Better cars or older cars?: Assessing CO2 emission reduction potential of passenger vehicle replacement programs

The primary motivation for the vehicle replacement schemes that were implemented in many countries was to encourage the purchase of new cars. The basic assumption of these schemes was that these acquisitions would benefit both the economy and the environment as older and less fuel-efficient cars were scrapped and replaced with more fuel-efficient models. In this article, we present a new environmental impact assessment method for assessing the effectiveness of scrappage schemes for reducing CO2 emissions taking into account the rebound effect, driving behavior for older versus new cars and entire lifecycle emissions for during the manufacturing processes of new cars. The assessment of the Japanese scrappage scheme shows that CO2 emissions would only decrease if users of the scheme retained their new gasoline passenger vehicles for at least 4.7 years. When vehicle replacements were restricted to hybrid cars, the reduction in CO2 achieved by the scheme would be 6-8.5 times higher than the emissions resulting from a scheme involving standard, gasoline passenger vehicles. Cost-benefit analysis, based on the emission reduction potential, showed that the scheme was very costly. Sensitivity analysis showed that the Japanese government failed to determine the optimum, or target, car age for scrapping old cars in the scheme. Specifically, scrapping cars aged 13 years and over did not maximize the environmental benefits of the scheme. Consequently, modifying this policy to include a reduction in new car subsidies, focused funding for fuel-efficient cars, and modifying the target car age, would increase environmental benefits. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

Carbon dioxide emissions in the short run: The rate and sources of economic growth matter

This paper investigates the short-run effects of economic growth on carbon dioxide emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels and the manufacture of cement for 189 countries over the period 1961-2010. Contrary to what has previously been reported, we conclude that there is no strong evidence that the emissions-income elasticity is larger during individual years of economic expansion as compared to recession. Significant evidence of asymmetry emerges when effects over longer periods are considered. We find that economic growth tends to increase emissions not only in the same year, but also in subsequent years. Delayed effects - especially noticeable in the road transport sector - mean that emissions tend to grow more quickly after booms and more slowly after recessions. Emissions are more sensitive to fluctuations in industrial value added than agricultural value added, with services being an intermediate case. On the expenditure side, growth in consumption and growth in investment have similar implications for national emissions. External shocks have a relatively large emissions impact, and the short-run emissions-income elasticity does not appear to decline as incomes increase. Economic growth and emissions have been more tightly linked in fossil-fuel rich countries.

Optimal production resource reallocation for CO2 emissions reduction in manufacturing sectors

To mitigate the effects of climate change, countries worldwide are advancing technologies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This paper proposes and measures optimal production resource reallocation using data envelopment analysis. This research attempts to clarify the effect of optimal production resource reallocation on CO2 emissions reduction, focusing on regional and industrial characteristics. We use finance, energy, and CO2 emissions data from 13 industrial sectors in 39 countries from 1995 to 2009. The resulting emissions reduction potential is 2.54 Gt-CO2 in the year 2009, with former communist countries having the largest potential to reduce CO2 emissions in the manufacturing sectors. In particular, basic material industry including chemical and steel sectors has a lot of potential to reduce CO2 emissions.

Spatial ecology of food webs : herbivore-parasitoid communities on the pedunculate oak

Herbivorous insects, their host plants and natural enemies form the largest and most species-rich communities on earth. But what forces structure such communities? Do they represent random collections of species, or are they assembled by given rules? To address these questions, food webs offer excellent tools. As a result of their versatile information content, such webs have become the focus of intensive research over the last few decades. In this thesis, I study herbivore-parasitoid food webs from a new perspective: I construct multiple, quantitative food webs in a spatially explicit setting, at two different scales. Focusing on food webs consisting of specialist herbivores and their natural enemies on the pedunculate oak, Quercus robur, I examine consistency in food web structure across space and time, and how landscape context affects this structure. As an important methodological development, I use DNA barcoding to resolve potential cryptic species in the food webs, and to examine their effect on food web structure. I find that DNA barcoding changes our perception of species identity for as many as a third of the individuals, by reducing misidentifications and by resolving several cryptic species. In terms of the variation detected in food web structure, I find surprising consistency in both space and time. From a spatial perspective, landscape context leaves no detectable imprint on food web structure, while species richness declines significantly with decreasing connectivity. From a temporal perspective, food web structure remains predictable from year to year, despite considerable species turnover in local communities. The rate of such turnover varies between guilds and species within guilds. The factors best explaining these observations are abundant and common species, which have a quantitatively dominant imprint on overall structure, and suffer the lowest turnover. By contrast, rare species with little impact on food web structure exhibit the highest turnover rates. These patterns reveal important limitations of modern metrics of quantitative food web structure. While they accurately describe the overall topology of the web and its most significant interactions, they are disproportionately affected by species with given traits, and insensitive to the specific identity of species. As rare species have been shown to be important for food web stability, metrics depicting quantitative food web structure should then not be used as the sole descriptors of communities in a changing world. To detect and resolve the versatile imprint of global environmental change, one should rather use these metrics as one tool among several.

