Diseño y aplicación de una metodología prospectiva para la determinación de los condicionantes futuros del crecimiento de los grandes buques portacontenedores

Durante las últimas décadas se observa una tendencia sostenida al crecimiento en las dimensiones de los grandes buques portacontenedores, que produce, que las infraestructuras portuarias y otras destinadas al tráfico de contenedores deban adaptarse para poder brindar los servicios correspondientes y mantenerse competitivas con otras para no perder el mercado. Esta situación implica importantes inversiones y modificaciones en los sistemas de transporte de contenedores por el gran volumen de carga que se debe mover en un corto periodo de tiempo, lo que genera la necesidad de tomar previsiones relacionadas con la probable evolución a futuro de las dimensiones que alcanzarán los grandes buques portacontenedores. En relación a los aspectos citados surge la inquietud de determinar los condicionantes futuros del crecimiento de los grandes buques portacontenedores, con una visión totalizadora de todos los factores que incidirán en los próximos años, ya sea como un freno o un impulso a la tendencia que se verifica en el pasado y en el presente. En consideración a que el tema a tratar y resolver se encuentra en el futuro, con un horizonte de predicción de veinte años, se diseña y se aplica una metodología prospectiva, que permite alcanzar conclusiones con mayor grado de objetividad sobre probables escenarios futuros. La metodología prospectiva diseñada, conjuga distintas herramientas metodológicas, cualitativas, semi-cuantitativas y cuantitativas que se validan entre sí. Sobre la base del pasado y el presente, las herramientas cuantitativas permiten encontrar relaciones entre variables y hacer proyecciones, sin embargo, estas metodologías pierden validez más allá de los tres a cuatro años, por los vertiginosos y dinámicos cambios que se producen actualmente, en las áreas política, social y económica. Las metodologías semi-cuantitativas y cualitativas, empleadas en forma conjunta e integradas, permiten el análisis de circunstancias del pasado y del presente, obteniendo resultados cuantitativos que se pueden proyectar hacia un futuro cercano, los que integrados en estudios cualitativos proporcionan resultados a largo plazo, facilitando considerar variables cualitativas como la creciente preocupación por la preservación del medio ambiente y la piratería. La presente tesis, tiene como objetivo principal “identificar los condicionantes futuros del crecimiento de los grandes buques portacontenedores y determinar sus escenarios”. Para lo cual, la misma se estructura en fases consecutivas y que se retroalimentan continuamente. Las tres primeras fases son un enfoque sobre el pasado y el presente, que establece el problema a resolver. Se estudian los antecedentes y el estado del conocimiento en relación a los factores y circunstancias que motivaron y facilitaron la tendencia al crecimiento de los grandes buques. También se estudia el estado del conocimiento de las metodologías para predecir el futuro y se diseña de una metodología prospectiva. La cuarta fase, denominada Resultados, se desarrolla en distintas etapas, fundamentadas en las fases anteriores, con el fin de resolver el problema dando respuestas a las preguntas que se formularon para alcanzar el objetivo fijado. En el proceso de esta fase, con el objeto de predecir probables futuros, se aplica la metodología prospectiva diseñada, que contempla el análisis del pasado y el presente, que determina los factores cuya influencia provocó el crecimiento en dimensiones de los grandes buques hasta la actualidad, y que constituye la base para emplear los métodos prospectivos que permiten determinar qué factores condicionarán en el futuro la evolución de los grandes buques. El probable escenario futuro formado por los factores determinados por el criterio experto, es validado mediante un modelo cuantitativo dinámico, que además de obtener el probable escenario futuro basado en las tendencias de comportamiento hasta el presente de los factores determinantes considerados, permite estudiar distintos probables escenarios futuros en función de considerar un cambio en la tendencia futura de los factores determinantes. El análisis del pasado indica que la tendencia al crecimiento de los grandes buques portacontenedores hasta el presente, se ha motivado por un crecimiento económico mundial que se tradujo en un aumento del comercio internacional, particularmente entre los países de Asia, con Europa y Estados Unidos. Esta tendencia se ha visto favorecida por el factor globalización y la acelerada evolución tecnológica que ha permitido superar los obstáculos que se presentaron. Es de destacar que aún en periodos de crisis económicas, con pronósticos de contracciones en el comercio, en los últimos años continuó la tendencia al crecimiento en dimensiones, en busca de una economía de escala para el transporte marítimo de contenedores, en las rutas transoceánicas. La investigación de la evolución de los grandes buques portacontenedores en el futuro, se efectúa mediante el empleo de una metodología prospectiva en la que el criterio experto se valida con un método cuantitativo dinámico, y además se fundamenta en una solida base pre-prospectiva. La metodología diseñada permite evaluar con un alto grado de objetividad cuales serán los condicionantes que incidirán en el crecimiento en tamaño de los grandes buques portacontenedores en el escenario con mayor probabilidad de acontecer en los próximos veinte años (2032), y también en otros escenarios que podrían presentarse en el caso de que los factores modifiquen su tendencia o bien se produzcan hechos aleatorios. El resultado se sintetiza en que la tendencia al crecimiento de los grandes buques portacontenedores en los próximos 20 años se verá condicionada por factores en relación a los conceptos de oferta (los que facilitan u obstaculizan la tendencia), demanda (los que motivan o impulsan la tendencia) y factores externos (los que desestabilizan el equilibrio entre oferta y demanda). La tendencia al crecimiento de los grandes buques portacontenedores se verá obstaculizada / limitada principalmente por factores relacionados a las infraestructuras, resultando los pasos y/o canales vinculados a las rutas marítimas, los limitantes futuros al crecimiento en dimensiones de los grandes buques portacontenedores; y la interacción buque / infraestructura (grúas) un factor que