Train scheduling and rolling stock assignment in high speed trains

The Train Timetabling Problem (TTP) has been widely studied for freight and passenger rail systems. A lesser effort has been devoted to the study of high-speed rail systems. A modeling issue that has to be addressed is to model departure time choice of passengers on railway services. Passengers who use these systems attempt to travel at predetermined hours due to their daily life necessities (e.g., commuter trips). We incorporate all these features into TTP focusing on high-speed railway systems. We propose a Rail Scheduling and Rolling Stock (RSch-RS) model for timetable planning of high-speed railway systems. This model is composed of two essential elements: i) an infrastructure model for representing the railway network: it includes capacity constraints of the rail network and the Rolling-Stock constraints; and ii) a demand model that defines how the passengers choose the departure time. The resulting model is a mixed-integer programming model which objective function attempts to maximize the profit for the rail operator

Endemic zoonoses: a one health approach

Endemic zoonotic diseases remain a serious but poorly recognised problem in affected communities in developing countries. Despite the overall burden of zoonoses on human and animal health, information about their impacts in endemic settings is lacking and most of these diseases are continuously being neglected. The non-specific clinical presentation of these diseases has been identified as a major challenge in their identification (even with good laboratory diagnosis), and control. The signs and symptoms in animals and humans respectively, are easily confused with other non-zoonotic diseases, leading to widespread misdiagnosis in areas where diagnostic capacity is limited. The communities that are mostly affected by these diseases live in close proximity with their animals which they depend on for livelihood, which further complicates the understanding of the epidemiology of zoonoses. This thesis reviewed the pattern of reporting of zoonotic pathogens that cause febrile illness in malaria endemic countries, and evaluates the recognition of animal associations among other risk factors in the transmission and management of zoonoses. The findings of the review chapter were further investigated through a laboratory study of risk factors for bovine leptospirosis, and exposure patterns of livestock coxiellosis in the subsequent chapters. A review was undertaken on 840 articles that were part of a bigger review of zoonotic pathogens that cause human fever. The review process involves three main steps: filtering and reference classification, identification of abstracts that describe risk factors, and data extraction and summary analysis of data. Abstracts of the 840 references were transferred into a Microsoft excel spread sheet, where several subsets of abstracts were generated using excel filters and text searches to classify the content of each abstract. Data was then extracted and summarised to describe geographical patterns of the pathogens reported, and determine the frequency animal related risk factors were considered among studies that investigated risk factors for zoonotic pathogen transmission. Subsequently, a seroprevalence study of bovine leptospirosis in northern Tanzania was undertaken in the second chapter of this thesis. The study involved screening of serum samples, which were obtained from an abattoir survey and cross-sectional study (Bacterial Zoonoses Project), for antibodies against Leptospira serovar Hardjo. The data were analysed using generalised linear mixed models (GLMMs), to identify risk factors for cattle infection. The final chapter was the analysis of Q fever data, which were also obtained from the Bacterial Zoonoses Project, to determine exposure patterns across livestock species using generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs). Leptospira spp. (10.8%, 90/840) and Rickettsia spp. (10.7%, 86/840) were identified as the most frequently reported zoonotic pathogens that cause febrile illness, while Rabies virus (0.4%, 3/840) and Francisella spp. (0.1%, 1/840) were least reported, across malaria endemic countries. The majority of the pathogens were reported in Asia, and the frequency of reporting seems to be higher in areas where outbreaks are mostly reported. It was also observed that animal related risk factors are not often considered among other risk factors for zoonotic pathogens that cause human fever in malaria endemic countries. The seroprevalence study indicated that Leptospira serovar Hardjo is widespread in cattle population in northern Tanzania, and animal husbandry systems and age are the two most important risk factors that influence seroprevalence. Cattle in the pastoral systems and adult cattle were significantly more likely to be seropositive compared to non-pastoral and young animals respectively, while there was no significant effect of cattle breed or sex. Exposure patterns of Coxiella burnetii appear different for each livestock species. While most risk factors were identified for goats (such as animal husbandry systems, age and sex) and sheep (animal husbandry systems and sex), there were none for cattle. In addition, there was no evidence of a significant influence of mixed livestock-keeping on animal coxiellosis. Zoonotic agents that cause human fever are common in developing countries. The role of animals in the transmission of zoonotic pathogens that cause febrile illness is not fully recognised and appreciated. Since Leptospira spp. and C. burnetii are among the most frequently reported pathogens that cause human fever across malaria endemic countries, and are also prevalent in livestock population, control and preventive measures that recognise animals as source of infection would be very important especially in livestock-keeping communities where people live in close proximity with their animals.

