Unit roots and the welfare gains of cycle smoothing

li consumption is log-Normal and is decomposed into a linear deterministic trend and a stationary cycle, a surprising result in business-cycle research is that the welfare gains of eliminating uncertainty are relatively small. A possible problem with such calculations is the dichotomy between the trend and the cyclical components of consumption. In this paper, we abandon this dichotomy in two ways. First, we decompose consumption into a deterministic trend, a stochastic trend, and a stationary cyclical component, calculating the welfare gains of cycle smoothing. Calculations are carried forward only after a careful discussion of the limitations of macroeconomic policy. Second, still under the stochastic-trend model, we incorporate a variable slope for consumption depending negatively on the overall volatility in the economy. Results are obtained for a variety of preference parameterizations, parameter values, and different macroeconomic-policy goals. They show that, once the dichotomy in the decomposition in consumption is abandoned, the welfare gains of cycle smoothing may be substantial, especially due to the volatility effect.

What causes violent crime?

This study uses a new data set of crime ratesfor a large sample of countriesfor the period 1970- 1994, based on information from the United Nations World Crime Surveys, to ana/yze the determinants ofnational homicide and robbery rates. A simple model of the incentives to commit crimes is proposed, which explicit/y considers possible causes of the persistence of crime over time (criminal inertia). Several econometric mode/s are estimated, attempting to capture the . determinonts of crime rates across countries and over time. The empirical mode/s are first run for cross-sections and then applie'd to panel data. The former focus on erplanatory variables that do not change markedly over time, while the panel data techniques consider both the eflect of the business cyc1e (i.e., GDP growth rate) on the crime rate and criminal inertia (accountedfor by the inclusion of the /agged crime rate as an explanatory variable). The panel data techniques a/so consider country-specific eflects, the joint endogeneity of some of the erplanatory variables, and lhe existence of some types of measurement e"ors aJjlicting the crime data. The results showthat increases in income inequality raise crime rates, dete"ence eflects are significant, crime tends to be counter-cyclical, and criminal inertia is significant even after controlling for other potential determinants of homicide and robbery rates.

O poder dos sindicatos e a lucratividade das firmas no Reino Unido

In t-his paper an attempt is made to assess the behaviour of the rate of return on sales of unionised firms as compared to the non-unionised ones in the late 1980s in the U.K. The main aim is to examine what has happened to the rela.LluH.51úp ~o::;~w=1L ul~uuisation anel }Jfolltauiiüy after the changes in the union legislation, competition environrnent and cyclical variations that took place over this period. The impact of different forms of union-firm bargaining on the union-profitability effect is also examined. The data reveal that the negative union effect on profitability exists, even after controlling for firm specific fixed effects, that it is larger where unions negotiate jointly with the firm as part of industry leveI bargaining, but that it has been sharply reduced over the 1980s.

Histórias de empreendedores: significados, narrativas e artefatos

Compreender o processo de significação e ressignificação que o empreendedor atribui ao novo negócio através das etapas de busca, percepção e interpretação propostas por Daft e Weick (1984) ao longo do tempo. Design/metodologia/abordagem: Sob uma perspectiva interpretativista, este trabalho se valeu de abordagens qualitativas. Foram utilizadas téc nicas de análise de narrativas, antenarrativas e análise de dados qualitativos sobre entrevistas realizadas com 11 empreendedores digitais em dois momentos diferentes. Descobertas: as análises sugerem que o empreendedor ressignifica seu negócio com o passar do tempo, provavelmente em função do nível de sucesso do empreendimento. Esta pesquisa corrobora a proposição de Daft & Weick (1984) acerca da existência de um processo cíclico de busca, interpretação e ação que levaria a um contínuo de ressignificações. Implicações da pesquisa: Para os empreendedores (practioners), este trabalho lança luz sobre as possibilidades de uso das narrativas como recursos para influência e disseminação de significados (sensegiving). Para acadêmicos, este trabalho oferece melhor conceituação do constructo ‘artefato estratégico’, além de avançar na consolidação dos métodos de análise de narrativas. Originalidade/Valor: O valor dessa pesquisa se dá em fortalecer os métodos de análise de narrativas, além de apresentar um possível caminho para capturar os elementos de ressignificação. Além disso, ao propor um framework de análise e construção de narrativas empreendedoras, este trabalho pode auxiliar pesquisadores e practioners

