973 resultados para Prediction theory


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This paper discusses how the exploration of social texts and historical contexts from the global 'South', as put forward in Raewyn Connell's study 'Southern Theory' (2007), can improve the theoretical tools used in postcolonial education analysis. Connell analyses a selection of excellent and compelling social theory texts written by scholars in Africa, India, Iran, Latin America and Australia to show how they challenge and counter the silences, distortions and plain lies of dominant Western social theory. These texts of the global South do not mince words in laying bare the role of the institutions and elites of the West in the destruction, dispossession, and bloodshed involved in creating the world in which we live, and in perpetuating its catastrophes. The texts also reveal intense debates between scholars over their conceptualisations of local, national and global society. My paper argues that this kind of work is of vital importance to postcolonial studies in education. It helps education scholars to uncover the problematic assumptions and distortions of dominant education thought, and understand different ways of seeing. Postcolonial educators could use this to help both students and teacher unlearn many of our taught perceptions of the world, whether in the global North or the global South. Developing a countervailing social theory in education would sharpen our questioning of the structures of schooling as they relate to society, and tease out new dimensions of postcolonial leadership for education.

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In December 2007, random roadside drug testing commenced in Queensland, Australia. Subsequently, the aim of this study was to explore the preliminary impact of Queensland’s drug driving legislation and enforcement techniques by applying Stafford and Warr’s [Stafford, M. C., & Warr, M. (1993). A reconceptualization of general and specific deterrence. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, 30, 123-135] reconceptualization of deterrence theory. Completing a comprehensive drug driving questionnaire were 899 members of the public, university students, and individuals referred to a drug diversion program. Of note was that approximately a fifth of participants reported drug driving in the past six months. Additionally, the analysis indicated that punishment avoidance and vicarious punishment avoidance were predictors of the propensity to drug drive in the future. In contrast, there were indications that knowing of others apprehended for drug driving was not a sufficient deterrent. Sustained testing and publicity of the legislation and countermeasure appears needed to increase the deterrent impact for drug driving.

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The purpose of this study is to investigate how secondary school media educators might best meet the needs of students who prefer practical production work to ‘theory’ work in media studies classrooms. This is a significant problem for a curriculum area that claims to develop students’ media literacies by providing them with critical frameworks and a metalanguage for thinking about the media. It is a problem that seems to have become more urgent with the availability of new media technologies and forms like video games. The study is located in the field of media education, which tends to draw on structuralist understandings of the relationships between young people and media and suggests that students can be empowered to resist media’s persuasive discourses. Recent theoretical developments suggest too little emphasis has been placed on the participatory aspects of young people playing with, creating and gaining pleasure from media. This study contributes to this ‘participatory’ approach by bringing post structuralist perspectives to the field, which have been absent from studies of secondary school media education. I suggest theories of media learning must take account of the ongoing formation of students’ subjectivities as they negotiate social, cultural and educational norms. Michel Foucault’s theory of ‘technologies of the self’ and Judith Butler’s theories of performativity and recognition are used to develop an argument that media learning occurs in the context of students negotiating various ‘ethical systems’ as they establish their social viability through achieving recognition within communities of practice. The concept of ‘ethical systems’ has been developed for this study by drawing on Foucault’s theories of discourse and ‘truth regimes’ and Butler’s updating of Althusser’s theory of interpellation. This post structuralist approach makes it possible to investigate the ways in which students productively repeat and vary norms to creatively ‘do’ and ‘undo’ the various media learning activities with which they are required to engage. The study focuses on a group of year ten students in an all boys’ Catholic urban school in Australia who undertook learning about video games in a three-week intensive ‘immersion’ program. The analysis examines the ethical systems operating in the classroom, including formal systems of schooling, informal systems of popular cultural practice and systems of masculinity. It also examines the students’ use of semiotic resources to repeat and/or vary norms while reflecting on, discussing, designing and producing video games. The key findings of the study are that students are motivated to learn technology skills and production processes rather than ‘theory’ work. This motivation stems from the students’ desire to become recognisable in communities of technological and masculine practice. However, student agency is not only possible through critical responses to media, but through performative variation of norms through creative ethical practices as students participate with new media technologies. Therefore, the opportunities exist for media educators to create the conditions for variation of norms through production activities. The study offers several implications for media education theory and practice including: the productive possibilities of post structuralism for informing ways of doing media education; the importance of media teachers having the autonomy to creatively plan curriculum; the advantages of media and technology teachers collaborating to draw on a broad range of resources to develop curriculum; the benefits of placing more emphasis on students’ creative uses of media; and the advantages of blending formal classroom approaches to media education with less formal out of school experiences.

