Spatial prediction on a river network

This article develops methods for spatially predicting daily change of dissolved oxygen (Dochange) at both sampled locations (134 freshwater sites in 2002 and 2003) and other locations of interest throughout a river network in South East Queensland, Australia. In order to deal with the relative sparseness of the monitoring locations in comparison to the number of locations where one might want to make predictions, we make a classification of the river and stream locations. We then implement optimal spatial prediction (ordinary and constrained kriging) from geostatistics. Because of their directed-tree structure, rivers and streams offer special challenges. A complete approach to spatial prediction on a river network is given, with special attention paid to environmental exceedances. The methodology is used to produce a map of Dochange predictions for 2003. Dochange is one of the variables measured as part of the Ecosystem Health Monitoring Program conducted within the Moreton Bay Waterways and Catchments Partnership.

Functional impairments characterising mild, moderate and severe hallux valgus

Objective Hallux valgus has been linked to functional disability and increased falls risk, but mechanisms underpinning functional disability are unclear. This study investigated functional performance, muscle strength and plantar pressures in adults with mild, moderate, and severe HV compared to controls, while considering the influence of foot pain. Methods Sixty adults with hallux valgus (classified as mild, moderate and severe on dorsalplantar radiographs) and 30 controls participated. Measures included: hallux plantarflexion and abduction strength, walking performance, postural sway and forefoot plantar pressures. Multiple analysis of covariance and pairwise comparisons (p<0.05, Bonferroni adjustment) were used to investigate differences between groups, adjusting for age, sex, body mass index and foot pain. Results Hallux plantarflexion and abduction strength was significantly reduced in those with moderate (mean differences: plantarflexion -45.8N, abduction -12.3N, p<0.001) and severe hallux valgus (plantarflexion -50.1N, p<0.001; abduction -11.2N, p=0.01) compared to controls. A significant reduction in hallux peak pressure and pressure-time integral was evident in moderate (peak pressure -90.8kPa, p<0.001) and severe hallux valgus (peak pressure -106.2kPa, p<0.001) compared to controls. Those with severe hallux valgus also demonstrated increased mediolateral postural sway in single leg stance compared to controls (3.5cm, p=0.01). Conclusion Moderate to severe hallux valgus is associated with reduced hallux plantar pressures and strength measures, while relatively normal function compared to controls was found in those with mild deformity. Greater understanding of specific functional deficits associated with different stages of hallux valgus will help inform clinical management and future research.

A comparative analysis of Mitochondrial genomes in Coleoptera (Arthropoda: Insecta) and genome descriptions of six new beetles

Coleoptera is the most diverse group of insects with over 360,000 described species divided into four suborders: Adephaga, Archostemata, Myxophaga, and Polyphaga. In this study, we present six new complete mitochondrial genome (mtgenome) descriptions, including a representative of each suborder, and analyze the evolution of mtgenomes from a comparative framework using all available coleopteran mtgenomes. We propose a modification of atypical cox1 start codons based on sequence alignment to better reflect the conservation observed across species as well as findings of TTG start codons in other genes. We also analyze tRNA-Ser(AGN) anticodons, usually GCU in arthropods, and report a conserved UCU anticodon as a possible synapomorphy across Polyphaga. We further analyze the secondary structure of tRNA-Ser(AGN) and present a consensus structure and an updated covariance model that allows tRNAscan-SE (via the COVE software package) to locate and fold these atypical tRNAs with much greater consistency. We also report secondary structure predictions for both rRNA genes based on conserved stems. All six species of beetle have the same gene order as the ancestral insect. We report noncoding DNA regions, including a small gap region of about 20 bp between tRNA-Ser(UCN) and nad1 that is present in all six genomes, and present results of a base composition analysis.

Comparing the effectiveness of education and technology in reducing wood smoke pollution: A field experiment

This study describes a field experiment assessing the effectiveness of education and technological innovation in reducing air pollution generated by domestic wood heaters. Two-hundred and twenty four households from a small regional center in Australia were randomly assigned to one of four experimental conditions: (1) Education only – households received a wood smoke reduction education pack containing information about the negative health impacts of wood smoke pollution, and advice about wood heater operation and firewood management; (2) SmartBurn only – households received a SmartBurn canister designed to improve combustion and help wood fires burn more efficiently, (3) Education and SmartBurn, and (4) neither Education nor SmartBurn (control). Analysis of covariance, controlling for pre-intervention household wood smoke emissions, wood moisture content, and wood heater age, revealed that education and SmartBurn were both associated with significant reduction in wood smoke emissions during the post-intervention period. Follow-up mediation analyses indicated that education reduced emissions by improving wood heater operation practices, but not by increasing health risk perceptions. As predicted, SmartBurn exerted a direct effect on emission levels, unmediated by wood heater operation practices or health risk perceptions.