tenderá a obstaculizar esta tendencia de los grandes portacontenedores. El desarrollo económico mundial que estimula el comercio internacional y los factores precio del petróleo y condicionantes medioambientales impulsarán la tendencia al crecimiento de los grandes buques portacontenedores. Recent years have seen a sustained tendency towards the growth in the dimensions of large container ships. This has meant that port and other infrastructure used for container traffic has had to be adapted in order to provide the required services and to maintain a competitive position, so as not to lose market share. This situation implies the need for major investments in modifications to the container transport system, on account of the large volume of traffic to be handled in a short period of time. This in turn has generated a need to make provision for the probable future evolution of the ultimate dimensions that will be reached by large container ships. Such considerations give rise to the question of what are the future determinants for the growth of large container ships, requiring an overall vision of all the factors that will apply in future years, whether as a brake on or an incentive to the growth tendency which has been seen in the past and present In view of the fact that the theme to be dealt with and resolved relates to the future, with a forecasting horizon of some 20 years, a foresight methodology has been designed and applied so as to enable conclusions about probable future scenarios to be reached with a greater degree of objectivity. The designed methodology contains different methodological tools, both qualitative, semi-quantitative and quantitative, which are internally consistent. On the basis of past and present observations, the quantitative elements enable relationships to be established and forecasts to be made. Nevertheless such an approach loses validity more than three or four years into the future, on account of the very rapid and dynamic changes which may be seen at present in political, social and economic spheres. The semi-quantitative and qualitative methodologies are used coherently together and allow the analysis of past and present conditions, thus obtaining quantitative results which for short-term projections, which when integrated with the qualitative studies provide results for the long-term, facilitating the consideration of qualitative variables such as the increasing importance of environmental protection and the impact of piracy. The principal objective of the present thesis is "to identify the future conditions affecting the growth of large container ships and to determine possible scenarios". The thesis is structured in consecutive and related phases. The first three phases focus on the past and present in order to determine the problem to be resolved. The background is studied in order to establish the state of knowledge about the factors and circumstances which have motivated and facilitated the growth tendency for large container ships and the methodologies that have been used. In this way a specific foresight methodology is designed. The fourth phase, Results, is developed in distinct stages based on the previous phases, so as to resolve the problem posed and responding to the questions that arise. In this way the determined objective is reached. The fourth phase sees the application of the methodology that has been designed in order to predict posible futures. This includes analysis of the past and present factors which have caused the growth in the dimensions of large container ships up to the present. These provide the basis on which to apply the foresight methods which enable the future factors which will condition the development of such large container ships. The probable future scenarios are made up of the factors identified by expert judgement (using the Delphi technique) and validated by means of a dynamic quantitative model. This model both identifies the probable future scenarios based on past and present factors and enables the different future scenarios to be analysed as a function of future changes in the conditioning factors. Analysis of the past shows that the growth tendency up to the present for large container ships has been motivated by the growth of the world economy and the consequent increased international trade, especially between the countries of Asia with Europe and the United States. This tendency has been favoured by the trend towards globalization and by the rapid technical evolution in ship design, which has allowed the obstacles encountered to be overcome. It should be noted that even in periods of economic crisis, with an expectation for reduced trade, as experienced in recent years, the tendency towards increased ship dimensions has continued in search of economies of scale for the maritime transport of containers on transoceanic routes. The present investigation of the future evolution of large container ships has been done using a foresight methodology in which the expert judgement is validated by a dynamic quantitative methodology, founded on a firm pre-foresight analysis. The methodology that has been designed permits the evaluation, with a high degree of objectivity, of the future factors that will affect the growth of large container ships for the most probable scenario expected in the next 20 years (up to 2032). The evaluation applies also to other scenarios which may arise, in the event that their component factors are modified or indeed in the light of random events. In summary, the conclusión is that the tendency for growth in large container ships in the future 20 years will be determined by: factors related to supply, which slow or halt the tendency; factors related to demand, which encourage the tendency and finally, external factors which interrupt the equilibrium between supply and demand. The tendency for increasing growth in large container ships will be limited or even halted by factors related to infrastructure, including the natural and man-made straits and canals used by maritime transport. In addition the infrastructure required to serve such vessels both in port (including cranes and other equipment) and related transport, will tend to slow the growth tendency. The factors which will continue to encourage the tendency towards the growth of large container ships include world economic development, which stimulates international trade, and an increasing emphasis on environmental aspects.

