Ocean dispersal modelling for propagules of pond apple (Annona glabra L.)

Pond apple invades riparian and coastal environments with water acting as the main vector for dispersal. As seeds float and can reach the ocean, a seed tracking model driven by near surface ocean currents was used to develop maps of potential seed dispersal. Seeds were ‘released’ in the model from sites near the mouths of major North Queensland rivers. Most seeds reach land within three months of release, settling predominately on windward-facing locations. During calm and monsoonal conditions, seeds were generally swept in a southerly direction, however movement turns northward during south easterly trade winds. Seeds released in February from the Johnstone River were capable of being moved anywhere from 100 km north to 150 km south depending on prevailing conditions. Although wind driven currents are the primary mechanism influencing seed dispersal, tidal currents, the East Australian Current, and other factors such as coastline orientation, release location and time also play an important role in determining dispersal patterns. In extreme events such as tropical cyclone Justin in 1997, north east coast rivers could potentially transport seed over 1300 km to the Torres Strait, Papua New Guinea and beyond.

Harvest strategy evaluations and co-management for the Moreton Bay Trawl Fishery

Non-Technical Summary Seafood CRC Project 2009/774. Harvest strategy evaluations and co-management for the Moreton Bay Trawl Fishery Principal Investigator: Dr Tony Courtney, Principal Fisheries Biologist Fisheries and Aquaculture, Agri-Science Queensland Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry Level B1, Ecosciences Precinct, Joe Baker St, Dutton Park, Queensland 4102 Email: tony.courtney@daff.qld.gov.au Project objectives: 1. Review the literature and data (i.e., economic, biological and logbook) relevant to the Moreton Bay trawl fishery. 2. Identify and prioritise management objectives for the Moreton Bay trawl fishery, as identified by the trawl fishers. 3. Undertake an economic analysis of Moreton Bay trawl fishery. 4. Quantify long-term changes to fishing power for the Moreton Bay trawl fishery. 5. Assess priority harvest strategies identified in 2 (above). Present results to, and discuss results with, Moreton Bay Seafood Industry Association (MBSIA), fishers and Fisheries Queensland. Note: Additional, specific objectives for 2 (above) were developed by fishers and the MBSIA after commencement of the project. These are presented in detail in section 5 (below). The project was an initiative of the MBSIA, primarily in response to falling profitability in the Moreton Bay prawn trawl fishery. The analyses were undertaken by a consortium of DAFF, CSIRO and University of Queensland researchers. This report adopted the Australian Standard Fish Names (http://www.fishnames.com.au/). Trends in catch and effort The Moreton Bay otter trawl fishery is a multispecies fishery, with the majority of the catch composed of Greasyback Prawns (Metapenaeus bennettae), Brown Tiger Prawns (Penaeus esculentus), Eastern King Prawns (Melicertus plebejus), squid (Uroteuthis spp., Sepioteuthis spp.), Banana Prawns (Fenneropenaeus merguiensis), Endeavour Prawns (Metapenaeus ensis, Metapenaeus endeavouri) and Moreton Bay bugs (Thenus parindicus). Other commercially important byproduct includes blue swimmer crabs (Portunus armatus), three-spot crabs (Portunus sanguinolentus), cuttlefish (Sepia spp.) and mantis shrimp (Oratosquilla spp.). Logbook catch and effort data show that total annual reported catch of prawns from the Moreton Bay otter trawl fishery has declined to 315 t in 2008 from a maximum of 901 t in 1990. The number of active licensed vessels participating in the fishery has also declined from 207 in 1991 to 57 in 2010. Similarly, fishing effort has fallen from a peak of 13,312 boat-days in 1999 to 3817 boat-days in 2008 – a 71% reduction. The declines in catch and effort are largely attributed to reduced profitability in the fishery due to increased operational costs and depressed prawn prices. The low prawn prices appear to be attributed to Australian aquacultured prawns and imported aquacultured vannamei prawns, displacing the markets for trawl-caught prawns, especially small species such as Greasyback Prawns which traditionally dominated landings in Moreton Bay. In recent years, the relatively high Australian dollar has resulted in reduced exports of Australian wild-caught prawns. This has increased supply on the domestic market which has also suppressed price increases. Since 2002, Brown Tiger Prawns have dominated annual reported landings in the Moreton Bay fishery. While total catch and effort in the bay have declined to historically low levels, the annual catch and catch rates of Brown Tiger Prawns have been at record highs in recent years. This appears to be at least partially attributed to the tiger prawn stock having recovered from excessive effort in previous decades. The total annual value of the Moreton Bay trawl fishery catch, including byproduct, is about $5 million, of which Brown Tiger Prawns account for about $2 million. Eastern King Prawns make up about 10% of the catch and are mainly caught in the bay from October to December as they migrate to offshore waters outside the bay