Multi-Agent Simulation of Urban Social Dynamics for Spatial Load Forecasting

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

A Cellular Automaton Approach to Spatial Electric Load Forecasting

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Model for determining flow diameter and economic velocity in water elevating systems

The purpose of this paper was to develop a model for calculating the economical flow diameter and velocity, by obtaining the economical diameter, using Swamee's friction factor equation, by minimizing the total annual cost. The application of the model to a regular supply condition showed that the diameter of the actual condition, 250 mm, compared with the diameter calculated by the mode, at the same tariff as that applied to the property ( ground), 284.1 mm, involved the necessity to generate, transmit, and distribute extra electrical energy, due to the higher load loss caused by the original diameter, approximately 30800 kWh/year. This means that in one year, the consumer would spend R$2,804.00 more on pumping cost alone.

Single-embryo transfer reduces clinical pregnancy rates and live births in fresh IVF and Intracytoplasmic Sperm Injection (ICSI) cycles: a meta-analysis

Background: It has become an accepted procedure to transfer more than one embryo to the patient to achieve acceptable ongoing pregnancy rates. However, transfers of more than a single embryo increase the probability of establishing a multiple gestation. Single-embryo transfer can minimize twin pregnancies but may also lower live birth rates. This meta-analysis aimed to compare current data on single-embryo versus double-embryo transfer in fresh IVF/ICSI cycles with respect to implantation, ongoing pregnancy and live birth rates.Methods: Search strategies included on-line surveys of databases from 1995 to 2008. Data management and analysis were conducted using the Stats Direct statistical software. The fixed-effect model was used for odds ratio (OR). Fixed-effect effectiveness was evaluated by the Mantel Haenszel method. Seven trials fulfilled the inclusion criteria.Results: When pooling results under the fixed-effect model, the implantation rate was not significantly different between double-embryo transfer (34.5%) and single-embryo transfer group (34.7%) (P = 0.96; OR = 0.99, 95% CI 0.78, 1.25). on the other hand, double-embryo transfer produced a statistically significantly higher ongoing clinical pregnancy rate (44.5%) than single-embryo transfer (28.3%) (P < 0.0001; OR: 2.06, 95% CI = 1.64,2.60). At the same time, pooling results presented a significantly higher live birth rate when double-embryo transfer (42.5%) (P < 0.001; OR: 1.87, 95% CI = 1.44,2.42) was compared with single-embryo transfer (28.4%).Conclusion: Meta-analysis with 95% confidence showed that, despite similar implantation rates, fresh double-embryo transfer had a 1.64 to 2.60 times greater ongoing pregnancy rate and 1.44 to 2.42 times greater live birth rate than single-embryo transfer in a population suitable for ART treatment.

THE EFFECT of E-GLASS FIBERS and ACRYLIC RESIN THICKNESS on FRACTURE LOAD IN A SIMULATED IMPLANT-SUPPORTED OVERDENTURE PROSTHESIS

Statement of problem. Implant overdenture prostheses are prone to acrylic resin fracture because of space limitations around the implant overdenture components.Purpose. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the influence of E-glass fibers and acrylic resin thickness in resisting acrylic resin fracture around a simulated overdenture abutment.Material and methods. A model was developed to simulate the clinical situation of an implant overdenture abutment with varying acrylic resin thickness (1.5 or 3.0 mm) with or without E-glass fiber reinforcement. Forty-eight specimens with an underlying simulated abutment were divided into 4 groups (n=12): 1.5 mm acrylic resin without E-glass fibers identified as thin with no E-glass fiber mesh (TN-N); 1.5 mm acrylic resin with E-glass fibers identified as thin with E-glass fiber mesh (TN-F); 3.0 mm acrylic resin without E-glass fibers identified as thick without E-glass fiber mesh (TK-N); and 3.0 mm acrylic resin with E-glass fibers identified as thick with E-glass fiber mesh (TK-F). All specimens were submitted to a 3-point bending test and fracture loads (N) were analyzed with a 2-way ANOVA and Tukey's post hoc test (alpha=.05).Results. The results revealed significant differences in fracture load among the 4 groups, with significant effects from both thickness (P<.001) and inclusion of the mesh (P<.001). Results demonstrated no interaction between mesh and thickness (P=.690). The TN-N: 39 +/- 5 N; TN-F: 50 +/- 6.9 N; TK-N: 162 +/- 13 N; and TK-F: 193 +/- 21 N groups were all statistically different (P<.001).Conclusions. The fracture load of a processed, acrylic resin implant-supported overdenture can be significantly increased by the addition of E-glass fibers even when using thin acrylic resin sections. on a relative basis, the increase in fracture load was similar when adding E-glass fibers or increasing acrylic resin thickness. (J Prosthet Dent 2011;106:373-377)