European aspen and hybrid aspen under changing environment : Leaf traits, growth and litter decomposition

Understanding the responses of species and ecosystems to human-induced global environmental change has become a high research priority. The main aim of this thesis was to investigate how certain environmental factors that relate to global change affect European aspen (Populus tremula), a keystone species in boreal forests, and hybrid aspen (P. tremula × P. tremuloides), cultivated in commercial plantations. The main points under consideration were the acclimatization potential of aspen through changes in leaf morphology, as well as effects on growth, leaf litter chemistry and decomposition. The thesis is based on two experiments, in which young aspen (< 1 year) were exposed either to an atmospheric pollutant [elevated ozone (O3)] or variable resource availability [water, nitrogen (N)]; and two field studies, in which mature trees (> 8 years) were growing in environments exposed to multiple environmental stress factors (roadside and urban environments). The field studies included litter decomposition experiments. The results show that young aspen, especially the native European aspen, was sensitive to O3 in terms of visible leaf injuries. Elevated O3 resulted in reduced biomass allocation to roots and accelerated leaf senescence, suggesting negative effects on growth in the long term. Water and N availability modified the frost hardening of young aspen: High N supply, especially when combined with drought, postponed the development of frost hardiness, which in turn may predispose trees to early autumn frosts. This effect was more pronounced in European aspen. The field studies showed that mature aspen acclimatized to roadside and urban environments by producing more xeromorphic leaves. Leaf morphology was also observed to vary in response to interannual climatic variation, which further indicates the ability of aspen for phenotypic plasticity. Intraspecific variation was found in several of the traits measured, although intraspecific differences in response to the abiotic factors examined were generally small throughout the studies. However, some differences between clones were found in sensitivity to O3 and the roadside environment. Aspen leaf litter decomposition was retarded in the roadside environment, but only initially. By contrast, decomposition was found to be faster in the urban than the rural environment throughout the study. The higher quality of urban litter (higher in N, lower in lignin and phenolics), as well as higher temperature, N deposition and humus pH at the urban site were factors likely to promote decay. The phenotypic plasticity combined with intraspecific variation found in the studies imply that aspen has potential for withstanding environmental changes, although some global change factors, such as rising O3 levels, may adversely affect its performance. The results also suggest that the multiple environmental changes taking place in urban areas which correspond closely with the main drivers of global change can modify ecosystem functioning by promoting litter decomposition, mediated partly by alterations in leaf litter quality.

Estimating national contributions of greenhouse gas emissions :The CSE-WRI controversy

Analysts have identified four related questions that need to be asked and answered before agreements to respond to global warming will be possible.1 Which countries bear responsibility for causing the problem? What quantities and mix of greenhouse gases should each country be allowed to emit? Which countries have the resources to do something about the problem? Where are the best opportunities for undertaking projects to respond to the problem? Failure to distinguish among these four questions, or willingness to accept superficial answers, promotes unnecessary controversy.

Identifying social determinants of urban low carbon transitions: the case of energy transition in Bilbao, Basque Country

33 p.

Análise de vulnerabilidade ecológica da Bacia Lagos São João, RJ: uma contribuição metodológica para estudos de adaptação às mudanças ambientais globais.

Este trabalho objetiva contribuir para o desenvolvimento de metodologia de análises de vulnerabilidade ecológica de bacias hidrográficas, com foco nos ecossistemas de água doce. Partiu-se de uma base metodológica proposta pela Rede WWF e de sua adaptação para a Bacia Lagos São João. Através da aplicação da metodologia desenvolvida, foi possível realizar uma análise multicriterial que identificou, por um lado, os principais estressores afetando a integridade ecológica da bacia, e sua severidade e frequência, mediante avaliação colaborativa de um painel de especialistas; por outro lado, avaliou-se a sensibilidade da bacia aos estressores selecionados. O uso de ferramentas de sistemas de informação geográfica permitiu espacializar, localizar e quantificar as ameaças (estressores), gerando mapas de risco ecológico, identificando em especial, as unidades mais desequilibradas do território em análise. Estas são indicadas como prioritárias para as ações de conservação dos ecossistemas aquáticos, e dos serviços ecossistêmicos providos, do qual depende grande parte da população da bacia. Esta dissertação apresenta, portanto, duas principais contribuições: um estudo global e preliminar da integridade ecológica da bacia Lagos São João; e, sobretudo, adaptações e detalhamentos da base metodológica desenvolvida pela Rede WWF, replicáveis em outras bacias hidrográficas. Ressalte-se que esta análise constitui etapa preliminar para a definição de estratégias de adaptação e resiliência de bacias hidrográficas às mudanças ambientais globais associadas às variabilidades e mudanças climáticas.

