Control in distribution networks with demand side management

The way in which electricity networks operate is going through a period of significant change. Renewable generation technologies are having a growing presence and increasing penetrations of generation that are being connected at distribution level. Unfortunately, a renewable energy source is most of the time intermittent and needs to be forecasted. Current trends in Smart grids foresee the accommodation of a variety of distributed generation sources including intermittent renewable sources. It is also expected that smart grids will include demand management resources, widespread communications and control technologies required to use demand response are needed to help the maintenance in supply-demand balance in electricity systems. Consequently, smart household appliances with controllable loads will be likely a common presence in our homes. Thus, new control techniques are requested to manage the loads and achieve all the potential energy present in intermittent energy sources. This thesis is focused on the development of a demand side management control method in a distributed network, aiming the creation of greater flexibility in demand and better ease the integration of renewable technologies. In particular, this work presents a novel multi-agent model-based predictive control method to manage distributed energy systems from the demand side, in presence of limited energy sources with fluctuating output and with energy storage in house-hold or car batteries. Specifically, here is presented a solution for thermal comfort which manages a limited shared energy resource via a demand side management perspective, using an integrated approach which also involves a power price auction and an appliance loads allocation scheme. The control is applied individually to a set of Thermal Control Areas, demand units, where the objective is to minimize the energy usage and not exceed the limited and shared energy resource, while simultaneously indoor temperatures are maintained within a comfort frame. Thermal Control Areas are overall thermodynamically connected in the distributed environment and also coupled by energy related constraints. The energy split is performed based on a fixed sequential order established from a previous completed auction wherein the bids are made by each Thermal Control Area, acting as demand side management agents, based on the daily energy price. The developed solutions are explained with algorithms and are applied to different scenarios, being the results explanatory of the benefits of the proposed approaches.

O abuso de informação privilegiada (insider trading)

In the stock market, information takes on special relevance, due to the market’s permanent updating and the great fluidity of information existent therein. Just as in any other negotiations, the party with the better information has a bargaining advantage, as it is able to make more advantageous business decisions. However, unlike most other markets, the proper functioning of the stock market is greatly dependent on investors’ trust in the market itself. As such, if there are investors who, due to any condition they possess or office they hold, have access to relevant information which is not accessible to the general public, distrust is bred within the market and, consequently, investment is lessened. Thus, there is a need to prevent those who hold privileged information from using it in abusive ways. In Portugal, abuse of privileged information is set out and punished criminally in Article 378. of the Portuguese Securities Code (‘Código dos Valores Mobiliários’). In this dissertation, I have set out, firstly, to analyze the inherent conditions for there to be a crime of abuse of privileged information; secondly, to analyze two well-known cases, which took place and were decided in other jurisdictions, and attempt to understand how these cases would fall under Article 378. of the Portuguese Securities Code. Whereas the first case, Chiarella v. United States, was scrutinize under Article 378 of the Portuguese Securities Code, in the second, Lafonta v. AMF, the conclusion arrived at was that the crime taken place was different. This analysis allowed, on one hand, the application to a particular case of prerequisites and concepts which were explained, at a first approach, from a more theoretical perspective; on the other hand, it also allowed the further development of specific aspects of the regime, namely the difference between an insider and a tipee, as well as to more clearly set out the limits to the precise character of the information at hand.

Predicting market movement with Artificial Neural Networks

This paper presents an application of an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to the prediction of stock market direction in the US. Using a multilayer perceptron neural network and a backpropagation algorithm for the training process, the model aims at learning the hidden patterns in the daily movement of the S&P500 to correctly identify if the market will be in a Trend Following or Mean Reversion behavior. The ANN is able to produce a successful investment strategy which outperforms the buy and hold strategy, but presents instability in its overall results which compromises its practical application in real life investment decisions.

