Hierarchical modeling gave plausible estimates of associations between metabolic syndrome and components of antiretroviral therapy.

OBJECTIVE: Hierarchical modeling has been proposed as a solution to the multiple exposure problem. We estimate associations between metabolic syndrome and different components of antiretroviral therapy using both conventional and hierarchical models. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We use discrete time survival analysis to estimate the association between metabolic syndrome and cumulative exposure to 16 antiretrovirals from four drug classes. We fit a hierarchical model where the drug class provides a prior model of the association between metabolic syndrome and exposure to each antiretroviral. RESULTS: One thousand two hundred and eighteen patients were followed for a median of 27 months, with 242 cases of metabolic syndrome (20%) at a rate of 7.5 cases per 100 patient years. Metabolic syndrome was more likely to develop in patients exposed to stavudine, but was less likely to develop in those exposed to atazanavir. The estimate for exposure to atazanavir increased from hazard ratio of 0.06 per 6 months' use in the conventional model to 0.37 in the hierarchical model (or from 0.57 to 0.81 when using spline-based covariate adjustment). CONCLUSION: These results are consistent with trials that show the disadvantage of stavudine and advantage of atazanavir relative to other drugs in their respective classes. The hierarchical model gave more plausible results than the equivalent conventional model.

Empirical Tests of Asset Pricing Models in Finnish Stock Market

Tämän tutkielman tavoitteena on selvittää mitkä riskitekijät vaikuttavat osakkeiden tuottoihin. Arvopapereina käytetään kuutta portfoliota, jotka ovat jaoteltu markkina-arvon mukaan. Aikaperiodi on vuoden 1987 alusta vuoden 2004 loppuun. Malleina käytetään pääomamarkkinoiden hinnoittelumallia, arbitraasihinnoitteluteoriaa sekä kulutuspohjaista pääomamarkkinoiden hinnoittelumallia. Riskifaktoreina kahteen ensimmäiseen malliin käytetään markkinariskiä sekä makrotaloudellisia riskitekijöitä. Kulutuspohjaiseen pääomamarkkinoiden hinnoinoittelumallissa keskitytään estimoimaan kuluttajien riskitottumuksia sekä diskonttaustekijää, jolla kuluttaja arvostavat tulevaisuuden kulutusta. Tämä työ esittelee momenttiteorian, jolla pystymme estimoimaan lineaarisia sekä epälineaarisia yhtälöitä. Käytämme tätä menetelmää testaamissamme malleissa. Yhteenvetona tuloksista voidaan sanoa, että markkinabeeta onedelleen tärkein riskitekijä, mutta löydämme myös tukea makrotaloudellisille riskitekijöille. Kulutuspohjainen mallimme toimii melko hyvin antaen teoreettisesti hyväksyttäviä arvoja.

Ruin problems under IBNR Dynamics

In this paper, we consider a discrete-time risk process allowing for delay in claim settlement, which introduces a certain type of dependence in the process. From martingale theory, an expression for the ultimate ruin probability is obtained, and Lundberg-type inequalities are derived. The impact of delay in claim settlement is then investigated. To this end, a convex order comparison of the aggregate claim amounts is performed with the corresponding non-delayed risk model, and numerical simulations are carried out with Belgian market data.

Comparing service contract prices of outsourcing partner

The main objective of this Master’s thesis is to find out which one of the two pricing models is the most cost-effective. In this thesis there are two companies that have made an outsourcing contract, in which they have a possibility to choose between two different pricing models. The first model is so called FTE (Full Time Employee) -based. The total cost will be based on the amount of outsourced person-workyears. The second pricing model is the transaction-based, in which the price will be formed according to the amount of transactions. Changing the pricing model from FTE-based to the transaction-based will also incur other costs. It is very important that these other costs are also taken into consideration, so that it is possible to determine the total costs of the pricing models. These other costs are direct costs, indirect costs and performance related costs of outsourcing. Activity based-costing (ABC) was used in order to find out the trues indirect costs of the outsourced processes. Performance related costs are related to quality, so Pareto-analysis was used to analyse the costs. Based on all of that, a framework for service related cost analysis was developed. Quality costs were almost impossible to quantify, so quality had to be taken into consideration in a qualitative way. Furthermore, considering only the indirect and direct costs in a quantitative way and quality costs in a qualitative way, it was possible to find a conditional solution for the research question.

