Mitochondrial sequence data and Dipsacales phylogeny: Mixed models, partitioned Bayesian analyses, and model selection

Phylogenetic analyses of chloroplast DNA sequences, morphology, and combined data have provided consistent support for many of the major branches within the angiosperm, clade Dipsacales. Here we use sequences from three mitochondrial loci to test the existing broad scale phylogeny and in an attempt to resolve several relationships that have remained uncertain. Parsimony, maximum likelihood, and Bayesian analyses of a combined mitochondrial data set recover trees broadly consistent with previous studies, although resolution and support are lower than in the largest chloroplast analyses. Combining chloroplast and mitochondrial data results in a generally well-resolved and very strongly supported topology but the previously recognized problem areas remain. To investigate why these relationships have been difficult to resolve we conducted a series of experiments using different data partitions and heterogeneous substitution models. Usually more complex modeling schemes are favored regardless of the partitions recognized but model choice had little effect on topology or support values. In contrast there are consistent but weakly supported differences in the topologies recovered from coding and non-coding matrices. These conflicts directly correspond to relationships that were poorly resolved in analyses of the full combined chloroplast-mitochondrial data set. We suggest incongruent signal has contributed to our inability to confidently resolve these problem areas. (c) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Exact Search Directions for Optimization of Linear and Nonlinear Models Based on Generalized Orthonormal Functions

A novel technique for selecting the poles of orthonormal basis functions (OBF) in Volterra models of any order is presented. It is well-known that the usual large number of parameters required to describe the Volterra kernels can be significantly reduced by representing each kernel using an appropriate basis of orthonormal functions. Such a representation results in the so-called OBF Volterra model, which has a Wiener structure consisting of a linear dynamic generated by the orthonormal basis followed by a nonlinear static mapping given by the Volterra polynomial series. Aiming at optimizing the poles that fully parameterize the orthonormal bases, the exact gradients of the outputs of the orthonormal filters with respect to their poles are computed analytically by using a back-propagation-through-time technique. The expressions relative to the Kautz basis and to generalized orthonormal bases of functions (GOBF) are addressed; the ones related to the Laguerre basis follow straightforwardly as a particular case. The main innovation here is that the dynamic nature of the OBF filters is fully considered in the gradient computations. These gradients provide exact search directions for optimizing the poles of a given orthonormal basis. Such search directions can, in turn, be used as part of an optimization procedure to locate the minimum of a cost-function that takes into account the error of estimation of the system output. The Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm is adopted here as the optimization procedure. Unlike previous related work, the proposed approach relies solely on input-output data measured from the system to be modeled, i.e., no information about the Volterra kernels is required. Examples are presented to illustrate the application of this approach to the modeling of dynamic systems, including a real magnetic levitation system with nonlinear oscillatory behavior.

Using stochastic volatility models to analyse weekly ozone averages in Mexico City

In this paper we make use of some stochastic volatility models to analyse the behaviour of a weekly ozone average measurements series. The models considered here have been used previously in problems related to financial time series. Two models are considered and their parameters are estimated using a Bayesian approach based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Both models are applied to the data provided by the monitoring network of the Metropolitan Area of Mexico City. The selection of the best model for that specific data set is performed using the Deviance Information Criterion and the Conditional Predictive Ordinate method.

Influence diagnostics in nonlinear mixed-effects elliptical models

In this work we propose and analyze nonlinear elliptical models for longitudinal data, which represent an alternative to gaussian models in the cases of heavy tails, for instance. The elliptical distributions may help to control the influence of the observations in the parameter estimates by naturally attributing different weights for each case. We consider random effects to introduce the within-group correlation and work with the marginal model without requiring numerical integration. An iterative algorithm to obtain maximum likelihood estimates for the parameters is presented, as well as diagnostic results based on residual distances and local influence [Cook, D., 1986. Assessment of local influence. journal of the Royal Statistical Society - Series B 48 (2), 133-169; Cook D., 1987. Influence assessment. journal of Applied Statistics 14 (2),117-131; Escobar, L.A., Meeker, W.Q., 1992, Assessing influence in regression analysis with censored data, Biometrics 48, 507-528]. As numerical illustration, we apply the obtained results to a kinetics longitudinal data set presented in [Vonesh, E.F., Carter, R.L., 1992. Mixed-effects nonlinear regression for unbalanced repeated measures. Biometrics 48, 1-17], which was analyzed under the assumption of normality. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Transformed generalized linear models

