801 resultados para Unit root analysis
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In view of the current environmental concerns and legal requirements, this work aims to achieve a diagnosis and offer subsidies for development of an environmental management plan in an industry. The industry considered to be a subject of study of this research is the aviculture, considered its great importance in Brazil and to present a significant environmental impact. The unit of analysis is a chicken slaughterhouse, located in Rio Claro, SP. The developed methodology for identification and analysis of environmental significative aspects were based in the concepts of environmental impact and in the ABNT NBR ISO 14.001:2004. From the analysis of selected aspects, this research proposed several environmental indicators for the company and identified points of environmental improvement. The results of this study provide methods for identifying its environmental aspects and development of its environmental management plan to chicken slaughterhouse and also to other companies.
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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)
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In recent literature, the concept of policy subsystem has occupied a central place in many theoretical models, it is considered prime unit of analysis in recent approaches to the policy process. Subject of intense theoretical discussion, when compared to related concepts such as policy communities, policy networks and policy issues, these concepts can contribute to the analysis of political participation process, characteristic of democratic governments. This present study aims to present a critical review of the literature on subsystems, policy issues, policy networks and policy communities, as well as discuss these concepts emphasizing the participatory potential of the actors who make up these spaces, seeking to contribute to the dialogue of studies in public policy and participation policy in Brazil.
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Water erosion is one of the main processes responsible for soil degradation, resulting in loss of parcels of land suitable for agriculture, to the loss of agricultural inputs and the resulting drift of pesticides and excess sediment to rivers, causing phenomena such as the siltation and eutrophication of water bodies. Such a scenario makes it necessary to perform work of a technical and scientific to provide subsidies to land-use planning, in order to protect natural resources biotic and abiotic. To develop this work is necessary to find a unit of analysis capable of integrating the different elements of the landscape, hydrosphere, atmosphere, biosphere and lithosphere. Therefore we adopt for this work the watershed as main unit studies. From this question, this project will focus on the assessment of surface water erosion through MEUPS (Equation Modified Universal Soil Loss) predictive model. With the aid of maps, remote sensing products, and the use of geotechnology, this study aims to evaluate for the for Natural Erosion Potential the basin of the Jacutinga river, located in Rio Claro - SP
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The scope of this paper was to analyze the association between homicides and public security indicators in Sao Paulo between 1996 and 2008, after monitoring the unemployment rate and the proportion of youths in the population. A time-series ecological study for 1996 and 2008 was conducted with Sao Paulo as the unit of analysis. Dependent variable: number of deaths by homicide per year. Main independent variables: arrest-incarceration rate, access to firearms, police activity. Data analysis was conducted using Stata. IC 10.0 software. Simple and multivariate negative binomial regression models were created. Deaths by homicide and arrest-incarceration, as well as police activity were significantly associated in simple regression analysis. Access to firearms was not significantly associated to the reduction in the number of deaths by homicide (p>0,05). After adjustment, the associations with both the public security indicators were not significant. In Sao Paulo the role of public security indicators are less important as explanatory factors for a reduction in homicide rates, after adjustment for unemployment rate and a reduction in the proportion of youths. The results reinforce the importance of socioeconomic and demographic factors for a change in the public security scenario in Sao Paulo.
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Objective: This ex vivo study evaluated the effect of pre-flaring and file size on the accuracy of the Root ZX and Novapex electronic apex locators (EALs). Material and methods: The actual working length (WL) was set 1 mm short of the apical foramen in the palatal root canals of 24 extracted maxillary molars. The teeth were embedded in an alginate mold, and two examiners performed the electronic measurements using #10, #15, and #20 K-files. The files were inserted into the root canals until the "0.0" or "APEX" signals were observed on the LED or display screens for the Novapex and Root ZX, respectively, retracting to the 1.0 mark. The measurements were repeated after the pre-flaring using the S1 and SX Pro-Taper instruments. Two measurements were performed for each condition and the means were used. Intra-class correlation coefficients (ICCs) were calculated to verify the intra-and inter-examiner agreement. The mean differences between the WL and electronic length values were analyzed by the three-way ANOVA test (p<0.05). Results: ICCs were high (>0.8) and the results demonstrated a similar accuracy for both EALs (p>0.05). Statistically significant accurate measurements were verified in the pre-flared canals, except for the Novapex using a #20 K-file. Conclusions: The tested EALs showed acceptable accuracy, whereas the pre-flaring procedure revealed a more significant effect than the used file size.