where they contribute to a large mono-specific trawl fishery. Some of the Eastern King Prawns harvested in Moreton Bay may be growth overfished (i.e., caught below the size required to maximise yield or value), although the optimum size-at-capture was not determined in this study. Banana Prawns typically make up about 5% of the catch, but can exceed 20%, particularly following heavy rainfall. Economic analysis of the fishery From the economic survey, cash profits were, on average, positive for both fleet segments in both years of the survey. However, after the opportunity cost of capital and depreciation were taken into account, the residual owner-operator income was relatively low, and substantially lower than the average share of revenue paid to employed skippers. Consequently, owner-operators were earning less than their opportunity cost of their labour, suggesting that the fleets were economically unviable in the longer term. The M2 licensed fleet were, on average, earning similar boat cash profits as the T1/M1 fleet, although after the higher capital costs were accounted for the T1/M1 boats were earning substantially lower returns to owner-operator labour. The mean technical efficiency for the fleet as a whole was estimated to be 0.67. That is, on average, the boats were only catching 67 per cent of what was possible given their level of inputs (hours fished and hull units). Almost one-quarter of observations had efficiency scores above 0.8, suggesting a substantial proportion of the fleet are relatively efficient, but some are also relatively inefficient. Both fleets had similar efficiency distributions, with median technical efficiency score of 0.71 and 0.67 for the M2 and T1/M1 boats respectively. These scores are reasonably consistent with other studies of prawn trawl fleets in Australia, although higher average efficiency scores were found in the NSW prawn trawl fleet. From the inefficiency model, several factors were found to significantly influence vessel efficiency. These included the number of years of experience as skipper, the number of generations that the skipper’s family had been fishing and the number of years schooling. Skippers with more schooling were significantly more efficient than skippers with lower levels of schooling, consistent with other studies. Skippers who had been fishing longer were, in fact, less efficient than newer skippers. However, this was mitigated in the case of skippers whose family had been involved in fishing for several generations, consistent with other studies and suggesting that skill was passed through by families over successive generations. Both the linear and log-linear regression models of total fishing effort against the marginal profit per hour performed reasonably well, explaining between 70 and 84 per cent of the variation in fishing effort. As the models had different dependent variables (one logged and the other not logged) this is not a good basis for model choice. A better comparator is the square root of the mean square error (SMSE) expressed as a percentage of the mean total effort. On this criterion, both models performed very similarly. The linear model suggests that each additional dollar of average profits per hour in the fishery increases total effort by around 26 hours each month. From the log linear model, each percentage increase in profits per hour increases total fishing effort by 0.13 per cent. Both models indicate that economic performance is a key driver of fishing effort in the fishery. The effect of removing the boat-replacement policy is to increase individual vessel profitability, catch and effort, but the overall increase in catch is less than that removed by the boats that must exit the fishery. That is, the smaller fleet (in terms of boat numbers) is more profitable but the overall catch is not expected to be greater than before. This assumes, however, that active boats are removed, and that these were also taking an average level of catch. If inactive boats are removed, then catch of the remaining group as a whole could increase by between 14 and 17 per cent depending on the degree to which costs are reduced with the new boats. This is still substantially lower than historical levels of catch by the fleet. Fishing power analyses An analysis of logbook data from 1988 to 2010, and survey information on fishing gear, was performed to estimate the long-term variation in the fleet’s ability to catch prawns (known as fishing power) and to derive abundance estimates of the three most commercially important prawn species (i.e., Brown Tiger, Eastern King and Greasyback Prawns). Generalised linear models were used to explain the variation in catch as a function of effort (i.e., hours fished per day), vessel and gear characteristics, onboard technologies, population abundance and environmental factors. This analysis estimated that fishing power associated with Brown Tiger and Eastern King Prawns increased over the past 20 years by 10–30% and declined by approximately 10% for greasybacks. The density of tiger prawns was estimated to have almost tripled from around 0.5 kg per hectare in 1988 to 1.5 kg/ha in 2010. The density of Eastern King Prawns was estimated to have fluctuated between 1 and 2 kg per hectare over this time period, without any noticeable overall trend, while