Adaptív döntéshozatal a beszállítóválasztásban = Adaptive Decision-making in Supplier Selection

Herbert Simon, a korlátozott racionalitás elméletének megalkotója szerint a döntéshozatalunk hatékonyságát az határozza meg, hogy korlátozott kognitív kapacitásaink birtokában milyen stratégiákkal birkózunk meg a komplex környezet kihívásaival. Az erre az elméletre építő kutatások egyik alapvetése, hogy az egyéni problémamegoldási folyamat helyzetspecifikus és ez az idomulás kulcsfontosságú az eredményességben és hatékonyságban. A döntéshozó rendelkezik egy „adaptív szerszámosládával”, amelyből a megfelelő helyzetekben a megfelelő döntési eljárásokat választja. A tanulmányban a szerző egy kvalitatív kutatás eredményeire építve, a beszállítóválasztás példáján keresztül mutat be lehetséges válaszokat a keveset kutatott kérdésre: hogyan működik az adaptivitás folyamata? A tanulmány a döntési helyzethez való alkalmazkodás kialakulását vizsgálja a döntési folyamatok kognitív szintjén. ______ Herbert Simon, the author of theory of bounded rationality claimed that the results of our decision-making is defined by the approprietness of strategies with which we handle the complexity of the environment with our bounded cognitive capacities. One of the main issues or research programs building on this theory is that problem solving is situation-specific, and the adjustment of strategies to actual situational factors is crucial for the effectiveness and efficiency of decision-making. The decision-maker possesses an „adaptive toolbox”, from which he chooses the right decision tools in the right situations. The author, based on the findnings of a qualitative study, presents possible answers to the not well-elaborated question: how does the process of adaptivity work? Forming of an adaptive mechanism is in the focus.

Vezetői döntéshozatal és versenyképesség (The managerial decision making and the competitiveness)

A tanulmány a vezetői döntéshozatal három lényeges aspektusát tárja fel. A Versenyben a világgal c. kutatási program eredményei alapján arra lehet következtetni, hogy a menedzserek döntéshozatali képességei és megközelítései, a vállalati teljesítménymérés és menedzsment döntéseket támogató szerepe, valamint a vállalatok érintettekhez fűződő viszonya meghatározó lehet a hatékony vezetői döntéshozatal során. A vállalati döntéshozatal jellemzőinek bemutatása után megvizsgáljuk azt is, hogy a különböző teljesítményű cégek döntéseit mennyire támogatja a menedzserek felkészültsége, a teljesítménymérési gyakorlat és az érintettek elvárásai. A szerzők úgy találták, hogy a fenti tényezők mindegyike hozzájárul a hazai cégek versenyképességéhez, általánosságban ugyanis elmondható, hogy a döntéseket támogató vállalati környezet jobb üzleti teljesítményhez és gyorsabb reagálóképességhez vezethet. Az eredmények összegzése mellett ajánlásokkal is éltek a vállalatok számára, amelyek alkalmazásával hatékonyabb döntéseket hozhatnak. _______ This study presents three main aspects of the managerial decision making. Based on the results of the research program In competition with the World it points to the fact that decision making abilities and approaches of the managers, the corporate performance appraisal and the management decision support role, and the corporate relations to the stakeholders will be determinant in the process of the efficient managerial decision making. After presentation of characteristics of the corporate decision making the authors examine that how the decisions of enterprises with different performances are supported by the preparedness of the managers, the performance appraisal practice and the stakeholders expectations. The authors have thought that every factor contributes to the competitiveness of the domestic enterprises, and generally the decision supporting corporate environment can lead to better business performance and faster responsive abilities. Besides the results summary the authors give useful recommendations to the corporations with which they can make more efficient decisions.