Regime Switching Models for Electricity Time Series that Capture Fat Tailed Distributions

In the power market, electricity prices play an important role at the economic level. The behavior of a price trend usually known as a structural break may change over time in terms of its mean value, its volatility, or it may change for a period of time before reverting back to its original behavior or switching to another style of behavior, and the latter is typically termed a regime shift or regime switch. Our task in this thesis is to develop an electricity price time series model that captures fat tailed distributions which can explain this behavior and analyze it for better understanding. For NordPool data used, the obtained Markov Regime-Switching model operates on two regimes: regular and non-regular. Three criteria have been considered price difference criterion, capacity/flow difference criterion and spikes in Finland criterion. The suitability of GARCH modeling to simulate multi-regime modeling is also studied.

Särmäyksen kustannusperusteinen hinnoittelu

Tässä diplomityössä on tutkittu särmäyksen eri muuttujien vaikutusta kustannusrakenteeseen. Tutkimusmenetelminä on käytetty kirjallisuusselvitystä sekä särmäysaikojen mittausta tuotannossa. Diplomityön tavoitteena oli saada aikaan kustannusperusteinen hinnoittelumalli, jonka avulla särmäyksen hinnoittelu on yksinkertaista ja nopeaa. Särmäysaikoja mitattiin erikokoisille ja -muotoisille kappaleille. Levyn paksuus mitattavilla kappaleilla oli alle 1mm. Muut mitat vaihtelivat alle 200 mm:stä yli 2000 mm:iin. Käytetyt materiaalit olivat sähkö- ja kuumasinkitty teräs. Mitattavia aikoja olivat aika, joka kuluu yhden särmän taivutukseen, aika, joka kuluu yhden kappaleen valmistamiseen sekä ohjelmointiin ja asetuksiin kuluva aika. Särmäysaikoihin vaikuttavat kymmenet eri muuttujat liittyen särmäyspuristimiin, särmättäviin kappaleisiin ja työkaluihin, jne. Osa muuttujista vaikuttaa hyvin vähän kokonaisaikaan, joten kaikkia muuttujia ei lähdetty mittaamaan erikseen. Lisäksi käytössä ollut mittausvälineistö ei ollut riittävän tarkka kaikkien muuttujien mittaamiseen. Aikaansaatu hinnoittelumalli huomioi eri muuttujat ajassa, joka kuluu kappaleiden valmistamiseen, jolloin kaikki muuttujat tulee huomioitua lopullisessa hinnassa.

Diskreettiaikainen liukuvan moodin säätö kiinteäoksidipolttokennon DC-tasonnostossa

Huoli ympäristön tilasta ja fossiilisten polttoaineiden hinnan nousu ovat vauhdittaneet tutkimusta uusien energialähteiden löytämiseksi. Polttokennot ovat yksi lupaavimmista tekniikoista etenkin hajautetun energiantuotannon, varavoimalaitosten sekä liikennevälineiden alueella. Polttokenno on tehonlähteenä kuitenkin hyvin epäideaalinen, ja se asettaa tehoelektroniikalle lukuisia erityisvaatimuksia. Polttokennon kytkeminen sähköverkkoon on tavallisesti toteutettu käyttämällä galvaanisesti erottavaa DC/DC hakkuria sekä vaihtosuuntaajaa sarjassa. Polttokennon kulumisen estämiseksi tehoelektroniikalta vaaditaan tarkkaa polttokennon lähtövirran hallintaa. Perinteisesti virran hallinta on toteutettu säätämällä hakkurin tulovirtaa PI (Proportional and Integral) tai PID (Proportional, Integral and Derivative) -säätimellä. Hakkurin epälineaarisuudesta johtuen tällainen ratkaisu ei välttämättä toimi kaukana linearisointipisteestä. Lisäksi perinteiset säätimet ovat herkkiä mallinnusvirheille. Tässä diplomityössä on esitetty polttokennon jännitettä nostavan hakkurin tilayhtälökeskiarvoistusmenetelmään perustuva malli, sekä malliin perustuva diskreettiaikainen integroiva liukuvan moodin säätö. Esitetty säätö on luonteeltaan epälineaarinen ja se soveltuu epälineaaristen ja heikosti tunnettujen järjestelmien säätämiseen.