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No Brasil, a mortalidade por homicídios persiste como importante problema de saúde pública, principalmente entre homens adultos jovens. O objetivo do presente estudo foi analisar o risco de morte por homicídios entre homens de 20-39 anos de idade e sua associação com características sociodemográficas dos municípios brasileiros. Foi realizado estudo ecológico, tendo como unidades de análise todos os municípios do País. Foram estudadas as tendências temporais entre 1999-2010 e as associações do desfecho com indicadores dos municípios em análise transversal referente ao quatriênio 2007-2010. Entre os quatriênios 1999-2002 e 2007-2010, houve aumento das taxas medianas de mortalidade por homicídios entre homens de 20-39 anos, de 22,7 para 35,5 por 100 mil habitantes. No quatriênio 2007-2010, os riscos de homicídios foram estatisticamente superiores (p<0,001) nos municípios de maior porte populacional, maior taxa de fecundidade, baixa proporção de alfabetizados, maior desigualdade aferida pela renda 20/40 e maior urbanização. Para a proporção da população de baixa renda e renda média per capita, as associações indicam excessos nas estimativas de risco de homicídios nos municípios com valores intermediários desses indicadores. Os achados podem auxiliar na focalização de políticas públicas.
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There have been almost fifty years since Harry Eckstein' s classic monograph, A Theory of Stable Democracy (Princeton, 1961), where he sketched out the basic tenets of the “congruence theory”, which was to become one of the most important and innovative contributions to understanding democratic rule. His next work, Division and Cohesion in Democracy, (Princeton University Press: 1966) is designed to serve as a plausibility probe for this 'theory' (ftn.) and is a case study of a Northern democratic system, Norway. What is more, this line of his work best exemplifies the contribution Eckstein brought to the methodology of comparative politics through his seminal article, “ “Case Study and Theory in Political Science” ” (in Greenstein and Polsby, eds., Handbook of Political Science, 1975), on the importance of the case study as an approach to empirical theory. This article demonstrates the special utility of “crucial case studies” in testing theory, thereby undermining the accepted wisdom in comparative research that the larger the number of cases the better. Although not along the same lines, but shifting the case study unit of research, I intend to take up here the challenge and build upon an equally unique political system, the Swedish one. Bearing in mind the peculiarities of the Swedish political system, my unit of analysis is going to be further restricted to the Swedish Social Democratic Party, the Svenska Arbetare Partiet. However, my research stays within the methodological framework of the case study theory inasmuch as it focuses on a single political system and party. The Swedish SAP endurance in government office and its electoral success throughout half a century (ftn. As of the 1991 election, there were about 56 years - more than half century - of interrupted social democratic "reign" in Sweden.) are undeniably a performance no other Social Democrat party has yet achieved in democratic conditions. Therefore, it is legitimate to inquire about the exceptionality of this unique political power combination. Which were the different components of this dominance power position, which made possible for SAP's governmental office stamina? I will argue here that it was the end-product of a combination of multifarious factors such as a key position in the party system, strong party leadership and organization, a carefully designed strategy regarding class politics and welfare policy. My research is divided into three main parts, the historical incursion, the 'welfare' part and the 'environment' part. The first part is a historical account of the main political events and issues, which are relevant for my case study. Chapter 2 is devoted to the historical events unfolding in the 1920-1960 period: the Saltsjoebaden Agreement, the series of workers' strikes in the 1920s and SAP's inception. It exposes SAP's ascent to power in the mid 1930s and the party's ensuing strategies for winning and keeping political office, that is its economic program and key economic goals. The following chapter - chapter 3 - explores the next period, i.e. the period from 1960s to 1990s and covers the party's troubled political times, its peak and the beginnings of the decline. The 1960s are relevant for SAP's planning of a long term economic strategy - the Rehn Meidner model, a new way of macroeconomic steering, based on the Keynesian model, but adapted to the new economic realities of welfare capitalist societies. The second and third parts of this study develop several hypotheses related to SAP's 'dominant position' (endurance in politics and in office) and test them afterwards. Mainly, the twin issues of economics and environment are raised