O terrorismo e o impacto nos Direitos Humanos

Terrorism is at the center of speeches in contemporary societies. Terrorism has caused a great instability in Western society, but if before the Islamic fundamentalist terrorism was just a threat to the West, the Arab world of today suffers this same reality. Human rights conquered in the past, are being constantly violated and forgotten by the countries that make them flag of their ideals as the US, that this fight against terrorism already violated in every way those rights. Human rights are the fundamental pillars to be able to live in society and serve to protect the humanity of the atrocities that have been committed in the past with the great wars. Human rights are the fundamental pillars to be able to live in society and serve to protect the humanity of the atrocities that have been committed in the past with the great wars. Atrocities as torture, which is prohibited by several international documents and yet these inhumane practices continue to be used as a means of combating terrorism. Democracies are fragmented and the great challenge facing this century is finding means to contain the growth of these Islamic radicals, without jeopardizing the universally known human values.

Human identification and analysis of DNA in bones

The introduction of molecular biology techniques, especially of DNA analysis, for human identification is a recent advance in legal medicine. Substantial effort has continuously been made in an attempt to identify cadavers and human remains after wars, socio-political problems and mass disasters. In addition, because of the social dynamics of large cities, there are always cases of missing people, as well as unidentified cadavers and human remains that are found. In the last few years, there has also been an increase in requests for exhumation of human remains in order to determine genetic relationships in civil suits and court action. The authors provide an extensive review of the literature regarding the use of this new methodology for human identification of ancient or recent bones.

Continuidade e mudança. O sistema internacional no post‐Guerra Fria

O fim da Guerra Fria é um caso inédito de mudança pacífica da estrutura internacional, em que os Estados Unidos e a União Soviética transcendem a divisão bipolar para decidir os termos da paz no quadro das instituições que definem o modelo de ordenamento multilateral, consolidando a sua legitimidade. Nesse contexto, ao contrário dos casos precedentes de reconstrução internacional no fim de uma guerra hegemónica, o novo sistema do post-Guerra Fria, caracterizado pela unipolaridade, pela regionalização e pela homogeneização, forma-se num quadro de continuidade institucional. A ordem política do post-Guerra Fria é um sistema misto em que as tensões entre a hierarquia unipolar e a anarquia multipolar, a integração global e a fragmentação regional e a homogeneidade e a heterogeneidade política, ideológica e cultural condicionam as estratégias das potências. As crises internacionais vão pôr à prova a estabilidade da nova ordem e a sua capacidade para garantir mudanças pacíficas. A primeira década do post-Guerra Fria mostra a preponderância dos Estados Unidos e a sua confiança crescente, patente nas Guerras do Golfo Pérsico e dos Balcãs, bem como na crise dos Estreitos da Formosa. A reacção aos atentados do "11 de Setembro" revela uma tentação imperial da potência unipolar, nomeadamente com a invasão do Iraque, que provoca uma crise profunda da comunidade de segurança ocidental. A vulnerabilidade do centro da ordem internacional é confirmada pela crise constitucional europeia e pela crise financeira global. Essas crises não alteram a estrutura de poder mas aceleram a erosão da ordem multilateral e criam um novo quadro de possibilidades para a evolução internacional, que inclui uma escalada dos conflitos num quadro de multipolaridade regional, uma nova polarização entre as potências democráticas conservadoras e uma coligação revisionista autoritária, bem como a restauração de um concerto entre as principais potências internacionais.

