Fact And Fiction In FX Arbitrage Processes

The efficient markets hypothesis implies that arbitrage opportunities in markets such as those for foreign exchange (FX) would be, at most, short-lived. The present paper surveys the fragmented nature of FX markets, revealing that information in these markets is also likely to be fragmented. The “quant” workforce in the hedge fund featured in The Fear Index novel by Robert Harris would have little or no reason for their existence in an EMH world. The four currency combinatorial analysis of arbitrage sequences contained in Cross, Kozyakin, O’Callaghan, Pokrovskii and Pokrovskiy (2012) is then considered. Their results suggest that arbitrage processes, rather than being self-extinguishing, tend to be periodic in nature. This helps explain the fact that arbitrage dealing tends to be endemic in FX markets.

EMU, EU, Market Integration and Consumption Smoothing

We take a new approach to the study of the impact of EMU on consumption smoothing. Rather than relying on inferences based on the behavior of consumption levels or growth, we focus on consumption volatility and therefore on smoothing more directly. Consequently, we find that even though EMU tends to smooth consumption, it is not through cross-country property and claims. Rather it comes through the promotion of the tradability of goods, capital in particular: specifically, the encouragement of price competition, contestable home markets, ability to borrow and buy insurance at home, and the harmonization of regulations. Some of the consumption smoothing may also depend on EU membership rather than EMU as such but EMU adds to it. As a fundamental part of the analysis, the paper uses a new index of currency union which focuses on the ratio of trade with other countries sharing the same currency relative to total foreign trade.

Fact And Fiction In FX Arbitrage Processes

The efficient markets hypothesis implies that arbitrage opportunities in markets such as those for foreign exchange (FX) would be, at most, short-lived. The present paper surveys the fragmented nature of FX markets, revealing that information in these markets is also likely to be fragmented. The “quant” workforce in the hedge fund featured in The Fear Index novel by Robert Harris would have little or no reason for their existence in an EMH world. The four currency combinatorial analysis of arbitrage sequences contained in Cross, Kozyakin, O’Callaghan, Pokrovskii and Pokrovskiy (2012) is then considered. Their results suggest that arbitrage processes, rather than being self-extinguishing, tend to be periodic in nature. This helps explain the fact that arbitrage dealing tends to be endemic in FX markets.

Currency Issues and Options for an Independent Scotland

In this paper we take on the role of a ‘virtual consultant’ to a potentially independent Scotland. What should the exchange rate regime of an independent Scotland look like? We argue that the current proposal of the Scottish government to remain part of the sterling zone is doomed to failure, both because it falls short of a full political and monetary union and because it fails to recognize the reality of the Scottish economy post independence. We argue that the only tenable solution for an independent Scotland is to have a separate currency and for this currency to have some flexibility against Scotland’s main trading partners. One option offered here is managed float or crawl against a basket of currencies.

Currency Forecast Errors at Times of Low Interest Rates: Evidence from Survey Data on the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate

Using survey expectations data and Markov-switching models, this paper evaluates the characteristics and evolution of investors' forecast errors about the yen/dollar exchange rate. Since our model is derived from the uncovered interest rate parity (UIRP) condition and our data cover a period of low interest rates, this study is also related to the forward premium puzzle and the currency carry trade strategy. We obtain the following results. First, with the same forecast horizon, exchange rate forecasts are homogeneous among different industry types, but within the same industry, exchange rate forecasts differ if the forecast time horizon is different. In particular, investors tend to undervalue the future exchange rate for long term forecast horizons; however, in the short run they tend to overvalue the future exchange rate. Second, while forecast errors are found to be partly driven by interest rate spreads, evidence against the UIRP is provided regardless of the forecasting time horizon; the forward premium puzzle becomes more significant in shorter term forecasting errors. Consistent with this finding, our coefficients on interest rate spreads provide indirect evidence of the yen carry trade over only a short term forecast horizon. Furthermore, the carry trade seems to be active when there is a clear indication that the interest rate will be low in the future.

