Uncertainty Characterization Of A Conceptual Rainfall-Runoff Model By Using Grey Numbers

A procedure for characterizing global uncertainty of a rainfall-runoff simulation model based on using grey numbers is presented. By using the grey numbers technique the uncertainty is characterized by an interval; once the parameters of the rainfall-runoff model have been properly defined as grey numbers, by using the grey mathematics and functions it is possible to obtain simulated discharges in the form of grey numbers whose envelope defines a band which represents the vagueness/uncertainty associated with the simulated variable. The grey numbers representing the model parameters are estimated in such a way that the band obtained from the envelope of simulated grey discharges includes an assigned percentage of observed discharge values and is at the same time as narrow as possible. The approach is applied to a real case study highlighting that a rigorous application of the procedure for direct simulation through the rainfall-runoff model with grey parameters involves long computational times. However, these times can be significantly reduced using a simplified computing procedure with minimal approximations in the quantification of the grey numbers representing the simulated discharges. Relying on this simplified procedure, the conceptual rainfall-runoff grey model is thus calibrated and the uncertainty bands obtained both downstream of the calibration process and downstream of the validation process are compared with those obtained by using a well-established approach, like the GLUE approach, for characterizing uncertainty. The results of the comparison show that the proposed approach may represent a valid tool for characterizing the global uncertainty associable with the output of a rainfall-runoff simulation model.

Laws of large numbers for non-additive probabilities

We apply the concept of exchangeable random variables to the case of non-additive robability distributions exhibiting ncertainty aversion, and in the lass generated bya convex core convex non-additive probabilities, ith a convex core). We are able to rove two versions of the law of arge numbers (de Finetti's heorems). By making use of two efinitions. of independence we rove two versions of the strong law f large numbers. It turns out that e cannot assure the convergence of he sample averages to a constant. e then modal the case there is a true" probability distribution ehind the successive realizations of the uncertain random variable. In this case convergence occurs. This result is important because it renders true the intuition that it is possible "to learn" the "true" additive distribution behind an uncertain event if one repeatedly observes it (a sufficiently large number of times). We also provide a conjecture regarding the "Iearning" (or updating) process above, and prove a partia I result for the case of Dempster-Shafer updating rule and binomial trials.

A importância da gestão de marketing em empresa inovadora: estudo de empresa do Prime - Programa Primeira Empresa Inovadora

As pesquisas demonstram que empresas nascentes, mesmo aquelas que possuem produtos, processos ou serviços inovadores, novos ao mercado, têm muita dificuldade em permanecer com suas portas abertas nos primeiros dois anos, ou seja, a grande maioria das empresas encerra suas atividades antes de completar dois anos de existência. Diante deste fato, este estudo investiga a importância da gestão em Marketing nas empresas inovadoras com a finalidade de obter sucesso na inserção de produto, serviço ou processo em mercado altamente competitivo (PRIME, 2010). O estudo é fundamentado por uma seção empírica, baseada em pesquisa bibliográfica, documental e de campo, além da realização de estudo de caso que procurou tratar de alguns aspectos de Marketing em empresa beneficiária do PRIME – Programa Primeira Empresa Inovadora, que é um programa de Subvenção Econômica do Governo Federal, lançado pela Financiadora de Estudos e Projetos (FINEP), uma empresa pública vinculada ao Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovação (MCTI). Neste estudo foi verificado que uma estratégia de Marketing consciente e eficaz influencia o sucesso competitivo de empresas inovadoras, através de produto ou serviço diferenciado para inserção no mercado.

The corporate financial effects of corporate social responsibility, as executed by, and impacted upon, Prime Bank Limited, Bangladesh

Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) is being implemented in the corporate world at an ever increasing rate, benefitting societies around the world. Several theories have been proposed that contend that the corporations who are implementing CSR programs also benefit financially, making the relationship a symbiotic one. This paper analyzes the financial health of Prime Bank Limited, Bangladesh, (PBL) over a period of a decade in order to determine if PBL has indeed benefited financially from implementing its CSR program. The analysis focuses on examining PBL’s internal and external financial indicators over an extended period of time to determine what the net effect, if any, that the CSR program has had on them. This analysis concludes that the evidence does not support the claim of a causal relationship between CSR spending and positive effects upon PBL, as measured by PBL’s financial indicators.