Method of numerical correction of errors occasioned by delay of records during the monitoring of environmental variables of interest for animal production

Thermal and air conditions inside animal facilities change during the day due to the influence of the external environment. For statistical and geostatistical analyses to be representative, a large number of points spatially distributed in the facility area must be monitored. This work suggests that the time variation of environmental variables of interest for animal production, monitored within animal facility, can be modeled accurately from discrete-time records. The aim of this study was to develop a numerical method to correct the temporal variations of these environmental variables, transforming the data so that such observations are independent of the time spent during the measurement. The proposed method approached values recorded with time delays to those expected at the exact moment of interest, if the data were measured simultaneously at the moment at all points distributed spatially. The correction model for numerical environmental variables was validated for environmental air temperature parameter, and the values corrected by the method did not differ by Tukey's test at 5% significance of real values recorded by data loggers.

Practical Framework for Monitoring the Performance of Agile IT Projects in an Output-Based Outsourcing Context

Over the past decade, organizations worldwide have begun to widely adopt agile software development practices, which offer greater flexibility to frequently changing business requirements, better cost effectiveness due to minimization of waste, faster time-to-market, and closer collaboration between business and IT. At the same time, IT services are continuing to be increasingly outsourced to third parties providing the organizations with the ability to focus on their core capabilities as well as to take advantage of better demand scalability, access to specialized skills, and cost benefits. An output-based pricing model, where the customers pay directly for the functionality that was delivered rather than the effort spent, is quickly becoming a new trend in IT outsourcing allowing to transfer the risk away from the customer while at the same time offering much better incentives for the supplier to optimize processes and improve efficiency, and consequently producing a true win-win outcome. Despite the widespread adoption of both agile practices and output-based outsourcing, there is little formal research available on how the two can be effectively combined in practice. Moreover, little practical guidance exists on how companies can measure the performance of their agile projects, which are being delivered in an output-based outsourced environment. This research attempted to shed light on this issue by developing a practical project monitoring framework which may be readily applied by organizations to monitor the performance of agile projects in an output-based outsourcing context, thus taking advantage of the combined benefits of such an arrangement Modified from action research approach, this research was divided into two cycles, each consisting of the Identification, Analysis, Verification, and Conclusion phases. During Cycle 1, a list of six Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) was proposed and accepted by the professionals in the studied multinational organization, which formed the core of the proposed framework and answered the first research sub-question of what needs to be measured. In Cycle 2, a more in-depth analysis was provided for each of the suggested Key Performance Indicators including the techniques for capturing, calculating, and evaluating the information provided by each KPI. In the course of Cycle 2, the second research sub-question was answered, clarifying how the data for each KPI needed to be measured, interpreted, and acted upon. Consequently, after two incremental research cycles, the primary research question was answered describing the practical framework that may be used for monitoring the performance of agile IT projects delivered in an output-based outsourcing context. This framework was evaluated by the professionals within the context of the studied organization and received positive feedback across all four evaluation criteria set forth in this research, including the low overhead of data collection, high value of provided information, ease of understandability of the metric dashboard, and high generalizability of the proposed framework.

Education export as a form of knowledge transfer : The potential of Finnish education export in Chile

Knowledge transfer is a complex process. Knowledge transfer in the form of exporting education products from one system of education to another is particularly complicated, because each system has been developed in a particular context to meet the requirements seen as relevant at each time. National innovation systems are often seen to form an essential framework within which the development of a country, its economy and level of knowledge are considered and promoted. These systems are orientated towards the future, and as such they also provide a framework for the knowledge transfer related to the development of education. In the best of circumstances they are able to facilitate and boost this transfer both from the viewpoint of the provider and the recipient. The leading thought and the idea of the study is that education export is a form of knowledge transfer, which is illustrated by the existing models included. The purpose of this study is to explore, analyze and describe the factors and phenomena related to education export, and more specifically, those related to the experiences and potential of Finnish education export to Chile. For better understanding, of the multiplicity of the issue involved, the current status of education export between Finland and Chile and he existing efforts within the Finnish innovation network will be outlined as well as new forms of co-operation between Finland and Chile in educational matters explored. Several countries have started to commercialize their education system in order to establish themselves as emerging education exporters. Moreover, the demand for education reform is accurate in many developing countries. This offers a good match between Finland and Chile to be the example countries of the research. The main research findings suggest that there are several business areas in education export. These include degrees in education, training services and education technologies for example The factors that influence education export can be divided into four groups, including academic, cultural, political and economic aspects. Challenges to overcome include the lack of product or services to be sold, lack of market and cultural knowledge of the buyer country, financing and lack of suitable pricing model. National innovation systems could be seen as enabling entities for successful education export. The extensive networks that national innovation systems aim to form, could operate as a basis for joining the forces in selling knowledge as well as receiving knowledge in a constructive way.