Short-Term Trading for a Wind-PV Power Producer in an Electricity Market

This paper deals with the problem of coordinated trading of wind and photovoltaic systems in order to find the optimal bid to submit in a pool-based electricity market. The coordination of wind and photovoltaic systems presents uncertainties not only due to electricity market prices, but also with wind and photovoltaic power forecast. Electricity markets are characterized by financial penalties in case of deficit or excess of generation. So, the aim o this work is to reduce these financial penalties and maximize the expected profit of the power producer. The problem is formulated as a stochastic linear programming problem. The proposed approach is validated with real data of pool-based electricity market of Iberian Peninsula.

Bidding and Optimization Strategies for Wind-PV Systems in Electricity Markets

The variability in non-dispatchable power generation raises important challenges to the integration of renewable energy sources into the electricity power grid. This paper provides the coordinated trading of wind and photovoltaic energy to mitigate risks due to the wind and solar power variability, electricity prices, and financial penalties arising out the generation shortfall and surplus. The problem of wind-photovoltaic coordinated trading is formulated as a linear programming problem. The goal is to obtain the optimal bidding strategy that maximizes the total profit. The wind-photovoltaic coordinated operation is modeled and compared with the uncoordinated operation. A comparison of the models and relevant conclusions are drawn from an illustrative case study of the Iberian day-ahead electricity market.

Bidding and Optimization Strategies for Wind-PV Systems in Electricity Markets Assisted by CPS

The variability in non-dispatchable power generation raises important challenges to the integration of renewable energy sources into the electricity power grid. This paper provides the coordinated trading of wind and photovoltaic energy assisted by a cyber-physical system for supporting management decisions to mitigate risks due to the wind and solar power variability, electricity prices, and financial penalties arising out the generation shortfall and surplus. The problem of wind-photovoltaic coordinated trading is formulated as a stochastic linear programming problem. The goal is to obtain the optimal bidding strategy that maximizes the total profit. The wind-photovoltaic coordinated operation is modelled and compared with the uncoordinated operation. A comparison of the models and relevant conclusions are drawn from an illustrative case study of the Iberian day-ahead electricity market.

Optimal Wind Bidding Strategies in Day-Ahead Markets

This paper presents a computer application for wind energy bidding in a day-ahead electricity market to better accommodate the variability of the energy source. The computer application is based in a stochastic linear mathematical programming problem. The goal is to obtain the optimal bidding strategy in order to maximize the revenue. Electricity prices and financial penalties for shortfall or surplus energy deliver are modeled. Finally, conclusions are drawn from an illustrative case study, using data from the day-ahead electricity market of the Iberian Peninsula.

Mastication Movements And Sleep Quality Of Patients With Myofascial Pain: Occlusal Device Therapy Improvements.

Patients with myofascial pain experience impaired mastication, which might also interfere with their sleep quality. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the jaw motion and sleep quality of patients with myofascial pain and the impact of a stabilization device therapy on both parameters. Fifty women diagnosed with myofascial pain by the Research Diagnostic Criteria were enrolled. Pain levels (visual analog scale), jaw movements (kinesiography), and sleep quality (Epworth Sleepiness Scale; Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index) were evaluated before (control) and after stabilization device use. Range of motion (maximum opening, right and left excursions, and protrusion) and masticatory movements during Optosil mastication (opening, closing, and total cycle time; opening and closing angles; and maximum velocity) also were evaluated. Repeated-measures analysis of variance in a generalized linear mixed models procedure was used for statistical analysis (α=.05). At baseline, participants with myofascial pain showed a reduced range of jaw motion and poorer sleep quality. Treatment with a stabilization device reduced pain (P<.001) and increased both mouth opening (P<.001) and anteroposterior movement (P=.01). Also, after treatment, the maximum opening (P<.001) and closing (P=.04) velocities during mastication increased, and improvements in sleep scores for the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (P<.001) and Epworth Sleepiness Scale (P=.04) were found. Myofascial pain impairs jaw motion and quality of sleep; the reduction of pain after the use of a stabilization device improves the range of motion and sleep parameters.

