Continuous-time formulation of reaction-diffusion processes on heterogeneous metapopulations

We present the derivation of the continuous-time equations governing the limit dynamics of discrete-time reaction-diffusion processes defined on heterogeneous metapopulations. We show that, when a rigorous time limit is performed, the lack of an epidemic threshold in the spread of infections is not limited to metapopulations with a scale-free architecture, as it has been predicted from dynamical equations in which reaction and diffusion occur sequentially in time

El just-in-time i la fallida dels sistemes productius al Japó al març de 2011

El document descriu com el just-in-time va afavorir la fallida dels sistemes productius de les empreses d'automoció al Japó durant el gran terratrèmol de l'any 2011.

On the computation of reducible invariant tori on a parallel computer

We present an algorithm for the computation of reducible invariant tori of discrete dynamical systems that is suitable for tori of dimensions larger than 1. It is based on a quadratically convergent scheme that approximates, at the same time, the Fourier series of the torus, its Floquet transformation, and its Floquet matrix. The Floquet matrix describes the linearization of the dynamics around the torus and, hence, its linear stability. The algorithm presents a high degree of parallelism, and the computational effort grows linearly with the number of Fourier modes needed to represent the solution. For these reasons it is a very good option to compute quasi-periodic solutions with several basic frequencies. The paper includes some examples (flows) to show the efficiency of the method in a parallel computer. In these flows we compute invariant tori of dimensions up to 5, by taking suitable sections.

Mechanistic population Models in Biology: Model Derivation and Application

In general, models of ecological systems can be broadly categorized as ’top-down’ or ’bottom-up’ models, based on the hierarchical level that the model processes are formulated on. The structure of a top-down, also known as phenomenological, population model can be interpreted in terms of population characteristics, but it typically lacks an interpretation on a more basic level. In contrast, bottom-up, also known as mechanistic, population models are derived from assumptions and processes on a more basic level, which allows interpretation of the model parameters in terms of individual behavior. Both approaches, phenomenological and mechanistic modelling, can have their advantages and disadvantages in different situations. However, mechanistically derived models might be better at capturing the properties of the system at hand, and thus give more accurate predictions. In particular, when models are used for evolutionary studies, mechanistic models are more appropriate, since natural selection takes place on the individual level, and in mechanistic models the direct connection between model parameters and individual properties has already been established. The purpose of this thesis is twofold. Firstly, a systematical way to derive mechanistic discrete-time population models is presented. The derivation is based on combining explicitly modelled, continuous processes on the individual level within a reproductive period with a discrete-time maturation process between reproductive periods. Secondly, as an example of how evolutionary studies can be carried out in mechanistic models, the evolution of the timing of reproduction is investigated. Thus, these two lines of research, derivation of mechanistic population models and evolutionary studies, are complementary to each other.

Diskreettiaikainen liukuvan moodin säätö kiinteäoksidipolttokennon DC-tasonnostossa

Huoli ympäristön tilasta ja fossiilisten polttoaineiden hinnan nousu ovat vauhdittaneet tutkimusta uusien energialähteiden löytämiseksi. Polttokennot ovat yksi lupaavimmista tekniikoista etenkin hajautetun energiantuotannon, varavoimalaitosten sekä liikennevälineiden alueella. Polttokenno on tehonlähteenä kuitenkin hyvin epäideaalinen, ja se asettaa tehoelektroniikalle lukuisia erityisvaatimuksia. Polttokennon kytkeminen sähköverkkoon on tavallisesti toteutettu käyttämällä galvaanisesti erottavaa DC/DC hakkuria sekä vaihtosuuntaajaa sarjassa. Polttokennon kulumisen estämiseksi tehoelektroniikalta vaaditaan tarkkaa polttokennon lähtövirran hallintaa. Perinteisesti virran hallinta on toteutettu säätämällä hakkurin tulovirtaa PI (Proportional and Integral) tai PID (Proportional, Integral and Derivative) -säätimellä. Hakkurin epälineaarisuudesta johtuen tällainen ratkaisu ei välttämättä toimi kaukana linearisointipisteestä. Lisäksi perinteiset säätimet ovat herkkiä mallinnusvirheille. Tässä diplomityössä on esitetty polttokennon jännitettä nostavan hakkurin tilayhtälökeskiarvoistusmenetelmään perustuva malli, sekä malliin perustuva diskreettiaikainen integroiva liukuvan moodin säätö. Esitetty säätö on luonteeltaan epälineaarinen ja se soveltuu epälineaaristen ja heikosti tunnettujen järjestelmien säätämiseen.