Estímulos fiscais em um modelo estrutural para o Brasil

A atual crise econômica internacional mostrou que o combate a hiatos do produto utilizando apenas a política monetária pode não ser suficiente. Neste contexto, questões sobre a eficácia de estímulos fiscais temporários como política anticíclica foram levantadas, e adicionalmente quais estímulos fiscais seriam mais benéficos às economias. Este trabalho desenvolveu um modelo estrutural DSGE com características e calibrações para a economia brasileira. O objetivo era realizar um exercício com choques fiscais expansionistas, de modo a analisar seus multiplicadores fiscais. Os resultados sugerem que o impacto de gastos correntes do governo obteve melhor multiplicador fiscal, tanto no curto quanto no longo prazo, porém teve efeitos acumulativos decrescentes. Por outro lado, o choque de diminuição da alíquota dos impostos sobre consumo obteve baixos multiplicadores fiscais a curto prazo, porém com efeitos crescentes a longo prazo, alcançando multiplicadores de longo prazo similares aos dos gastos do governo.

Cyclicality of SME Lending and Government Involvement in Banks

Recent regulatory efforts aim at lowering the cyclicality of bank lending because of its potential detrimental effects on financial stability and the real economy. We investigate the cyclicality of SME lending by local banks with vs. without a public mandate, controlling for location, size, loan maturity, funding structure, liquidity, profitability, and credit demand-side factors. The public mandate is set by local governments and stipulates a deviation from strict profit maximization and a sustainable provision of financial services to local customers. We find that banks with a public mandate are 25 percent less cyclical than other local banks. The result is credit supply-side driven and especially strong for savings banks with high liquidity and stable deposit funding. Our findings have implications for the banking structure, financial stability and the finance-growth nexus in a local context.

Desafios na avaliação de incorporadoras imobiliárias brasileiras de capital aberto

Primeiramente, além de fazer análise resumida do setor de incorporação imobiliária brasileiro, a dissertação argumenta porque métodos tradicionais de valuation são inapropriados para avaliar incorporadoras e construtoras brasileiras. Entre os pontos levantados estão: as regras contábeis do setor, o modelo de negócios de incorporação no Brasil, a natureza cíclica do negócio, o descasamento entre geração de caixa e reconhecimento de receitas, e o tipo de informação disponibilizada pelas empresas listadas na bolsa de valores. Em seguida, o estudo sugere um método mais adequado, partindo de um conceito de Soma das Partes, onde calcula-se separadamente o valor líquido dos ativos, do banco de terrenos e dos projetos futuros. Metodologias semelhantes começaram a ser utilizadas por alguns bancos de investimento em anos recentes, porém nunca foram discutidas de forma mais acadêmica. Argumenta-se que o método proposto parece adequado, pois não só produz resultados compatíveis com a intuição econômica, como também permite que o usuário faça análises de sensibilidade de forma simples e direta. Finalmente, ao comparar a evolução no período entre 2008 e 2014 dos preços das ações de algumas incorporadoras imobiliárias listadas, discute-se quais ações estariam subavaliadas e quais estariam superavaliadas.

Cyclicality of SME lending and government involvement in banks

Recent regulatory efforts aim at lowering the cyclicality of bank lending because of its potential detrimental effects on financial stability and the real economy. We investigate the cyclicality of SME lending by local banks with vs. without a public mandate, controlling for location, size, loan maturity, funding structure, liquidity, profitability, and credit demand-side factors. The public mandate is set by local governments and stipulates a deviation from strict profit maximization and a sustainable provision of financial services to local customers. We find that banks with a public mandate are 25 percent less cyclical than other local banks. The result is credit supply-side driven and especially strong for savings banks with high liquidity and stable deposit funding. Our findings have implications for the banking structure, financial stability and the finance-growth nexus in a local context.

