Asset renewal decision modelling with application to the water utility industry

Reliable infrastructure assets impact significantly on quality of life and provide a stable foundation for economic growth and competitiveness. Decisions about the way assets are managed are of utmost importance in achieving this. Timely renewal of infrastructure assets supports reliability and maximum utilisation of infrastructure and enables business and community to grow and prosper. This research initially examined a framework for asset management decisions and then focused on asset renewal optimisation and renewal engineering optimisation in depth. This study had four primary objectives. The first was to develop a new Asset Management Decision Framework (AMDF) for identifying and classifying asset management decisions. The AMDF was developed by applying multi-criteria decision theory, classical management theory and life cycle management. The AMDF is an original and innovative contribution to asset management in that: · it is the first framework to provide guidance for developing asset management decision criteria based on fundamental business objectives; · it is the first framework to provide a decision context identification and analysis process for asset management decisions; and · it is the only comprehensive listing of asset management decision types developed from first principles. The second objective of this research was to develop a novel multi-attribute Asset Renewal Decision Model (ARDM) that takes account of financial, customer service, health and safety, environmental and socio-economic objectives. The unique feature of this ARDM is that it is the only model to optimise timing of asset renewal with respect to fundamental business objectives. The third objective of this research was to develop a novel Renewal Engineering Decision Model (REDM) that uses multiple criteria to determine the optimal timing for renewal engineering. The unique features of this model are that: · it is a novel extension to existing real options valuation models in that it uses overall utility rather than present value of cash flows to model engineering value; and · it is the only REDM that optimises timing of renewal engineering with respect to fundamental business objectives; The final objective was to develop and validate an Asset Renewal Engineering Philosophy (AREP) consisting of three principles of asset renewal engineering. The principles were validated using a novel application of real options theory. The AREP is the only renewal engineering philosophy in existence. The original contributions of this research are expected to enrich the body of knowledge in asset management through effectively addressing the need for an asset management decision framework, asset renewal and renewal engineering optimisation based on fundamental business objectives and a novel renewal engineering philosophy.

The impact of taxes on optimal portfolio choice : an Australian study

Taxes are an important component of investing that is commonly overlooked in both the literature and in practice. For example, many understand that taxes will reduce an investment’s return, but less understood is the risk-sharing nature of taxes that also reduces the investment’s risk. This thesis examines how taxes affect the optimal asset allocation and asset location decision in an Australian environment. It advances the model of Horan & Al Zaman (2008), improving the method by which the present value of tax liabilities are calculated, by using an after-tax risk-free discount rate, and incorporating any new or reduced tax liabilities generated into its expected risk and return estimates. The asset allocation problem is examined for a range of different scenarios using Australian parameters, including different risk aversion levels, personal marginal tax rates, investment horizons, borrowing premiums, high or low inflation environments, and different starting cost bases. The findings support the Horan & Al Zaman (2008) conclusion that equities should be held in the taxable account. In fact, these findings are strengthened with most of the efficient frontier maximising equity holdings in the taxable account instead of only half. Furthermore, these findings transfer to the Australian case, where it is found that taxed Australian investors should always invest into equities first through the taxable account before investing in super. However, untaxed Australian investors should invest their equity first through superannuation. With borrowings allowed in the taxable account (no borrowing premium), Australian taxed investors should hold 100% of the superannuation account in the risk-free asset, while undertaking leverage in the taxable account to achieve the desired risk-return. Introducing a borrowing premium decreases the likelihood of holding 100% of super in the risk-free asset for taxable investors. The findings also suggest that the higher the marginal tax rate, the higher the borrowing premium in order to overcome this effect. Finally, as the investor’s marginal tax rate increases, the overall allocation to equities should increase due to the increased risk and return sharing caused by taxation, and in order to achieve the same risk/return level as the lower taxation level, the investor must take on more equity exposure. The investment horizon has a minimal impact on the optimal allocation decision in the absence of factors such as mean reversion and human capital.

