737 resultados para Subjective expected utility
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State University Audit Report
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Pavement settlement occurring in and around utility cuts is a common problem, resulting in uneven pavement surfaces, annoyance to drivers, and ultimately, further maintenance. A survey of municipal authorities and field and laboratory investigations were conducted to identify the factors contributing to the settlement of utility cut restorations in pavement sections. Survey responses were received from seven cities across Iowa and indicate that utility cut restorations often last less than two years. Observations made during site inspections showed that backfill material varies from one city to another, backfill lift thickness often exceeds 12 inches, and the backfill material is often placed at bulking moisture contents with no Quality control/Quality Assurance. Laboratory investigation of the backfill materials indicate that at the field moisture contents encountered, the backfill materials have collapse potentials up to 35%. Falling Weight Deflectometer (FWD) deflection data and elevation shots indicate that the maximum deflection in the pavement occurs in the area around the utility cut restoration. The FWD data indicate a zone of influence around the perimeter of the restoration extending two to three feet beyond the trench perimeter. The research team proposes moisture control, the use of 65% relative density in a granular fill, and removing and compacting the native material near the ground surface around the trench. Test sections with geogrid reinforcement were also incorporated. The performance of inspected and proposed utility cuts needs to be monitored for at least two more years.
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State University Audit Report
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This article introduces a model of rationality that combines procedural utility over actions with consequential utility over payoffs. It applies the model to the Prisoners Dilemma and shows that empirically observed cooperative behaviors can be rationally explained by a procedural utility for cooperation. The model characterizes the situations in which cooperation emerges as a Nash equilibrium. When rational individuals are not solely concerned by the consequences of their behavior but also care for the process by which these consequences are obtained, there is no one single rational solution to a Prisoners Dilemma. Rational behavior depends on the payoffs at stake and on the procedural utility of individuals. In this manner, this model of procedural utility reflects how ethical considerations, social norms or emotions can transform a game of consequences.
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Osteoporosis is well recognized as a public health problem in industrialized countries. Because of the efficiency of new treatments to decrease fracture risk, it is of a major interest to detect the patients who should benefit from such treatments. A diagnosis of osteoporosis is necessary before to start a specific treatment. This diagnosis is based on the measurement of the skeleton (hip and spine) with dual X-ray absorptiometry, using diagnostic criteria established by the World Health Organisation (WHO). In Switzerland, indications for bone densitometry are limited to precise situations. This technique cannot be applied for screening. For this purpose, peripheral measurements and particularly quantitative ultrasounds of bone seem to be promising. Indeed, several prospective studies clearly showed their predictive power for hip fracture risk in women aged more than 65 years. In order to facilitate the clinical use of bone ultrasounds, thresholds of risk of fracture and osteoporosis of the hip will be shortly published. This will integrate bone ultrasound in a global concept including bone densitometry and its indications, but also other risk factors for osteoporosis recognized by the Swiss association against osteoporosis (ASCO).
Weak and Strong Altruism in Trait Groups: Reproductive Suicide, Personal Fitness, and Expected Value
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A simple variant of trait group selection, employing predators as the mechanism underlying group selection, supports contingent reproductive suicide as altruism (i.e., behavior lowering personal fitness while augmenting that of another) without kin assortment. The contingent suicidal type may either saturate the population or be polymorphic with a type avoiding suicide, depending on parameters. In addition to contingent suicide, this randomly assorting morph may also exhibit continuously expressed strong altruism (sensu Wilson 1979) usually thought restricted to kin selection. The model will not, however, support a sterile worker caste as such, where sterility occurs before life history events associated with effective altruism; reproductive suicide must remain fundamentally contingent (facultative sensu West Eberhard 1987; Myles 1988) under random assortment. The continuously expressed strong altruism supported by the model may be reinterpreted as probability of arbitrarily committing reproductive suicide, without benefit for another; such arbitrary suicide (a "load" on "adaptive" suicide) is viable only under a more restricted parameter space relative to the necessarily concomitant adaptive contingent suicide.