Tomatoes for processing in the 90's: Postharvest handling.

Processing tomato industry has a high potential in Spain. Variety testing and mechanization studies and applications have been performed during the last 15 years. Many factors affect the quality and product losses during post-harvest handling which may be classified as: main or external factors: those related to the systems, procedures and devices; and fruit factors: those related to fruit properties. A research project is being carried on in the area of Vegas del Guadiana (Badajoz, Spain) to study these factors and to estimate costs, and to develop improved post-harvest handling practices.

System supporting public transport based on geolocation

El propósito de este proyecto de fin de Grado es el estudio y desarrollo de una aplicación basada en Android que proporcionará soporte y atención a los servicios de transporte público existentes en Cracovia, Polonia. La principal funcionalidad del sistema será consultar la posición de un determinado autobús o tranvía y mostrar su ubicación con exactitud. Para lograr esto, necesitaremos tres fases de desarrollo. En primer lugar, deberemos implementar un sistema que obtenga las coordenadas geográficas de los vehículos de transporte público en cada instante. A continuación, tendremos que registrar todos estos datos y almacenarlos en una base de datos en un servidor web. Por último, desarrollaremos un sistema cliente que realice consultas a tiempo real sobre estos datos almacenados, obteniendo la posición para una línea determinada y mostrando su ubicación con un marcador en el mapa. Para hacer el seguimiento de los vehículos, sería necesario tener acceso a una API pública que nos proporcionase la posición registrada por los GPS que integran cada uno de ellos. Como esta API no existe actualmente para los servicios de autobús, y para los tranvías es de uso meramente privado, desarrollaremos una segunda aplicación en Android que hará las funciones del lado servidor. En ella podremos elegir mediante una simple interfaz el número de línea y un código específico que identificará a cada vehículo en particular (e.g. podemos tener 6 tranvías recorriendo la red al mismo tiempo para la línea 24). Esta aplicación obtendrá las coordenadas geográficas del teléfono móvil, lo cual incluye latitud, longitud y orientación a través del proveedor GPS. De este modo, podremos realizar una simulación de como el sistema funcionará a tiempo real utilizando la aplicación servidora desde dentro de un tranvía o autobús y, al mismo tiempo, utilizando la aplicación cliente haciendo peticiones para mostrar la información de dicho tranvía. El cliente, además, podrá consultar la ruta de cualquier línea sin necesidad de tener acceso a Internet. Almacenaremos las rutas y paradas de cada línea en la memoria del teléfono móvil utilizando ficheros XML debido al poco espacio que ocupan y a lo útil que resulta poder consultar un trayecto en cualquier momento, independientemente del acceso a la red. El usuario también podrá consultar las tablas de horarios oficiales para cada línea. Aunque en este caso si será necesaria una conexión a Internet debido a que se realizará a través de la web oficial de MPK. Para almacenar todas las coordenadas de cada vehículo en cada instante necesitaremos crear una base de datos en un servidor. Esto se resolverá mediante el uso de MYSQL y PHP. Se enviarán peticiones de tipo GET y POST a los servicios PHP que se encargarán de traducir y realizar la consulta correspondiente a la base de datos MYSQL. Por último, gracias a todos los datos recogidos relativos a la posición de los vehículos de transporte público, podremos realizar algunas tareas de análisis. Comparando la hora exacta a la que los vehículos pasaron por cada parada y la hora a la que deberían haber pasado según los horarios oficiales, podremos descubrir fallos en estos. Seremos capaces de determinar si es un error puntual debido a factores externos (atascos, averías,…) o si por el contrario, es algo que ocurre muy a menudo y se debería corregir el horario oficial. ABSTRACT The aim of this final Project (for University) is to develop an Android application thatwill provide support and feedback to the public transport services in Krakow. The main functionality of the system will be to track the position of a desired bus or tram line, and display its position on the map. To achieve this, we will need 3 stages: the first one will be to implement a system that sends the geographical position of the public transport vehicles, the second one will be to collect this data in a web server, and the last one will be to get the last location registered for the desired line and display it on the map. For tracking the vehicles, we would need to have access to a public API that should be connected with each bus/tram GPS. As this doesn’t exist in Krakow or at least is not available for public use, we will develop a second android application that will do the server side job. We will be able to choose in a simple interface the line number and a code letter to identify each vehicle (e.g. we can have 6 trams that belong to the line number 24 working at the same time). It will take the current mobile geolocation; this includes getting latitude, longitude and bearing from the GPS provider. Thus, we will be able to make a simulation of how the system works in real time by using the server app inside a tram and at the same time, using the client app and making requests to display the information of that tram. The client will also be able to check the path of the desired line without internet access. We will store the path and stops for each line locally in the phone memory using xml files due to the few requirements of available space it needs and the usefulness of checking a path when needed. This app will also offer the functionality of checking the timetable for the line, but in this case, it will link to the official Mpk website, so Internet access will be required. For storing all the coordinates for each vehicle at every moment we will need to create a database on a server. We have decided that the easiest way is to use Mysql and PHP for the deployment of the service. We will send GET and POST requests to the php files and those files will make the according queries to our database. Finally, based on all the collected data, we will be able to get some information about errors in the system of public transport timetables. We will check at what time a line was in each specific stop and compare it with the official timetable to find mistakes of time. We will determine if it is something that happens occasionally and related to external factors (e.g. traffic jams, breakdowns…) or if on the other hand, it is something that happens very often and the public transport timetables should be looked over and corrected.

A water footprint assessment of a pair of jeans: the influence of agricultural policies on the sustainability of consumer products.

This study reports the results of a water footprint (WF) assessment of five types of textiles commonly used for the production of jeans, including two different fibres (cotton and Lyocell fibre) and five corresponding production methods for spinning, dyeing and weaving. The results show that the fibre production is the stage with the highest water consumption, being cotton production particularly relevant. Therefore, the study pays particular attention to the water footprint of cotton production and analyses the effects of external factors influencing the water footprint of a product, in this case, the incentives provided by the EU Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), and the relevance of agricultural practices to the water footprint of a product is emphasised. An extensification of the crop production led to higher WF per unit, but a lower overall pressure on the basins water resources. This study performs a sustainability assessment of the estimated cotton WFs with the water scarcity index, as proposed by Hoekstra et al. (2011), and shows their variations in different years as a result of different water consumption by crops in the rest of the river basin. In our case, we applied the assessment to the Guadalquivir, Guadalete and Barbate river basins, three semi-arid rivers in South Spain. Because they are found to be relevant, the available water stored in dams and the outflow are also incorporated as reference points for the sustainability assessment. The study concludes that, in the case of Spanish cotton production, the situation of the basin and the policy impact are more relevant for the status of the basin s water resources than the actual WF of cotton production. Therefore, strategies aimed at reducing the impact of the water footprint of a product need to analyse both the WF along the value chain and within the local context.