Estudo de modelos composicionais de óleo na injeção contínua de vapor

The objective of the thermal recovery is to heat the resevoir and the oil in it to increase its recovery. In the Potiguar river basin there are located several heavy oil reservoirs whose primary recovery energy provides us with a little oil flow, which makes these reservoirs great candidates for application of a method of recovery advanced of the oil, especially the thermal. The steam injection can occur on a cyclical or continuous manner. The continuous steam injection occurs through injection wells, which in its vicinity form a zone of steam that expands itself, having as a consequence the displace of the oil with viscosity and mobility improved towards the producing wells. Another possible mechanism of displacement of oil in reservoirs subjected to continuous injection of steam is the distillation of oil by steam, which at high temperatures; their lighter fractions can be vaporized by changing the composition of the oil produced, of the oil residual or to shatter in the amount of oil produced. In this context, this paper aims to study the influence of compositional models in the continuous injection of steam through in the analysis of some parameters such as flow injection steam and temperature of injection. Were made various leading comparative analysis taking the various models of fluid, varying from a good elementary, with 03 pseudocomponents to a modeling of fluids with increasing numbers of pseudocomponents. A commercial numerical simulator was used for the study from a homogeneous reservoir model with similar features to those found in northeastern Brazil. Some conclusions as the increasing of the simulation time with increasing number of pseudocomponents, the significant influence of flow injection on cumulative production of oil and little influence of the number of pseudocomponents in the flows and cumulative production of oil were found

Política de assistência social no Brasil: uma análise a partir das tipologias de políticas públicas

The study of public policy typologies is still a knowledge field which lacks more embracing and applicable studies to different sectors. On that perspective, this work, Social Assistance Policy in Brazil: an analysis from the typologies on public policy, pursues to add the relevant literature to social assistance what focus on the public policy ratings. Moreover, it concerns about a study on the the national policy of social assistance implemented by the Brazilian government from the theoretical referrence of the public policy typologies. For that reason, the referential framework of the public policies as well as the analisys of its fundamentals/principles that are indispensable for achieving a bigger goal, that is to tipify the social assistance policy based on the different public policy typologies and characterize it through the main elements which are intrinsec to the social political and economic reality of Brazil. Thus, the issue suggested for the work is: what is the profile and the political trajectory of the social assistance implemented by the Brazilian Government? How it presents, above all, the features of a distributive, focused and lawful policy, the work has been done througho the following hypothesis: the social assistance policy in Brazil has been of universal, assistance, and focusing aspects. For each of those features granted to the social assistance policy, there is a gathering of changes according to the social, political and economic moment of the country and that stands out due to the different institutions within every cyclical period. The work showed that besides the social policy has gone through meaningful changes during the last decades, even though the adoption of the Organic Law of Social Assistance and its rules, some of the mentioned characteristics still remain, as long as the State s primacy goes on being the economic policies over the dubbed social policies. Notwithstanding, the social assistance will build up itself from the materialization of the growing of the social rights related to the State, but also assuming an important role on the amplified reproducing process regarding the capitalist social relations

Um sistema para estimação da vazão de gás de poços produzindo por Plunger Lift para vaso separador de teste em plataformas de petróleo