A simple graphical model of small mammal succession after fire in the Brazilian cerrado

We studied the succession of small mammal species after fire in the cerrado (Neotropical savanna) of Central Brazil. Populations of small mammals were sampled with live-trapping techniques in a series of nine sites of different successional age, ranging from 1 to 26 years after fire. Ten species of small mammals were captured through all the seral stages of succession. Species richness ranged from two to seven species by seral stage. The species were arranged in different groups with respect to abundance along the succession: the first was composed of early successional species that peaked <2 years after fire (Calomys callosus, C. tener, Thalpomys cerradensis, Mus musculus, Thylamys velutinus); the second occurred or peaked 2-3 years after fire (Necromys lasiurus, Gracilinanus sp., Oryzomys scoth). Gracilinanus agilis peaked in the last seral stage. Species richness of small mammals showed an abrupt decrease from an average of four species immediately after fire to two species 5-26 years after the last fire. We propose a simple graphical model to explain the pattern of species richness of small mammals after fire in the cerrado. This model assumes that the occurrence of species of small mammals is determined by habitat selection behavior by each species along a habitat gradient. The habitat gradient is defined as the ratio of cover of herbaceous to woody vegetation. The replacement of species results from a trade-off in habitat requirements for the two habitat variables.

Influences of the load centre of gravity on heavy vehicle acceleration

The aim of this paper is to analyse the influence of the load centre of gravity on heavy vehicle acceleration. This analysis is done through a method in which a vehicle centre of gravity map is used. A model for the driving force is presented for bus, truck and tractor-semi trailer combinations. The proposed model takes into consideration the resistance forces (drag, rolling resistance, translation and rotation acceleration, climbing resistance) and the 4 X 2 traction system. The positions of the vehicle centre of gravity as a function of the position of the load centre of gravity are determined. The vehicle acceleration is calculated based on the position of the load centre of gravity. This study analyses the acceleration of one of the Mercedes-Benz do Brasil tractor-semitrailer vehicle. A comparison of the acceleration for different maximum adhesion coefficients and ramps are presented, showing new results. An example showing the variations of the load centre of gravity position with the acceleration time and distance is provided. The load centre of gravity position is important for vehicle safety and the efficiency and economy in the transportation of the load.

On an Optimal Linear Control Applied to a Non-Ideal Load Transportation System, Modeled with Periodic Coefficients

In this paper, a load transportation system in platforms or suspended by cables is considered. It is a monorail device and is modelled as an inverted pendulum built on a car driven by a DC motor. The governing equations of motion were derived via Lagrange's equations. In the mathematical model we consider the interaction between the DC motor and the dynamical system, that is, we have a so-called non-ideal periodic problem. The problem is analysed and we also developed an optimal linear control design to stabilize the problem.

Nonlinear Dynamics and Control of an Ideal/Nonideal Load Transportation System With Periodic Coefficients

In this paper, a loads transportation system in platforms or suspended by cables is considered. It is a monorail device and is modeled as an inverted pendulum built on a car driven by a dc motor the governing equations of motion were derived via Lagrange's equations. In the mathematical model we consider the interaction between the dc motor and the dynamical system, that is, we have a so called nonideal periodic problem. The problem is analyzed, qualitatively, through the comparison of the stability diagrams, numerically obtained, for several motor torque constants. Furthermore, we also analyze the problem quantitatively using the Floquet multipliers technique. Finally, we devise a control for the studied nonideal problem. The method that was used for analysis and control of this nonideal periodic system is based on the Chebyshev polynomial exponsion, the Picard iterative method, and the Lyapunov-Floquet transformation (L-F transformation). We call it Sinha's theory.