Risk-return trade-off and autocorrelation

A trade-off between return and risk plays a central role in financial economics. The intertemporal capital asset pricing model (ICAPM) proposed by Merton (1973) provides a neoclassical theory for expected returns on risky assets. The model assumes that risk-averse investors (seeking to maximize their expected utility of lifetime consumption) demand compensation for bearing systematic market risk and the risk of unfavorable shifts in the investment opportunity set. Although the ICAPM postulates a positive relation between the conditional expected market return and its conditional variance, the empirical evidence on the sign of the risk-return trade-off is conflicting. In contrast, autocorrelation in stock returns is one of the most consistent and robust findings in empirical finance. While autocorrelation is often interpreted as a violation of market efficiency, it can also reflect factors such as market microstructure or time-varying risk premia. This doctoral thesis investigates a relation between the mixed risk-return trade-off results and autocorrelation in stock returns. The results suggest that, in the case of the US stock market, the relative contribution of the risk-return trade-off and autocorrelation in explaining the aggregate return fluctuates with volatility. This effect is then shown to be even more pronounced in the case of emerging stock markets. During high-volatility periods, expected returns can be described using rational (intertemporal) investors acting to maximize their expected utility. During lowvolatility periods, market-wide persistence in returns increases, leading to a failure of traditional equilibrium-model descriptions for expected returns. Consistent with this finding, traditional models yield conflicting evidence concerning the sign of the risk-return trade-off. The changing relevance of the risk-return trade-off and autocorrelation can be explained by heterogeneous agents or, more generally, by the inadequacy of the neoclassical view on asset pricing with unboundedly rational investors and perfect market efficiency. In the latter case, the empirical results imply that the neoclassical view is valid only under certain market conditions. This offers an economic explanation as to why it has been so difficult to detect a positive tradeoff between the conditional mean and variance of the aggregate stock return. The results highlight the importance, especially in the case of emerging stock markets, of noting both the risk-return trade-off and autocorrelation in applications that require estimates for expected returns.

Novel virtual environment and real-time simulation based methods for improving life-cycle efficiency of non-road mobile machinery

Virtual environments and real-time simulators (VERS) are becoming more and more important tools in research and development (R&D) process of non-road mobile machinery (NRMM). The virtual prototyping techniques enable faster and more cost-efficient development of machines compared to use of real life prototypes. High energy efficiency has become an important topic in the world of NRMM because of environmental and economic demands. The objective of this thesis is to develop VERS based methods for research and development of NRMM. A process using VERS for assessing effects of human operators on the life-cycle efficiency of NRMM was developed. Human in the loop simulations are ran using an underground mining loader to study the developed process. The simulations were ran in the virtual environment of the Laboratory of Intelligent Machines of Lappeenranta University of Technology. A physically adequate real-time simulation model of NRMM was shown to be reliable and cost effective in testing of hardware components by the means of hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) simulations. A control interface connecting integrated electro-hydraulic energy converter (IEHEC) with virtual simulation model of log crane was developed. IEHEC consists of a hydraulic pump-motor and an integrated electrical permanent magnet synchronous motorgenerator. The results show that state of the art real-time NRMM simulators are capable to solve factors related to energy consumption and productivity of the NRMM. A significant variation between the test drivers is found. The results show that VERS can be used for assessing human effects on the life-cycle efficiency of NRMM. HIL simulation responses compared to that achieved with conventional simulation method demonstrate the advances and drawbacks of various possible interfaces between the simulator and hardware part of the system under study. Novel ideas for arranging the interface are successfully tested and compared with the more traditional one. The proposed process for assessing the effects of operators on the life-cycle efficiency will be applied for wider group of operators in the future. Driving styles of the operators can be analysed statistically from sufficient large result data. The statistical analysis can find the most life-cycle efficient driving style for the specific environment and machinery. The proposed control interface for HIL simulation need to be further studied. The robustness and the adaptation of the interface in different situations must be verified. The future work will also include studying the suitability of the IEHEC for different working machines using the proposed HIL simulation method.