The estimation of data transformation is very useful to yield response variables satisfying closely a normal linear model, Generalized linear models enable the fitting of models to a wide range of data types. These models are based on exponential dispersion models. We propose a new class of transformed generalized linear models to extend the Box and Cox models and the generalized linear models. We use the generalized linear model framework to fit these models and discuss maximum likelihood estimation and inference. We give a simple formula to estimate the parameter that index the transformation of the response variable for a subclass of models. We also give a simple formula to estimate the rth moment of the original dependent variable. We explore the possibility of using these models to time series data to extend the generalized autoregressive moving average models discussed by Benjamin er al. [Generalized autoregressive moving average models. J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 98, 214-223]. The usefulness of these models is illustrated in a Simulation study and in applications to three real data sets. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Transformed symmetric models

For the first time, we introduce a class of transformed symmetric models to extend the Box and Cox models to more general symmetric models. The new class of models includes all symmetric continuous distributions with a possible non-linear structure for the mean and enables the fitting of a wide range of models to several data types. The proposed methods offer more flexible alternatives to Box-Cox or other existing procedures. We derive a very simple iterative process for fitting these models by maximum likelihood, whereas a direct unconditional maximization would be more difficult. We give simple formulae to estimate the parameter that indexes the transformation of the response variable and the moments of the original dependent variable which generalize previous published results. We discuss inference on the model parameters. The usefulness of the new class of models is illustrated in one application to a real dataset.

Quantitative structure-activity relationships for a series of inhibitors of cruzain from Trypanosoma cruzi: Molecular modeling, CoMFA and CoMSIA studies

Human parasitic diseases are the foremost threat to human health and welfare around the world. Trypanosomiasis is a very serious infectious disease against which the currently available drugs are limited and not effective. Therefore, there is an urgent need for new chemotherapeutic agents. One attractive drug target is the major cysteine protease from Trypanosoma cruzi, cruzain. In the present work, comparative molecular field analysis (CoMFA) and comparative molecular similarity indices analysis (CoMSIA) studies were conducted on a series of thiosemicarbazone and semicarbazone derivatives as inhibitors of cruzain. Molecular modeling studies were performed in order to identify the preferred binding mode of the inhibitors into the enzyme active site, and to generate structural alignments for the three-dimensional quantitative structure-activity relationship (3D QSAR) investigations. Statistically significant models were obtained (CoMFA. r(2) = 0.96 and q(2) = 0.78; CoMSIA, r(2) = 0.91 and q(2) = 0.73), indicating their predictive ability for untested compounds. The models were externally validated employing a test set, and the predicted values were in good agreement with the experimental results. The final QSAR models and the information gathered from the 3D CoMFA and CoMSIA contour maps provided important insights into the chemical and structural basis involved in the molecular recognition process of this family of cruzain inhibitors, and should be useful for the design of new structurally related analogs with improved potency. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Fragment-Based QSAR and Molecular Modeling Studies on a Series of Discodermolide Analogs as Microtubule-Stabilizing Anticancer Agents

Inhibition of microtubule function is an attractive rational approach to anticancer therapy. Although taxanes are the most prominent among the microtubule-stabilizers, their clinical toxicity, poor pharmacokinetic properties, and resistance have stimulated the search for new antitumor agents having the same mechanism of action. Discodermolide is an example of nontaxane natural product that has the same mechanism of action, demonstrating superior antitumor efficacy and therapeutic index. The extraordinary chemical and biological properties have qualified discodermolide as a lead structure for the design of novel anticancer agents with optimized therapeutic properties. In the present work, we have employed a specialized fragment-based method to develop robust quantitative structure - activity relationship models for a series of synthetic discodermolide analogs. The generated molecular recognition patterns were combined with three-dimensional molecular modeling studies as a fundamental step on the path to understanding the molecular basis of drug-receptor interactions within this important series of potent antitumoral agents.

Three-dimensional quantitative structure-activity relationships for a large series of potent antitubercular agents

Comparative molecular field analysis (CoMFA) studies were conducted on a series of 100 isoniazid derivatives as anti-tuberculosis agents using two receptor-independent structural data set alignment strategies: (1) rigid-body fit, and (2) pharmacophore-based. Significant cross-validated correlation coefficients were obtained (CoMFA(1), q(2) = 0,75 and CoMFA(2), q(2) = 0.74), indicating the potential of the models for untested compounds. The models were then used to predict the inhibitory potency of 20 test set compounds that were not included in the training set, and the predicted values were in good agreement with the experimental results.