Fact And Fictions In FX Arbitrage Processes

The efficient markets hypothesis implies that arbitrage opportunities in markets such as those for foreign exchange (FX) would be, at most, short-lived. The present paper surveys the fragmented nature of FX markets, revealing that information in these markets is also likely to be fragmented. The “quant” workforce in the hedge fund featured in The Fear Index novel by Robert Harris would have little or no reason for their existence in an EMH world. The four currency combinatorial analysis of arbitrage sequences contained in Cross, Kozyakin, O’Callaghan, Pokrovskii and Pokrovskiy (2012) is then considered. Their results suggest that arbitrage processes, rather than being self-extinguishing, tend to be periodic in nature. This helps explain the fact that arbitrage dealing tends to be endemic in FX markets.

Authoritarian Responses to Foreign Pressure: Spending, Repression, and Sanctions

This paper explores how international sanctions affect authoritarian rulers’ decisions concerning repression and public spending composition, and how different authoritarian rulers respond to foreign pressure. If sanctions are assumed to increase the price of loyalty to the regime, then rulers whose budgets are not severely constrained by sanctions will tend to increase spending in those categories that most benefit their core support groups. In contrast, when constraints are severe due to reduced aid and trade, dictators are expected to greatly increase their levels of repression. Using data on regime types, public expenditures and spending composition (1970–2000) as well as on repression levels (1976–2001), we show that the empirical patterns conform well to our theoretical expectations. Single-party regimes, when targeted by sanctions, increase spending on subsidies and transfers which largely benefit more substantial sectors of the population and especially the urban classes. Likewise, military regimes increase their expenditures on goods and services, which include military equipment and soldiers’ and officers’ wages. Conversely, personalist regimes reduce spending in all categories, especially capital expenditures, while increasing repression much more than other regime types when targeted by sanctions.

Carbon dioxide in scree slope deposits: A pathway from atmosphere to pedogenic carbonate

A continuum of carbon, from atmospheric CO2 to secondary calcium carbonate, has been studied in a soil associ- ated with scree slope deposits in the Jura Mountains of Switzerland. This approach is based on former studies conducted in other environments. This C continuum includes atmospheric CO2, soil organic matter (SOM), soil CO2, dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) in soil solutions, and secondary pedogenic carbonate. Soil parameters (pCO2, temperature, pH, Cmin and Corg contents), soil solution chemistry, and isotopic compositions of soil CO2, DIC, carbonate and soil organic matter (δ13CCO2, δ13CDIC, δ13Ccar and δ13CSOM values) have been monitored at different depths (from 20 to 140 cm) over one year. Results demonstrated that the carbon source in secondary carbonate (mainly needle fiber calcite) is related to the dissolved inorganic carbon, which is strongly dependent on soil respiration. The heterotrophic respiration, rather than the limestone parent material, seems to control the pedogenic carbon cycle. The correlation of δ13Corg values with Rock-Eval HI and OI indices demonstrates that, in a soil associated to scree slope deposits, the main process responsible for 13C-enrichment in SOM is related to bac- terial oxidative decarboxylation. Finally, precipitation of secondary calcium carbonate is enhanced by changes in soil pCO2 associated to the convective movement of air masses induced by temperature gradients (heat pump effect) in the highly porous scree slope deposits. The exportation of soil C-leachates from systems such as the one studied in this paper could partially explain the "gap in the European carbon budget" reported by recent studies.

Civil war and foreign influence

We study a symmetric information bargaining model of civil war where a third (foreign) party can affect the probabilities of winning the conflict and the size of the post conflict spoils. We show that the possible alliance with a third party makes peaceful agreements difficult to reach and might lead to new commitment problems that trigger war. Also, we argue that the foreign party is likely to induce persistent informational asymmetries which might explain long lasting civil wars. We explore both political and economic incentives for a third party to intervene. The explicit consideration of political incentives leads to two predictions that allow for identifying the influence of foreign intervention on civil war incidence. Both predictions are confirmed for the case of the U.S. as a potential intervening nation: (i) civil wars around the world are more likely under Republican governments and (ii) the probability of civil wars decreases with U.S. presidential approval rates.