Application of wavelets to the study of political history

\The idea that social processes develop in a cyclical manner is somewhat like a `Lorelei'. Researchers are lured to it because of its theoretical promise, only to become entangled in (if not wrecked by) messy problems of empirical inference. The reasoning leading to hypotheses of some kind of cycle is often elegant enough, yet the data from repeated observations rarely display the supposed cyclical pattern. (...) In addition, various `schools' seem to exist which frequently arrive at di erent conclusions on the basis of the same data." (van der Eijk and Weber 1987:271). Much of the empirical controversies around these issues arise because of three distinct problems: the coexistence of cycles of di erent periodicities, the possibility of transient cycles and the existence of cycles without xed periodicity. In some cases, there are no reasons to expect any of these phenomena to be relevant. Seasonality caused by Christmas is one such example (Wen 2002). In such cases, researchers mostly rely on spectral analysis and Auto-Regressive Moving-Average (ARMA) models to estimate the periodicity of cycles.1 However, and this is particularly true in social sciences, sometimes there are good theoretical reasons to expect irregular cycles. In such cases, \the identi cation of periodic movement in something like the vote is a daunting task all by itself. When a pendulum swings with an irregular beat (frequency), and the extent of the swing (amplitude) is not constant, mathematical functions like sine-waves are of no use."(Lebo and Norpoth 2007:73) In the past, this di culty has led to two di erent approaches. On the one hand, some researchers dismissed these methods altogether, relying on informal alternatives that do not meet rigorous standards of statistical inference. Goldstein (1985 and 1988), studying the severity of Great power wars is one such example. On the other hand, there are authors who transfer the assumptions of spectral analysis (and ARMA models) into fundamental assumptions about the nature of social phenomena. This type of argument was produced by Beck (1991) who, in a reply to Goldstein (1988), claimed that only \ xed period models are meaningful models of cyclic phenomena".We argue that wavelet analysis|a mathematical framework developed in the mid-1980s (Grossman and Morlet 1984; Goupillaud et al. 1984) | is a very viable alternative to study cycles in political time-series. It has the advantage of staying close to the frequency domain approach of spectral analysis while addressing its main limitations. Its principal contribution comes from estimating the spectral characteristics of a time-series as a function of time, thus revealing how its di erent periodic components may change over time. The rest of article proceeds as follows. In the section \Time-frequency Analysis", we study in some detail the continuous wavelet transform and compare its time-frequency properties with the more standard tool for that purpose, the windowed Fourier transform. In the section \The British Political Pendulum", we apply wavelet analysis to essentially the same data analyzed by Lebo and Norpoth (2007) and Merrill, Grofman and Brunell (2011) and try to provide a more nuanced answer to the same question discussed by these authors: do British electoral politics exhibit cycles? Finally, in the last section, we present a concise list of future directions.

As crianças-soldado na Serra Leoa e na Libéria: estudo comparado sobre o papel da ONU como provedor de segurança humana

Dissertação de mestrado em Relações Internacionais

Do kemalismo ao neo-otomanismo: o desenvolvimento político e a «Nova Turquia» de Recep Tayyip Erdogan (2003-2014)

Dissertação de mestrado em Ciência Política

Optimism and commitment: An elementary theory of bargaining and war

We propose an elementary theory of wars fought by fully rational contenders. Two parties play a Markov game that combines stages of bargaining with stages where one side has the ability to impose surrender on the other. Under uncertainty and incomplete information, in the unique equilibrium of the game, long confrontations occur: war arises when reality disappoints initial (rational) optimism, and it persist longer when both agents are optimists but reality proves both wrong. Bargaining proposals that are rejected initially might eventually be accepted after several periods of confrontation. We provide an explicit computation of the equilibrium, evaluating the probability of war, and its expected losses as a function of i) the costs of confrontation, ii) the asymmetry of the split imposed under surrender, and iii) the strengths of contenders at attack and defense. Changes in these parameters display non-monotonic effects.

El Giravolt de la Família Robafaves

Treball de recerca realitzat per un alumne d'ensenyament secundari i guardonat amb un Premi CIRIT per fomentar l'esperit cientí­fic del Jovent l'any 2009. 'El Giravolt de la Família Robafaves' és un treball de recerca que engloba tota la història del fet geganter a Mataró des dels seus orígens fins a l'actualitat. Es tracta d'una activitat amb una dimensió cultural, folklòrica i històrica que ha servit per donar respostes a molts dels interrogants promulgats abans de dur a terme aquest projecte. Aquesta família de Gegants ha estat víctima de molts dels entrebancs vigents al llarg de la història així com guerres, revoltes, dictadures, etc. De manera que s'ha pogut comprovar com la política interior i exterior ha afectat a la Família Robafaves d'una manera directa. S'ha fet una investigació a través de les revistes publicades durant la transició democràtica. També cal dir que, s'ha tingut el recolzament d'entrevistes fetes a persones puntals en la història dels Gegants com ara geganters, Caps de Colla, la primera gegantera de la Família Robafaves, etc. Per poder corroborar la base teòrica i documental d'aquest treball s'ha fet un estudi estadístic de la significació social de la Festa Major de Mataró per poder valorar en quina situació es troba actualment. Així doncs, s'ha pogut valorar la influència i importància que tenen els Gegants per Mataró.