CSR Policies: Effects on Labour Productivity in Spanish Micro and Small Manufacturing Companies

This paper analyses empirical evidence of efforts to enable Spanish micro and small manufacturing companies to boost their labour productivity rates through the development of the main pillars of their corporate social responsibility (CSR) policies. This study aims to develop new approaches and sensibilities towards work from an ethical, values (virtues) and CSR perspective, showing how internal dimensions of CSR, such those related to relationships with employees and responsibility in processes and product quality, can improve labour performance and labour efficiency, thereby contributing to a better society. The results of a sample of 929 small businesses indicate that the social responsibility policies that most contributed to a short-term increase in labour productivity are those related to internal aspects of the company, in particular its involvement in the quality of processes and products, promotion of innovation and employee care. However, the impact on labour productivity of CSR policies related to external factors, such as relationship with stakeholders and environmental concern, could not be empirically proven in this paper.

Med Capital Partners: plan de negocio de una EAFI

Med Capital Partners (MCP en adelante) es un empresa de asesoramiento financiero independiente (EAFI) que ofrecerá servicios de asesoramiento personalizado tanto a clientes particulares como a empresas, complementando su oferta con otros servicios auxiliares, que le permitan brindar a sus clientes una solución integral. MCP ha sido fundada por tres socios con formación y experiencia específica en el ámbito objeto del negocio, pero multidisciplinar para ofrecer un amplio espectro de servicios de calidad tanto en la Región de Murcia, donde va a establecer su sede, como en el resto de territorio nacional. MCP se crea con la firme misión de ofrecer servicios de asesoramiento y consulta financieros para la gestión y planificación patrimonial de calidad, de forma independiente y transparente y con la motivación de ser el médico de cabecera financiero de familias, particulares y empresas de todos los ámbitos, basándonos en arraigados valores entre los que predominan la transparencia, la independencia y la discreción. Una vez analizados los factores externos y haber realizado los planes de marketing, operaciones y financiero, nos encontramos en disposición de determinar que: 1.Existe un gran número de clientes potenciales. 2.Los factores político, social y legal favorecen la creación de este tipo de empresas. 3.Hay pocos competidores establecidos hasta la fecha. 4.No necesita complicadas infraestructuras ni requiere elevados gastos de aprovisionamiento. 5.Desde el año 2, se obtienen resultados positivos. La propuesta de valor de MCP está focalizada en ofrecer un servicio de calidad al menor precio posible, fijando una política de tarifas inferior a la media nacional y a la de nuestros competidores más cercanos, así como un esquema de precios descendentes para aquellos clientes que depositen su confianza en nosotros y renueven su contrato de asesoramiento continuado o contraten un combo de servicios. En términos operativos, el establecimiento de MCP requiere relativamente poco capital inicial, permitiendo ofrecer los primeros dividendos a los socios en un corto espacio temporal y teniendo desde el primer momento, un sueldo que les permita dedicarse plenamente al funcionamiento de MCP. En definitiva, creemos que MCP puede dar respuesta a una gran oportunidad de negocio existente en un sector en alza y en un mercado de arranque en el que hay una gran riqueza y poca cultura de inversión asesorada. ---ABSTRACT---Med Capital Partners (MCP) is an invest services company, which is established according to an EAFI structure. MCP will offer a custom-made service not only to individual clients but also to enterprises, with a wide range of supplementary services, including industrial strategy projects and all kind of financial processes demanded. MCP has been founded by three partners with proved training and specific experience based on the financial field but multitask and different between them, in order to offer various quality services in Región de Murcia, where it is going to be based, and also all around Spain. MCP is built with the firm mission of offering assessment and financial consulting quality services, helping with the patrimonial management and planning, doing it in an independent and transparent way, and always driving by the motivation of being the family doctor of individual and enterprise of sectors. To make it possible, MCP has deep values as excellence, wisdom and discretion. Once we have analyzed external factors and having made marketing, operations and financial plans, we are ready to determinate: 1.There is a big amount of potential customers. 2.Political, social and legal factors favor the formation of this type of business. 3.There are not many established competitors until now. 4.MCP does not need complex infrastructures either raised initial investment. 5.From year 2 and on, MCP is profitable. The value proposition of MCP is to focus on developing quality services with affordable fees, fixing a price policy under any other Spanish EAFI. MCP wants to build processes according to reality, working with reachable expectations and on real times. MCP is committed to the creation of stable, sustainable and consistent structures to adapt themselves to the individual risk profile of the customers, taking care of all of them. MCP wants to build a close relationship with clients and has developed a descending fee policy. MCP establishment does not require high initial resources and it is profitable in a short time, allowing investors to get their first dividends. Summarizing, we can say MCP is the answer of a big business opportunity within a rising and wealth market that only need a little help to emerge.

Irrigated agriculture: Water resources management for a sustainable environment

In the last decade, research on irrigation has mainly been aimed at reducing crop water consumption. In arid and semi-arid environments, in relation to the limited water resources, the use of low quality water in agriculture has also been investigated in order to detect their effects on soil physical properties and on crop production. More recently, even the reduction of energy consumption in agriculture, as well as the effects of external factors, climate change and agricultural policies, have been major research interests. All these objectives have been considered in the papers included in this special issue. However, in the last years, approaches aimed at reducing crop water requirements have significantly changed. Remote sensing with satellites or unmanned vehicles, and vegetation spectral measurements, among others, represent in fact the newest frontier of existing technologies. Knowledge of soil hydraulic properties, often forgotten because of the difficulty of their estimation, can also be considered as a new way to reduce water consumption.