The role of the intelligence service in preventing and combating transnational terrorism

Outrora dominado por ameaças provenientes de Estados-nação, o cenário global actual, dominado por uma rápida mudança de poderes que nos apresenta uma interacção complexa entre múltiplos actores, onde inimigos desconhecidos, anteriormente bem identificados, é actualmente controlado por grupos terroristas bem preparados e bem organizados. Hezbollah é reconhecido como um dos grupos terroristas mais capazes, com uma extensa rede fora do Líbano dedicada a tráfico de droga, armas e seres humanos, tal como o branqueamento de capitais para financiar o terrorismo, representando um grande foco de instabilidade à segurança. Como instrumento de Estado, os serviços de informações detêm a capacidade de estar na linha da frente na prevenção e combate ao terrorismo. Todavia, para compreender este fenómeno é necessário analisar os actores desta ameaça. À luz desta conjuntura, esta dissertação está dividida em três capítulos principais que visam responder às seguintes questões fundamentais: O que é o terrorismo? Como opera um grupo terrorista transnacional? Será que os serviços de informações têm as ferramentas necessárias para prevenir e combater estas ameaças?

Trading the changes of stock market index composition: Evidence from European markets

This paper studies the changes in European stock market indexes composition from 1995 to 2015. It was found that there are mixed price effects producing abnormal returns around the effective replacement of added and deleted stocks. The price pressure hypothesis seems to hold for added stocks in some indexes but not for deleted stocks as there is not a clear inversion of behaviour after the replacement. Finally, the building and back testing of a trading strategy aiming to capture some of those abnormal returns shows it yields a Sharpe Ratio of 1.4 and generates an annualised alpha of 11%.

A internet e o sistema de justiça

The subject of study of this Thesis aims to highlight and recognize as an object of reflection the undoubted relationship between the Internet and the Justice System, based on the issue of digital evidence. The simultaneously crossing of the juridical-legal implications and the more technical computer issues is the actual trigger for the discussion of the issues established. The Convention on Cybercrime of the Council of Europe of 23rd November 2001 and the Council Framework Decision n.° 2005/222/JHA of 24th February 2005 were avant-garde in terms of the international work about the crimes in the digital environment. In addition they enabled the harmonization of national legislations on the matter and, consequently, a greater flexibility in international judicial cooperation. Portugal, in compliance with these international studies, ratified, implemented and approved Law n. º 109/2009 of 15th September concerning the Cybercrime Act, establishing a more specific investigation and collection of evidence in electronic support when it comes to combating this type of crime, as it reinforced the Substantive Criminal Law and Procedural Nature. Nevertheless, the constant debates about the New Technologies of Information and Communication have not neglected the positive role of these tools for the user. However, they express a particular concern for their counterproductive effects; a special caution prevails on the part of the judge in assessing the digital evidence, especially circumstantial evidence, due to the its fragility. Indisputably, the practice of crimes through the computer universe, given its inexorable technical complexity, entails many difficulties for the forensic investigation, since the proofs hold temporary, changeable, volatile, and dispersed features. In this pillar, after the consummation of iter criminis, the Fundamental Rights of the suspects may be debated in the course of the investigation and the construction of iter probatorium. The intent of this Thesis is to contribute in a reflective way on the issues presented in order to achieve a bigger technical and legal awareness regarding the collection of digital proof, looking for a much lighter approach to its suitability in terms of evidentiary value.