Embedded tax liabilities and portfolio choice

his study presents an improved method of dealing with embedded tax liabilities in portfolio choice. We argue that using a risk-free discount rate is appropriate for calculating the present value of future tax liabilities. Supportive of recent research, our results found a taxation-induced preference of holding equities over bonds, and a location preference of holding equities in the taxable account and bonds in retirement accounts. These important findings contrast with traditional investment advice which suggests a greater capacity for risk in retirement accounts.

Essays on volatility and liquidity in financial markets

The price formation of financial assets is a complex process. It extends beyond the standard economic paradigm of supply and demand to the understanding of the dynamic behavior of price variability, the price impact of information, and the implications of trading behavior of market participants on prices. In this thesis, I study aggregate market and individual assets volatility, liquidity dimensions, and causes of mispricing for US equities over a recent sample period. How volatility forecasts are modeled, what determines intradaily jumps and causes changes in intradaily volatility and what drives the premium of traded equity indexes? Are they induced, for example, by the information content of lagged volatility and return parameters or by macroeconomic news, changes in liquidity and volatility? Besides satisfying our intellectual curiosity, answers to these questions are of direct importance to investors developing trading strategies, policy makers evaluating macroeconomic policies and to arbitrageurs exploiting mispricing in exchange-traded funds. Results show that the leverage effect and lagged absolute returns improve forecasts of continuous components of daily realized volatility as well as jumps. Implied volatility does not subsume the information content of lagged returns in forecasting realized volatility and its components. The reported results are linked to the heterogeneous market hypothesis and demonstrate the validity of extending the hypothesis to returns. Depth shocks, signed order flow, the number of trades, and resiliency are the most important determinants of intradaily volatility. In contrast, spread shock and resiliency are predictive of signed intradaily jumps. There are fewer macroeconomic news announcement surprises that cause extreme price movements or jumps than those that elevate intradaily volatility. Finally, the premium of exchange-traded funds is significantly associated with momentum in net asset value and a number of liquidity parameters including the spread, traded volume, and illiquidity. The mispricing of industry exchange traded funds suggest that limits to arbitrage are driven by potential illiquidity.

Strategies and solutions for housing sustainability : building information files and performance certificates

The overall aim of this research project was to provide a broader range of value propositions (beyond upfront traditional construction costs) that could transform both the demand side and supply side of the housing industry. The project involved gathering information about how building information is created, used and communicated and classifying building information, leading to the formation of an Information Flow Chart and Stakeholder Relationship Map. These were then tested via broad housing industry focus groups and surveys. The project revealed four key relationships that appear to operate in isolation to the whole housing sector and may have significant impact on the sustainability outcomes and life cycle costs of dwellings over their life cycle. It also found that although a lot of information about individual dwellings does already exist, this information is not coordinated or inventoried in any systematic manner and that national building information files of building passports would present value to a wide range of stakeholders.

Basic finance made accessible in Excel 2007 : "the big 5, plus 2"

The basic principles and equations are developed for elementary finance, based on the concept of compound interest. The five quantities of interest in such problems are present value, future value, amount of periodic payment, number of periods and the rate of interest per period. We consider three distinct means of computing each of these five quantities in Excel 2007: (i) use of algebraic equations, (ii) by recursive schedule and the Goal Seek facility, and (iii) use of Excel's intrinsic financial functions. The paper is intended to be used as the basis for a lesson plan and contains many examples and solved problems. Comment is made regarding the relative difficulty of each approach, and a prominent theme is the systematic use of more than one method to increase student understanding and build confidence in the answer obtained. Full instructions to build each type of model are given and a complete set of examples and solutions may be downloaded (Examples.xlsx and Solutions.xlsx).

