(-1); olefins with a kOH 7 x 10(4) ppm(-1) min(-1); olefins with a kOH 7 x 10(4) ppm(-1) min(-1); ethene; and formaldehyde, which are the principal species related to the production, transport, storage and combustion of fossil fuels.

Limitation of double folding potentials to simulate the polarization in reactions involving halo nuclei

In this work, we investigate the limitation of the use of strength coefficients on double folding potentials to study the presence of the threshold anomaly in the elastic scattering of halo nuclei at near barrier energies. For this purpose, elastic angular distributions and reaction cross sections for the He-6 on Bi-209 are studied. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A further exploration of a nucleophilicity index based on the gas-phase ionization potentials

An empirical nucleophilicity index based on the gas-phase ionization potentials has been recently shown to be useful categorizing and settling the nucleophilicity power of a series of captodative ethylenes reacting in cycloaddition reactions (L.R. Domingo, E. Chamorro, P. Perez, Journal of Organic Chemistry 73 (2008) 4615-4624). In the present work, the applicability of such model is tested within a broader series of substituted alkenes, substituted aromatic compounds and simple nucleophilic molecules. This index obtained within a Koopman`s theorem framework has been evaluated here in both gas and solution phases for several well-known nucleophiles. These results are found to be linearly correlated. Finally, the feasibility of the predictive character of this index has been discussed in comparison to the available experimental nucleophilicities of some amines in water. These results further support and validate the usefulness of such approximation in the modeling of the global nucleophilicity. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Conservation laws and tachyon potentials in the sliver frame

Conservation laws have provided an elegant and efficient tool to evaluate the open string field theory interaction vertex, they have been originally implemented in the case where the string field is expanded in the Virasoro basis. In this work we derive conservation laws in the case where the string field is expanded in the so-called sliver L(0)-basis. As an application of this new set of conservation laws, we compute the open string field action relevant to the tachyon condensation and in order to present not only an illustration but also an additional information, we evaluate the action without imposing a gauge choice.

Bose systems in spatially random or time-varying potentials

Bose systems, subject to the action of external random potentials, are considered. For describing the system properties, under the action of spatially random potentials of arbitrary strength, the stochastic mean-field approximation is employed. When the strength of disorder increases, the extended Bose-Einstein condensate fragments into spatially disconnected regions, forming a granular condensate. Increasing the strength of disorder even more transforms the granular condensate into the normal glass. The influence of time-dependent external potentials is also discussed. Fastly varying temporal potentials, to some extent, imitate the action of spatially random potentials. In particular, strong time-alternating potential can induce the appearance of a nonequilibrium granular condensate.

Spectroscopic evidences of the presence of hydrogenated species on the surface of copper during CO(2) electroreduction at low cathodic potentials

Carbon dioxide electroreduction on copper electrode was studied by surface enhanced Raman scattering (SERS) in K(2)SO(4) aqueous solutions with different pH values. CO(2) was bubbled into the solution at 0 V vs. Ag/AgCl, i.e., on an oxidized copper surface. In acidic solutions (pH around 2.5), at -0.2 V, bands indicative of the presence of ethylene on the electrode surface were detected. Although ethylene is knowledgably a product of CO(2) electroreduction on copper, it was not experimentally identified on the electrode`s surface at such a low cathodic potential in prior works. In solutions with pH around 2.5, CO bands were not observed, suggesting that hydrocarbons could be formed by a pathway that does not occur via adsorbed CO. In solutions with higher pHs, a complex spectral pattern, between 800 and 1700 cm(-1), was observed at approximately -0.4 V. The observed spectrum closely resembles those reported in the literature for adsorption of monocarboxylic acids with small chains. The spectral features indicate the presence of a structure containing a double C=C bond. a carboxyl group, and C-H bonds on the electrode`s surface. SERS spectra obtained in CO-saturated solution are also presented. However, in this case, no SERS bands were observed in the region between 800 and 1700 cm(-1) at low cathodic potentials. (c) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Dynamics of Bose-Einstein condensates in double-well potentials

We study the dynamics of Bose-Einstein condensates in symmetric double-well potentials following a sudden change of the potential from the Mott-insulator to the superfluid regime. We introduce a continuum approximation that maps that problem onto the wave-packet dynamics of a particle in an anharmonic effective potential. For repulsive two-body interactions the visibility of interference fringes that result from the superposition of the two condensates following a stage of ballistic expansion exhibits a collapse of coherent oscillations onto a background value whose magnitude depends on the amount of squeezing of the initial state. Strong attractive interactions are found to stabilize the relative number dynamics. We visualize the dynamics of the system in phase space using a quasiprobability distribution that allows for an intuitive interpretation of the various types of dynamics.