Guidelines for the design of an environmental flow regime program at the regional scale: Application of the ELOHA framework in the Ebro River basin

La gestión de los recursos hídricos se convierte en un reto del presente y del futuro frente a un panorama de continuo incremento de la demanda de agua debido al crecimiento de la población, el crecimiento del desarrollo económico y los posibles efectos del calentamiento global. La política hidráulica desde los años 60 en España se ha centrado en la construcción de infraestructuras que han producido graves alteraciones en el régimen natural de los ríos. Estas alteraciones han provocado y acrecentado los impactos sobre los ecosistemas fluviales y ribereños. Desde los años 90, sin embargo, ha aumentado el interés de la sociedad para conservar estos ecosistemas. El concepto de caudales ambientales consiste en un régimen de caudales que simula las características principales del régimen natural. Los caudales ambientales están diseñados para conservar la estructura y funcionalidad de los ecosistemas asociados al régimen fluvial, bajo la hipótesis de que los elementos que conforman estos ecosistemas están profundamente adaptados al régimen natural de caudales, y que cualquier alteración del régimen natural puede provocar graves daños a todo el sistema. El método ELOHA (Ecological Limits of Hydrological Alteration) tiene como finalidad identificar las componentes del régimen natural de caudales que son clave para mantener el equilibrio de los ecosistemas asociados, y estimar los límites máximos de alteración de estas componentes para garantizar su buen estado. Esta tesis presenta la aplicación del método ELOHA en la cuenca del Ebro. La cuenca del Ebro está profundamente regulada e intervenida por el hombre, y sólo las cabeceras de los principales afluentes del Ebro gozan todavía de un régimen total o cuasi natural. La tesis se estructura en seis capítulos que desarrollan las diferentes partes del método. El primer capítulo explica cómo se originó el concepto “caudales ambientales” y en qué consiste el método ELOHA. El segundo capítulo describe el área de estudio. El tercer capítulo realiza una clasificación de los regímenes naturales de la cuenca (RNC) del Ebro, basada en series de datos de caudal mínimamente alterado y usando exclusivamente parámetros hidrológicos. Se identificaron seis tipos diferentes de régimen natural: pluvial mediterráneo, nivo-pluvial, pluvial mediterréaneo con una fuerte componente del caudal base, pluvial oceánico, pluvio-nival oceánico y Mediterráneo. En el cuarto capítulo se realiza una regionalización a toda la cuenca del Ebro de los seis RNC encontrados en la cueca. Mediante parámetros climáticos y fisiográficos se extrapola la información del tipo de RNC a puntos donde no existen datos de caudal inalterado. El patrón geográfico de los tipos de régimen fluvial obtenido con la regionalización resultó ser coincidente con el patrón obtenido a través de la clasificación hidrológica. El quinto capítulo presenta la validación biológica de los procesos de clasificación anteriores: clasificación hidrológica y regionalización. La validación biológica de los tipos de regímenes fluviales es imprescindible, puesto que los diferentes tipos de régimen fluvial van a servir de unidades de gestión para favorecer el mantenimiento de los ecosistemas fluviales. Se encontraron diferencias significativas entre comunidades biológicas en cinco de los seis tipos de RNC encontrados en la cuenca. Finalmente, en el sexto capítulo se estudian las relaciones hidro-ecológicas existentes en tres de los seis tipos de régimen fluvial encontrados en la cuenca del Ebro. Mediante la construcción de curvas hidro-ecológicas a lo largo de un gradiente de alteración hidrológica, se pueden sugerir los límites de alteración hidrológica (ELOHAs) para garantizar el buen estado ecológico en cada uno de los tipos fluviales estudiados. Se establecieron ELOHAs en tres de los seis tipos de RNC de la cuenca del Ebro Esta tesis, además, pone en evidencia la falta de datos biológicos asociados a registros de caudal. Para llevar a cabo la implantación de un régimen de caudales ambientales en la cuenca, la ubicación de los puntos de muestreo biológico cercanos a estaciones de aforo es imprescindible para poder extraer relaciones causa-efecto de la gestión hidrológica sobre los ecosistemas dependientes. ABSTRACT In view of a growing freshwater demand because of population raising, improvement of economies and the potential effects of climate change, water resources management has become a challenge for present and future societies. Water policies in Spain have been focused from the 60’s on constructing hydraulic infrastructures, in order to dampen flow variability and granting water availability along the year. Consequently, natural flow regimes have been deeply altered and so the depending habitats and its ecosystems. However, an increasing acknowledgment of societies for preserving healthy freshwater ecosystems started in the 90’s and agreed that to maintain healthy freshwater ecosystems, it was necessary to set environmental flow regimes based on the natural flow variability. The Natural Flow Regime paradigm (Richter et al. 1996, Poff et al. 1997) bases on the hypothesis that freshwater ecosystems are made up by elements adapted to natural flow conditions, and any change on these conditions can provoke deep impacts on the whole system. Environmental flow regime concept consists in designing a flow regime that emulates natural flow characteristics, so that ecosystem structure, functions and services are maintained. ELOHA framework (Ecological Limits of Hydrological Alteration) aims to identify key features of the natural flow regime (NFR) that are needed to maintain and preserve healthy freshwater and riparian ecosystems. Moreover, ELOHA framework aims to quantify thresholds of alteration of these flow features according to ecological impacts. This thesis describes the application of the ELOHA framework in the Ebro River Basin. The Ebro River basin is the second largest basin in Spain and it is highly regulated for human demands. Only the Ebro headwaters tributaries still have completely unimpaired flow regime. The thesis has six chapters and the process is described step by step. The first chapter makes an introduction to the origin of the environmental flow concept and the necessity to come up. The second chapter shows a description of the study area. The third chapter develops a classification of NFRs in the basin based on natural flow data and using exclusively hydrological parameters. Six NFRs were found in the basin: continental Mediterranean-pluvial, nivo-pluvial, continental Mediterranean pluvial (with groundwater-dominated flow pattern), pluvio-oceanic, pluvio-nival-oceanic and Mediterranean. The fourth chapter develops a regionalization of the six NFR types across the basin by using climatic and physiographic variables. The geographical pattern obtained from the regionalization process was consistent with the pattern obtained with the hydrologic classification. The fifth chapter performs a biological validation of both classifications, obtained from the hydrologic classification and the posterior extrapolation. When the aim of flow classification is managing water resources according to ecosystem requirements, a validation based on biological data is compulsory. We found significant differences in reference macroinvertebrate communities between five over the six NFR types identified in the Ebro River basin. Finally, in the sixth chapter we explored the existence of significant and explicative flow alteration-ecological response relationships (FA-E curves) within NFR types in the Ebro River basin. The aim of these curves is to find out thresholds of hydrological alteration (ELOHAs), in order to preserve healthy freshwater ecosystem. We set ELOHA values in three NFR types identified in the Ebro River basin. During the development of this thesis, an inadequate biological monitoring in the Ebro River basin was identified. The design and establishment of appropriate monitoring arrangements is a critical final step in the assessment and implementation of environmental flows. Cause-effect relationships between hydrology and macroinvertebrate community condition are the principal data that sustain FA-E curves. Therefore, both data sites must be closely located, so that the effects of external factors are minimized. The scarce hydro-biological pairs of data available in the basin prevented us to apply the ELOHA method at all NFR types.