and their political relevance for the party analyzed. On one hand, globalization and its spillover effects over the Swedish welfare system are important causal factors in explaining the transformative social-economic challenges the party had to put up with. On the other hand, Europeanization and environmental change influenced to a great deal SAP's foreign policy choices and its domestic electoral strategies. The implications of globalization on the Swedish welfare system will make the subject of two chapters - chapters four and five, respectively, whereupon the Europeanization consequences will be treated at length in the third part of this work - chapters six and seven, respectively. Apparently, at first sight, the link between foreign policy and electoral strategy is difficult to prove and uncanny, in the least. However, in the SAP's case there is a bulk of literature and public opinion statistical data able to show that governmental domestic policy and party politics are in a tight dependence to foreign policy decisions and sovereignty issues. Again, these country characteristics and peculiar causal relationships are outlined in the first chapters and explained in the second and third parts. The sixth chapter explores the presupposed relationship between Europeanization and environmental policy, on one hand, and SAP's environmental policy formulation and simultaneous agenda-setting at the international level, on the other hand. This chapter describes Swedish leadership in environmental policy formulation on two simultaneous fronts and across two different time spans. The last chapter, chapter eight - while trying to develop a conclusion, explores the alternative theories plausible in explaining the outlined hypotheses and points out the reasons why these theories do not fit as valid alternative explanation to my systemic corporatism thesis as the main causal factor determining SAP's 'dominant position'. Among the alternative theories, I would consider Traedgaardh L. and Bo Rothstein's historical exceptionalism thesis and the public opinion thesis, which alone are not able to explain the half century social democratic endurance in government in the Swedish case.
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Life is full of uncertainties. Legal rules should have a clear intention, motivation and purpose in order to diminish daily uncertainties. However, practice shows that their consequences are complex and hard to predict. For instance, tort law has the general objectives of deterring future negligent behavior and compensating the victims of someone else's negligence. Achieving these goals are particularly difficult in medical malpractice cases. To start with, when patients search for medical care they are typically sick in the first place. In case harm materializes during the treatment, it might be very hard to assess if it was due to substandard medical care or to the patient's poor health conditions. Moreover, the practice of medicine has a positive externality on the society, meaning that the design of legal rules is crucial: for instance, it should not result in physicians avoiding practicing their activity just because they are afraid of being sued even when they acted according to the standard level of care. The empirical literature on medical malpractice has been developing substantially in the past two decades, with the American case being the most studied one. Evidence from civil law tradition countries is more difficult to find. The aim of this thesis is to contribute to the empirical literature on medical malpractice, using two civil law countries as a case-study: Spain and Italy. The goal of this thesis is to investigate, in the first place, some of the consequences of having two separate sub-systems (administrative and civil) coexisting within the same legal system, which is common in civil law tradition countries with a public national health system (such as Spain, France and Portugal). When this holds, different procedures might apply depending on the type of hospital where the injury took place (essentially whether it is a public hospital or a private hospital). Therefore, a patient injured in a public hospital should file a claim in administrative courts while a patient suffering an identical medical accident should file a claim in civil courts. A natural question that the reader might pose is why should both administrative and civil courts decide medical malpractice cases? Moreover, can this specialization of courts influence how judges decide medical malpractice cases? In the past few years, there was a general concern with patient safety, which is currently on the agenda of several national governments. Some initiatives have been taken at the international level, with the aim of preventing harm to patients during treatment and care. A negligently injured patient might present a claim against the health care provider with the aim of being compensated for the economic loss and for pain and suffering. In several European countries, health care is mainly provided by a