Greasyback Prawn densities were estimated to have fluctuated between 2 and 6 kg per hectare, also without any distinctive trend. A model of tiger prawn catches was developed to evaluate the impact of fishing on prawn survival rates in Moreton Bay. The model was fitted to logbook data using the maximum-likelihood method to provide estimates of the natural mortality rate (0.038 and 0.062 per week) and catchability (which can be defined as the proportion of the fished population that is removed by one unit of effort, in this case, estimated to be 2.5 ± 0.4 E-04 per boat-day). This approach provided a method for industry and scientists to develop together a realistic model of the dynamics of the fishery. Several aspects need to be developed further to make this model acceptable to industry. Firstly, there is considerable evidence to suggest that temperature influences prawn catchability. This ecological effect should be incorporated before developing meaningful harvest strategies. Secondly, total effort has to be allocated between each species. Such allocation of effort could be included in the model by estimating several catchability coefficients. Nevertheless, the work presented in this report is a stepping stone towards estimating essential fishery parameters and developing representative mathematical models required to evaluate harvest strategies. Developing a method that allowed an effective discussion between industry, management and scientists took longer than anticipated. As a result, harvest strategy evaluations were preliminary and only included the most valuable species in the fishery, Brown Tiger Prawns. Additional analyses and data collection, including information on catch composition from field sampling, migration rates and recruitment, would improve the modelling. Harvest strategy evaluations As the harvest strategy evaluations are preliminary, the following results should not be adopted for management purposes until more thorough evaluations are performed. The effects, of closing the fishery for one calendar month, on the annual catch and value of Brown Tiger Prawns were investigated. Each of the 12 months (i.e., January to December) was evaluated. The results were compared against historical records to determine the magnitude of gain or loss associated with the closure. Uncertainty regarding the trawl selectivity was addressed using two selectivity curves, one with a weight at 50% selection (S50%) of 7 g, based on research data, and a second with S50% of 14 g, put forward by industry. In both cases, it was concluded that any monthly closure after February would not be beneficial to the industry. The magnitude of the benefit of closing the fishery in either January or February was sensitive to which mesh selectivity curve that was assumed, with greater benefit achieved when the smaller selectivity curve (i.e., S50% = 7 g) was assumed. Using the smaller selectivity (S50% = 7 g), the expected increase in catch value was 10–20% which equates to $200,000 to $400,000 annually, while the larger selectivity curve (S50% = 14 g) suggested catch value would be improved by 5–10%, or $100,000 to $200,000. The harvest strategy evaluations showed that greater benefits, in the order of 30–60% increases in the tiger annual catch value, could have been obtained by closing the fishery early in the year when annual effort levels were high (i.e., > 10,000 boat-days). In recent years, as effort levels have declined (i.e., ~4000 boat-days annually), expected benefits from such closures are more modest. In essence, temporal closures offer greater benefit when fishing mortality rates are high. A spatial analysis of Brown Tiger Prawn catch and effort was also undertaken to obtain a better understanding of the prawn population dynamics. This indicated that, to improve profitability of the fishery, fishers could consider closing the fishery in the period from June to October, which is already a period of low profitability. This would protect the Brown Tiger Prawn spawning stock, increase catch rates of all species in the lucrative pre-Christmas period (November–December), and provide fishers with time to do vessel maintenance, arrange markets for the next season’s harvest, and, if they wish, work at other jobs. The analysis found that the instantaneous rate of total mortality (Z) for the March–June period did not vary significantly over the last two decades. As the Brown Tiger Prawn population in Moreton Bay has clearly increased over this time period, an interesting conclusion is that the instantaneous rate of natural mortality (M) must have increased, suggesting that tiger prawn natural mortality may be density-dependent at this time of year. Mortality rates of tiger prawns for June–October were found to have decreased over the last two decades, which has probably had a positive effect on spawning stocks in the October–November spawning period. Abiotic effects on the prawns The influence of air temperature, rainfall, freshwater flow, the southern oscillation index (SOI) and lunar phase on the catch rates of the four main prawn species were investigated. The analyses were based on over 200,000 daily logbook catch records over 23 years (i.e., 1988–2010). Freshwater flow was more influential than rainfall and SOI, and of the various sources of flow, the Brisbane River has