Joint 4-D variational stereo reconstruction and camera calibration refinement for oceanic sea state measurements

Validating modern oceanographic theories using models produced through stereo computer vision principles has recently emerged. Space-time (4-D) models of the ocean surface may be generated by stacking a series of 3-D reconstructions independently generated for each time instant or, in a more robust manner, by simultaneously processing several snapshots coherently in a true ?4-D reconstruction.? However, the accuracy of these computer-vision-generated models is subject to the estimations of camera parameters, which may be corrupted under the influence of natural factors such as wind and vibrations. Therefore, removing the unpredictable errors of the camera parameters is necessary for an accurate reconstruction. In this paper, we propose a novel algorithm that can jointly perform a 4-D reconstruction as well as correct the camera parameter errors introduced by external factors. The technique is founded upon variational optimization methods to benefit from their numerous advantages: continuity of the estimated surface in space and time, robustness, and accuracy. The performance of the proposed algorithm is tested using synthetic data produced through computer graphics techniques, based on which the errors of the camera parameters arising from natural factors can be simulated.

La aportación de la Península Ibérica a la tecnología naval analizada a través de la interpretación de los documentos y la reproducción de los buques descritos en ellos (1570-1620)

El período de la Historia comprendido entre 1570 y 1620 nos ha dejado un importante conjunto de documentos relacionados con la construcción naval en la Península Ibérica. En una época convulsa en la que los reinos de España y Portugal se aglutinaron bajo una misma Corona, surgen una serie de manuscritos, libros y leyes que reflejan la creciente preocupación de la sociedad por el tema naval. Entre sus páginas encontramos las descripciones del proceso constructivo de los buques que sus autores consideraban más significativos para las demandas que se planteaban en ese momento. Este proceso que combinaba generación de formas y construcción del buque provenía de una secular tradición nacida en el Mediterráneo. Mediante reglas geométricas sencillas, el constructor naval trazaba las secciones centrales y el perfil de la nao, quedando los extremos de la misma (hasta más de la mitad de la eslora) a su buen hacer y experiencia. Las herramientas informáticas de generación de superficies mediante NURBs (Non- Uniform Rational B-spline) permiten reconstruir las formas de los navíos reproduciendo con fiabilidad las carenas de los mismos a partir de los documentos de la época. Mediante un estudio detallado de interpretación de los textos y transcribiendo los procesos, llegamos a obtener con un buen grado de precisión las carenas de los buques descritos en sus páginas. A partir de ahí y mediante el análisis cualitativo y cuantitativo de los parámetros obtenidos es posible valorar si las soluciones representadas por los barcos respondían a las preguntas planteadas por sus autores , la influencia de factores externos a la construcción naval tales como las regulaciones del Estado o identificar su relación con el germen y la expansión de la teoría que ha determinado los efectos de la Ciencia en la Arquitectura Naval. Comenzando por la nao veneciana de 1550, heredera de la secular tradición constructiva mediterránea, hasta llegar a las Reales Ordenanzas promulgadas en 1618, se reproducen hasta nueve carenas a partir de otros tantos documentos, se dibujan sus planos de formas y se exportan para su análisis hidrostático. El trabajo requiere la realización de otros estudios en paralelo necesarios para entender aquellos factores que formaron parte del desarrollo tecnológico naval como son, las unidades de medida en uso en los astilleros, los distintos sistemas de arqueo impuestos por la Corona y la representación de los diferentes instrumentos geométricos de modificación de los parámetros de diseño. A lo largo del trabajo se dan respuesta a interrogantes planteados por la arqueología en relación con el desarrollo de la arquitectura naval poniendo en evidencia que durante este período quedaron establecidos los fundamentos teórico-prácticos de lo que más adelante se convirtió en la ciencia de la ingeniería naval y se plantean nuevos retos para aquellos que deseen continuar la apasionante tarea de la investigación científica de nuestra historia. ABSTRACT The period of the History comprised between 1570 and 1620 has left an important set of shipbuilding documents in the Iberian Peninsula. In a turbulent time in which the kingdoms of Spain and Portugal were ruled under the same Crown, manuscripts, books and laws that reflect the growing concern of society for the naval theme arose. We found among their pages shipbuilding process descriptions of the more relevant vessels that responded to claims that arose at that time. This process brought together hull generation and shipbuilding and came from a secular tradition born in the Mediterranean. By means of simple geometric rules, the shipbuilder traced the central sections and profile of the ship, leaving the ends thereof (almost half of the length) to its good performance and experience. 3D computer modelling software by NURBs (Non-Uniform Rational B-spline) surfaces helps to reconstruct ships hulls from contemporary documents. Through a detailed texts interpretation and transcription processes, we manage to reach with a good degree of accuracy the ship hulls described in its pages. From there and through qualitative and quantitative analysis of the parameters obtained we can assess whether the solutions represented by ships gave response to the questions raised by the authors, the influence of external factors such as shipbuilding state regulations or identify their relationship to the origin and expansion of the theory that has determined the effects of Science in Naval Architecture. From the 1550 Venetian nao, inheritor of the secular Mediterranean building tradition, to the Royal Ordinances enacted in 1618, as nine hulls are reproduced, their line drawings are traced and exported for analysis hydrostatic. Further studies are needed to understand the factors that were part of shipbuilding technology development as the units of measure in use in shipyards, the different official regulations for calculating ship tonnage and the different geometric instruments to amend the design parameters. The work gives response to questions raised by archaeology in relation to the development of naval architecture highlighting that during this period were established the theoretical and practical foundations of what later became the science of naval engineering and raising new challenges for those wishing to continue the exciting task of scientific research of our History.