Engineering bio-based polymers using alternative solvents and processes

The work presented in this thesis explores novel routes for the processing of bio-based polymers, developing a sustainable approach based on the use of alternative solvents such as supercritical carbon dioxide (scCO2), ionic liquids (ILs) and deep eutectic solvents (DES). The feasibility to produce polymeric foams via supercritical fluid (SCF) foaming, combined with these solvents was assessed, in order to replace conventional foaming techniques that use toxic and harmful solvents. A polymer processing methodology is presented, based on SCF foaming and using scCO2 as a foaming agent. The SCF foaming of different starch based polymeric blends was performed, namely starch/poly(lactic acid) (SPLA) and starch/poly(ε-caprolactone) (SPCL). The foaming process is based on the fact that CO2 molecules can dissolve in the polymer, changing their mechanical properties and after suitable depressurization, are able to create a foamed (porous) material. In these polymer blends, CO2 presents limited solubility and in order to enhance the foaming effect, two different imidazolium based ILs (IBILs) were combined with this process, by doping the blends with IL. The use of ILs proved useful and improved the foaming effect in these starch-based polymer blends. Infrared spectroscopy (FTIR-ATR) proved the existence of interactions between the polymer blend SPLA and ILs, which in turn diminish the forces that hold the polymeric structure. This is directly related with the ability of ILs to dissolve more CO2. This is also clear from the sorption experiments results, where the obtained apparent sorption coefficients in presence of IL are higher compared to the ones of the blend SPLA without IL. The doping of SPCL with ILs was also performed. The foaming of the blend was achieved and resulted in porous materials with conductivity values close to the ones of pure ILs. This can open doors to applications as self-supported conductive materials. A different type of solvents were also used in the previously presented processing method. If different applications of the bio-based polymers are envisaged, replacing ILs must be considered, especially due to the poor sustainability of some ILs and the fact that there is not a well-established toxicity profile. In this work natural DES – NADES – were the solvents of choice. They present some advantages relatively to ILs since they are easy to produce, cheaper, biodegradable and often biocompatible, mainly due to the fact that they are composed of primary metabolites such as sugars, carboxylic acids and amino-acids. NADES were prepared and their physicochemical properties were assessed, namely the thermal behavior, conductivity, density, viscosity and polarity. With this study, it became clear that these properties can vary with the composition of NADES, as well as with their initial water content. The use of NADES in the SCF foaming of SPCL, acting as foaming agent, was also performed and proved successful. The SPCL structure obtained after SCF foaming presented enhanced characteristics (such as porosity) when compared with the ones obtained using ILs as foaming enhancers. DES constituted by therapeutic compounds (THEDES) were also prepared. The combination of choline chloride-mandelic acid, and menthol-ibuprofen, resulted in THEDES with thermal behavior very distinct from the one of their components. The foaming of SPCL with THEDES was successful, and the impregnation of THEDES in SPCL matrices via SCF foaming was successful, and a controlled release system was obtained in the case of menthol-ibuprofen THEDES.

A importância da comunicação estratégica na alteração de comportamentos na sociedade : o caso Sociedade Ponto Verde