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AIM: In normal aging, subjective cognitive decline (SCD) might reflect personality traits or affective states rather than objective cognitive decline. However, little is known on the correlates of SCD in mild cognitive impairment (MCI). The present study investigates SCD in MCI patients and healthy older adults, and explores the association of SCD with personality traits, affective states, behavioral and psychological symptoms (BPS), and episodic memory in patients with MCI as compared with healthy older adults. METHODS: A total of 55 patients with MCI and 84 healthy older adults were recruited. Standard instruments were used to evaluate SCD, episodic memory, BPS and affective states. Premorbid and current personality traits were assessed by proxies using the NEO Personality Inventory Revised. RESULTS: Patients with MCI generally reported SCD more often than healthy older adults. SCD was positively associated with depressive symptoms in both groups. With regard to personality, no significant relationship was found in the healthy older group, whereas agreeableness was significantly negatively related to SCD in the MCI group. No significant association was found between SCD and episodic memory. CONCLUSIONS: SCD is more prevalent in patients with MCI than in the healthy elderly, but it does not reflect an objective cognitive impairment. SCD rather echoes depressive symptoms in both patients with MCI and healthy subjects. The negative association of SCD with agreeableness observed in patients with MCI could indicate that MCI patients scoring high on the agreeableness trait would not report SCD in order to prevent their relatives worrying about their increasing cognitive difficulties. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2014; 14: 589-595.
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In this paper, we address the relationship between age and several dimension of subjective well-being. Whilst literature generally finds a U-shaped age-profile in subjective well-being, this age-pattern might only hold after controlling for objective life circumstances. The observed U-shaped age-profile might further not generalize to other dimensions of well-being and might vary across countries and cultures. Our study examines the relationship between age and several dimensions of well-being as well as the effect of objective life circumstances using the WHO Study on Global AGEing and Adult Health (SAGE). Our results suggest a decreasing age profile in the raw data associated with evaluative well-being, while experienced well-being shows a rather flat or slightly increasing pattern. However, age per se is not a cause of a decline in evaluative well-being. The negative age-profile in evaluative well-being is mainly explained by changes in life circumstances associated with aging. Controlling for socio-demographic factors, we find higher levels of well-being for older persons relative to their middle-aged counterparts. In contrast, we find that changes in life circumstances have a much smaller effect on experienced well-being.
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In the homogeneous case of one type of goods or objects, we prove theexistence of an additive utility function without assuming transitivityof indifference and independence. The representation reveals a positivefactor smaller than 1 that infuences rational choice beyond the utilityfunction and explains departures from these standard axioms of utilitytheory (factor equals to 1).
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Scoring rules that elicit an entire belief distribution through the elicitation of point beliefsare time-consuming and demand considerable cognitive e¤ort. Moreover, the results are validonly when agents are risk-neutral or when one uses probabilistic rules. We investigate a classof rules in which the agent has to choose an interval and is rewarded (deterministically) onthe basis of the chosen interval and the realization of the random variable. We formulatean e¢ ciency criterion for such rules and present a speci.c interval scoring rule. For single-peaked beliefs, our rule gives information about both the location and the dispersion of thebelief distribution. These results hold for all concave utility functions.
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Researchers have used stylized facts on asset prices and trading volumein stock markets (in particular, the mean reversion of asset returnsand the correlations between trading volume, price changes and pricelevels) to support theories where agents are not rational expected utilitymaximizers. This paper shows that this empirical evidence is in factconsistent with a standard infite horizon perfect information expectedutility economy where some agents face leverage constraints similar tothose found in todays financial markets. In addition, and in sharpcontrast to the theories above, we explain some qualitative differencesthat are observed in the price-volume relation on stock and on futuresmarkets. We consider a continuous-time economy where agents maximize theintegral of their discounted utility from consumption under both budgetand leverage con-straints. Building on the work by Vila and Zariphopoulou(1997), we find a closed form solution, up to a negative constant, for theequilibrium prices and demands in the region of the state space where theconstraint is non-binding. We show that, at the equilibrium, stock holdingsvolatility as well as its ratio to stock price volatility are increasingfunctions of the stock price and interpret this finding in terms of theprice-volume relation.
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In this paper we consider an insider with privileged information thatis affected by an independent noise vanishing as the revelation timeapproaches. At this time, information is available to every trader. Ourfinancial markets are based on Wiener space. In probabilistic terms weobtain an infinite dimensional extension of Jacod s theorem to covercases of progressive enlargement of filtrations. The application ofthis result gives the semimartingale decomposition of the originalWiener process under the progressively enlarged filtration. As anapplication we prove that if the rate at which the additional noise inthe insider s information vanishes is slow enough then there is noarbitrage and the additional utility of the insider is finite.