Quantitative structure-activity studies on a series of migrastatin analogs as inhibitors of cancer cell metastasis

Migrastatin, a macrolide natural product, and its structurally related analogs are potent inhibitors of cancer cell metastasis, invasion and migration. In the present work, a specialized fragment-based method was employed to develop QSAR models for a series of migrastatin and isomigrastatin analogs. Significant correlation coefficients were obtained (best model, q(2) = 0.76 and r(2) = 0.91) indicating that the QSAR models possess high internal consistency. The best model was then used to predict the potency of an external test set, and the predicted values were in good agreement with the experimental results (R(2) (pred) = 0.85). The final model and the corresponding contribution maps, combined with molecular modeling studies, provided important insights into the key structural features for the anticancer activity of this family of synthetic compounds based on natural products.

Classical and hologram QSAR studies on a series of inhibitors of trypanosomatid Glyceraldehyde-3-Phosphate Dehydrogenase

Leishmaniasis and trypanosomiasis are major causes of morbidity and mortality in both tropical and subtropical regions of the world. The current available drugs are limited, ineffective, and require long treatment regimens. Due to the high dependence of trypanosomatids on glycolysis as a source of energy, some glycolytic enzymes have been identified as attractive targets for drug design. In the present work, classical Two-Dimensional Quantitative Structure -Activity Relationships (2D QSAR) and Hologram QSAR (HQSAR) studies were performed on a series of adenosine derivatives as inhibitors of Leishmania mexicana Glyceraldehyde-3-Phosphate Dehydrogenase (LmGAPDH). Significant correlation coefficients (classical QSAR, r(2)=0.83 and q(2) =0.81; HQSAR, r(2)=0.91 and q(2) =0.86) were obtained for the 56 training set compounds, indicating the potential of the models for untested compounds. The models were then externally validated using a test set of 14 structurally related compounds and the predicted values were in good agreement with the experimental results (classical QSAR, r(pred)(2) = 0.94; HQSAR, r(pred)(2) = 0.92).

Fragment-based and classical quantitative structure-activity relationships for a series of hydrazides as antituberculosis agents

Worldwide, tuberculosis (TB) is the leading cause of death among curable infectious diseases. Multidrug-resistant Mycobacterium tuberculosis is an emerging problem of great importance to public health, and there is an urgent need for new anti-TB drugs. In the present work, classical 2D quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSAR) and hologram QSAR (HQSAR) studies were performed on a training set of 91 isoniazid derivatives. Significant statistical models (classical QSAR, q(2) = 0.68 and r(2) = 0.72; HQSAR, q(2) = 0.63 and r(2) = 0.86) were obtained, indicating their consistency for untested compounds. The models were then used to evaluate an external test set containing 24 compounds which were not included in the training set, and the predicted values were in good agreement with the experimental results (HQSAR, r(pred)(2) = 0.87; classical QSAR, r(pred)(2) = 0.75).

Classical and fragment-based hologram structure-activity relationships for a series of analgesic cyclic imides

Cyclic imides have been widely employed in drug design research due to their multiple pharmacological and biological properties. In the present study, two-dimensional quantitative structure-activity relationship (2D QSAR) studies were conducted on a series of potent analgesic cyclic imides using both classical and hologram QSAR (HQSAR) methods, yielding significant statistical models (classical QSAR, q(2) = 0.80; HQSAR, q(2) = 0.84). The models were then used to evaluate an external data test, and the predicted values were in good agreement with the experimental results, indicating their consistency for untested compounds.

Comparative molecular field analysis of a series of inhibitors of HIV-1 protease

Several protease inhibitors have reached the world market in the last fifteen years, dramatically improving the quality of life and life expectancy of millions of HIV-infected patients. In spite of the tremendous research efforts in this area, resistant HIV-1 variants are constantly decreasing the ability of the drugs to efficiently inhibit the enzyme. As a consequence, inhibitors with novel frameworks are necessary to circumvent resistance to chemotherapy. In the present work, we have created 3D QSAR models for a series of 82 HIV-1 protease inhibitors employing the comparative molecular field analysis (CoMFA) method. Significant correlation coefficients were obtained (q(2) = 0.82 and r(2) = 0.97), indicating the internal consistency of the best model, which was then used to evaluate an external test set containing 17 compounds. The predicted values were in good agreement with the experimental results, showing the robustness of the model and its substantial predictive power for untested compounds. The final QSAR model and the information gathered from the CoMFA contour maps should be useful for the design of novel anti-HIV agents with improved potency.

Measuring time series predictability using support vector regression

Most studies involving statistical time series analysis rely on assumptions of linearity, which by its simplicity facilitates parameter interpretation and estimation. However, the linearity assumption may be too restrictive for many practical applications. The implementation of nonlinear models in time series analysis involves the estimation of a large set of parameters, frequently leading to overfitting problems. In this article, a predictability coefficient is estimated using a combination of nonlinear autoregressive models and the use of support vector regression in this model is explored. We illustrate the usefulness and interpretability of results by using electroencephalographic records of an epileptic patient.