Neuroscience and education: prime time to build the bridge

As neuroscience gains social traction and entices media attention, the notion that education has much to benefit from brain research becomes increasingly popular. However, it has been argued that the fundamental bridge toward education is cognitive psychology, not neuroscience. We discuss four specific cases in which neuroscience synergizes with other disciplines to serve education, ranging from very general physiological aspects of human learning such as nutrition, exercise and sleep, to brain architectures that shape the way we acquire language and reading, and neuroscience tools that increasingly allow the early detection of cognitive deficits, especially in preverbal infants. Neuroscience methods, tools and theoretical frameworks have broadened our understanding of the mind in a way that is highly relevant to educational practice. Although the bridge’s cement is still fresh, we argue why it is prime time to march over it.

Comparison of microbial numbers in soils by using various culture media and temperatures

The influence of different media and incubation temperatures on the quantification of microbial populations in sorghum, eucalyptus and forest soils was evaluated. Microbial growth was compared by using complex (tryptone soybean agar, TSA, casein-starch, CS, and Martin) and saline (Thorton, M3, Czapeck) media and incubation temperatures of 25 and 30° C. Higher numbers of total bacterial. and fungal colony-forming units (CFU) were observed in sorghum soils, and of spore-forming and Gram-negative bacteria in forest soils than other soils. Actinomycetes counts were highest in forest soil when using CS medium at 30° C and in sorghum soil at 25° C in M3 medium. Microorganism counts were dependent on the media and incubation temperatures. The counts at temperatures of 30° C were significantly higher than at 25° C. Microbial quantification was best when using TSA medium for total. and spore-forming bacteria, Thorton for Gram-negative bacteria, M3 for actinomycetes, and Martin for fungi. © 2005 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Computations of the flow past a still sphere at moderate reynolds numbers using an immersed boundary method

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

An Extension of Craig's Family of Lattices

Let p be a prime, and let zeta(p) be a primitive p-th root of unity. The lattices in Craig's family are (p - 1)-dimensional and are geometrical representations of the integral Z[zeta(p)]-ideals < 1 - zeta(p)>(i), where i is a positive integer. This lattice construction technique is a powerful one. Indeed, in dimensions p - 1 where 149 <= p <= 3001, Craig's lattices are the densest packings known. Motivated by this, we construct (p - 1)(q - 1)-dimensional lattices from the integral Z[zeta(pq)]-ideals < 1 - zeta(p)>(i) < 1 - zeta(q)>(j), where p and q are distinct primes and i and fare positive integers. In terms of sphere-packing density, the new lattices and those in Craig's family have the same asymptotic behavior. In conclusion, Craig's family is greatly extended while preserving its sphere-packing properties.

Exact static soliton solutions of (3+1)-dimensional integrable theory with nonzero Hopf numbers

In this paper, we explicitly construct an infinite number of Hopfions (static, soliton solutions with nonzero Hopf topological charges) within the recently proposed (3 + 1)-dimensional, integrable, and relativistically invariant field theory. Two integers label the family of Hopfions we have found. Their product is equal to the Hopf charge which provides a lower bound to the soliton's finite energy. The Hopfions are explicitly constructed in terms of the toroidal coordinates and shown to have a form of linked closed vortices.

Free actions of abelian p-groups on the n-torus

In this work we make some contributions to the theory of actions of abelian p-groups on the n-Torus T-n. Set congruent to Z(pk1)(h1) x Z(pk2)(h2) x...x Z(pkr)(hr), r >= 1, k(1) >= k(2) >=...>= k(r) >= 1, p prime. Suppose that the group H acts freely on T-n and the induced representation on pi(1)(T-n) congruent to Z(n) is faithful and has first Betti number b. We show that the numbers n, p, b, k(i) and h(i) (i = 1,..,r) satisfy some relation. In particular, when H congruent to Z(p)(h), the minimum value of n is phi(p) + b when b >= 1. Also when H congruent to Z(pk1) x Z(p) the minimum value of n is phi(p(k1)) + p - 1 + b for b >= 1. Here phi denotes the Euler function.

Distribution and insertion numbers of transposable elements in species of the Drosophila saltans group

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)