This work intends to analyze the behavior of the gas flow of plunger lift wells producing to well testing separators in offshore production platforms to aim a technical procedure to estimate the gas flow during the slug production period. The motivation for this work appeared from the expectation of some wells equipped with plunger lift method by PETROBRAS in Ubarana sea field located at Rio Grande do Norte State coast where the produced fluids measurement is made in well testing separators at the platform. The oil artificial lift method called plunger lift is used when the available energy of the reservoir is not high enough to overcome all the necessary load losses to lift the oil from the bottom of the well to the surface continuously. This method consists, basically, in one free piston acting as a mechanical interface between the formation gas and the produced liquids, greatly increasing the well s lifting efficiency. A pneumatic control valve is mounted at the flow line to control the cycles. When this valve opens, the plunger starts to move from the bottom to the surface of the well lifting all the oil and gas that are above it until to reach the well test separator where the fluids are measured. The well test separator is used to measure all the volumes produced by the well during a certain period of time called production test. In most cases, the separators are designed to measure stabilized flow, in other words, reasonably constant flow by the use of level and pressure electronic controllers (PLC) and by assumption of a steady pressure inside the separator. With plunger lift wells the liquid and gas flow at the surface are cyclical and unstable what causes the appearance of slugs inside the separator, mainly in the gas phase, because introduce significant errors in the measurement system (e.g.: overrange error). The flow gas analysis proposed in this work is based on two mathematical models used together: i) a plunger lift well model proposed by Baruzzi [1] with later modifications made by Bolonhini [2] to built a plunger lift simulator; ii) a two-phase separator model (gas + liquid) based from a three-phase separator model (gas + oil + water) proposed by Nunes [3]. Based on the models above and with field data collected from the well test separator of PUB-02 platform (Ubarana sea field) it was possible to demonstrate that the output gas flow of the separator can be estimate, with a reasonable precision, from the control signal of the Pressure Control Valve (PCV). Several models of the System Identification Toolbox from MATLAB® were analyzed to evaluate which one better fit to the data collected from the field. For validation of the models, it was used the AIC criterion, as well as a variant of the cross validation criterion. The ARX model performance was the best one to fit to the data and, this way, we decided to evaluate a recursive algorithm (RARX) also with real time data. The results were quite promising that indicating the viability to estimate the output gas flow rate from a plunger lift well producing to a well test separator, with the built-in information of the control signal to the PCV

Sonhos antecipatórios: influência de um evento significativo da vigília na atividade onírica

In most cultures, dreams are believed to predict the future on occasion. Several neurophysiological studies indicate that the function of sleep and dreams is to consolidate and transform memories, in a cyclical process of creation, selection and generalization of conjectures about the reality. The aim of the research presented here was to investigate the possible adaptative role of anticipatory dreams. We sought to determine the relationship between dream and waking in a context in which the adaptive success of the individual was really at risk, in order to mobilize more strongly the oneiric activity. We used the entrance examination of the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte (UFRN) as a significant waking event in which performance could be independently quantified. Through a partnership with UFRN, we contacted by e-mail 3000 candidates to the 2009 examination. In addition, 150 candidates were approached personally. Candidates who agreed to participate in the study (n = 94) completed questionnaires specific to the examination and were asked to describe their dreams during the examinaton period. The examination performance of each candidate in the entrance examination was provided by the UFRN to the researcher. A total of 45 participants reported dreams related to the examination. Our results show a positive correlation between performance on the examination and anticipatory dreams with the event, both in the comparison of performance on objective and discursive, and in final approval (in the group that not dreamed with the exam the rate of general approval, 22,45%, was similar to that found in the selection process as a whole, 22.19%, while for the group that dreamed with the examination that rate was 35.56%). The occurrence of anticipatory dreams reflectes increased concern during waking (psychobiological mobilization) related to the future event, as indicated by higher scores of fear and apprehension, and major changes in daily life, in patterns of mood and sleep, in the group that reported testrelated dreams. Furthermore, the data suggest a role of dreams in the determination of environmentally relevant behavior of the vigil, simulating possible scenarios of success (dream with approval) and failure (nightmares) to maximize the adaptive success of the individual

Evaluation of WC-10Ni thermal spray coating with shot peening on the fatigue strength of AISI 4340 steel

Fatigue failure is a result of a crack initiation and propagation, in consequence of a cyclical load. In aeronautical components as landing gear the fatigue strength is an important parameter to be considered in project, as well as the corrosion and wear resistance.The thermal sprayed HVOF technology it's normally used to protect components against wear and corrosion, and are being considerate an alternative to replace chromium by the aeronautical industry. With respect to fatigue life, the HVOF technique induces residual stress on the interface. In the case of tensile residual stresses, the initiation and propagation phases of fatigue process are accelerated; on the other hand, compressive residual stresses close to the surface may increase fatigue life. The technique to improve the coated materials fatigue strength is the shot peening process, which induces residual stress in the surface in order to delay the nucleation and propagation process.The aim of present study is to compare the influence of WC-10 Ni coating applied by HVOF on the fatigue strength of AISI 4340 steel, with and without shot peening. S-N curves were obtained in axial fatigue tests for material base, and tungsten carbide coated specimens. (C) 2010 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Arranjos urbanos e subjetivos contemporâneos na invenção de territórios turísticos