Coherence dynamics of two-mode condensates in asymmetric potentials

Detection of weak forces with an accuracy beyond the standard quantum limit holds promise both for fundamental research and for technological applications. Schemes involving ultracold atoms for such measurements are now considered to be prime candidates for increased sensitivity. In this paper we use a combination of analytical and numerical techniques to investigate the possible subshot-noise estimation of applied force fields through detection of coherence dynamics of Bose-condensed atoms in asymmetric double-well traps. Following a semiclassical description of the system dynamics and fringe visibility, we present numerical simulations of the full quantum dynamics that demonstrate the dynamical production of phase squeezing beyond the standard quantum limit. Nonlinear interactions are found to limit the achievable amount to a finite value determined by the external weak force.

Local Field Potentials in the Gustatory Cortex Carry Taste Information

It has been recently shownthat localfield potentials (LFPs)fromthe auditory and visual cortices carry information about sensory stimuli, but whether this is a universal property of sensory cortices remains to be determined. Moreover, little is known about the temporal dynamics of sensory information contained in LFPs following stimulus onset. Here we investigated the time course of the amount of stimulus information in LFPs and spikes from the gustatory cortex of awake rats subjected to tastants and water delivery on the tongue. We found that the phase and amplitude of multiple LFP frequencies carry information about stimuli, which have specific time courses after stimulus delivery. The information carried by LFP phase and amplitude was independent within frequency bands, since the joint information exhibited neither synergy nor redundancy. Tastant information in LFPs was also independent and had a different time course from the information carried by spikes. These findings support the hypothesis that the brain uses different frequency channels to dynamically code for multiple features of a stimulus.

Bounded solutions of fermions in the background of mixed vector-scalar inversely linear potentials

The problem of a fermion subject to a general mixing of vector and scalar potentials in a two-dimensional world is mapped into a Sturm-Liouville problem. Isolated bounded solutions are also searched. For the specific case of an inversely linear potential, which gives rise to an effective Kratzer potential in the Sturm-Liouville problem, exact bounded solutions are found in closed form. The case of a pure scalar potential with their isolated zero-energy solutions, already analyzed in a previous work, is obtained as a particular case. The behavior of the upper and lower components of the Dirac spinor is discussed in detail and some unusual results are revealed. The nonrelativistic limit of our results adds a new support to the conclusion that even-parity solutions to the nonrelativistic one-dimensional hydrogen atom do not exist. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Position-dependent effective mass Dirac equations with PT-symmetric and non-PT-symmetric potentials

We present a new procedure to construct the one-dimensional non-Hermitian imaginary potential with a real energy spectrum in the context of the position-dependent effective mass Dirac equation with the vector-coupling scheme in 1 + 1 dimensions. In the first example, we consider a case for which the mass distribution combines linear and inversely linear forms, the Dirac problem with a PT-symmetric potential is mapped into the exactly solvable Schrodinger-like equation problem with the isotonic oscillator by using the local scaling of the wavefunction. In the second example, we take a mass distribution with smooth step shape, the Dirac problem with a non-PT-symmetric imaginary potential is mapped into the exactly solvable Schrodinger-like equation problem with the Rosen-Morse potential. The real relativistic energy levels and corresponding wavefunctions for the bound states are obtained in terms of the supersymmetric quantum mechanics approach and the function analysis method.

Unified treatment of mixed vector-scalar screened Coulomb potentials for fermions

The problem of a fermion subject to a general mixing of vector and scalar screened Coulomb potentials in a two-dimensional world is analyzed and quantization conditions are found.