Collective victimisation and collective guilt in the former Yugoslavia : the interplay between individual, local and societal levels

The thesis examines the impact of collective war victimization on individuals' readiness to accept or assign collective guilt for past war atrocities. As a complement to previous studies, its aim is to articulate an integrated approach to collective victimization, which distinguishes between individual-, communal-, and societal-level consequences of warfare. Building on a social representation approach, it is guided by the assumption that individuals form beliefs about a conflict through their personal experiences of victimization, communal experiences of warfare that occur in their proximal surrounding, and the mass- mediatised narratives that circulate in a society's public sphere. Four empirical studies test the hypothesis that individuals' beliefs about the conflict depend on the level and type of war experiences to which they have been exposed, that is, on informative and normative micro and macro contexts in which they are embedded. The studies have been conducted in the context of the Yugoslav wars that attended the breakup of Yugoslavia, a series of wars fought between 1991 and 2001 during which numerous war atrocities were perpetrated causing a massive victimisation of population. To examine the content and impact of war experiences at each level of analysis, the empirical studies employed various methodological strategies, from quantitative analyses of a representative public opinion survey, to qualitative analyses of media content and political speeches. Study 1 examines the impact of individual- and communal- level war experiences on individuals' acceptance and assignment of collective guilt. It further examines the impact of the type of communal level victimization: exposure to symmetric (i.e., violence that similarly affects members of different ethnic groups, including adversaries) and asymmetric violence. The main goal of Study 2 is to examine the structural and political circumstances that enhance collective guilt assignment. While the previous studies emphasize the role of past victimisation, Study 2 tests the assumption that the political demobilisation strategy employed by elites facing public discontent in the collective system-threatening circumstances can fuel out-group blame. Studies 3 and 4 have been conducted predominantly in the context of Croatia and examine rhetoric construction of the dominant politicized narrative of war in a public sphere (Study 3) and its maintenance through public delegitimization of alternative (critical) representations (Study 4). Study 4 further examines the likelihood that highly identified group members adhere to publicly delegitimized critical stances on war. - Cette thèse étudie l'impact de la victimisation collective de guerre sur la capacité des individus à accepter ou à attribuer une culpabilité collective liée à des atrocités commises en temps de guerre. En compléments aux recherches existantes, le but de ce travail est de définir une approche intégrative de la victimisation collective, qui distingue les conséquences de la guerre aux niveaux individuel, régional et sociétal. En partant de l'approche des représentations sociales, cette thèse repose sur le postulat que les individus forment des croyances sur un conflit au travers de leurs expériences personnelles de victimisation, de leurs expériences de guerre lorsque celle-ci se déroule près d'eux, ainsi qu'au travers des récits relayés par les mass media. Quatre études testent l'hypothèse que les croyances des individus dépendent des niveaux et des types d'expériences de guerre auxquels ils ont été exposés, c'est-à-dire, des contextes informatifs et normatifs, micro et macro dans lesquels ils sont insérés. Ces études ont été réalisées dans le contexte des guerres qui, entre 1991 et 2001, ont suivi la dissolution de la Yougoslavie et durant lesquelles de nombreuses atrocités de guerre ont été commises, causant une victimisation massive de la population. Afin d'étudier le contenu et l'impact des expériences de guerre sur chaque niveau d'analyse, différentes stratégies méthodologiques ont été utilisées, des analyses quantitatives sur une enquête représentative d'opinion publique aux analyses qualitatives de contenu de médias et de discours politiques. L'étude 1 étudie l'impact des expériences de guerre individuelles et régionales sur l'acceptation et l'attribution de la culpabilité collective par les individus. Elle examine aussi l'impact du type de victimisation régionale : exposition à la violence symétrique (i.e., violence qui touche les membres de différents groupes ethniques, y compris les adversaires) et asymétrique. L'étude 2 se penche sur les circonstances structurelles et politiques qui augmentent l'attribution de culpabilité collective. Alors que les recherches précédentes ont mis l'accent sur le rôle de la victimisation passée, l'étude 2 teste l'hypothèse que la stratégie de démobilisation politique utilisée par les élites pour faire face à l'insatisfaction publique peut encourager l'attribution de la culpabilité à l'exogroupe. Les études 3 et 4 étudient, principalement dans le contexte croate, la construction rhétorique du récit de guerre politisé dominant (étude 3) et son entretien à travers la délégitimation publique des représentations alternatives (critiques] (étude 4). L'étude 4 examine aussi la probabilité qu'ont les membres de groupe fortement identifiés d'adhérer à des points de vue sur la guerre critiques et publiquement délégitimés.