A Gaussian pseudolikelihood approach for quantile regression with repeated measurements

To enhance the efficiency of regression parameter estimation by modeling the correlation structure of correlated binary error terms in quantile regression with repeated measurements, we propose a Gaussian pseudolikelihood approach for estimating correlation parameters and selecting the most appropriate working correlation matrix simultaneously. The induced smoothing method is applied to estimate the covariance of the regression parameter estimates, which can bypass density estimation of the errors. Extensive numerical studies indicate that the proposed method performs well in selecting an accurate correlation structure and improving regression parameter estimation efficiency. The proposed method is further illustrated by analyzing a dental dataset.

A new approach to estimating trends in chlamydia incidence

Objectives Directly measuring disease incidence in a population is difficult and not feasible to do routinely. We describe the development and application of a new method of estimating at a population level the number of incident genital chlamydia infections, and the corresponding incidence rates, by age and sex using routine surveillance data. Methods A Bayesian statistical approach was developed to calibrate the parameters of a decision-pathway tree against national data on numbers of notifications and tests conducted (2001-2013). Independent beta probability density functions were adopted for priors on the time-independent parameters; the shape parameters of these beta distributions were chosen to match prior estimates sourced from peer-reviewed literature or expert opinion. To best facilitate the calibration, multivariate Gaussian priors on (the logistic transforms of) the time-dependent parameters were adopted, using the Matérn covariance function to favour changes over consecutive years and across adjacent age cohorts. The model outcomes were validated by comparing them with other independent empirical epidemiological measures i.e. prevalence and incidence as reported by other studies. Results Model-based estimates suggest that the total number of people acquiring chlamydia per year in Australia has increased by ~120% over 12 years. Nationally, an estimated 356,000 people acquired chlamydia in 2013, which is 4.3 times the number of reported diagnoses. This corresponded to a chlamydia annual incidence estimate of 1.54% in 2013, increased from 0.81% in 2001 (~90% increase). Conclusions We developed a statistical method which uses routine surveillance (notifications and testing) data to produce estimates of the extent and trends in chlamydia incidence.

Copula-based spatial modelling of geometallurgical variables

The most important aspect of modelling a geological variable, such as metal grade, is the spatial correlation. Spatial correlation describes the relationship between realisations of a geological variable sampled at different locations. Any method for spatially modelling such a variable should be capable of accurately estimating the true spatial correlation. Conventional kriged models are the most commonly used in mining for estimating grade or other variables at unsampled locations, and these models use the variogram or covariance function to model the spatial correlations in the process of estimation. However, this usage assumes the relationships of the observations of the variable of interest at nearby locations are only influenced by the vector distance between the locations. This means that these models assume linear spatial correlation of grade. In reality, the relationship with an observation of grade at a nearby location may be influenced by both distance between the locations and the value of the observations (ie non-linear spatial correlation, such as may exist for variables of interest in geometallurgy). Hence this may lead to inaccurate estimation of the ore reserve if a kriged model is used for estimating grade of unsampled locations when nonlinear spatial correlation is present. Copula-based methods, which are widely used in financial and actuarial modelling to quantify the non-linear dependence structures, may offer a solution. This method was introduced by Bárdossy and Li (2008) to geostatistical modelling to quantify the non-linear spatial dependence structure in a groundwater quality measurement network. Their copula-based spatial modelling is applied in this research paper to estimate the grade of 3D blocks. Furthermore, real-world mining data is used to validate this model. These copula-based grade estimates are compared with the results of conventional ordinary and lognormal kriging to present the reliability of this method.

Statistically assisted fluid registration algorithm - SAFIRA

In this paper, we develop and validate a new Statistically Assisted Fluid Registration Algorithm (SAFIRA) for brain images. A non-statistical version of this algorithm was first implemented in [2] and re-formulated using Lagrangian mechanics in [3]. Here we extend this algorithm to 3D: given 3D brain images from a population, vector fields and their corresponding deformation matrices are computed in a first round of registrations using the non-statistical implementation. Covariance matrices for both the deformation matrices and the vector fields are then obtained and incorporated (separately or jointly) in the regularizing (i.e., the non-conservative Lagrangian) terms, creating four versions of the algorithm. We evaluated the accuracy of each algorithm variant using the manually labeled LPBA40 dataset, which provides us with ground truth anatomical segmentations. We also compared the power of the different algorithms using tensor-based morphometry -a technique to analyze local volumetric differences in brain structure- applied to 46 3D brain scans from healthy monozygotic twins.

A lagrangian formulation for statistical fluid registration

We defined a new statistical fluid registration method with Lagrangian mechanics. Although several authors have suggested that empirical statistics on brain variation should be incorporated into the registration problem, few algorithms have included this information and instead use regularizers that guarantee diffeomorphic mappings. Here we combine the advantages of a large-deformation fluid matching approach with empirical statistics on population variability in anatomy. We reformulated the Riemannian fluid algorithmdeveloped in [4], and used a Lagrangian framework to incorporate 0 th and 1st order statistics in the regularization process. 92 2D midline corpus callosum traces from a twin MRI database were fluidly registered using the non-statistical version of the algorithm (algorithm 0), giving initial vector fields and deformation tensors. Covariance matrices were computed for both distributions and incorporated either separately (algorithm 1 and algorithm 2) or together (algorithm 3) in the registration. We computed heritability maps and two vector and tensorbased distances to compare the power and the robustness of the algorithms.