The Performance of European Small Cap Equity Funds

The thesis examines the risk-adjusted performance of European small cap equity funds between 2008 and 2013. The performance is measured using several measures including Sharpe ratio, Treynor ratio, Modigliani measure, Jensen alpha, 3-factor alpha and 4-factor alpha. The thesis also addresses the issue of persistence in mutual fund performance. Thirdly, the relationship between the activity of fund managers and fund performance is investigated. The managerial activity is measured using tracking error and R-squared obtained from a 4-factor asset pricing model. The issues are investigated using Spearman rank correlation test, cross-sectional regression analysis and ranked portfolio tests. Monthly return data was provided by Morningstar and consists of 88 mutual funds. Results show that small cap funds earn back a significant amount of their expenses, but on average loose to their benchmark index. The evidence of performance persistence over 12-month time period is weak. Managerial activity is shown to positively contribute to fund performance

Early detection of metabolic and energy disorders by thermal time series stochastic complexity analysis

Maintenance of thermal homeostasis in rats fed a high-fat diet (HFD) is associated with changes in their thermal balance. The thermodynamic relationship between heat dissipation and energy storage is altered by the ingestion of high-energy diet content. Observation of thermal registers of core temperature behavior, in humans and rodents, permits identification of some characteristics of time series, such as autoreference and stationarity that fit adequately to a stochastic analysis. To identify this change, we used, for the first time, a stochastic autoregressive model, the concepts of which match those associated with physiological systems involved and applied in male HFD rats compared with their appropriate standard food intake age-matched male controls (n=7 per group). By analyzing a recorded temperature time series, we were able to identify when thermal homeostasis would be affected by a new diet. The autoregressive time series model (AR model) was used to predict the occurrence of thermal homeostasis, and this model proved to be very effective in distinguishing such a physiological disorder. Thus, we infer from the results of our study that maximum entropy distribution as a means for stochastic characterization of temperature time series registers may be established as an important and early tool to aid in the diagnosis and prevention of metabolic diseases due to their ability to detect small variations in thermal profile.

Public-private partnership investments in dry ports – Russian logistics markets and risks