the greatest volume and influence on Moreton Bay prawn catches. A number of time-lags were also considered. Flow in the preceding month prior to catch (i.e., 30 days prior, Logflow1_30) and two months prior (31–60 days prior, Logflow31_60) had strong positive effects on Banana Prawn catch rates. Average air temperature in the preceding 4-6 months (Temp121_180) also had a large positive effect on Banana Prawn catch rates. Flow in the month immediately preceding catch (Logflow1_30) had a strong positive influence on Greasyback Prawn catch rates. Air temperature in the preceding two months prior to catch (Temp1_60) had a large positive effect on Brown Tiger Prawn catch rates. No obvious or marked effects were detected for Eastern King Prawns, although interestingly, catch rates declined with increasing air temperature 4–6 months prior to catch. As most Eastern King Prawn catches in Moreton Bay occur in October to December, the results suggest catch rates decline with increasing winter temperatures. In most cases, the prawn catch rates declined with the waxing lunar phase (high luminance/full moon), and increased with the waning moon (low luminance/new moon). The SOI explains little additional variation in prawn catch rates (~ <2%), although its influence was higher for Banana Prawns. Extrapolating findings of the analyses to long-term climate change effects should be interpreted with caution. That said, the results are consistent with likely increases in abundance in the region for the two tropical species, Banana Prawns and Brown Tiger Prawns, as coastal temperatures rise. Conversely, declines in abundance could be expected for the two temperate species, Greasyback and Eastern King Prawns. Corporate management structures An examination of alternative governance systems was requested by the industry at one of the early meetings, particularly systems that may give them greater autonomy in decision making as well as help improve the marketing of their product. Consequently, a review of alternative management systems was undertaken, with a particular focus on the potential for self-management of small fisheries (small in terms of number of participants) and corporate management. The review looks at systems that have been implemented or proposed for other small fisheries internationally, with a particular focus on self-management as well as the potential benefits and challenges for corporate management. This review also highlighted particular opportunities for the Moreton Bay prawn fishery. Corporate management differs from other co-management and even self-management arrangements in that ‘ownership’ of the fishery is devolved to a company in which fishers and government are shareholders. The company manages the fishery as well as coordinates marketing to ensure that the best prices are received and that the catch taken meets the demands of the market. Coordinated harvesting will also result in increased profits, which are returned to fishers in the form of dividends. Corporate management offers many of the potential benefits of an individual quota system without formally implementing such a system. A corporate management model offers an advantage over a self-management model in that it can coordinate both marketing and management to take advantage of this unique geographical advantage. For such a system to be successful, the fishery needs to be relatively small and self- contained. Small in this sense is in terms of number of operators. The Moreton Bay prawn fishery satisfies these key conditions for a successful self-management and potentially corporate management system. The fishery is small both in terms of number of participants and geography. Unlike other fisheries that have progressed down the self-management route, the key market for the product from the Moreton Bay fishery is right at its doorstep. Corporate management also presents a number of challenges. First, it will require changes in the way fishers operate. In particular, the decision on when to fish and what to catch will be taken away from the individual and decided by the collective. Problems will develop if individuals do not join the corporation but continue to fish and market their own product separately. While this may seem an attractive option to fishers who believe they can do better independently, this is likely to be just a short- term advantage with an overall long-run cost to themselves as well as the rest of the industry. There are also a number of other areas that need further consideration, particularly in relation to the allocation of shares, including who should be allocated shares (e.g. just boat owners or also some employed skippers). Similarly, how harvesting activity is to be allocated by the corporation to the fishers. These are largely issues that cannot be answered without substantial consultation with those likely to be affected, and these groups cannot give these issues serious consideration until the point at which they are likely to become a reality. Given the current structure and complexity of the fishery, it is unlikely that such a management structure will be feasible in the short term. However, the fishery is a prime candidate for such a model, and development of such a management structure in the future should be considered as an option for the longer term.