Civil war and foreign influence

We study a symmetric information bargaining model of civil war where a third (foreign) party can affect the probabilities of winning the conflict and the size of the post conflict spoils. We show that the possible alliance with a third party makes peaceful agreements difficult to reach and might lead to new commitment problems that trigger war. Also, we argue that the foreign party is likely to induce persistent informational asymmetries which might explain long lasting civil wars. We explore both political and economic incentives for a third party to intervene. The explicit consideration of political incentives leads to two predictions that allow for identifying the influence of foreign intervention on civil war incidence. Both predictions are confirmed for the case of the U.S. as a potential intervening nation: (i) civil wars around the world are more likely under Republican governments and (ii) the probability of civil wars decreases with U.S. presidential approval rates.

The participation of women in peace processes: the other tables

This paper argues that women’s absence in peace processes cannot be explained by their alleged lack of experience in dialogue and negotiation, but by a serious lack of will to include them in such important initiatives of change. Women have wide ranging experience in dialogue processes including many war and post-war contexts, but there has been a deliberate lack of effort to integrate them in formal peace processes. After introducing the research framework, the paper addresses women’s involvement in peace, and analyzes the role played by women in peace processes, through the cases of Sri Lanka and Northern Ireland. The paper concludes that peace processes are as gendered as wars, and for that reason gender has to be a guiding line for including women in peace processes.

The origin and dispersion of human parasitic diseases in the Old World (Africa, Europe and Madagascar)

The ancestors of present-day man (Homo sapiens sapiens) appeared in East Africa some three and a half million years ago (Australopithecs), and then migrated to Europe, Asia, and later to the Americas, thus beginning the differentiation process. The passage from nomadic to sedentary life took place in the Middle East in around 8000 BC. Wars, spontaneous migrations and forced migrations (slave trade) led to enormous mixtures of populations in Europe and Africa and favoured the spread of numerous parasitic diseases with specific strains according to geographic area. The three human plasmodia (Plasmodium falciparum, P. vivax, and P. malariae) were imported from Africa into the Mediterranean region with the first human migrations, but it was the Neolithic revolution (sedentarisation, irrigation, population increase) which brought about actual foci for malaria. The reservoir for Leishmania infantum and L. donovani - the dog - has been domesticated for thousands of years. Wild rodents as reservoirs of L. major have also long been in contact with man and probably were imported from tropical Africa across the Sahara. L. tropica, by contrast, followed the migrations of man, its only reservoir. L. infantum and L. donovani spread with man and his dogs from West Africa. Likewise, for thousands of years, the dog has played an important role in the spread and the endemic character of hydatidosis through sheep (in Europe and North Africa) and dromadary (in the Sahara and North Africa). Schistosoma haematobium and S. mansoni have existed since prehistoric times in populations living in or passing through the Sahara. These populations then transported them to countries of Northern Africa where the specific, intermediary hosts were already present. Madagascar was inhabited by populations of Indonesian origin who imported lymphatic filariosis across the Indian Ocean (possibly of African origin since the Indonesian sailors had spent time on the African coast before reaching Madagascar). Migrants coming from Africa and Arabia brought with them the two African forms of bilharziosis: S. haematobium and S. mansoni.

Guerre de Troie, guerres des cultures et guerres du Golfe : les usages de "l'Illiade" dans la culture écrite américaine contemporaine