Teaching basic finance with Excel, and without pain

The five quantities of interest in elementary finance problems are present value, future value, amount of periodic payment, number of periods and the rate of compound interest per period. A recursive approach to computing each of these five quantities in a modern version of Excel, for the case of ordinary annuities, is described. The aim is to increase student understanding and build confidence in the answer obtained, and this may be achieved with only linear relationships and in cases where student knowledge of algebra is essentially zero. Annuity problems may be solved without use of logarithms and black-box intrinsic functions; these being used only as check mechanisms. The author has had success with the method at Bond University and surrounding high schools in Queensland, Australia.

Addressing factory needs in cane variety selection

Cane fibre content has increased over the past ten years. Some of that increase can be attributed to new varieties selected for release. This paper reviews the existing methods for quantifying the fibre characteristics of a variety, including fibre content and fibre quality measurements – shear strength, impact resistance and short fibre content. The variety selection process is presented and it is reported that fibre content has zero weighting in the current selection index. An updated variety selection approach is proposed, potentially replacing the existing selection process relating to fibre. This alternative approach involves the use of a more complex mill area level model that accounts for harvesting, transport and processing equipment, taking into account capacity, efficiency and operational impacts, along with the end use for the bagasse. The approach will ultimately determine a net economic value for the variety. The methodology lends itself to a determination of the fibre properties that have a significant impact on the economic value so that variety tests can better target the critical properties. A low-pressure compression test is proposed as a good test to provide an assessment of the impact of a variety on milling capacity. NIR methodology is proposed as a technology to lead to a more rapid assessment of fibre properties, and hence the opportunity to more comprehensively test for fibre impacts at an earlier stage of variety development.

Where to from Brahmans in the Northern Australian herd? Maintaining the economic benefit of earlier infusions of Bos indicus.

The economic performance of a terminal crossbreeding system based on Brahman cows and a tropically adapted composite herd were compared to a straightbred Brahman herd. All systems were targeted to meet specifications of the grass-finished Japanese market. The production system modelled represented a typical individual central Queensland integrated breeding/finishing enterprise or a northern Australian vertically integrated enterprise with separate breeding and finishing properties. Due mainly to a reduced age of turnoff of Crossbred and Composite sale animals and an improved weaning rate in the Composite herd, Crossbred and Composite herds returned a gross margin of $7 and $24 per Adult Equivalent (AE) respectively above that of the Brahman herd. The benefits of changing 25% of the existing 85% of Brahmans in the northern Australian herd to either Crossbreds or Composites over a 10-year period were also examined. With no premium for carcass quality in Crossbred and Composite sale animals, annual benefits were $16 M and $61 M for Crossbreds and Composites in 2013. The cumulative Present Value (PV) of this shift over the 10-year period was $88 M and $342 M respectively, discounted at 7%. When a 5c per kg premium for carcass quality was included, differences in annual benefits rose to $30 M and $75 M and cumulative PVs to $168 M and $421 M for Crossbreds and Composites respectively.

Kymijoen vaelluskalojen nousureittien avaamisen kustannusten ja hyötyjen arviointi