Analysis Of The Fluorescence Of Body Fluids On Different Surfaces And Times.

The use of screening techniques, such as an alternative light source (ALS), is important for finding biological evidence at a crime scene. The objective of this study was to evaluate whether biological fluid (blood, semen, saliva, and urine) deposited on different surfaces changes as a function of the age of the sample. Stains were illuminated with a Megamaxx™ ALS System and photographed with a Canon EOS Utility™ camera. Adobe Photoshop™ was utilized to prepare photographs for analysis, and then ImageJ™ was used to record the brightness values of pixels in the images. Data were submitted to analysis of variance using a generalized linear mixed model with two fixed effects (surface and fluid). Time was treated as a random effect (through repeated measures) with a first-order autoregressive covariance structure. Means of significant effects were compared by the Tukey test. The fluorescence of the analyzed biological material varied depending on the age of the sample. Fluorescence was lower when the samples were moist. Fluorescence remained constant when the sample was dry, up to the maximum period analyzed (60 days), independent of the substrate on which the fluid was deposited, showing the novelty of this study. Therefore, the forensic expert can detect biological fluids at the crime scene using an ALS even several days after a crime has occurred.

Changes in soil organic carbon storage under different agricultural management systems in the Southwest Amazon Region of Brazil

The Cerrado and Amazon regions of Brazil are probably the largest agricultural frontier of the world, and Could be a sink or source for C depending on the net effect of land use change and subsequent management on soil organic C pools. We evaluated the effects of agricultural management systems on soil organic C (SOC) stocks in the Brazilian states of Rondonia and Mato Grosso, and derived regional specific factors for soil C stock change associated with different management systems. We used 50 observations (data points) in this study, including 42 dealing with annual cropping practices and 8 dealing with perennial cropping, and analyzed the data in linear mixed-effect models. No tillage (NT) systems in Cerrado areas increased SOC Storage by 1.08 +/- 0.06 relative to SOC stocks under native conditions, while SOC storage increased by a modest factor of 1.01 +/- 0.17 in Cerradao and Amazon Forest conditions. Full tillage (FT) had negative effect on SOC storage relative to NT, decreasing SOC stocks by a factor of 0.94 +/- 0.04. but did not significantly reduce SOC stocks relative to native levels when adopted in the Cerrado region. Perennial cropping had a minimal impact on SOC stocks, estimated at a factor Value of 0.98 +/- 0.14, suggesting these systems maintain about 98% of the SOC stock found under native vegetation. The results Suggest that NT adoption may be increasing SOC with land use change from native vegetation to cropland management in the Cerrado region of Brazil. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Assembling a consistent set of sentences in relational probabilistic logic with stochastic independence

We examine the representation of judgements of stochastic independence in probabilistic logics. We focus on a relational logic where (i) judgements of stochastic independence are encoded by directed acyclic graphs, and (ii) probabilistic assessments are flexible in the sense that they are not required to specify a single probability measure. We discuss issues of knowledge representation and inference that arise from our particular combination of graphs, stochastic independence, logical formulas and probabilistic assessments. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic logic with independence

This paper investigates probabilistic logics endowed with independence relations. We review propositional probabilistic languages without and with independence. We then consider graph-theoretic representations for propositional probabilistic logic with independence; complexity is analyzed, algorithms are derived, and examples are discussed. Finally, we examine a restricted first-order probabilistic logic that generalizes relational Bayesian networks. (c) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Sequential decision making with partially ordered preferences

This paper presents new insights and novel algorithms for strategy selection in sequential decision making with partially ordered preferences; that is, where some strategies may be incomparable with respect to expected utility. We assume that incomparability amongst strategies is caused by indeterminacy/imprecision in probability values. We investigate six criteria for consequentialist strategy selection: Gamma-Maximin, Gamma-Maximax, Gamma-Maximix, Interval Dominance, Maximality and E-admissibility. We focus on the popular decision tree and influence diagram representations. Algorithms resort to linear/multilinear programming; we describe implementation and experiments. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effect of metabolic inhibitors on cyclosporine pharmacokinetics using a population approach