The STATFLUX code: a statistical method for calculation of flow and set of parameters, based on the Multiple-Compartment Biokinetical Model

The code STATFLUX, implementing a new and simple statistical procedure for the calculation of transfer coefficients in radionuclide transport to animals and plants, is proposed. The method is based on the general multiple-compartment model, which uses a system of linear equations involving geometrical volume considerations. Flow parameters were estimated by employing two different least-squares procedures: Derivative and Gauss-Marquardt methods, with the available experimental data of radionuclide concentrations as the input functions of time. The solution of the inverse problem, which relates a given set of flow parameter with the time evolution of concentration functions, is achieved via a Monte Carlo Simulation procedure.Program summaryTitle of program: STATFLUXCatalogue identifier: ADYS_v1_0Program summary URL: http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/summaries/ADYS_v1_0Program obtainable from: CPC Program Library, Queen's University of Belfast, N. IrelandLicensing provisions: noneComputer for which the program is designed and others on which it has been tested: Micro-computer with Intel Pentium III, 3.0 GHzInstallation: Laboratory of Linear Accelerator, Department of Experimental Physics, University of São Paulo, BrazilOperating system: Windows 2000 and Windows XPProgramming language used: Fortran-77 as implemented in Microsoft Fortran 4.0. NOTE: Microsoft Fortran includes non-standard features which are used in this program. Standard Fortran compilers such as, g77, f77, ifort and NAG95, are not able to compile the code and therefore it has not been possible for the CPC Program Library to test the program.Memory, required to execute with typical data: 8 Mbytes of RAM memory and 100 MB of Hard disk memoryNo. of bits in a word: 16No. of lines in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 6912No. of bytes in distributed Program, including test data, etc.: 229 541Distribution format: tar.gzNature of the physical problem: the investigation of transport mechanisms for radioactive substances, through environmental pathways, is very important for radiological protection of populations. One such pathway, associated with the food chain, is the grass-animal-man sequence. The distribution of trace elements in humans and laboratory animals has been intensively studied over the past 60 years [R.C. Pendlenton, C.W. Mays, R.D. Lloyd, A.L. Brooks, Differential accumulation of iodine-131 from local fallout in people and milk, Health Phys. 9 (1963) 1253-1262]. In addition, investigations on the incidence of cancer in humans, and a possible causal relationship to radioactive fallout, have been undertaken [E.S. Weiss, M.L. Rallison, W.T. London, W.T. Carlyle Thompson, Thyroid nodularity in southwestern Utah school children exposed to fallout radiation, Amer. J. Public Health 61 (1971) 241-249; M.L. Rallison, B.M. Dobyns, F.R. Keating, J.E. Rall, F.H. Tyler, Thyroid diseases in children, Amer. J. Med. 56 (1974) 457-463; J.L. Lyon, M.R. Klauber, J.W. Gardner, K.S. Udall, Childhood leukemia associated with fallout from nuclear testing, N. Engl. J. Med. 300 (1979) 397-402]. From the pathways of entry of radionuclides in the human (or animal) body, ingestion is the most important because it is closely related to life-long alimentary (or dietary) habits. Those radionuclides which are able to enter the living cells by either metabolic or other processes give rise to localized doses which can be very high. The evaluation of these internally localized doses is of paramount importance for the assessment of radiobiological risks and radiological protection. The time behavior of trace concentration in organs is the principal input for prediction of internal doses after acute or chronic exposure. The General Multiple-Compartment Model (GMCM) is the powerful and more accepted method for biokinetical studies, which allows the calculation of concentration of trace elements in organs as a function of time, when the flow parameters of the model are known. However, few biokinetics data exist in the literature, and the determination of flow and transfer parameters by statistical fitting for each system is an open problem.Restriction on the complexity of the problem: This version of the code works with the constant volume approximation, which is valid for many situations where the biological half-live of a trace is lower than the volume rise time. Another restriction is related to the central flux model. The model considered in the code assumes that exist one central compartment (e.g., blood), that connect the flow with all compartments, and the flow between other compartments is not included.Typical running time: Depends on the choice for calculations. Using the Derivative Method the time is very short (a few minutes) for any number of compartments considered. When the Gauss-Marquardt iterative method is used the calculation time can be approximately 5-6 hours when similar to 15 compartments are considered. (C) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Fracture strength of bovine incisors after intra-radicular treatment with MTA in an experimental immature tooth model