Analyzing complexity in foreign language monologic oral production in a CLIL context

The study tested three analytic tools applied in SLA research (T-unit, AS-unit and Idea-unit) against FL learner monologic oral data. The objective was to analyse their effectiveness for the assessment of complexity of learners' academic production in English. The data were learners' individual productions gathered during the implementation of a CLIL teaching sequence on Natural Sciences in a Catalan state secondary school. The analysis showed that only AS-unit was easily applicable and highly effective in segmenting the data and taking complexity measures

Stratigraphy and palaeoenvironment of Early Jurassic dinosaur-bearing volcaniclastic deposits from Toundoute (Province of Ouarzazate, Haut-Atlas, Morocco)

The Early Jurassic dinosaur site of Toundoute which yielded the basal sauropod Tazoudasaurus naimi is examined in the light of its stratigraphic, sedimentological and palaeoenvironmental context. A thin succession of Early Liassic marine carbonates (probably Hettangian-Sinemurian in age) is continuously overlain by continental beds with dinosaurs. These latter are assumed to be of Middle to Late Liassic age. The continental deposits include a large part of volcanoclastics, different from the Triassic basalts. The Jurassic volcanoclastics originated from an unknown but obviously close eruption centre. The continental sediments (channels and flood plain) were deposited under tropical climate conditions with alternating humid and dry episodes. The bones occur as isolated or partly articulated elements (parts of carcasses). The two bone-beds are related to typical mud-flows. This type of transport protected the bones from erosion, and favoured their burying and fossilization.

Hydrocarbon biomarkers in the Topla-Mezica zinc-lead deposits, northern Karavanke/Drau Range, Slovenia: Paleoenvironment at the site of ore formation

The Mississippi Valley-type zinc and lead deposits at Topla (250,150 metric tons (t) of ore grading 1.0 wt % Zn and 3.3 wt % Pb) and Mezica (19 million metric tons (Mt) of ore grading 5.3 wt % Pb and 2.7 wt % Zn) occur within the Middle to Upper Triassic platform carbonate rocks of the northern Karavanke/Drau Range geotectonic units of the Eastern Alps, Slovenia. The ore and host rocks of these deposits have been investigated by a combination of inorganic and organic geochemical methods to determine major, trace, and rare earth element (REE) concentrations, hydrocarbon distribution, and stable isotope ratios of carbonates, kerogen, extractable organic matter, and individual hydrocarbons. These data combined with sedimentological evidence provide insight into the paleoenvironmental conditions at the site of ore formation. The carbonate isotope composition, the REE patterns, and the distribution of hydrocarbon biomarkers (normal alkanes and steranes) suggest a marine depositional environment. At Topla, a relatively high concentration of redox sensitive trace elements (V, Mo, U) in the host dolostones and REE patterns parallel to that of the North American shale composite suggest that sediments were deposited in a reducing environment. Anoxic conditions enhanced the preservation of organic matter and resulted in relatively higher total organic carbon contents (up to 0.4 wt %). The isotopic composition of the kerogen (delta C-13(kerogon) = -29.4 to -25.0 parts per thousand, delta N-15(kerogen) = -.13.6 to 6.8 parts per thousand) suggests that marine algae and/or bacteria were the main source of organic carbon with a very minor contribution from detrital continental plants and a varying degree of alteration. Extractable organic matter from Topla ore is generally depleted in C-13 compared to the associated kerogen, which is consistent with an indigenous source of the bitumens. The mineralization correlates with delta N-15(kerogen) values around 0 per mil, C-13 depleted kerogen, C-13 enriched n-heptadecane, and relatively high concentrations of bacteria] hydrocarbon biomarkers, indicating a high cyanobacterial biomass at the site of ore formation. Abundant dissimilatory sulfate-reducing bacteria, feeding on the cyanobacterial remains, led to accumulation of biogenic H2S in the pore water of the sediments. This biogenic H2S was mainly incorporated into sedimentary organic matter and diagenetic pyrite. Higher bacterial activity at the ore site also is indicated by specific concentration ratios of hydrocarbons, which are roughly correlated with total Pb plus Zn contents. This correlation is consistent with mixing of hydrothermal metal-rich, fluids and local bacteriogenic sulfide sulfur. The new geochemical data provide supporting evidence that Topla is a low-temperature Mississippi Valley-type deposit formed in an anoxic supratidal saline to hypersaline environment. A laminated cyanobacterial mat, with abundant sulfate-reducing bacteria was the main site of sulfate reduction.