public national health system, which means that if a patient harmed in a public hospital succeeds in a claim against the hospital, public expenditures increase because the State takes part in the litigation process. This poses a problem in a context of increasing national health expenditures and public debt. In Italy, with the aim of increasing patient safety, some regions implemented a monitoring system on medical malpractice claims. However, if properly implemented, this reform shall also allow for a reduction in medical malpractice insurance costs. This thesis is organized as follows. Chapter 1 provides a review of the empirical literature on medical malpractice, where studies on outcomes and merit of claims, costs and defensive medicine are presented. Chapter 2 presents an empirical analysis of medical malpractice claims arriving to the Spanish Supreme Court. The focus is on reversal rates for civil and administrative decisions. Administrative decisions appealed by the plaintiff have the highest reversal rates. The results show a bias in lower administrative courts, which tend to focus on the State side. We provide a detailed explanation for these results, which can rely on the organization of administrative judges career. Chapter 3 assesses predictors of compensation in medical malpractice cases appealed to the Spanish Supreme Court and investigates the amount of damages attributed to patients. The results show horizontal equity between administrative and civil decisions (controlling for observable case characteristics) and vertical inequity (patients suffering more severe injuries tend to receive higher payouts). In order to execute these analyses, a database of medical malpractice decisions appealed to the Administrative and Civil Chambers of the Spanish Supreme Court from 2006 until 2009 (designated by the Spanish Supreme Court Medical Malpractice Dataset (SSCMMD)) has been created. A description of how the SSCMMD was built and of the Spanish legal system is presented as well. Chapter 4 includes an empirical investigation of the effect of a monitoring system for medical malpractice claims on insurance premiums. In Italy, some regions adopted this policy in different years, while others did not. The study uses data on insurance premiums from Italian public hospitals for the years 2001-2008. This is a significant difference as most of the studies use the insurance company as unit of analysis. Although insurance premiums have risen from 2001 to 2008, the increase was lower for regions adopting a monitoring system for medical claims. Possible implications of this system are also provided. Finally, Chapter 5 discusses the main findings, describes possible future research and concludes.
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Sei $\pi:X\rightarrow S$ eine \"uber $\Z$ definierte Familie von Calabi-Yau Varietaten der Dimension drei. Es existiere ein unter dem Gauss-Manin Zusammenhang invarianter Untermodul $M\subset H^3_{DR}(X/S)$ von Rang vier, sodass der Picard-Fuchs Operator $P$ auf $M$ ein sogenannter {\em Calabi-Yau } Operator von Ordnung vier ist. Sei $k$ ein endlicher K\"orper der Charaktetristik $p$, und sei $\pi_0:X_0\rightarrow S_0$ die Reduktion von $\pi$ \uber $k$. F\ur die gew\ohnlichen (ordinary) Fasern $X_{t_0}$ der Familie leiten wir eine explizite Formel zur Berechnung des charakteristischen Polynoms des Frobeniusendomorphismus, des {\em Frobeniuspolynoms}, auf dem korrespondierenden Untermodul $M_{cris}\subset H^3_{cris}(X_{t_0})$ her. Sei nun $f_0(z)$ die Potenzreihenl\osung der Differentialgleichung $Pf=0$ in einer Umgebung der Null. Da eine reziproke Nullstelle des Frobeniuspolynoms in einem Teichm\uller-Punkt $t$ durch $f_0(z)/f_0(z^p)|_{z=t}$ gegeben ist, ist ein entscheidender Schritt in der Berechnung des Frobeniuspolynoms die Konstruktion einer $p-$adischen analytischen Fortsetzung des Quotienten $f_0(z)/f_0(z^p)$ auf den Rand des $p-$adischen Einheitskreises. Kann man die Koeffizienten von $f_0$ mithilfe der konstanten Terme in den Potenzen eines Laurent-Polynoms, dessen Newton-Polyeder den Ursprung als einzigen inneren Gitterpunkt enth\alt, ausdr\ucken,so beweisen wir gewisse Kongruenz-Eigenschaften unter den Koeffizienten von $f_0$. Diese sind entscheidend bei der Konstruktion der analytischen Fortsetzung. Enth\alt die Faser $X_{t_0}$ einen gew\ohnlichen Doppelpunkt, so erwarten wir im Grenz\ubergang, dass das Frobeniuspolynom in zwei Faktoren von Grad eins und einen Faktor von Grad zwei zerf\allt. Der Faktor von Grad zwei ist dabei durch einen Koeffizienten $a_p$ eindeutig bestimmt. Durchl\auft nun $p$ die Menge aller Primzahlen, so erwarten wir aufgrund des Modularit\atssatzes, dass es eine Modulform von Gewicht vier gibt, deren Koeffizienten durch die Koeffizienten $a_p$ gegeben sind. Diese Erwartung hat sich durch unsere umfangreichen Rechnungen best\atigt. Dar\uberhinaus leiten wir weitere Formeln zur Bestimmung des Frobeniuspolynoms her, in welchen auch die nicht-holomorphen L\osungen der Gleichung $Pf=0$ in einer Umgebung der Null eine Rolle spielen.