Desarrollo de una plataforma de gestión de un laboratorio automatizado

El presente TFG está enmarcado en el contexto de la biología sintética (más concretamente en la automatización de protocolos) y representa una parte de los avances en este sector. Se trata de una plataforma de gestión de laboratorios autónomos. El resultado tecnológico servirá para ayudar al operador a coordinar las máquinas disponibles en un laboratorio a la hora de ejecutar un experimento basado en un protocolo de biología sintética. En la actualidad los experimentos biológicos tienen una tasa de éxito muy baja en laboratorios convencionales debido a la cantidad de factores externos que intervienen durante el protocolo. Además estos experimentos son caros y requieren de un operador pendiente de la ejecución en cada fase del protocolo. La automatización de laboratorios puede suponer un aumento de la tasa de éxito, además de una reducción de costes y de riesgos para los trabajadores en el entorno del laboratorio. En la presente propuesta se pretende que se dividan las distintas entidades de un laboratorio en unidades funcionales que serán los elementos a ser coordinados por la herramienta resultado del TFG. Para aportar flexibilidad a la herramienta se utilizará una arquitectura orientada a servicios (SOA). Cada unidad funcional desplegará un servicio web proporcionando su funcionalidad al resto del laboratorio. SOA es esencial para la comunicación entre máquinas ya que permite la abstracción del tipo de máquina que se trate y como esté implementada su funcionalidad. La principal dificultad del TFG consiste en lidiar con las dificultades de integración y coordinación de las distintas unidades funcionales para poder gestionar adecuadamente el ciclo de vida de un experimento. Para ello se ha realizado un análisis de herramientas disponibles de software libre. Finalmente se ha escogido la plataforma Apache Camel como marco sobre el que crear la herramienta específica planteada en el TFG. Apache Camel juega un papel importantísimo en este proyecto, ya que establece las capas de conexión a los distintos servicios y encamina los mensajes oportunos a cada servicio basándose en el contenido del fichero de entrada. Para la preparación del prototipo se han desarrollado una serie de servicios web que permitirán realizar pruebas y demostraciones de concepto de la herramienta en sí. Además se ha desarrollado una versión preliminar de la aplicación web que utilizará el operador del laboratorio para gestionar las peticiones, decidiendo que protocolo se ejecuta a continuación y siguiendo el flujo de tareas del experimento.---ABSTRACT---The current TFG is bound by synthetic biology context (more specifically in the protocol automation) and represents an element of progression in this sector. It consists of a management platform for automated laboratories. The technological result will help the operator to coordinate the available machines in a lab, this way an experiment based on a synthetic biological protocol, could be executed. Nowadays, the biological experiments have a low success rate in conventional laboratories, due to the amount of external factors that intrude during the protocol. On top of it, these experiments are usually expensive and require of an operator monitoring at every phase of the protocol. The laboratories’ automation might mean an increase in the success rate, and also a reduction of costs and risks for the lab workers. The current approach is hoped to divide the different entities in a laboratory in functional units. Those will be the elements to be coordinated by the tool that results from this TFG. In order to provide flexibility to the system, a service-oriented architecture will be used (SOA). Every functional unit will deploy a web service, publishing its functionality to the rest of the lab. SOA is essential to facilitate the communication between machines, due to the fact that it provides an abstraction on the type of the machine and how its functionality is implemented. The main difficulty of this TFG consists on grappling with the integration and coordination problems, being able to manage successfully the lifecycle of an experiment. For that, a benchmark has been made on the available open source tools. Finally Apache Camel has been chosen as a framework over which the tool defined in the TFG will be created. Apache Camel plays a fundamental role in this project, given that it establishes the connection layers to the different services and routes the suitable messages to each service, based on the received file’s content. For the prototype development a number of services that will allow it to perform demonstrations and concept tests have been deployed. Furthermore a preliminary version of the webapp has been developed. It will allow the laboratory operator managing petitions, to decide what protocol goes next as it executes the flow of the experiment’s tasks.