The objective of this thesis is to evaluate different means of increasing natural reproduction of migratory fish, especially salmon, in the river Kymijoki. The original stocks of migratory fish in Kymijoki were lost by the 1950s because of hydropower plants and worsened quality of water in the river. Nowadays the salmon stocks is based on hatchery-reared fish, even though there is significant potential of natural smolt production in the river. The main problem in the natural reproduction is that the migratory fish cannot ascend to the reproduction areas above the Korkeakoski and Koivukoski hydropower plants. In this thesis alternative projects which aim to open these ascencion routes and their costs and benefits are evaluated. The method used in the evaluation is social cost-benefit analysis. The alternative projects evaluated in this thesis consist of projects that aim to change the flow patterns between the eastern branches of Kymijoki and projects that involve building a fish ladder. Also different combinations of these projects are considered. The objective of this thesis is to find the project that is the most profitable to execute; this evaluation can be done in comparing the net present values of the projects. In addition to this, a sensitivity analysis will be made on the parameter values that are most uncertain. We compare the net present values of the projects with the net present values of hatchery-reared smolt releases, so we can evaluate, if the projects or the smolt releases are more socially profitable in the long term. The results of this thesis indicate that especially the projects that involve building a fish ladder next to the Korkeakoski hydropower plant are the most socially profitable. If this fish ladder would be built, the natural reproduction of salmon in the Kymijoki river could become so extensive, that hatchery-reared smolt releases could even be stopped. The results of the sensivity analysis indicate that the net present values of the projects depend especially on the initial smolt survival rate of wild salmon and the functioning of the potential fish ladder in Korkeakoski. Also the changes of other parameter values influence the results of the cost-benefit analysis, but not as significantly. When the net present values of the projects and the smolt releases are compared, the results depend on which period of time is selected to count the average catches of reared salmon. If the average of the last 5 years catches is used in counting the net benefits of smolt releases, all the alternative projects are more profitable than the releases. When the average of the last 10 years is used, only building of the fish ladder in Korkeakoski and all the project combinations are more profitable than the smolt releases.

Metsän erirakenteisuutta edistävien hakkuiden kannattavuustarkastelu metsäaluetasolla

Tutkimuksessa vertailtiin metsän erirakenteisuutta edistävien poimintahakkuiden ja pienaukkohakkuiden kannattavuutta metsänhoitosuositusten mukaiseen metsänkasvatukseen Keski-Suomessa. Poimintahakkuut ja pienaukkohakkuut ovat menetelmiä, joilla voidaan lisätä luonnonmetsän häiriödynamiikan mukaista pienipiirteistä elinympäristöjen vaihtelua ja siksi ne sopivat etenkin erityiskohteisiin monimuotoisuuden, maiseman tai metsien monikäytön vuoksi. Ne johtavat yleensä vähitellen eri-ikäisrakenteiseen metsään, jossa puuston läpimittaluokkajakauma muistuttaa käänteistä J-kirjainta. Eri-ikäisrakenteisen metsänkäsittelyn taloudellista kannattavuutta puoltavat uudistumiskustannusten poisjäänti ja tukkipuihin painottuvat säännöllisin väliajoin toteutuvat hakkuut. Menetelmän soveltumista Suomen olosuhteisiin pidetään kuitenkin epävarmana. Tässä tutkimuksessa tarkasteltiin tasaikäisrakenteisen metsän muuttamista eri-ikäisrakenteiseksi 40 vuoden siirtymäaikana Metsähallituksen hallinnoimassa Isojäven ympäristöarvometsässä Kuhmoisissa. Tutkimusaineisto koostui 405 kuusivaltaisesta tasaikäisestä kuviosta, joiden pinta-alasta metsämaata on 636 hehtaaria. Metsän kehitystä simuloitiin puutason kasvumalleja käyttäen ja käsittelytoimenpiteet simuloitiin viisivuotiskausittain SIMO-metsäsuunnitteluohjelmistolla. Simulointien avulla selvitettiin jokaisen käsittelyskenaarion hakkuumäärät puutavaralajeittain, diskontatut kassavirrat ja puustopääoman muutos tarkasteluajanjakson aikana. Puunkorjuun yksikkökustannusten laskennan apuna käytettiin automatisoitua seurantajärjestelmää, jossa metsäkoneisiin asennettuilla matkapuhelimilla kerättiin MobiDoc2-sovelluksella metsäkoneiden käytöstä kiihtyvyystiedot, GPS-paikkatiedot ja syötetiedot. Lopulta jokaiselle käsittelyskenaariolle laskettiin metsän puuntuotannollista arvoa kuvaavalla tuottoarvon yhtälöllä nettonykyarvot, josta vähennettiin diskontatut puunkorjuun kustannukset. Tutkimuksen tulosten mukaan poimintahakkuun NPV oli 3 prosentin korkokannalla noin 91 % (7420 €/ha) ja pienaukkohakkuiden noin 99 % (8076 €/ha) metsänhoitosuositusten mukaisesta käsittelystä (8176 €/ha). Komparatiivinen statiikka osoitti, että korkokannan kasvattaminen 5 prosenttiin ei olennaisesti lisännyt nettonykyarvojen eroja. Poimintahakkuiden puunkorjuun yksikkökustannukset olivat 0,8 €/m3 harvennushakkuita pienemmät ja 7,2 €/m3 uudistushakkuita suuremmat. Pienaukkohakkuiden yksikkökustannukset olivat 0,7 €/m3 uudistushakkuita suuremmat.Tulosten perusteella on väistämätöntä että siirtymävaihe tasaikäisrakenteisesta eri-ikäisrakenteiseksi metsäksi aiheuttaa taloudellisia tappioita siitäkin huolimatta, että hakkuut ovat voimakkaita ja tehdään varttuneeseen kasvatusmetsään. Tappion määrä on metsän peitteisyyden ylläpidosta aiheutuva vaihtoehtoiskustannus.