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Questa tesi è incentrata sull'analisi dell'arbitraggio statistico, strategia di trading che cerca di trarre profitto dalle fluttuazioni statistiche di prezzo di uno o più asset sulla base del loro valore atteso. In generale, si creano opportunità di arbitraggio statistico quando si riescono ad individuare delle componenti sistematiche nelle dinamiche dei prezzi di alcuni asset che si muovono con regolarità persistenti e prevalenti. Perturbazioni casuali della domanda e dell’offerta nei mercati possono causare divergenze nei prezzi, dando luogo a opportunità di intermarket spread, ossia simultanei acquisto e vendita di commodities correlate tra loro. Vengono approfonditi vari test econometrici, i test unit root utilizzati per verificare se una serie storica possa essere modellizzata con un processo random walk. Infine viene costruita una strategia di trading basata sull'arbitraggio statistico e applicata numericamente alle serie storiche dal 2010 al 2014 di due titoli azionari sul petrolio: Brent e WTI.
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Il capitale sociale e la qualità istituzionale sono due fenomeni che, da circa venti anni, hanno assunto il ruolo di protagonisti all’interno delle scienze sociali. Anche se per molto tempo sono stati analizzati separatamente, già dalla loro definizione è possibile intuire come essi rappresentino due facce della stessa medaglia. Questo lavoro ha l’obiettivo di comprendere quale è le relazione che lega il capitale sociale e la qualità istituzionale all’interno delle regioni dell’Unione Europea. Nonostante buona parte della letteratura si sia maggiormente dedicata all’analisi dei due fenomeni a livello nazionale, in questo elaborato si ritiene che la dimensione territoriale regionale sia l’unità di misura più idonea per analizzarli entrambi. La prima parte del lavoro analizza il capitale sociale sia da un punto di vista definitorio che da un punto di vista più prettamente empirico, suddividendolo in diversi elementi. Il capitale sociale è un fenomeno estremamente multidimensionale, analizzarne solo una parte condurrebbe ad un’analisi parziale ed approssimativa. All’interno del testo vengono individuate cinque dimensioni, utilizzate successivamente per la creazione di un nuovo indice di capitale sociale regionale. Nella seconda parte si affronta il tema delle istituzioni e della qualità istituzionale. Dopo aver definito le istituzioni, si provvede ad effettuare una rassegna degli indici più comunemente utilizzati per misurarne la qualità, selezionando l’European Quality of Government Index del Quality of Government Institute di Göteborg come il più appropriato, sia per la sua definizione di governance che per l’unità di analisi prescelta. Nella terza parte, infine, in seguito ad un’analisi di quella parte di letteratura che ritiene i due fenomeni indissolubilmente legati ed utilizzando l’indice di capitale sociale regionale sviluppato nel primo capitolo, si propone una risposta, sicuramente parziale e non definitiva, alla domanda che da vent’anni anima questo interessante filone di ricerca: che relazione sussiste tra qualità istituzionale e capitale sociale?
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The central thesis of this article is that a single life event has the capacity to affect and change not one but several lives. This thesis is related to theory on attachment, roles, and convoys. The concept of life-event webs is introduced to capture the complex relations between individuals within networks such as families. Research challenges presented by the life-event web perspective include defining networks, assessing the impact of events on each member, and treating the web, not the individual, as the unit of analysis. The web perspective implies that intervention programs should be focused not on the individual but on the web.