The investments have always been considered as an essential backbone and so-called ‘locomotive’ for the competitive economies. However, in various countries, the state has been put under tight budget constraints for the investments in capital intensive projects. In response to this situation, the cooperation between public and private sector has grown based on public-private mechanism. The promotion of favorable arrangement for collaboration between public and private sectors for the provision of policies, services, and infrastructure in Russia can help to address the problems of dry ports development that neither municipalities nor the private sector can solve alone. Especially, the stimulation of public-private collaboration is significant under the exposure to externalities that affect the magnitude of the risks during all phases of project realization. In these circumstances, the risk in the projects also is becoming increasingly a part of joint research and risk management practice, which is viewed as a key approach, aiming to take active actions on existing global and specific factors of uncertainties. Meanwhile, a relatively little progress has been made on the inclusion of the resilience aspects into the planning process of a dry ports construction that would instruct the capacity planner, on how to mitigate the occurrence of disruptions that may lead to million dollars of losses due to the deviation of the future cash flows from the expected financial flows on the project. The current experience shows that the existing methodological base is developed fragmentary within separate steps of supply chain risk management (SCRM) processes: risk identification, risk evaluation, risk mitigation, risk monitoring and control phases. The lack of the systematic approach hinders the solution of the problem of risk management processes of dry port implementation. Therefore, management of various risks during the investments phases of dry port projects still presents a considerable challenge from the practical and theoretical points of view. In this regard, the given research became a logical continuation of fundamental research, existing in the financial models and theories (e.g., capital asset pricing model and real option theory), as well as provided a complementation for the portfolio theory. The goal of the current study is in the design of methods and models for the facilitation of dry port implementation through the mechanism of public-private partnership on the national market that implies the necessity to mitigate, first and foremost, the shortage of the investments and consequences of risks. The problem of the research was formulated on the ground of the identified contradictions. They rose as a continuation of the trade-off between the opportunities that the investors can gain from the development of terminal business in Russia (i.e. dry port implementation) and risks. As a rule, the higher the investment risk, the greater should be their expected return. However, investors have a different tolerance for the risks. That is why it would be advisable to find an optimum investment. In the given study, the optimum relates to the search for the efficient portfolio, which can provide satisfaction to the investor, depending on its degree of risk aversion. There are many theories and methods in finance, concerning investment choices. Nevertheless, the appropriateness and effectiveness of particular methods should be considered with the allowance of the specifics of the investment projects. For example, the investments in dry ports imply not only the lump sum of financial inflows, but also the long-term payback periods. As a result, capital intensity and longevity of their construction determine the necessity from investors to ensure the return on investment (profitability), along with the rapid return on investment (liquidity), without precluding the fact that the stochastic nature of the project environment is hardly described by the formula-based approach. The current theoretical base for the economic appraisals of the dry port projects more often perceives net present value (NPV) as a technique superior to other decision-making criteria. For example, the portfolio theory, which considers different risk preference of an investor and structures of utility, defines net present value as a better criterion of project appraisal than discounted payback period (DPP). Meanwhile, in business practice, the DPP is more popular. Knowing that the NPV is based on the assumptions of certainty of project life, it cannot be an accurate appraisal approach alone to determine whether or not the project should be accepted for the approval in the environment that is not without of uncertainties. In order to reflect the period or the project’s useful life that is exposed to risks due to changes in political, operational, and financial factors, the second capital budgeting criterion – discounted payback period is profoundly important, particularly for the Russian environment. Those statements represent contradictions that exist in the theory and practice of the applied science. Therefore, it would be desirable to relax the assumptions of portfolio theory and regard DPP as not fewer relevant appraisal approach for the assessment of the investment and risk measure. At the same time, the rationality of the use of both project performance criteria depends on the methods and models, with the help of which these appraisal approaches are calculated in feasibility studies. The deterministic methods cannot ensure the required precision of the results, while the stochastic models guarantee the sufficient level of the accuracy and reliability of the obtained results, providing that the risks are properly identified, evaluated, and mitigated. Otherwise, the project performance indicators may not be confirmed during the phase of project realization. For instance, the economic and political instability can result in the undoing of hard-earned gains, leading to the need for the attraction of the additional finances for the project. The sources of the alternative investments, as well as supportive mitigation strategies, can be studied during the initial phases of project development. During this period, the effectiveness of the investments undertakings can also be improved by the inclusion of the various investors, e.g. Russian Railways’ enterprises and other private companies in the dry port projects. However, the evaluation of the effectiveness of the participation of different investors in the project lack the methods and models that would permit doing the particular feasibility study, foreseeing the quantitative characteristics of risks and their mitigation strategies, which can meet the tolerance of the investors to the risks. For this reason, the research proposes a combination of Monte Carlo method, discounted cash flow technique, the theory of real options, and portfolio theory via a system dynamics simulation approach. The use of this methodology allows for comprehensive risk management process of dry port development to cover all aspects of risk identification, risk evaluation, risk mitigation, risk monitoring, and control phases. A designed system dynamics model can be recommended for the decision-makers on the dry port projects that are financed via a public-private partnership. It permits investors to make a decision appraisal based on random variables of net present value and discounted payback period, depending on different risks factors, e.g. revenue risks, land acquisition risks, traffic volume risks, construction hazards, and political risks. In this case, the statistical mean is used for the explication of the expected value of the DPP and NPV; the standard deviation is proposed as a characteristic of risks, while the elasticity coefficient is applied for rating of risks. Additionally, the risk of failure of project investments and guaranteed recoupment of capital investment can be considered with the help of the model. On the whole, the application of these modern methods of simulation creates preconditions for the controlling of the process of dry port development, i.e. making managerial changes and identifying the most stable parameters that contribute to the optimal alternative scenarios of the project realization in the uncertain environment. System dynamics model allows analyzing the interactions in the most complex mechanism of risk management process of the dry ports development and making proposals for the improvement of the effectiveness of the investments via an estimation of different risk management strategies. For the comparison and ranking of these alternatives in their order of preference to the investor, the proposed indicators of the efficiency of the investments, concerning the NPV, DPP, and coefficient of variation, can be used. Thus, rational investors, who averse to taking increased risks unless they are compensated by the commensurate increase in the expected utility of a risky prospect of dry port development, can be guided by the deduced marginal utility of investments. It is computed on the ground of the results from the system dynamics model. In conclusion, the outlined theoretical and practical implications for the management of risks, which are the key characteristics of public-private partnerships, can help analysts and planning managers in budget decision-making, substantially alleviating the effect from various risks and avoiding unnecessary cost overruns in dry port projects.