Adaptív döntéshozatal a beszállítóválasztás példáján (Adaptive decision-making on example of the supplier selection)

Ez a tanulmány a projektvezetési szakirodalomban kialakult ismeretanyagot szem előtt tartva (noha tételesen nem hivatkozva arra) tárja fel azt a sajátos és tipikusnak nevezhető kontextust, amelyben a projektalapú szervezetek projektmarketing tevékenysége megnyilvánul. A tanulmány célja tehát nem magának a projektmarketingnek a kérdéskörére irányul, hanem elsősorban annak projektspecifikus kontextusára. Jellegét illetően a tanulmány spekulatív jellegű, vagyis lényegét tekintve nem empirikus kutatási eredményekből levont következtetésekre épül. _____ The author analyses the cognitive level of individual decisions by placing the adaptive decision-maker in the centre of interest. The main question is how do adaptive processes evolve and what factors determine the adaptive mechanism. The author builds on his own qualitative study conducted with the Grounded Theory Methodology in the SME sector. The supplier selection decision is chosen from the wide range of business decisions. From the research results the two elements of the adaptive mechanism – the metastructure and the attitude set –, the process of their evolution and the factors determining this process are presented. The findings here are a middle-range theory, which can be elaborated further, but they provide some interesting insights already.

Individual decision-making by top executives as a valuable resource for strategic management – A resource-based view and dynamic capability approach

Strategy is highly important for organisational success and the achievement of competitive advantage. Strategy is dynamic and it depends on accurate individual decision-making from medium and high-level managers and executives. Since managers always formulate strategy, its formulation depends mostly on their assertive decisions. Making good decisions is a complex task, even more in today’s business world where a large quantity of information and a dynamic environment forces people to decide without having complete information. As Shafir, Simonson, & Tversky (1993) point out, "the making of decisions, both big and small, is often difficult because of uncertainty and conflict". In this paper the author will explain a basic theoretical framework about top manager's individual decision-making, showing how complex the process of making high-impact decisions is; then, he will compare this theory with one of the most important streams in strategic management, the Resource-Based View (RBV) of the firm. Finally, within the context of individual decision-making and the RBV stream, the author will show how individual decision makers in top management positions constitute a valuable, rare, non-imitable and non-substitutable resource that provides sustained competitive advantage.

Deprofessionalization of curriculum decision -making

The purpose of this study was to analyze the evolution of Florida state level policy efforts and to assess the responding educational policy development and implementation at the local school district level. The focus of this study was the secondary language arts curriculum in Miami-Dade County Public Schools. ^ Data was collected using document analysis as a source of meaning making out of the language sets proffered by agencies at each level. A matrix was created based on Klein's levels of curriculum decision-making and Functional Process Theory categories of policy formation. The matrix allowed the researcher to code and classify specific information in terms accountability/high-stakes testing; authority; outside influences; and operational/structural organization. ^ Federal policy documents provided a background and impetus for much of what originated at the State level. The State then produced policy directives which were accepted by the District and specific policy directives and guidelines for practice. No evidence was found indicating the involvement of any other agencies in the development, transmission or implementation of the State level initiated policies. ^ After analyzing the evolutionary process, it became clear that state policy directives were never challenged or discussed. Rather, they were accepted as standards to be met and as such, school districts complied. Policy implementation is shown to be a top-down phenomenon. No evidence was found indicating a dialogue between state and local systems, rather the state, as the source of authority, issued specifically worded policy directives and the district complied. Finally, this study recognizes that outside influences play an important role in shaping the education reform policy in the state of Florida. The federal government, through NCLB and other initiatives created a climate which led almost naturally to the creation of the Florida A+ Plan. Similarly, the concern of the business community, always interested in the production of competent workers, continued to support efforts at raising the minimum skill level of Florida high school graduates. ^ Suggestions are made for future research including the examination of local school sites in order to assess the overall nature of the school experience rather than rely upon performance indicators mandated by state policy. ^

A decision support framework for infrastructure maintenance investment decision-making