GovCloud: the usage of cloud computing in public organizations

It has been shown that cloud computing brings cost benefits and promotes efficiency in the operations of the organizations, no matter what their type or size. However, few public organizations are benefiting from this new paradigm shift in the way the organizations consume and manage computational resources. The objective of this thesis is to analyze both internal and external factors that may influence the adoption of cloud computing by public organizations and propose possible strategies that can assist these organizations in their path to cloud usage. In order to achieve this objective, a SWOT analysis has been conducted, detecting internal factors (strengths and weaknesses) and external factors (opportunities and threats) that can influence the adoption of a governmental cloud. With the application of a TOWS matrix, by combining the internal and external factors, a list of possible strategies have been formulated to be used as a guide to decision-making related to the transition to a cloud environment.

A single response mechanism is responsible for evolutionary adaptive variation in a bird’s laying date

Many proximate factors determine a bird’s laying date, including environmental and social stimuli as well as individual responses to internal and external factors. However, the relative importance of these factors has not been experimentally demonstrated. Here we show that (i) large differences in the onset of first clutches between different populations result from variation in different responses to photoperiod and not from variation in responses to any other proximate factors and (ii) the same response mechanism causes maladaptive laying dates in habitats modified by humans. We present, to our knowledge, the first experimental demonstration that a single response mechanism is responsible for evolutionary adaptive intraspecific variation in a vertebrate life history trait.

Gerenciamento da qualidade e do custo do transporte de cargas por ônibus interurbano de passageiros

Algumas empresas de transporte intermunicipal e interestadual de transporte rodoviário de passageiros, objetivando maiores lucros, têm se dedicado ao transporte de determinados tipos de cargas e encomendas, aproveitando-se do fato do bagageiro do ônibus ser uma oferta fixa para o transporte. No entanto, percebe-se algumas deficiências de caráter operacional que podem comprometer a qualidade e o custo do serviço prestado. Portanto, essa pesquisa tem por finalidade analisar o transporte de cargas executado por ônibus sob a ótica da qualidade e do custo. Partindo-se da adaptação do modelo clássico de Parasuraman, bem como da adoção de direcionadores de custo, de acordo com o método de custeio baseado em atividades, pretende-se apresentar como as principais atividades que compõem os processos do transporte rodoviário de cargas são afetadas durante a prestação do serviço. Para tanto, é apresentada uma análise crítica qualitativa que estabelece a forma como essas atividades são influenciadas pelos gaps do modelo de qualidade proposto e como as mesmas influenciam o custo operacional. Tal análise é resultado de duas pesquisas realizadas. A primeira pesquisa foi de profundidade numa empresa que atua no segmento. Foram obtidos alguns indicadores de desempenhos que são vitais para que as atividades sejam executadas de acordo com as conformidades previstas. A segunda pesquisa, via questionário, possibilitou identificar as principais expectativas dos clientes. Mesmo com o índice reduzido de respostas do questionário, foram levantados pontos que são extremamente fundamentais para a formação das expectativas dos clientes. Entre esses pontos destacam-se o tempo de atendimento, o treinamento dos funcionários e o cumprimento dos horários preestabelecidos. Dos processos que caracterizam o transporte de cargas, deve-se destacar o processo de entrega que além dos problemas provenientes da operação propriamente dita, sofre ainda a interferência, em algumas atividades, da participação direta do cliente e dos fatores externos da operação (ambiente não controlado).

Integração morfológica e modularidade em crânios das espécies do grupo Rhinella granulosa

Os conceitos e métodos provindos das teorias de integração morfológica e de genética quantitativa formam o arcabouço teórico para o estudo da evolução de estruturas complexas, compostas de múltiplos caracteres que interagem entre si. Nesse trabalho, utilizamos o crânio como modelo de estrutura complexa e estudamos sua diversificação nas espécies de sapo do grupo Rhinella granulosa. As perguntas do trabalho foram: (1) A organização da (co)variação é similar entre as espécies?; (2) A organização da (co)variação é modular nas espécies, conforme expectativas baseadas em desenvolvimento ou função?; (3) Fatores externos, como filogenia e clima, estruturam a similaridade no padrão de covariação entre as espécies?; (4) A diversificação da morfologia média do crânio se deu por deriva ou seleção natural?; (5) A divergência na morfologia média do crânio está associada à variação climática entre as espécies?; e finalmente (6) Restrições evolutivas atuaram na divergência entre as espécies? Os espécimes foram escaneados e validamos o uso de imagens 3D para a mensuração de 21 distâncias lineares. Os crânios das espécies foram representados como matrizes fenotípicas (P) de covariância e de correlação entre as distâncias. A similaridade entre as P das espécies é alta. As P de todas as espécies se conformam a um padrão modular compatível com interações funcionais entre ossos. As diferenças entre as P concentram-se no rostro e são associadas a diferenças no clima entre as espécies. Detectamos sinal de seleção natural nos nós mais basais da filogenia e variação local no crânio está associada à variação na sazonalidade da chuva entre as espécies. Restrições evolutivas atuaram na diversificação do crânio das espécies, defletindo as respostas evolutivas para tamanho. Concluímos que tanto seleção estabilizadora e direcional, conectadas à variação climática, quanto restrições evolutivas atuaram na diversificação do crânio das espécies