Drugs known to inhibit the metabolism of cyclosporine are administered concomitantly to those who undergo cardiothoracic transplantation. The aim of this study was to examine in quantitative terms the relationship between cyclosporine oral dose rate and the trough concentration (Css(trough)) at steady state in patients who undergo cardiothoracic transplantation and are administered cyclosporine alone or in combination with drugs known to inhibit its metabolism. Dose and whole blood cyclosporine Css(tough) observations measured using the enzyme-multiplied immunoassay technique (EMIT) (396 observations) or the TDx assay (435 observations) were collected as part of routine blood concentration monitoring from 182 patients who underwent cardiothoracic transplantation. Data were analyzed using a linear mixed-effects modeling approach to examine the effect of metabolic inhibitors on dose-rate-Css(trough) ratio. The mean (and 95% confidence interval) dose-rate-Css(trough) ratio for cyclosporine generated from concentrations measured using EMIT was 94 (82.5-105.5) Lh(-1) for patients administered cyclosporine alone, 66.7 (58.1-75.3) Lh(-1) for patients administered concomitant diltiazem, 47.9 (15.4 -80.4) Lh(-1) for patients administered concomitant itraconazole, 21.7 (14.8-28.5) Lh(-1) for patients administered concomitant ketoconazole, and 14.9 (11.8-18.1) Lh(-1) for patients concomitantly administered diltiazem and ketoconazole. For patients administered concomitant cyclosporine, ketoconazole, and diltiazem, the dosage of cyclosporine, if it is administered alone, should be 20% to achieve the same blood concentrations. This will allow safer drug concentration targeting of cyclosporine after cardiothoracic transplantation.

Modelling the Distribution of Ischaemic Stroke-Specific Survival Time Using an EM-based Mixture Approach with Random Effects Adjustment

A two-component survival mixture model is proposed to analyse a set of ischaemic stroke-specific mortality data. The survival experience of stroke patients after index stroke may be described by a subpopulation of patients in the acute condition and another subpopulation of patients in the chronic phase. To adjust for the inherent correlation of observations due to random hospital effects, a mixture model of two survival functions with random effects is formulated. Assuming a Weibull hazard in both components, an EM algorithm is developed for the estimation of fixed effect parameters and variance components. A simulation study is conducted to assess the performance of the two-component survival mixture model estimators. Simulation results confirm the applicability of the proposed model in a small sample setting. Copyright (C) 2004 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

The association between air pollution and blood pressure in traffic controllers in Santo Andre, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Background: Urban air pollutants are associated with cardiovascular events. Traffic controllers are at high risk for pollution exposure during outdoor work shifts. Objective: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the relationship between air pollution and systemic blood pressure in traffic controllers during their work shifts. Methods: This cross-sectional study enrolled 19 male traffic controllers from Santo Andre city (Sao Paulo, Brazil) who were 30-60 years old and exposed to ambient air during outdoor work shifts. Systolic and diastolic blood pressure readings were measured every 15 min by an Ambulatory Arterial Blood Pressure Monitoring device. Hourly measurements (lags of 0-5 h) and the moving averages (2-5 h) of particulate matter (PM(10)), ozone (O(3)) ambient concentrations and the acquired daily minimum temperature and humidity means from the Sao Paulo State Environmental Agency were correlated with both systolic and diastolic blood pressures. Statistical methods included descriptive analysis and linear mixed effect models adjusted for temperature, humidity, work periods and time of day. Results: Interquartile increases of PM(10) (33 mu g/m(3)) and O(3) (49 mu g/m(3)) levels were associated with increases in all arterial pressure parameters, ranging from 1.06 to 2.53 mmHg. PM(10) concentration was associated with early effects (lag 0), mainly on systolic blood pressure. However, O(3) was weakly associated most consistently with diastolic blood pressure and with late cumulative effects. Conclusions: Santo Andre traffic controllers presented higher blood pressure readings while working their outdoor shifts during periods of exposure to ambient pollutant fluctuations. However, PM(10) and O(3) induced cardiovascular effects demonstrated different time courses and end-point behaviors and probably acted through different mechanisms. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.