A comunicação estratégica poderá ser entendida como a comunicação alinhada com a estratégia global de uma organização para alcançar o seu posicionamento estratégico. Ou seja, para alcançar o sucesso, uma organização precisa de ter uma comunicação consistente com a sua identidade e, ao mesmo tempo, adequada ao seu público-alvo e ao tipo de sector onde se insere. Só desta forma consegue conquistar a confiança e fidelidade dos consumidores, essenciais para o alcance dos objectivos. Em relação à alteração comportamentos, é essencial que as empresas costruam uma estratégia de comunicação coerente e consistente, adaptando as mensagens e os públicos-alvo escolhidos. Neste âmbito da alteração de comportamentos, estudou-se neste trabalho a Sociedade Ponto Verde (SPV), uma associação portuguesa sem fins lucrativos, que actua no âmbito da gestão e reciclagem de resíduos de embalagens. Procurou estudar-se a evolução da sua comunicação ao longo dos anos e a forma como adaptou as suas mensagens, de forma a conseguir incutir na sociedade portuguesa a importância do comportamento de reciclagem de resíduos. Neste estudo, procedeu-se a uma análise individualizada de cada uma das campanhas de comunicação da SPV e, posteriormente, aplicou-se um inquérito por questionário, para verificar a eficácia das mesmas campanhas perante o público-alvo. A metodologia utilizada neste trabalho consistiu na distribuição de um inquérito por questionário online, que permitiu recolher uma amostra probabilística por conveniência. Em seguida, recolhidos e tratados os dados referentes às 482 respostas recebidas, utilizou-se o programa SPSS (Stastitical Package for the Social Sciences) para analisar, tratar e discutir os resultados obtidos. Estes resultados demonstraram que, de facto, não houve uma grande percentagem de inquiridos que se lembram das campanhas da SPV. Os resultados são positivos e não desmentem a qualidade e coerência das mensagens, mas a verdade é que a percentagem de indivíduos que não se lembra de algumas campanhas chega a ser elevada (em especial nas campanhas iniciais da organização, quando existia falta de uma estratégia coerente). Justifica-se este facto, em parte, pelo excesso de informação e estímulos a que as pessoas estão sujeitas, pelo que a informação que retêm não fica para sempre, acabando por dar lugar a outras informações. Os indivíduos são inconscientemente selectivos com a informação que processam e guardam, pois não seria possível guardar toda a informação que lhes é transmitida. No que diz respeito à comunicação estratégica que visa alterar uma atitude e, posteriormente, um comportamento, conclui-se que, no geral, o comportamento das pessoas inquiridas aparenta ter sido influenciado pela comunicação da SPV, caso contrário, as respostas afirmativas quanto à reciclagem e de concordância com algumas das afirmações teriam sido inferiores. Ou seja, mesmo reconhecendo o carácter um pouco enviesado da amostra (não deverá ser considerada representativa da população portuguesa), é possível dizer que a estratégia de comunicação da SPV (em especial a partir de 2005) foi eficiente. Palavras-

Organic-inorganic nanostructured multilayers for calcium phosphate biomineralization

The weak fixation of biomaterials within the bone structure is one of the major reasons of implants failures. Calcium phosphate (CaP) coatings are used in bone tissue engineering to improve implant osseointegration by enhancing cellular adhesion, proliferation and differentiation, leading to a tight and stable junction between implant and host bone. It has also been observed that materials compatible with bone tissue either have a CaP coating or develop such a calcified surface upon implantation. Thus, the development of bioactive coatings becomes essential for further improvement of integration with the surrounding tissue. However, most of current applied CaP coatings methods (e.g. physical vapor deposition), cannot be applied to complex shapes and porous implants, provide poor structural control over the coating and prevent incorporation of bioactive organic compounds (e.g. antibiotics, growth factors) because of the used harsh processing conditions. Layer-by-layer (LbL) is a versatile technology that permits the building-up of multilayered polyelectrolyte films in mild conditions based on the alternate adsorption of cationic and anionic elements that can integrate bioactive compounds. As it is recognized in natureâ s biomineralization process the presence of an organic template to induce mineral deposition, this work investigate a ion based biomimetic method where all the process is based on LbL methodology made of weak natural-origin polyelectrolytes. A nanostructured multilayer component, with 5 or 10 bilayers, was produced initially using chitosan and chondroitin sulphate polyelectrolyte biopolymers, which possess similarities with the extracellular matrix and good biocompatibility. The multilayers are then rinsed with a sequential passing of solutions containing Ca2+ and PO43- ions. The formation of CaP over the polyelectrolyte multilayers was confirmed by QCM-D, SEM and EDX. The outcomes show that 10 polyelectrolyte bilayer condition behaved as a  better site for initiating the formation of CaP as the precipitation occur at earlier stages than in 5 polyelectrolyte bilayers one. This denotes that higher number of bilayers could hold the CaP crystals more efficiently. This work achieved uniform coatings that can be applied to any surface with access to the liquid media in a low-temperature method, which potentiates the manufacture of effective bioactive biomaterials with great potential in orthopedic applications.