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Event-specific scales commonly have greater power than generalized scales in prediction of specific disorders and in testing mediator models for predicting such disorders. Therefore, in a preliminary study, a 6-item Alcohol Helplessness Scale was constructed and found to be reliable for a sample of 98 problem drinkers. Hierarchical multiple regression and its derivative path analysis were used to test whether helplessness and self-efficacy moderate or mediate the link between alcohol dependence and depression, A test of a moderation model was not supported, whereas a test of a mediation model was supported. Helplessness and self-efficacy both significantly and independently mediated between alcohol dependence and depression. Nevertheless, a significant direct effect of alcohol dependence on depression also remained.

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This study examined the utility of self-efficacy as a predictor of social activity and mood control in multiple sclerosis (MS). Seventy-one subjects with MS were recruited from people attending an MS centre or from a mailing list and were examined on two occasions that were two months apart. Clinic patients were more disabled than patients who completed assessments by post, but they were of higher socioeconomic status and were less dysphoric. We attempted to predict self-reported performance of mood control and social activity at two months, from self-efficacy or performance on these tasks at pretest. Demographic variables, disorder status, disability, self-esteem and depression were also allowed to compete for entry into multiple regressions. Substantial stability in mood, performance and disability was observed over the two months. In both mood control and social activity, past performance was the strongest predictor of later performance, but self-efficacy also contributed significantly to the prediction. The disability level entered a prediction of socila activity, but no other variables predicted either type of performance. A secondary analysis predicting self-esteem at two months also included self-efficacy for social activity, illustrating the contribution of perceived capability to later assessments of self-worth. The study provided support for self-efficacy as a predictor of later behavioural outcomes and self-esteem in multiple sclerosis.

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Vertebrplasty involved injecting cement into a fractured vertebra to provide stabilisation. There is clinical evidence to suggest however that vertebroplasty may be assocated with a higher risk of adjacent vertebral fracture; which may be due to the change in material properties of the post-procedure vertebra modifying the transmission of mechanical stresses to adjacent vertebrae.

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This study explored the role of donor prototype evaluations (perceptions of the typical organ donor) in organ donation communication decisions using an extended theory of planned behaviour (TPB) model. The model incorporated attitude, subjective norm, perceived behavioural control, moral norm, self-identity, and donor prototype evaluations to predict intentions to record consent on an organ donor register and discuss the organ donation decision with significant others. Participants completed surveys assessing the extended TPB constructs related to registering (n = 359) and discussing (n = 282). Results supported a role for donor prototype evaluations in predicting discussing intentions only. Both extended TPB structural equation models were a good fit to the data, accounting for 74 and 76% of the variance in registering and discussing intentions, respectively. Participants’ self-reported discussing behaviour (but not registering behaviour given low numbers of behavioural performers) was assessed 4 weeks later, with discussing intention as the only significant predictor of behaviour (Nagelkerke R2 = 0.11). These findings highlight the impact of people's perceptions of a typical donor on their decisions to discuss their organ donation preference, assisting our understanding of the factors influencing individuals' communication processes in efforts to bridge the gap between organ supply and demand.

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The discourse surrounding recent Aboriginal social policy regularly refers to pragmatism and partnership. In a simpler world, we might call this ‘getting things done with Aboriginal people.’ To that extent, the discourse draws on an indisputable common sense, and it is not surprising that a variety of political agendas can be packaged within such language. While many things need to be done, the quantity and particularly the quality of social networks required to take effective policy into effective practice is something we ought to consider more carefully. This is where the concept of social capital could be useful, since it focuses attention on the social resources required to construct social policy, as well as the social resources that could be produced by effective social policy. Partnerships and pragmatism are therefore related at a most fundamental level in terms of social policy. We question whether this important conceptual bedrock has been fully explored. Hence we review here some recent ‘big plans’ for Aboriginal Australia, and ask whether the size of the theory matches the size of the plans.