A nonconservative Lagrangian framework for statistical fluid registration - SAFIRA

In this paper, we used a nonconservative Lagrangian mechanics approach to formulate a new statistical algorithm for fluid registration of 3-D brain images. This algorithm is named SAFIRA, acronym for statistically-assisted fluid image registration algorithm. A nonstatistical version of this algorithm was implemented, where the deformation was regularized by penalizing deviations from a zero rate of strain. In, the terms regularizing the deformation included the covariance of the deformation matrices Σ and the vector fields (q). Here, we used a Lagrangian framework to reformulate this algorithm, showing that the regularizing terms essentially allow nonconservative work to occur during the flow. Given 3-D brain images from a group of subjects, vector fields and their corresponding deformation matrices are computed in a first round of registrations using the nonstatistical implementation. Covariance matrices for both the deformation matrices and the vector fields are then obtained and incorporated (separately or jointly) in the nonconservative terms, creating four versions of SAFIRA. We evaluated and compared our algorithms' performance on 92 3-D brain scans from healthy monozygotic and dizygotic twins; 2-D validations are also shown for corpus callosum shapes delineated at midline in the same subjects. After preliminary tests to demonstrate each method, we compared their detection power using tensor-based morphometry (TBM), a technique to analyze local volumetric differences in brain structure. We compared the accuracy of each algorithm variant using various statistical metrics derived from the images and deformation fields. All these tests were also run with a traditional fluid method, which has been quite widely used in TBM studies. The versions incorporating vector-based empirical statistics on brain variation were consistently more accurate than their counterparts, when used for automated volumetric quantification in new brain images. This suggests the advantages of this approach for large-scale neuroimaging studies.

Tensor-based analysis of genetic influences on brain integrity using DTI in 100 twins

Information from the full diffusion tensor (DT) was used to compute voxel-wise genetic contributions to brain fiber microstructure. First, we designed a new multivariate intraclass correlation formula in the log-Euclidean framework. We then analyzed used the full multivariate structure of the tensor in a multivariate version of a voxel-wise maximum-likelihood structural equation model (SEM) that computes the variance contributions in the DTs from genetic (A), common environmental (C) and unique environmental (E) factors. Our algorithm was tested on DT images from 25 identical and 25 fraternal twin pairs. After linear and fluid registration to a mean template, we computed the intraclass correlation and Falconer's heritability statistic for several scalar DT-derived measures and for the full multivariate tensors. Covariance matrices were found from the DTs, and inputted into SEM. Analyzing the full DT enhanced the detection of A and C effects. This approach should empower imaging genetics studies that use DTI.

The multivariate A/C/E model and the genetics of fiber architecture

We present a new algorithm to compute the voxel-wise genetic contribution to brain fiber microstructure using diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) in a dataset of 25 monozygotic (MZ) twins and 25 dizygotic (DZ) twin pairs (100 subjects total). First, the structural and DT scans were linearly co-registered. Structural MR scans were nonlinearly mapped via a 3D fluid transformation to a geometrically centered mean template, and the deformation fields were applied to the DTI volumes. After tensor re-orientation to realign them to the anatomy, we computed several scalar and multivariate DT-derived measures including the geodesic anisotropy (GA), the tensor eigenvalues and the full diffusion tensors. A covariance-weighted distance was measured between twins in the Log-Euclidean framework [2], and used as input to a maximum-likelihood based algorithm to compute the contributions from genetics (A), common environmental factors (C) and unique environmental ones (E) to fiber architecture. Quanititative genetic studies can take advantage of the full information in the diffusion tensor, using covariance weighted distances and statistics on the tensor manifold.

Letter: Brain natriuretic peptide is a potentially useful screening tool for the detection of cardiovascular disease in patients with rheumatoid arthritis

Patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) have a significantly higher risk of coronary heart disease, despite being less likely to report symptoms of angina, and are more likely to experience unrecognised myocardial infarction and sudden cardiac death than non-RA controls.1 Furthermore, left ventricular diastolic dysfunction has been described in up to 40% of patients with RA.2...

Robust principal component analysis in water quality index development

Some statistical procedures already available in literature are employed in developing the water quality index, WQI. The nature of complexity and interdependency that occur in physical and chemical processes of water could be easier explained if statistical approaches were applied to water quality indexing. The most popular statistical method used in developing WQI is the principal component analysis (PCA). In literature, the WQI development based on the classical PCA mostly used water quality data that have been transformed and normalized. Outliers may be considered in or eliminated from the analysis. However, the classical mean and sample covariance matrix used in classical PCA methodology is not reliable if the outliers exist in the data. Since the presence of outliers may affect the computation of the principal component, robust principal component analysis, RPCA should be used. Focusing in Langat River, the RPCA-WQI was introduced for the first time in this study to re-calculate the DOE-WQI. Results show that the RPCA-WQI is capable to capture similar distribution in the existing DOE-WQI.