Using data mining for prediction of hospital length of stay: an application of the CRISP-DM Methodology

Hospitals are nowadays collecting vast amounts of data related with patient records. All this data hold valuable knowledge that can be used to improve hospital decision making. Data mining techniques aim precisely at the extraction of useful knowledge from raw data. This work describes an implementation of a medical data mining project approach based on the CRISP-DM methodology. Recent real-world data, from 2000 to 2013, were collected from a Portuguese hospital and related with inpatient hospitalization. The goal was to predict generic hospital Length Of Stay based on indicators that are commonly available at the hospitalization process (e.g., gender, age, episode type, medical specialty). At the data preparation stage, the data were cleaned and variables were selected and transformed, leading to 14 inputs. Next, at the modeling stage, a regression approach was adopted, where six learning methods were compared: Average Prediction, Multiple Regression, Decision Tree, Artificial Neural Network ensemble, Support Vector Machine and Random Forest. The best learning model was obtained by the Random Forest method, which presents a high quality coefficient of determination value (0.81). This model was then opened by using a sensitivity analysis procedure that revealed three influential input attributes: the hospital episode type, the physical service where the patient is hospitalized and the associated medical specialty. Such extracted knowledge confirmed that the obtained predictive model is credible and with potential value for supporting decisions of hospital managers.

Ecos do tempo. A mobilidade de investigadores e estudantes brasileiros em Portugal

A investigação que apresentamos, de caráter exploratório, recaiu sobre histórias biográficas de brasileiros que escolhem Portugal para prosseguir formação e ou investigação. Procura-se encontrar na sua experiência elos de ligação explicativos sobre as motivações e os processos que os trazem para Portugal, assim como as expetativas e os projetos que comportam para os seus futuros e que incluem, ou não, este país. Temos em conta, especialmente, a forma como essa narrativa transporta sentidos identitários decorrentes das formas de relacionamento intercultural e político entre Portugal e Brasil e formas de cooperação implícitas, assim como mapas representacionais acerca dos lugares de eleição para desenvolvimento de carreiras científicas e académicas. A nossa pesquisa incide sobre as informações recolhidas através de um inquérito por questionário e entrevistas realizadas junto de estudantes e bolseiros brasileiros em Portugal.

[An editorial to] Recent Advances on Knowledge Discovery and Business Intelligence

Special issue guest editorial, June, 2015.

Proteção da privacidade em sistemas de dados

Dissertação de Mestrado em Engenharia Informática

Sustainability education in PBL education: the case study of IEM-UMINHO

Sustainability-related skills are becoming more and more relevant for a proficient and professional engineering practice. Industrial engineers in particular, given their broad field of intervention and being at the heart of industrial activity, hold a great deal of potential and responsibility in providing and delivering best industrial practices, that support enhanced industrial systems and products. Therefore making a real contribution in generating wealth and income for all the companies’ stakeholders, including local communities, as well as adding up to more sustainable ecosystems. Previous work by the authors focused on studying the inclusion of this subject on the education of industrial engineers, especially through active-learning methodologies, as well as presenting results on the use of one such approach. The study conducted tried to identify the impacts on sustainability learning using a given specific activity, i.e. a workshop on industrial ecology, held in the 2014/2015 academic year on the Integrated MSc degree on Industrial Engineering and Management at the University of Minho, Portugal. The study uses content analysis of student teams’ reports for two consecutive academic years. The former did not include one such workshop, while the latter did. The Fink taxonomy was used in the discussion of results and reflection. The study outcomes aimed at supporting decision making on worthiness of investment on similar education instruments for sustainability competency development. Some results of the study highlight that: (1) the workshop seem to globally have a positive contribution on the sustainability learning; (2) a number of dimensions of the Life cycle design strategy wheel was developed, but the approach was not broadly used, (3) There was a mismatch on the workshop schedule; (4) students enjoy the workshop; (5) a clearer endorsement on relevance of this aspect is required. Suggestions for future work are also issued.

Algorithms and tools for in silico design of cell factories

PhD thesis in Bioengineering