Optimal multispecies fishery management in the Baltic Sea: A bioeconomic analysis

The aim of the thesis is to assess the fishery of Baltic cod, herring and sprat by simulation over 50 years time period. We form a bioeconomic multispecies model for the species. We include species interactions into the model because especially cod and sprat stocks have significant effects on each other. We model the development of population dynamics, catches and profits of the fishery with current fishing mortalities, as well as with the optimal profit maximizing fishing mortalities. Thus, we see how the fishery would develop with current mortalities, and how the fishery should be developed in order to yield maximal profits. Especially cod stock has been quite low recently and by optimizing the fishing mortality it could get recovered. In addition, we assess what would happen to the fisheries of the species if more favourable environmental conditions for cod recruitment dominate in the Baltic Sea. The results may yield new information for the fisheries management. According to the results the fishery of Baltic cod, herring and sprat are not at the most profitable level. The fishing mortalities of each species should be lower in order to maximize the profits. By fishing mortality optimizing the net present value would be almost three times higher in the simulation period. The lower fishing mortality of cod would result in a cod stock recovery. If the environmental conditions in the Baltic Sea improved, cod stock would recover even without a decrease in the fishing mortality. Then the increased cod stock would restrict herring and sprat stock remarkably, and harvesting of these species would not be as profitable anymore.

VAM applied to dimensional reduction of non-linear hyperelastic plates

This work aims at dimensional reduction of non-linear isotropic hyperelastic plates in an asymptotically accurate manner. The problem is both geometrically and materially non-linear. The geometric non-linearity is handled by allowing for finite deformations and generalized warping while the material non-linearity is incorporated through hyperelastic material model. The development, based on the Variational Asymptotic Method (VAM) with moderate strains and very small thickness to shortest wavelength of the deformation along the plate reference surface as small parameters, begins with three-dimensional (3-D) non-linear elasticity and mathematically splits the analysis into a one-dimensional (1-D) through-the-thickness analysis and a two-dimensional (2-D) plate analysis. Major contributions of this paper are derivation of closed-form analytical expressions for warping functions and stiffness coefficients and a set of recovery relations to express approximately the 3-D displacement, strain and stress fields. Consistent with the 2-D non-linear constitutive laws, 2-D plate theory and corresponding finite element program have been developed. Validation of present theory is carried out with a standard test case and the results match well. Distributions of 3-D results are provided for another test case. (c) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

PolyMage: Automatic Optimization for Image Processing Pipelines

This paper presents the design and implementation of PolyMage, a domain-specific language and compiler for image processing pipelines. An image processing pipeline can be viewed as a graph of interconnected stages which process images successively. Each stage typically performs one of point-wise, stencil, reduction or data-dependent operations on image pixels. Individual stages in a pipeline typically exhibit abundant data parallelism that can be exploited with relative ease. However, the stages also require high memory bandwidth preventing effective utilization of parallelism available on modern architectures. For applications that demand high performance, the traditional options are to use optimized libraries like OpenCV or to optimize manually. While using libraries precludes optimization across library routines, manual optimization accounting for both parallelism and locality is very tedious. The focus of our system, PolyMage, is on automatically generating high-performance implementations of image processing pipelines expressed in a high-level declarative language. Our optimization approach primarily relies on the transformation and code generation capabilities of the polyhedral compiler framework. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first model-driven compiler for image processing pipelines that performs complex fusion, tiling, and storage optimization automatically. Experimental results on a modern multicore system show that the performance achieved by our automatic approach is up to 1.81x better than that achieved through manual tuning in Halide, a state-of-the-art language and compiler for image processing pipelines. For a camera raw image processing pipeline, our performance is comparable to that of a hand-tuned implementation.