We seek consistency empirical and analytical rigor to the concept of touristification in the course of the contemporary arrangements of subjectivity and urbanity stations through a landscape of social (dis)encounters between residents and foreigners living in the capital of Rio Grande do Norte, Natal. In the last three decades the city has become a major destination country for national and international tourism, making tourism an important monitor of choreography in search of synchrony between cities and subjectivities, orchestrated by the cyclical crises and the relentless battle for systemic capitalistic expansion and survival. We proceed with an ethnographic and cartographic inspiration in Ponta Negra, where the waterfront redevelopment in 2000 conducted by the government, influenced the implementation of various establishments, services and practices related to the construction of Natal s major industry hub of tourism and entertainment. We proposed an arch-genealogy of touristification inspared on Michel Foucault analytical perspective, increased by authors in confluence or in different theoretical and methodological approaches, among which stand out Karl Marx, Gilles Deleuze and Felix Guattari, Michael Hardt and Antonio Negri. The reflections that initially turned to the advancement of the sphere of consumerism as the issue capable of articulating the developmental trajectory of the capitalist system and the practice of tourism, promoting some effects (un)desirable in the conflictual dynamics of the condition of the district of Ponta Negra, territory each again (re) produces the designs to meet the consumption by affluent portion of the population and foreign, encountering social exclusion and inclusion differentiated a growing trend. We go forward with an analysis of the "liberation of desire" phenomenal features of the process of producing subjective, providing a breakdown of the recent world s financial crisis initially, but proved social and political crisis also, through a plot derived from the operation of real estate speculation, which Natal is mainly caught through touristification, showing the outlines of a generalized crisis in establishing a new order buoyed by the emergence of a context "biopolitical" since it is a major route that uses the capital to survive and expand, while guiding the process of "strategic beautification" held in Ponta Negra, problematized by us. We conclude by assessing the appropriateness of proposing on further analysis to explore the establishment of a "new social ontology in terms of interference touristification ongoing and the constitution of a "new order" local/global, away from that characterize a system's capitalist overcoming, try to give emphasis in the current stage of the radicalization of a capitalistic utopia

Saúde do trabalhador: entre os dispositivos legais e as práticas efetivas

The health worker is seized in this research beyond the mere applicability of legal devices concerning the legislation of Labor, in order to be established correlations with activities alluding to the public power in the ambit of State of Rio Grande do Norte (RN). This dissertation is an cutting of analysis circumscribed in the research, "Accidents at work: law, citizenship and justice," of the Grupo de Estudos Seguridade Social e Trabalho (GESTO) of Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte (UFRN). The overall goal turned to apprehend and relate contradictory elements inherent compliance of Occupational Health and Safety (OHS) in the supermarket which showed the highest occurrence of legal violations recognized by the Labor Justice of RN in the period between 2006 and 2008 . The specific objectives turned to identify, from the condemnatory sentences, violations inherent in the protective direction of the OH & S legislation; analyze the relationship of health damages to workers at the supposed recognition of rights claimed in condemnatory sentences and correlate violations inherent in the legislation OSH impacts on the health of workers, from data contained in expert reports. The justification for perform the research backed up, among other factors, in the fact that class of activity has been presented as the most recurrent in condemnatory sentences, since it chose to focus the analysis on documentary evidence from the supermarket which showed greater expression in relation to violations of the OSH legislation. From a qualitative perspective, the methodological approach was based on content analysis of thirteen condemnatory sentences, handed down by the potiguar labor justice, and three expert reports from a large supermarket in the city of Natal/RN. Aftermaths are evidenced relating to the cyclical processes of reorganization of capital, demanding requirements for labor organizations whose strategies for survival include identifying mechanisms to extract as much of the work force. Structural determination and ideological context that puts into question the historical achievements of workers, for example the legal devices aimed at preventing workplace accidents, expressed in this research as relativized, showing limitations of reach, as was inferred the indemnities, by material and moral damages, arising from Work-Related Musculoskeletal Diseases (MSDs'S), recognized by the laborite judiciary