Coupling geomorphology parameters with lithology for micro-level groundwater resource assessment: a case study from semi-arid hard rock terrain in Tamil Nadu, India

The standard procedure of groundwater resource estimation in India till date is based on the specific yield parameters of each rock type (lithology) derived through pumping test analysis. Using the change in groundwater level, specific yield, and area of influence, groundwater storage change could be estimated. However, terrain conditions in the form of geomorphological variations have an important bearing on the net groundwater recharge. In this study, an attempt was made to use both lithology and geomorphology as input variables to estimate the recharge from different sources in each lithology unit influenced by the geomorphic conditions (lith-geom), season wise separately. The study provided a methodological approach for an evaluation of groundwater in a semi-arid hard rock terrain in Tirunelveli, Tamil Nadu, India. While characterizing the gneissic rock, it was found that the geomorphologic variations in the gneissic rock due to weathering and deposition behaved differently with respect to aquifer recharge. The three different geomorphic units identified in gneissic rock (pediplain shallow weathered (PPS), pediplain moderate weathered (PPM), and buried pediplain moderate (BPM)) showed a significant variation in recharge conditions among themselves. It was found from the study that Peninsular gneiss gives a net recharge value of 0.13 m/year/unit area when considered as a single unit w.r.t. lithology, whereas the same area considered with lith-geom classes gives recharge values between 0.1 and 0.41 m/year presenting a different assessment. It is also found from this study that the stage of development (SOD) for each lith-geom unit in Peninsular gneiss varies from 168 to 230 %, whereas the SOD is 223 % for the lithology as a single unit.

Adapting to climate change: Combining economics and geomorphology in coastal policy

How is climate change affecting our coastal environment? How can coastal communities adapt to sea level rise and increased storm risk? These questions have garnered tremendous interest from scientists and policy makers alike, as the dynamic coastal environment is particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Over half the world population lives and works in a coastal zone less than 120 miles wide, thereby being continuously affected by the changes in the coastal environment [6]. Housing markets are directly influenced by the physical processes that govern coastal systems. Beach towns like Oak Island in North Carolina (NC) face severe erosion, and the tax assesed value of one coastal property fell by 93% in 2007 [9]. With almost ninety percent of the sandy beaches in the US facing moderate to severe erosion [8], coastal communities often intervene to stabilize the shoreline and hold back the sea in order to protect coastal property and infrastructure. Beach nourishment, which is the process of rebuilding a beach by periodically replacing an eroding section of the beach with sand dredged from another location, is a policy for erosion control in many parts of the US Atlantic and Pacific coasts [3]. Beach nourishment projects in the United States are primarily federally funded and implemented by the Army Corps of Engineers (ACE) after a benefit-cost analysis. Benefits from beach nourishment include reduction in storm damage and recreational benefits from a wider beach. Costs would include the expected cost of construction, present value of periodic maintenance, and any external cost such as the environmental cost associated with a nourishment project (NOAA). Federal appropriations for nourishment totaled $787 million from 1995 to 2002 [10]. Human interventions to stabilize shorelines and physical coastal dynamics are strongly coupled. The value of the beach, in the form of storm protection and recreation amenities, is at least partly capitalized into property values. These beach values ultimately influence the benefit-cost analysis in support of shoreline stabilization policy, which, in turn, affects the shoreline dynamics. This paper explores the policy implications of this circularity. With a better understanding of the physical-economic feedbacks, policy makers can more effectively design climate change adaptation strategies. (PDF contains 4 pages)