WebDiagram3.0

En este proyecto de Fin de Carrera se ha creado una nueva versión de la herramienta WebDiagram, cuya función es facilitar el desarrollo de aplicaciones interactivas mediante la metodología InterMod. La nueva versión de la herramienta se basa en la versión anterior y se diferencia en que contiene un prototipo del Modelo de Diálogo completamente funcional. Además, WebDiagram 3.0 incorpora la concurrencia y mejora algunos aspectos del diagrama. En WebDiagram2.0 se detectaron diversos fallos en la ejecución del programa de prototipado, difíciles de solucionar, que venían arrastrándose a lo largo de las versiones efectuadas de esta herramienta. Con el objetivo de conseguir eliminar todos estos bugs se decidió partir de cero e incorporar el desarrollo guiado por pruebas, también conocido como Test-driven development. Este proceso de desarrollo facilita la corrección de errores, primero escribiendo las pruebas que fallan, y después implementando el código que hace que pase la prueba satisfactoriamente. Las pruebas han sido organizadas en base a Objetivos de Usuario. A lo largo de las iteraciones del proceso se han validado a nivel de requerimientos, presentación y funcionalidad, tal y como aconseja la metodología InterMod. Finalmente, cabe destacar que se ha intentado llevar a cabo el proyecto haciendo un seguimiento activo junto con la directora y otro miembro evaluador para, principalmente, fomentar el trabajo en equipo.

Assessing tourist demand for traditional coastal dependent businesses on the South Carolina coast

Tourism driven development and coastal gentrification have resulted in a notable decline in traditional coastaldependent businesses on the South Carolina (SC) coast. We examined the sustainability of these businesses by assessing tourists’ demand for local, traditional, and marine related products and services. The research integrated focus groups and an intercept-based mail survey. This paper reports selected survey results and discusses how the findings will be incorporated into small-business training materials. (PDF contains 4 pages)

A agenda do desenvolvimento na promoção dos direitos humanos: uma análise da política externa brasileira no governo Lula

Os direitos humanos consolidaram um conjunto de valores ético-políticos considerados fundamentais para assegurar o respeito à dignidade do ser humano. A problemática do desenvolvimento é fundamental para as considerações de política externa de países como o Brasil. A consagração do Direito ao Desenvolvimento (DaD) como um direito humano desafia a divisão artificial dos direitos humanos e revela a evolução temática deste campo de estudo. Essa dissertação usa o instrumental dos direitos humanos para avaliar a relevância e a singularidade de algumas posições brasileiras. Após uma dissonância observada nos anos 1970, reflexo do ciclo autoritário por que passava o país, verificou-se postura cooperativa do Brasil nas proposições que versavam sobre o DaD. No mesmo sentido, observou-se que, conquanto não seja conceito recorrente no discurso oficial brasileiro, as posições do país, no que dizem respeito ao modelo de desenvolvimento defendido e aos direitos humanos, autorizam a inferência de que há uma harmonia em relação aos princípios fundamentais dispostos na Declaração sobre o DaD, de 1986. Da análise das posições brasileiras, tornou-se possível particularizar a política externa do governo Lula. Do levantamento das variáveis internas e externas que exercem influência sobre a formulação política do governo, bem como das iniciativas públicas e dos discursos oficiais, encontramos alguma evidência empírica no sentido de que a política externa brasileira para os direitos humanos, na administração de Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, passa por um viés de promoção do desenvolvimento e de crítica à ordem internacional. A política se singulariza por incorporar uma dimensão de valores à crítica. Com isso, harmoniza-se com as posições defendidas pelo país nos plenários internacionais, onde o tema do DaD tem sido objeto de debate.