Child Aggression in a Post-Communist Country: Race and Gender Aspects in a Cross-Cultural Comparison
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Gypsies represent approximately 2.5% of the Czech population, but are considerably over-represented among the unemployed, prisoners, schooldropouts, neglected children, etc. Together with racist attitudes on the part of the majority, this causes strong inter-ethnic tension and obviouseconomic, moral and political problems. This research studied the way in which this situation is reflected in peer relations between Gypsy andmajority children in schools. Six samples of children (totalling 2974 children aged 7-15, of whom 15% were Gypsies) were studied through peernomination, teacher assessment and self-reporting. Gypsy/non-Gypsy and gender dichotomies were correlated with measures of aggression,victimisation and acceptance/rejection. The results showed that Gypsy children, both boys and girls, were more likely to nominate their Gypsy peers as aggressors than they nominatemajority children, implying that they tend to direct their rejection toward their own kind. The number of Gypsy children in a class was also animportant factor with Gypsies being more likely to be accepted and less likely to appear aggressive when they were only one or two in a class, thanin a class where there was a greater number of Gypsy pupils. When whole classes were taken as the unit of analysis, Gypsy children were seen asmore likely to behave aggressively in class by their Gypsy and non-Gypsy counterparts as well as by their teachers. At the same time they aremuch less likely to become victims of aggression than are non-Gypsy children, both boys and girls. Mr. Rican also found that the acceptance/rejection patterns of Gypsy children betray their unsatisfactory socialisation. Among their peers, Gypsyor non-Gypsy, they tend to prefer aggressors or children who teachers describe as showing little discipline or effort to succeed at school. Partialcorrelation to assess the influence of seniority on aggressiveness provided a warning that the recent lengthening of compulsory school attendance islikely to bring an increase in aggressiveness. He believes that Gypsy ethnic identity has lost many of its important positive aspects, making itsnegative aspects more prominent and more dangerous. He does however find some possible ways for teachers to reinforce the positive aspects ofGypsy children's identities in order to support their socialisation at schools.
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Advances in information technology and global data availability have opened the door for assessments of sustainable development at a truly macro scale. It is now fairly easy to conduct a study of sustainability using the entire planet as the unit of analysis; this is precisely what this work set out to accomplish. The study began by examining some of the best known composite indicator frameworks developed to measure sustainability at the country level today. Most of these were found to value human development factors and a clean local environment, but to gravely overlook consumption of (remote) resources in relation to nature’s capacity to renew them, a basic requirement for a sustainable state. Thus, a new measuring standard is proposed, based on the Global Sustainability Quadrant approach. In a two‐dimensional plot of nations’ Human Development Index (HDI) vs. their Ecological Footprint (EF) per capita, the Sustainability Quadrant is defined by the area where both dimensions satisfy the minimum conditions of sustainable development: an HDI score above 0.8 (considered ‘high’ human development), and an EF below the fair Earth‐share of 2.063 global hectares per person. After developing methods to identify those countries that are closest to the Quadrant in the present‐day and, most importantly, those that are moving towards it over time, the study tackled the question: what indicators of performance set these countries apart? To answer this, an analysis of raw data, covering a wide array of environmental, social, economic, and governance performance metrics, was undertaken. The analysis used country rank lists for each individual metric and compared them, using the Pearson Product Moment Correlation function, to the rank lists generated by the proximity/movement relative to the Quadrant measuring methods. The analysis yielded a list of metrics which are, with a high degree of statistical significance, associated with proximity to – and movement towards – the Quadrant; most notably: Favorable for sustainable development: use of contraception, high life expectancy, high literacy rate, and urbanization. Unfavorable for sustainable development: high GDP per capita, high language diversity, high energy consumption, and high meat consumption. A momentary gain, but a burden in the long‐run: high carbon footprint and debt. These results could serve as a solid stepping stone for the development of more reliable composite index frameworks for assessing countries’ sustainability.