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Examined findings (e.g., A. J. Yates and J. Thain [see PA, Vol 73:28269]) that suggest that perceived social support for attempts to quit smoking is a determinant of self-efficacy (SE). 102 adults (aged 18–71 yrs) who participated in a trial of 4 smoking interventions were studied over a 10-mo follow-up period. The study attested to the validity of SE as a predictor of sustained success from an attempt to stop smoking. The tendency for SE theory to be more strongly supported in the longer term was highly consistent with the proposed mechanism for SE effects. The absence of a relationship with perceived social support might be an advantage for SE, since support was a poor predictor of outcomes during follow-up. Results suggest that perceived social influences had less utility than personal skills and SE in predicting sustained non-smoking outcomes.

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Tested a social–cognitive model of depressive episodes and their treatment within a predictive study of treatment response. 42 clinically depressed volunteers (aged 22–60 yrs) were given self-efficacy (SE) questionnaires and other measures before and after treatment with cognitive therapy. Results support the idea that SE and skills regarding control of negative cognition mediates a sustained response to cognitive treatment for depression. Not only did mood-control variables correlate highly with concurrent changes in depression scores during treatment, but the posttreatment SE measure discriminated Ss who relapsed over the next 12 mo.

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The aim of this paper is to show how principles of ecological psychology and dynamical systems theory can underpin a philosophy of coaching practice in a nonlinear pedagogy. Nonlinear pedagogy is based on a view of the human movement system as a nonlinear dynamical system. We demonstrate how this perspective of the human movement system can aid understanding of skill acquisition processes and underpin practice for sports coaches. We provide a description of nonlinear pedagogy followed by a consideration of some of the fundamental principles of ecological psychology and dynamical systems theory that underpin it as a coaching philosophy. We illustrate how each principle impacts on nonlinear pedagogical coaching practice, demonstrating how each principle can substantiate a framework for the coaching process.

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There are various principles for layout design such as balance, rhythm, unity and harmony, but each principle has often been introduced as a separate concept rather than within an integrated and systematic structure, so that designers and design students have to keep practices for the acquisition of skills. The paper seeks to develop a conceptual framework for a systematic mapping of layout design principles by using Yin and Yang and the Five Elements. Yin and Yang theory explains all natural phenomena with its own conceptual model and facilitates finding harmony and balance between the visual elements in terms of systematic and organic relations. Most common and well-known layout design principles are defined with 10 different resources such as design books and articles, and have been remapped following with the structure of Yin and Yang and the Five Elements. A systematic framework explaining the relationships of design principles was created and 32 design students participated in its efficiency test. The outcome suggests there is a high possibility that the framework can be used in professional fields and design education.

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This chapter will address psychodynamic, cognitive-behavioural, and developmental models in supervision by initially considering the historical underpinnings of each and then examining in turn some of the key processes that are evident in the supervisory relationships. Case studies are included where appropriate to highlight the application of theory to practice and several processes are fully elaborated over all models to enable a contemporary view of style and substance in the supervision context.

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Many interesting phenomena have been observed in layers of granular materials subjected to vertical oscillations; these include the formation of a variety of standing wave patterns, and the occurrence of isolated features called oscillons, which alternately form conical heaps and craters oscillating at one-half of the forcing frequency. No continuum-based explanation of these phenomena has previously been proposed. We apply a continuum theory, termed the double-shearing theory, which has had success in analyzing various problems in the flow of granular materials, to the problem of a layer of granular material on a vertically vibrating rigid base undergoing vertical oscillations in plane strain. There exists a trivial solution in which the layer moves as a rigid body. By investigating linear perturbations of this solution, we find that at certain amplitudes and frequencies this trivial solution can bifurcate. The time dependence of the perturbed solution is governed by Mathieu’s equation, which allows stable, unstable and periodic solutions, and the observed period-doubling behaviour. Several solutions for the spatial velocity distribution are obtained; these include one in which the surface undergoes vertical velocities that have sinusoidal dependence on the horizontal space dimension, which corresponds to the formation of striped standing waves, and is one of the observed patterns. An alternative continuum theory of granular material mechanics, in which the principal axes of stress and rate-of-deformation are coincident, is shown to be incapable of giving rise to similar instabilities.