Teaching foreign languages through translation: considering multiple intelligences

Aquest treball de recerca tracta de la relació existent entre pedagogia, traducció, llengües estrangeres i intel•ligències múltiples. El debat sobre si la traducció és una eina útil a la classe de llengües estrangeres és un tema actual sobre el qual molts investigadors encara indaguen. Estudis recents, però, han demostrat que qualsevol tasca de traducció -en la qual s’hi poden incloure treballs amb les diferents habilitats- és profitosa si la considerem un mitjà, no una finalitat en ella mateixa. Evidentment, l’ús de la traducció dins l’aula és avantatjosa, però també hem de tenir presents certs desavantatges d’aquesta aplicació. Un possible desavantatge podria ser la creença que, al principi, molta gent té referent a l’equivalència, paraula per paraula, d’una llengua vers una altra. Però després de presentar vàries tasques de traducció als estudiants, aquests poden arribar a controlar, fins i tot, les traduccions inconscients i poden assolir un cert nivell de precisió i flexibilitat que val la pena mencionar. Però l’avantatge principal és que s’enfronten a una activitat molt estesa dins la societat actual que combina dues llengües, la llengua materna i la llengua objecte d’estudi, per exemple. De tot això en podem deduir que utilitzar la llengua materna a la classe no s’ha de considerar un crim, com fins ara, sinó una virtut, evidentment si és emprada correctament. En aquest treball de recerca s’hi pot trobar una síntesi tant de les principals teories d’adquisició i aprenentatge de llengües com de les teories de traducció. A la pregunta de si les teories, tant de traducció com de llengües estrangeres, s’haurien d’ensenyar implícita o explícitament, es pot inferir que segons el nivell d’estudis on estiguin els aprenents els convindrà aprendre les teories explícitament o les aprendran, de totes maneres, implícitament. Com que qualsevol grup d’estudiants és heterogeni -és a dir que cada individu té un ritme i un nivell d’aprenentatge concret i sobretot cadascú té diferents estils de percepció (visual, auditiu, gustatiu, olfactiu, de moviment) i per tant diferents intel•ligències-, els professors ho han de tenir en compte a l’hora de planificar qualsevol programa d’actuació vers els alumnes. Per tant, podem concloure que les tasques o projectes de traducció poden ajudar als alumnes a aprendre millor, més eficaçment i a aconseguir un aprenentatge més significatiu.

Long-term stability of retinal function despite retained intraocular metallic foreign body.

BACKGROUND: Persisting metallic intraocular foreign bodies (IOFB) with a ferrous content have been associated with ocular siderosis and retinal degeneration. We describe two patients in whom a metallic IOFB containing iron was left embedded for many years in the choroid and sclera after having penetrated through the vitreous and the retina. HISTORY AND SIGNS: Two male patients, aged 41 and 48 years, presented with a metallic IOFB sustained during a work accident involving metal tools. THERAPY AND OUTCOME: For the first patient it was deemed unwise to operate, as the IOFB was also lodged very deeply in the choroid and sclera in the inferior temporal quadrant. The second patient underwent pars plana vitrectomy, but the IOFB could not be removed surgically as it was too deeply embedded in the sclera and choroid. After a period of 6 years (Case 1) and 4 years (Case 2) of follow-up, visual acuity remained at 1.0 and the IOFB was encased in a fibrotic capsule in both cases. Full-field and multifocal electroretinograms showed an inter-ocular asymmetry at baseline, which remained stable during the follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: Ocular siderosis may not develop in patients with a deeply embedded metallic IOFB. Regular monitoring of both visual function and the electroretinogram is mandatory when the IOFB is left inside the eye.