Infrastructure management agencies are facing multiple challenges, including aging infrastructure, reduction in capacity of existing infrastructure, and availability of limited funds. Therefore, decision makers are required to think innovatively and develop inventive ways of using available funds. Maintenance investment decisions are generally made based on physical condition only. It is important to understand that spending money on public infrastructure is synonymous with spending money on people themselves. This also requires consideration of decision parameters, in addition to physical condition, such as strategic importance, socioeconomic contribution and infrastructure utilization. Consideration of multiple decision parameters for infrastructure maintenance investments can be beneficial in case of limited funding. Given this motivation, this dissertation presents a prototype decision support framework to evaluate trade-off, among competing infrastructures, that are candidates for infrastructure maintenance, repair and rehabilitation investments. Decision parameters' performances measured through various factors are combined to determine the integrated state of an infrastructure using Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT). The integrated state, cost and benefit estimates of probable maintenance actions are utilized alongside expert opinion to develop transition probability and reward matrices for each probable maintenance action for a particular candidate infrastructure. These matrices are then used as an input to the Markov Decision Process (MDP) for the finite-stage dynamic programming model to perform project (candidate)-level analysis to determine optimized maintenance strategies based on reward maximization. The outcomes of project (candidate)-level analysis are then utilized to perform network-level analysis taking the portfolio management approach to determine a suitable portfolio under budgetary constraints. The major decision support outcomes of the prototype framework include performance trend curves, decision logic maps, and a network-level maintenance investment plan for the upcoming years. The framework has been implemented with a set of bridges considered as a network with the assistance of the Pima County DOT, AZ. It is expected that the concept of this prototype framework can help infrastructure management agencies better manage their available funds for maintenance.

Deprofessionalization of curriculum decision-making

The purpose of this study was to analyze the evolution of Florida state level policy efforts and to assess the responding educational policy development and implementation at the local school district level. The focus of this study was the secondary language arts curriculum in Miami-Dade County Public Schools. Data was collected using document analysis as a source of meaning making out of the language sets proffered by agencies at each level. A matrix was created based on Klein's levels of curriculum decision-making and Functional Process Theory categories of policy formation. The matrix allowed the researcher to code and classify specific information in terms accountability/high-stakes testing; authority; outside influences; and operational/structural organization. Federal policy documents provided a background and impetus for much of what originated at the State level. The State then produced policy directives which were accepted by the District and specific policy directives and guidelines for practice. No evidence was found indicating the involvement of any other agencies in the development, transmission or implementation of the State level initiated policies. After analyzing the evolutionary process, it became clear that state policy directives were never challenged or discussed. Rather, they were accepted as standards to be met and as such, school districts complied. Policy implementation is shown to be a top-down phenomenon. No evidence was found indicating a dialogue between state and local systems, rather the state, as the source of authority, issued specifically worded policy directives and the district complied. Finally, this study recognizes that outside influences play an important role in shaping the education reform policy in the state of Florida. The federal government, through NCLB and other initiatives created a climate which led almost naturally to the creation of the Florida A+ Plan. Similarly, the concern of the business community, always interested in the production of competent workers, continued to support efforts at raising the minimum skill level of Florida high school graduates. Suggestions are made for future research including the examination of local school sites in order to assess the overall nature of the school experience rather than rely upon performance indicators mandated by state policy.

Location Privacy Preferences : A Survey-Based Analysis of Consumer Awareness, Trade-off and Decision-Making

Peer reviewed

Location Privacy Preferences : A Survey-Based Analysis of Consumer Awareness, Trade-off and Decision-Making

Peer reviewed

The Contribution of Structured Activity and Deliberate Play to the Development of Expert Perceptual and Decision-Making Skill

The developmental histories of 32 players in the Australian Football League (AFL), independently classified as either expert or less skilled in their perceptual and decision- making skills, were collected through a structured interview process and their year-on-year involvement in structured and deliberate play activities retrospectively determined. Despite being drawn from the same elite level of competition, the expert decision-makers differed from the less skilled in having accrued, during their developing years, more hours of experience in structured activities of all types, in structured activities in invasion-type sports, in invasion-type deliberate play, and in invasion activities from sports other than Australian football. Accumulated hours invested in invasion-type activities differentiated between the groups, suggesting that it is the amount of invasion-type activity that is experienced and not necessarily intent (skill development or fun) or specificity that facilitates the development of perceptual and decision-making expertise in this team sport.

The thinking doctor: clinical decision making in contemporary medicine

Diagnostic errors are responsible for a significant number of adverse events. Logical reasoning and good decision-making skills are key factors in reducing such errors, but little emphasis has traditionally been placed on how these thought processes occur, and how errors could be minimised. In this article, we explore key cognitive ideas that underpin clinical decision making and suggest that by employing some simple strategies, physicians might be better able to understand how they make decisions and how the process might be optimised.