Uncertainties in estimates of cropland area in China: a comparison between an AVHRR-derived dataset and a Landsat TM-derived dataset

The large uncertainties in estimates of cropland area in China may have significant implications for major cross-cutting themes of global environmental change-food production and trade, water resources, and the carbon and nitrogen cycles. Many earlier studies have indicated significant under-reporting of cropland area in China from official agricultural census statistics datasets. Space-borne remote sensing analyses provide an alternative and independent approach for estimating cropland area in China. In this study, we report estimates of cropland area from the National Land Cover Dataset (NLCD-96) at the 1:100,000 scale, which was generated by a multi-year National Land Cover Project in China through visual interpretation and digitization of Landsat TM images acquired mostly in 1995 and 1996. We compared the NLCD-96 dataset to another land cover dataset at I-km spatial resolution (the IGBP DIScover dataset version 2.0), which was generated from monthly Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR)-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from April, 1992 to March, 1993. The data comparison highlighted the limitation and uncertainty of cropland area estimates from the DIScover dataset. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

冰期间冰期转换过程中陆地碳库的演化规律研究

Terrestrial carbon pool mainly consists of three parts: the active carbon pool of the vegetation，soil carbon pools and the lithosphere carbon pool of less activity. Under natural conditions，vegetation carbon pools，soil carbon exchange with atmospheric carbon pool directly，the lithosphere participate in the global carbon cycle by weathering Our research have coverd the soil organic carbon density，plant biomass (carbon density)，plant net primary productivity of past 40 ka，and the magnetic susceptibility，grain size，weathering of silicate carbon consumption of past 140 ka. This study has achieved a number of conclusions as shown below. 1 Silicate weathering CO2 consumption in the long-term fluctuations with a similar deep-sea δ18O record，demonstate that it not only can be used as one of the instructions of terrestrial carbon pool，even can be used as indicators of global environmental change; silicate weathering CO2 consumption and susceptibility shown a clear relationship between lag or lead at different times，it maybe lies on how the climate change. 2 Soil carbon pools in line with the global climate on long-term，but the relationship between soil carbon density and climate change was not obvious in short-term change，generally lags behind the changes in other climatic proxies. 3 Carbon density of vegetation and other proxy indicators of climate have good consistency. In the study period，perform the cycle of glacial and interglacial completely，but because of the ancient vegetation of accurate information is difficult to obtain，it did not reflect rapid response to climate change. 4 Cooling events is conducive to soil organic carbon accumulation but not conducive to weathering and vegetation growth. High temperature environment is not conducive to the accumulation of soil organic carbon. 5 In the deglacial time from the last glacial maximum to the Holocene，weathering carbon consumption seems earlier than vegetation and soil organic carbon in the fluctuant increase.Does it imply that the effects of silicate weathering is an important factor to the global carbon cycle and global climate change? It is worth further research.

K/E之交环境地球化学元素的演化与全球变化及恐龙绝灭的关系-以黑龙江中下游地区和俄罗斯远东地区为例

In this paper, We analyzed the geological and geographical settings of dinosaurs extinction at the end of Cretaceous, especially the effect of the change of the elements contents on dinosaurs extinction. We studied basis on the two typical sections-Cretaceous-Paleocene boundary (Baishantou section (in Jiayin, Heilongjiang province of China) and Arkhara-Boguchan Coal Mine section (in Far East of Russian)) and Longgushan section (in Jiayin, Heilongjiang province of China) mainly. This work provided some evidences for forecasting the effects of global environmental change on bio-circle. The followings are the primary gains: According to the paleo-climate indexes (CaO/MgO,Sr/Ba) and the results of Factor Analysis, we found that there were similar climate in Baishantou section and Arkhara-Boguchan Coal Mine section near the K/E boundary, and both of them took on the trend of temperature declining and precipitation heightening after transitory high-temperature and drought. There are similar change and evlution rule of the elements contents near the boundary in the both sections (Baishantou section and Arkhara-Boguchan Coal Mine section). Both iron group elements and chalcophile elements appeared obvious abnormity. There are not visible correlation between the change of elements contents and climate indexes. This shows that the elements abnormity maybe came from the factors excluding climate or the factors were too many to conceal the influence of climate. --The result of cluster analysis showed that the boundary between BST3-8 and BST3-9 may be the K/E boundary of Baishantou section, and the top of twofold coal were the K/E boundary of Arkhara-Boguchan Coal Mine section which was consistent with accepted conclusion formerly. By contrast of elements contents in dinosaur bones and general organism, in surrounding rock and general sand stone, the regulation of the change of elements contents in dinosaur bones and surrounding rock, we confirmed that dinosaur extinction in Jiayin were relative with the high abnormities of Sr, Ba, Pb, Cr and the low abnormity of Zn, at least, it was them which speeded up dinosaurs extinction. After a series of analysis, we concluded that dinosaurs extinction of this areas tied up with the relative high background values of geo-chemical elements , paleo-climate and disaster incidents. First of all, high background values provided the necessary condition for the accumulation of the elements. Secondly, the drought climate adverse to the survival of dinosaurs, and led them to extinct gradually. finally, disaster incidents, the eruption of volcano or the collision of aerolites, made them exit this planet.