Service quality and reliability assessment of mobile communication infrastructure

The service quality of any sector has two major aspects namely technical and functional. Technical quality can be attained by maintaining technical specification as decided by the organization. Functional quality refers to the manner which service is delivered to customer which can be assessed by the customer feed backs. A field survey was conducted based on the management tool SERVQUAL, by designing 28 constructs under 7 dimensions of service quality. Stratified sampling techniques were used to get 336 valid responses and the gap scores of expectations and perceptions are analyzed using statistical techniques to identify the weakest dimension. To assess the technical aspects of availability six months live outage data of base transceiver were collected. The statistical and exploratory techniques were used to model the network performance. The failure patterns have been modeled in competing risk models and probability distribution of service outage and restorations were parameterized. Since the availability of network is a function of the reliability and maintainability of the network elements, any service provider who wishes to keep up their service level agreements on availability should be aware of the variability of these elements and its effects on interactions. The availability variations were studied by designing a discrete time event simulation model with probabilistic input parameters. The probabilistic distribution parameters arrived from live data analysis was used to design experiments to define the availability domain of the network under consideration. The availability domain can be used as a reference for planning and implementing maintenance activities. A new metric is proposed which incorporates a consistency index along with key service parameters that can be used to compare the performance of different service providers. The developed tool can be used for reliability analysis of mobile communication systems and assumes greater significance in the wake of mobile portability facility. It is also possible to have a relative measure of the effectiveness of different service providers.

Grado de predicción del valor de las acciones ante nuevas emisiones en el sector de extracción de petróleo crudo y gas natural en Colombia, mediante modelos de caos y análisis recurrente

El presente trabajo se enfoca en el análisis de las acciones de Ecopetrol, empresa representativa del mercado de Extracción de Petróleo y Gas natural en Colombia (SP&G), durante el periodo, del 22 de mayo de 2012 al 30 de agosto de 2013. Durante este espacio de tiempo la acción sufrió una serie de variaciones en su precio las cuales se relacionaban a la nueva emisión de acciones que realizo la Compañía. Debido a este cambio en el comportamiento del activo se generaron una serie de interrogantes sobre, (i) la reacción del mercado ante diferentes sucesos ocurridos dentro de las firmas y en su entorno (ii) la capacidad de los modelos financieros de predecir y entender las posibles reacciones observadas de los activos (entendidos como deuda). Durante el desarrollo del presente trabajo se estudiará la pertinencia del mismo, en línea con los objetivos y desarrollos de la Escuela de Administración de la Universidad del Rosario. Puntualmente en temas de Perdurabilidad direccionados a la línea de Gerencia. Donde el entendimiento de la deuda como parte del funcionamiento actual y como variable determinante para el comportamiento futuro de las organizaciones tiene especial importancia. Una vez se clarifica la relación entre el presente trabajo y la Universidad, se desarrollan diferentes conceptos y teorías financieras que han permitido conocer y estudiar de manera más específica el mercado, con el objetivo de reducir los riesgos de las inversiones realizadas. Éste análisis se desarrolla en dos partes: (i) modelos de tiempo discreto y (ii) modelos de tiempo continúo. Una vez se tiene mayor claridad sobre los modelos estudiados hasta el momento se realiza el respectivo análisis de los datos mediante modelos de caos y análisis recurrente los cuales nos permiten entender que las acciones se comportan de manera caótica pero que establecen ciertas relaciones entre los precios actuales y los históricos, desarrollando comportamientos definidos entre los precios, las cantidades, el entorno macroeconómico y la organización. De otra parte, se realiza una descripción del mercado de petróleo en Colombia y se estudia a Ecopetrol como empresa y eje principal del mercado descrito en el país. La compañía Ecopetrol es representativa debido a que es uno de los mayores aportantes fiscales del país, pues sus ingresos se desprenden de bienes que se encuentran en el subsuelo por lo que la renta petrolera incluye impuestos a la producción transformación y consumo (Ecopetrol, 2003). Por último, se presentan los resultados del trabajo, así como el análisis que da lugar para presentar ciertas recomendaciones a partir de lo observado.