A Collaborative Multiagent Framework based on Online Risk-Aware Planning and Decision-Making

Planning is an essential process in teams of multiple agents pursuing a common goal. When the effects of actions undertaken by agents are uncertain, evaluating the potential risk of such actions alongside their utility might lead to more rational decisions upon planning. This challenge has been recently tackled for single agent settings, yet domains with multiple agents that present diverse viewpoints towards risk still necessitate comprehensive decision making mechanisms that balance the utility and risk of actions. In this work, we propose a novel collaborative multi-agent planning framework that integrates (i) a team-level online planner under uncertainty that extends the classical UCT approximate algorithm, and (ii) a preference modeling and multicriteria group decision making approach that allows agents to find accepted and rational solutions for planning problems, predicated on the attitude each agent adopts towards risk. When utilised in risk-pervaded scenarios, the proposed framework can reduce the cost of reaching the common goal sought and increase effectiveness, before making collective decisions by appropriately balancing risk and utility of actions. 

Decision Making for Teams of Mobile Robots

In the past years, we could observe a significant amount of new robotic systems in science, industry, and everyday life. To reduce the complexity of these systems, the industry constructs robots that are designated for the execution of a specific task such as vacuum cleaning, autonomous driving, observation, or transportation operations. As a result, such robotic systems need to combine their capabilities to accomplish complex tasks that exceed the abilities of individual robots. However, to achieve emergent cooperative behavior, multi-robot systems require a decision process that copes with the communication challenges of the application domain. This work investigates a distributed multi-robot decision process, which addresses unreliable and transient communication. This process composed by five steps, which we embedded into the ALICA multi-agent coordination language guided by the PROViDE negotiation middleware. The first step encompasses the specification of the decision problem, which is an integral part of the ALICA implementation. In our decision process, we describe multi-robot problems by continuous nonlinear constraint satisfaction problems. The second step addresses the calculation of solution proposals for this problem specification. Here, we propose an efficient solution algorithm that integrates incomplete local search and interval propagation techniques into a satisfiability solver, which forms a satisfiability modulo theories (SMT) solver. In the third decision step, the PROViDE middleware replicates the solution proposals among the robots. This replication process is parameterized with a distribution method, which determines the consistency properties of the proposals. In a fourth step, we investigate the conflict resolution. Therefore, an acceptance method ensures that each robot supports one of the replicated proposals. As we integrated the conflict resolution into the replication process, a sound selection of the distribution and acceptance methods leads to an eventual convergence of the robot proposals. In order to avoid the execution of conflicting proposals, the last step comprises a decision method, which selects a proposal for implementation in case the conflict resolution fails. The evaluation of our work shows that the usage of incomplete solution techniques of the constraint satisfaction solver outperforms the runtime of other state-of-the-art approaches for many typical robotic problems. We further show by experimental setups and practical application in the RoboCup environment that our decision process is suitable for making quick decisions in the presence of packet loss and delay. Moreover, PROViDE requires less memory and bandwidth compared to other state-of-the-art middleware approaches.

Choosing best components for an amputee: a methodology for the best decision-making

Introduction - The harmony between the stump and the prosthesis is critical to allow it to fulfill its function enabling an efficient gait. A well fitted socket, with an efficient and comfortable suspension, allows the amputee to continue their daily living activities, maintaining the stump functional, making this correlation between socket and suspension very important in the functionality of the prosthesis, mobility and overall satisfaction with the device. Of our knowledge, the quantitative correlation between all of these factors as not yet been assessed. The objective of this study is to verify and confirm the process of decision-making for four different trans-tibial prostheses with suspension systems: Hypobaric(A), PIN(B), Classic Suction(C) and Vacuum Active –VASS(D) according data provided by gait efficiency (mlO2/kg/m) imagiology (pistonning) and amputee perception.

Understanding information use in multiattribute decision making

An inference task in one in which some known set of information is used to produce an estimate about an unknown quantity. Existing theories of how humans make inferences include specialized heuristics that allow people to make these inferences in familiar environments quickly and without unnecessarily complex computation. Specialized heuristic processing may be unnecessary, however; other research suggests that the same patterns in judgment can be explained by existing patterns in encoding and retrieving memories. This dissertation compares and attempts to reconcile three alternate explanations of human inference. After justifying three hierarchical Bayesian version of existing inference models, the three models are com- pared on simulated, observed, and experimental data. The results suggest that the three models capture different patterns in human behavior but, based on posterior prediction using laboratory data, potentially ignore important determinants of the decision process.