The politics of hazard: imminent critique and deconstruction of ecological modernisation in Ireland

This dissertation sets out to provide immanent critique and deconstruction of ecological modernisation or ecomodernism.It does so, from a critical social theory approach, in order to correctly address the essential issues at the heart of the environmental crisis that ecomodernism purports to address. This critical approach argues that the solution to the environmental crisis can only be concretely achieved by recognising its root cause as being foremost the issue of material interaction between classes in society, and not simply between society and nature in any structurally meaningful way. Based on a metaphysic of false dualism, ecological modernisation attributes a materiality of exchange value relations to issues of society, while simultaneously offering a non- material ontology to issues of nature. Thus ecomodernism serves asymmetrical relations of power whereby, as a polysemic policy discourse, it serves the material interests of those who have the power to impose abstract interpretations on the materiality of actual phenomena. The research of this dissertation is conducted by the critical evaluation of the empirical data from two exemplary Irish case studies. Discovery of the causal processes of the various public issues in the case studies and thereafter the revelation of the meaning structures under- pinning such causal processes, is a theoretically- driven task requiring analysis of those social practices found in the cognitive, cultural and structural constitutions respectively of actors, mediations and systems.Therefore, the imminent critique of the case study paradigms serves as a research strategy for comprehending Ireland’s nature- society relations as influenced essentially by a systems (techno- corporatist) ecomodernist discourse. Moreover, the deconstruction of this systems ideological discourse serves not only to demonstrate how weak ecomodernism practically undermines its declared ecological objectives, but also indicates how such objectives intervene as systemic contradictions at the cultural heart of Ireland’s late modernisation.

Long-Term Oceanographic and Ecological Research in the Western English Channel

Long-term research in the western English Channel, undertaken by the marine laboratories in Plymouth, is described and details of survey methods, sites, and time series given in this chapter. Major findings are summarized and their limitations outlined. Current research, with recent reestablishment and expansion of many sampling programmes, is presented, and possible future approaches are indicated. These unique long-term data sets provide an environmental baseline for predicting complex ecological responses to local, regional, and global environmental change. Between 1888 and the present, investigations have been carried out into the physical, chemical, and biological components (ranging from plankton and fish to benthic and intertidal assemblages) of the western English Channel ecosystem. The Marine Biological Association of the United Kingdom has performed the main body of these observations. More recent contributions come from the Continuous Plankton Recorder Survey, now the Sir Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science, dating from 1957; the Institute for Marine Environmental Research, from 1974 to 1987; and the Plymouth Marine Laboratory, which was formed by amalgamation of the Institute for Marine Environmental Research and part of the Marine Biological Association, from 1988. Together, these contributions constitute a unique data series; one of the longest and most comprehensive samplings of environmental and marine biological variables in the world. Since the termination of many of these time series in 1987-1988 during a reorganisation of UK marine research, there has been a resurgence of interest in long-term environmental change. Many programmes have been restarted and expanded with support from several agencies. The observations span significant periods of warming (1921-1961; 1985-present) and cooling (1962-1980). During these periods of change, the abundance of key species underwent dramatic shifts. The first period of warming saw changes in zooplankton, pelagic fish, and larval fish, including the collapse of an important herring fishery. During later periods of change, shifts in species abundances have been reflected in other assemblages, such as the intertidal zone and the benthic fauna. Many of these changes appear to be related to climate, manifested as temperature changes, acting directly or indirectly. The hypothesis that climate is a forcing factor is widely supported today and has been reinforced by recent studies that show responses of marine organisms to climatic attributes such as the strength of the North Atlantic Oscillation. The long-term data also yield important insights into the effects of anthropogenic disturbances such as fisheries exploitation and pollution. Comparison of demersal fish hauls over time highlights fisheries effects not only on commercially important species but also on the entire demersal community. The effects of acute ("Torrey Canyon" oil spill) and chronic (tributyltin [TBT] antifoulants) pollution are clearly seen in the intertidal records. Significant advances in diverse scientific disciplines have been generated from research undertaken alongside the long-term data series.