Relationship between åström control and the kalman linear regulator — Caines revisited

The relationship between minimum variance and minimum expected quadratic loss feedback controllers for linear univariate discrete-time stochastic systems is reviewed by taking the approach used by Caines. It is shown how the two methods can be regarded as providing identical control actions as long as a noise-free measurement state-space model is employed.

Auto-weighted minimum-variance self-tuning controller

A self-tuning controller which automatically assigns weightings to control and set-point following is introduced. This discrete-time single-input single-output controller is based on a generalized minimum-variance control strategy. The automatic on-line selection of weightings is very convenient, especially when the system parameters are unknown or slowly varying with respect to time, which is generally considered to be the type of systems for which self-tuning control is useful. This feature also enables the controller to overcome difficulties with non-minimum phase systems.

Weighted input predictive controller

A discrete-time algorithm is presented which is based on a predictive control scheme in the form of dynamic matrix control. A set of control inputs are calculated and made available at each time instant, the actual input applied being a weighted summation of the inputs within the set. The algorithm is directly applicable in a self-tuning format and is therefore suitable for slowly time-varying systems in a noisy environment.

EFFECTIVE NETWORKS FOR REAL-TIME DISTRIBUTED PROCESSING

This paper applies the concepts and methods of complex networks to the development of models and simulations of master-slave distributed real-time systems by introducing an upper bound in the allowable delivery time of the packets with computation results. Two representative interconnection models are taken into account: Uniformly random and scale free (Barabasi-Albert), including the presence of background traffic of packets. The obtained results include the identification of the uniformly random interconnectivity scheme as being largely more efficient than the scale-free counterpart. Also, increased latency tolerance of the application provides no help under congestion.

RUMOR PROCESSES ON N

We study four discrete-time stochastic systems on N, modeling processes of rumor spreading. The involved individuals can either have an active or a passive role, speaking up or asking for the rumor. The appetite for spreading or hearing the rumor is represented by a set of random variables whose distributions may depend on the individuals. Our goal is to understand-based on the distribution of the random variables-whether the probability of having an infinite set of individuals knowing the rumor is positive or not.

A note on Chambers's "long memory and aggregation in macroeconomic time series"

Chambers (1998) explores the interaction between long memory and aggregation. For continuous-time processes, he takes the aliasing effect into account when studying temporal aggregation. For discrete-time processes, however, he seems to fail to do so. This note gives the spectral density function of temporally aggregated long memory discrete-time processes in light of the aliasing effect. The results are different from those in Chambers (1998) and are supported by a small simulation exercise. As a result, the order of aggregation may not be invariant to temporal aggregation, specifically if d is negative and the aggregation is of the stock type.

Adaptive filter feature identification for structural health monitoring in an aeronautical panel

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Controle adaptativo por modelo de referencia e estrutura variável discreto no tempo

With the technology progess, embedded systems using adaptive techniques are being used frequently. One of these techniques is the Variable Structure Model- Reference Adaptive Control (VS-MRAC). The implementation of this technique in embedded systems, requires consideration of a sampling period which if not taken into consideration, can adversely affect system performance and even takes the system to instability. This work proposes a stability analysis of a discrete-time VS-MRAC accomplished for SISO linear time-invariant plants with relative degree one. The aim is to analyse the in uence of the sampling period in the system performance and the relation of this period with the chattering and system instability