Construcción de una aplicación basada en modelos para la generación de guías de test integrados en la plataforma de ejecución de guías de práctica clínica AIDE-GTP

Este proyecto trata de abordar las transformaciones entre diferentes estándares para Test Informatizados, de manera automática, gracias a la Ingeniería dirigida por Modelos (MDE - Model Driven Engineer), para así obtener un estándar capaz de formar parte en una plataforma de ejecución de Guías de Práctica Clínica. Esto se consigue mediante la generación automática de Guías de Test, partiendo de Test Informatizados en los formatos estándar Aiken y Gift.

A concretização de políticas públicas na área cultural como garantia de efetiva concessão de direitos sociais

O estudo propõe uma reflexão sobre o Direito à Cultura sob a ótica dos Direitos Fundamentais por meio de uma abordagem contextualizada com as formas em que este direito, seja pelo enfoque individual, seja pelo aspecto coletivo, se concretiza e com as atuações estatais que contribuem para tanto em um cenário de prevalência do modo de vida urbano não só nas cidades, mas também em comunidades outrora tidas como rurais, mas que absorvem progressivamente o modo de vida urbano. A Constituição Federal reconhece amplamente os Direitos Culturais, tendo-os como direitos imprescindíveis para a dignidade da pessoa humana em uma vida em sociedade, mas também impondo ao Poder Público que articule as Políticas Públicas proporcionando instrumentos para que as relações sociais desenvolvam-se em um ambiente de respeito à diversidade cultural e de fomento às manifestações culturais, por ver nelas um patrimônio do povo brasileiro e um espaço de exercício da personalidade de cada indivíduo. Para tanto, a dissertação apresenta uma ampla pesquisa sobre a legislação relacionada com o setor e mostra como estas Políticas Públicas podem estimular a Economia da Cultura em prol de um novo modelo de desenvolvimento, mais sustentável do que o paradigma industrial apresenta.

A mercantilização do meio ambiente na cidade de Cabo Frio a partir dos fundamentos de Pierre George

A presente pesquisa mostra a teoria de Pierre George, geógrafo francês que viveu e analisou o século XX. O autor produziu uma leitura crítica da realidade, a partir de um contexto com várias transformações espaciais, guerras, expansão da industrialização, desenvolvimento das políticas do meio ambiente, questões sociais, entre outros pontos. Pierre George analisa o meio ambiente relacionando com o sistema econômico e os fatores políticos, indicando a função importante do espaço o conceito geográfico central. A partir das décadas de 1960 e 1970, há no capitalismo o novo sistema verde, que promete cuidar da degradação ambiental, mas estrategicamente pretende continuar o modelo de desenvolvimento. Esta realidade será incorporada por várias cidades em países desenvolvidos e em países subdesenvolvidos, que usarão o meio ambiente como uma mercadoria. Nesta pesquisa veremos o exemplo de Cabo Frio, Rj, uma cidade turística desde a década de 1950, que utiliza o meio ambiente como uma mercadoria, explorando a praia, os espaços verdes e a lagoa. Então a cidade será um exemplo excelente para confirmar a análise de George

Linear gaussian computations for near-exact Bayesian Monte Carlo inference in skewed alpha-stable time series models

In this paper we study parameter estimation for time series with asymmetric α-stable innovations. The proposed methods use a Poisson sum series representation (PSSR) for the asymmetric α-stable noise to express the process in a conditionally Gaussian framework. That allows us to implement Bayesian parameter estimation using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. We further enhance the series representation by introducing a novel approximation of the series residual terms in which we are able to characterise the mean and variance of the approximation. Simulations illustrate the proposed framework applied to linear time series, estimating the model parameter values and model order P for an autoregressive (AR(P)) model driven by asymmetric α-stable innovations. © 2012 IEEE.