Depuis 1990 et la fin de la Guerre Froide, les Etats-Unis d'Amérique sont devenus la première puissance mondiale, animée par l'idéal de défendre les valeurs occidentale et de répandre la démocratie dans le monde. Or, entre des racines identitaires gréco-romaines empruntées à l'Europe, et les guerres menées au Moyen-Orient contre différents ennemis, la « mission » de l'Amérique suscite critiques et interrogations, et le conflit est autant culturel que militaire. L'Iliade d'Homère au contenu guerrier, érigée par la tradition littéraire en oeuvre fondatrice de l'Occident, offre aux penseurs américains de tous horizons un outil de réflexion propre à éclairer ce présent si inconfortable. A travers l'étude d'un corpus tripartite inédit, ce travail se propose de questionner le rôle d'une oeuvre symbolique de l'Antiquité grecque dans le monde d'aujourd'hui, et débouche sur une réflexion plus large touchant au sens contemporain des études classiques et à la transmission du savoir au sein de la culture populaire. Dans un premier temps, elle examine des ouvrages ou articles à vocation scientifique, mais publiés pour la plupart hors du cadre académique, qui théorisent et expriment les enjeux des guerres des cultures américaines (« culture wars ») divisant conservateurs et libéraux sur la mission véritable d'une éducation libérale. Ces ouvrages se servent également de l'Iliade comme d'un miroir où se reflète les conflits modernes, afin d'atténuer le trouble contemporain en juxtaposant passé et présent. Dans un deuxième temps sont abordés les médias journalistiques et informatiques, à l'aide des résultats obtenus lors de recherches poussées, effectuées dans les archives informatiques des journaux publiés dans les capitales et villes majeures des cinquante Etats américains. De fascinantes comparaisons entre la guerre de Troie et la guerre en Irak y sont notamment construites. Le discours sur l'actualité se développe par le recours à l'Antiquité, et en tire de nombreuses « leçons » destinées au gouvernement américain et à tous les meneurs de guerres. Et dans un troisième temps, deux romans de science-fiction, Ilium (2003) et sa suite Olympos (2005), de Dan Simmons, fournissent un fascinant complément littéraire au reste du corpus. Imprégnés par les culture wars, ils transposent l'Iliade dans un lointain futur et expriment sous une forme nouvelle toutes les interrogations brûlantes qui, aujourd'hui particulièrement, animent une Amérique troublée tant par ses guerres que par la remise en question de son identité occidentale. Par cette réunion de trois domaines dissemblables, ce travail pose aussi de nombreuses questions épistémologiques sur la circulation de l'information, la transformation des savoirs, le flou des frontières entre les genres, la révolution que représente Internet, et la fragmentation progressive de la bulle académique. Il propose également de nombreuses perspectives d'ouverture permettant de poursuivre cette recherche. Car la réception contemporaine de l'Iliade - et de l'Antiquité en général - est un domaine riche et dynamique, qui présente l'avantage - ou l'inconvénient, c'est selon - d'être toujours d'actualité. L'inconfort du présent ne devrait pas empêcher son étude, car les résultats sont extrêmement révélateurs de la véritable relation qu'entretiennent les hommes d'aujourd'hui - et non plus seulement les savants - avec leur passé.

The Sustainable Debts of Philip II: A Reconstruction of Spain's Fiscal Position, 1560-1598

The defaults of Philip II have attained mythical status as the origin of sovereign debt crises. Four times during his reign the king failed to honor his debts and had to renegotiate borrowing contracts. In this paper, we reassess the fiscal position of Habsburg Spain. New archival evidence allows us to derive comprehensive estimates of debt and revenue. These show that primary surpluses were sufficient to make the king's debt sustainable in most scenarios. Spain's debt burden was manageable up to the 1580s, and its fiscal position only deteriorated for good after the defeat of the "Invincible Armada." We also estimate fiscal policy reaction functions, and show that Spain under the Habsburgs was at least as "responsible" as the US in the 20th century or as Britain in the 18th century. Our results suggest that the outcome of uncertain events such as wars may influence on a history of default more than strict adherence to fiscal rules.

Poor, Hungry and Stupid: Numeracy and the Impact of High Food Prices in Industrializing Britain, 1780-1850

This paper argues that low levels of nutrition impaired cognitive development in industrializing England, and that welfare transfers mitigated the adverse effects of high food prices. Age heaping is used as an indicator of numeracy, as derived from census data. For the cohorts from 1780-1850, we analyse the effect of high grain prices during the Napoleonic Wars. We show that numeracy declined markedly for those born during the war years, especially when wheat was dear. Crucially, where the Old Poor Law provided for generous relief payments, the adverse impact of high prices for foodstuffs was mitigated. Finally, we show some tentative evidence that Englishmen born in areas with low income support selected into occupations with lower cognitive requirements.