Structural Design under Seismic Risk Using Multiple Performance Objectives

Structural design is a decision-making process in which a wide spectrum of requirements, expectations, and concerns needs to be properly addressed. Engineering design criteria are considered together with societal and client preferences, and most of these design objectives are affected by the uncertainties surrounding a design. Therefore, realistic design frameworks must be able to handle multiple performance objectives and incorporate uncertainties from numerous sources into the process.

In this study, a multi-criteria based design framework for structural design under seismic risk is explored. The emphasis is on reliability-based performance objectives and their interaction with economic objectives. The framework has analysis, evaluation, and revision stages. In the probabilistic response analysis, seismic loading uncertainties as well as modeling uncertainties are incorporated. For evaluation, two approaches are suggested: one based on preference aggregation and the other based on socio-economics. Both implementations of the general framework are illustrated with simple but informative design examples to explore the basic features of the framework.

The first approach uses concepts similar to those found in multi-criteria decision theory, and directly combines reliability-based objectives with others. This approach is implemented in a single-stage design procedure. In the socio-economics based approach, a two-stage design procedure is recommended in which societal preferences are treated through reliability-based engineering performance measures, but emphasis is also given to economic objectives because these are especially important to the structural designer's client. A rational net asset value formulation including losses from uncertain future earthquakes is used to assess the economic performance of a design. A recently developed assembly-based vulnerability analysis is incorporated into the loss estimation.

The presented performance-based design framework allows investigation of various design issues and their impact on a structural design. It is a flexible one that readily allows incorporation of new methods and concepts in seismic hazard specification, structural analysis, and loss estimation.

Mudança no Critério de Contabilização de Instrumentos Financeiros pelo IASB: estudo de evento sobre os títulos soberanos da Grécia,

A alteração feita pelo IASB em 2008 na classificação dos instrumentos financeiros para reduzir as perdas bancárias com a crise do subprime e de títulos soberanos dos países-membros da União Europeia, após um pedido protocolado pela Comissão da União Europeia, motivou esta pesquisa. A referida alteração ensejou a mudança do critério de avaliação, que passou de valor justo para valor amortizado, para os instrumentos reclassificados, muito embora alguns bancos não tenham aderido à reclassificação, mantendo a orientação original que determinava a avaliação pelo valor justo. Através de Estudo de Evento testou-se a Hipótese de Eficiência de Mercado - HEM, analisando 33 instituições bancárias detentoras de títulos soberanos gregos. Embora a alteração tenha colaborado para que essas instituições bancárias protelassem essas perdas no resultado, não afetou os fluxos de caixa futuros. E como evidenciam os resultados da pesquisa, o mercado foi equitativo com essas instituições, penalizando-as com base no grau de exposição aos títulos gregos, independentemente do critério utilizado, corroborando a HEM: o valor de um ativo é o valor presente dos fluxos de caixa futuros e não dos lucros. Uma consequência importante foi que os governos, através da terceira revisão do Acordo de Capital de Basileia, adotaram medidas para regulamentar com mais rigor as instituições financeiras, no intuito que essas instituições, futuramente, possam suportar melhor os efeitos de uma crise financeira.