Aim To evaluate, using an experimental immature tooth model, the fracture resistance of bovine incisors submitted to different reinforcement treatments with mineral trioxide aggregate (MTA).Methodology An immature tooth model was created by sectioning the coronal and apical portions of 40 bovine incisors 8 mm above and 12 mm below the cementoenamel junction. The root canals were irrigated with 1.0% sodium hypochlorite. They were enlarged both coronally and apically using number 703 carbide burs (ISO: 500-104-168-007-021) and their internal diameter was standardized to 2.1 mm. The specimens were assigned to four groups (n = 10): GI-control (without filling); GII-apical MTA plug + filling with gutta-percha and endodontic sealer; GIII-filling with MTA; GIV-apical MTA plug + filling with MTA + metallic post (Reforpost I). A polyether impression material was used to simulate the periodontal ligament. The specimens were submitted to a compressive load at a crosshead speed of 0.5 mm min(-1) in a servo-hydraulic universal testing machine (MTS 810) applied at 45 degrees to the long axis of the tooth until failure. Data were submitted to statistical analysis by the Kruskal-Wallis test at 5% significance level.Results GIV presented the highest fracture resistance (32.7N) and differed significantly from the other groups (P < 0.05). No statistically difference was found between GII (16.6N) and GIII (23.4N) (P > 0.05). GIII had a significantly higher fracture resistance than GI (P < 0.05).Conclusions the use of MTA + metallic post as an intra-radicular reinforcement treatment increased the resistance to fracture of weakened bovine teeth in an experimental immature tooth model.

A steady-state model for heat pipes of circular or rectangular cross-sections

The objective of this paper is to present a generalized analytical-numerical model of the internal flow in heat pipes. The model formulation is based on two-dimensional formulation of the energy and momentum equations in the vapour and liquid regions and also in the metallic tube. The numerical solution of the model is obtained by using the descretization scheme LOAD and the SIMPLE numerical code. The flow fields, as well as the pressure fields, for different geometries were obtained and discussed. Copyright © 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd.

Spatial electric load forecasting using a local movement approach

An agent based model for spatial electric load forecasting using a local movement approach for the spatiotemporal allocation of the new loads in the service zone is presented. The density of electrical load for each of the major consumer classes in each sub-zone is used as the current state of the agents. The spatial growth is simulated with a walking agent who starts his path in one of the activity centers of the city and goes to the limits of the city following a radial path depending on the different load levels. A series of update rules are established to simulate the S growth behavior and the complementarity between classes. The results are presented in future load density maps. The tests in a real system from a mid-size city show a high rate of success when compared with other techniques. The most important features of this methodology are the need for few data and the simplicity of the algorithm, allowing for future scalability. © 2009 IEEE.

Swarm control designs applied to a non-ideal load transportation system

In this paper, a load transport system in platforms is considered. It is a transport device and is modelled as an inverted pendulum built on a car driven by a DC motor. The motion equations were obtained by Lagrange's equations. The mathematical model considers the interaction between the DC motor and the dynamic system. The dynamic system was analysed and a Swarm Control Design was developed to stabilize the model of this load transport system. ©2010 IEEE.

Optimal switch allocation for automatic load transfer in distribution substations

This work proposes a methodology for optimized allocation of switches for automatic load transfer in distribution systems in order to improve the reliability indexes by restoring such systems which present voltage classes of 23 to 35 kV and radial topology. The automatic switches must be allocated on the system in order to transfer load remotely among the sources at the substations. The problem of switch allocation is formulated as nonlinear constrained mixed integer programming model subject to a set of economical and physical constraints. A dedicated Tabu Search (TS) algorithm is proposed to solve this model. The proposed methodology is tested for a large real-life distribution system. © 2011 IEEE.