Unified modelling in support of organization design and change

The aim of this research is to provide a unified modelling-based method to help with the evaluation of organization design and change decisions. Relevant literature regarding model-driven organization design and change is described. This helps identify the requirements for a new modelling methodology. Such a methodology is developed and described. The three phases of the developed method include the following. First, the use of CIMOSA-based multi-perspective enterprise modelling to understand and capture the most enduring characteristics of process-oriented organizations and externalize various types of requirement knowledge about any target organization. Second, the use of causal loop diagrams to identify dynamic causal impacts and effects related to the issues and constraints on the organization under study. Third, the use of simulation modelling to quantify the effects of each issue in terms of organizational performance. The design and case study application of a unified modelling method based on CIMOSA (computer integrated manufacturing open systems architecture) enterprise modelling, causal loop diagrams, and simulation modelling, is explored to illustrate its potential to support systematic organization design and change. Further application of the proposed methodology in various company and industry sectors, especially in manufacturing sectors, would be helpful to illustrate complementary uses and relative benefits and drawbacks of the methodology in different types of organization. The proposed unified modelling-based method provides a systematic way of enabling key aspects of organization design and change. The case company, its relevant data, and developed models help to explore and validate the proposed method. The application of CIMOSA-based unified modelling method and integrated application of these three modelling techniques within a single solution space constitutes an advance on previous best practice. Also, the purpose and application domain of the proposed method offers an addition to knowledge. © IMechE 2009.

Geometric phase of a bipartite system with Dzyaloshinski-Moriya interaction

The Berry phase of a bipartite system described by a Heisenberg XXZ model driven by a one-site magnetic field is investigated. The effect of the Dzyaloshinski-Moriya (DM) anisotropic interaction on the Berry phase is discussed. It is found that the DM interaction affects the Berry phase monotonously. and can also cause sudden change of the Berry phase for some weak magnetic field cases. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

基于随机过程仿真的测试驱动开发策略研究及其实现

现代软件开发项目规模的日益增大和复杂度的日益提高要求软件组织采用更有效的软件开发方法。学术界和工业界提出了一系列的软件工程方法，其主要目的是提高软件产品质量，保障项目进度，降低项目成本，减少维护费用。测试驱动开发（Test-Driven Development TDD），作为敏捷开发中一种非常流行的方法，经过最近十来年的发展，无论在工业界还是在学术界均有大量成功应用案例；同时测试驱动开发的思想也已经日益为越来越多的软件开发组织和开发者所接受。 尽管测试驱动开发（TDD）可以提高软件产品的质量和软件开发人员的生产率，但是其实施难度令众多软件开发组织对于测试驱动开发方法望而却步。同时在实际项目中由于进度压力，严格的测试驱动开发往往不能自始至中贯彻执行，而且在满足软件产品质量要求的条件下，我们没有必要为了达到零缺陷而对每个开发模块进行测试驱动开发。因此我们有必要对于软件组织是否采用TDD方式开发，对于哪些模块采用TDD方式开发进行有效合理的评价，以便为软件项目管理人员提供决策依据。软件过程仿真，无疑是一种低成本，且较为科学的方法，它能够在已有信息的基础上，提供科学的决策依据。 本文以测试驱动开发大量的经验研究结论为依据，提出一种基于过程模型随机仿真的TDD模块选取方法。该方法以随机进程代数为建模工具，通过用例度量软件模块的复杂性，来获取模型的仿真参数，进行仿真并得到该模型的仿真结果。最终采用TDD模块选取算法来分析仿真结果，得出最佳TDD实施策略，可以为项目经理提供合理的TDD实施策略。本文主要研究内容包括 第一、提出一种度量软件模块复杂性的简易计算方法，该方法从软件模块的内部复杂度和外部复杂度出发，引入结构熵的概念；用结构熵度量软件外部复杂度，用例中的事件流来度量内部复杂度，最终得到模块复杂度和该模块相应的仿真参数。 第二、对于测试驱动开发过程和传统的软件开发过程，建立随机进程代数仿真模型。经过比较多种仿真方法后，选取Gibson-Bruck随机仿真方法对于软件过程进行仿真。并分析了采用该算法的合理性。 第三、提出一种基于过程模型随机仿真的TDD实施模块选取算法，从仿真结果出发，为项目经理提供合理的决策支持。同时为了便于本方法的应用，设计实现了基于过程模型随机仿真的TDD模块选取系统。