An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the water sector in the Turks and Caicos Islands

The best description of water resources for Grand Turk was offered by Pérez Monteagudo (2000) who suggested that rain water was insufficient to ensure a regular water supply although water catchment was being practised and water catchment possibilities had been analysed. Limestone islands, mostly flat and low lying, have few possibilities for large scale surface storage, and groundwater lenses exist in very delicate equilibrium with saline seawater, and are highly likely to collapse due to sea level rise, improper extraction, drought, tidal waves or other extreme event. A study on the impact of climate change on water resources in the Turks and Caicos Islands is a challenging task, due to the fact that the territory of the Islands covers different environmental resources and conditions, and accurate data are lacking. The present report is based on collected data wherever possible, including grey data from several sources such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and Cuban meteorological service data sets. Other data were also used, including the author’s own estimates and modelling results. Although challenging, this was perhaps the best approach towards analysing the situation. Furthermore, IPCC A2 and B2 scenarios were used in the present study in an effort to reduce uncertainty. The main conclusion from the scenario approach is that the trend observed in precipitation during the period 1961 - 1990 is decreasing. Similar behaviour was observed in the Caribbean region. This trend is associated with meteorological causes, particularly with the influence of the North Atlantic Anticyclone. The annual decrease in precipitation is estimated to be between 30-40% with uncertain impacts on marine resources. After an assessment of fresh water resources in Turks and Caicos Islands, the next step was to estimate residential water demand based on a high fertility rate scenario for the Islands (one selected from four scenarios and compared to countries having similar characteristics). The selected scenario presents higher projections on consumption growth, enabling better preparation for growing water demand. Water demand by tourists (stopover and excursionists, mainly cruise passengers) was also obtained, based on international daily consumption estimates. Tourism demand forecasts for Turks and Caicos Islands encompass the forty years between 2011 and 2050 and were obtained by means of an Artificial Neural Networks approach. for the A2 and B2 scenarios, resulting in the relation BAU>B2>A2 in terms of tourist arrivals and water demand levels from tourism. Adaptation options and policies were analysed. Resolving the issue of the best technology to be used for Turks and Caicos Islands is not directly related to climate change. Total estimated water storage capacity is about 1, 270, 800 m3/ year with 80% capacity load for three plants. However, almost 11 desalination plants have been detected on Turks and Caicos Islands. Without more data, it is not possible to estimate long term investment to match possible water demand and more complex adaptation options. One climate change adaptation option would be the construction of elevated (30 metres or higher) storm resistant water reservoirs. The unit cost of the storage capacity is the sum of capital costs and operational and maintenance costs. Electricity costs to pump water are optional as water should, and could, be stored for several months. The costs arising for water storage are in the range of US$ 0.22 cents/m3 without electricity costs. Pérez Monteagudo (2000) estimated water prices at around US$ 2.64/m3 in stand points, US$ 7.92 /m3 for government offices, and US$ 13.2 /m3for cistern truck vehicles. These data need to be updated. As Turks and Caicos Islands continues to depend on tourism and Reverse Osmosis (RO) for obtaining fresh water, an unavoidable condition to maintaining and increasing gross domestic product(GDP) and population welfare, dependence on fossil fuels and vulnerability to increasingly volatile prices will constitute an important restriction. In this sense, mitigation supposes a synergy with adaptation. Energy demand and emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) were also estimated using an emissions factor of 2. 6 tCO2/ tonne of oil equivalent (toe). Assuming a population of 33,000 inhabitants, primary energy demand was estimated for Turks and Caicos Islands at 110,000 toe with electricity demand of around 110 GWh. The business as usual (BAU), as well as the mitigation scenarios were estimated. The BAU scenario suggests that energy use should be supported by imported fossil fuels with important improvements in energy efficiency. The mitigation scenario explores the use of photovoltaic and concentrating solar power, and wind energy. As this is a preliminary study, the local potential and locations need to be identified to provide more relevant estimates. Macroeconomic assumptions are the same for both scenarios. By 2050, Turks and Caicos Islands could demand 60 m toe less than for the BAU scenario.

Approximate controllability for the semilinear heat equation in RN involving gradient terms

We prove the approximate controllability of the semilinear heat equation in R^N, when the nonlinear term is globally Lipschitz and depends both on the state u and its spatial gradient Ñu. The approximate controllability is viewed as the limit of a sequence of optimal control problems. In order to avoid the difficulties related to the lack of compactness of the Sobolev embeddings, we work with the similarity variables and use weighted Sobolev spaces.

Power quality, smart meters and additional information from different power terms

This paper shows how the detailed examination of active and nonactive power components may produce new information for modern smart meters. For this purpose, a prototype of electronic power meter has been implemented and applied to the evaluation of the Conservative Power Theory (CPT). Considering five sorts of loads, under four different operating conditions, the experimental results indicate that the CPT is able to provide a good methodology for load characterization, which could possibly benefits consumers and power utilities in several different ways. The results also show that depending on the situation, the analysis of nonactive power terms may be more important than the observation of traditional power quality indices, such as total harmonic distortion, unbalance factors or the fundamental positive sequence power factor.

Construction of R4 terms in N = 2 D = 8 superspace

Using linearized superfields, R4 terms in the Type II superstring effective action compactified on T2 are constructed as integrals in N = 2 D = 8 superspace. The structure of these superspace integrals allows a simple proof of the R4 non-renormalization theorems which were first conjectured by Green and Gutperle. © 1998 Elsevier Science B.V.

Distribution of melanin-concentrating hormone neurons projecting to the medial mammillary nucleus

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Efficiency in Brazil's industrial sectors in terms of energy and sustainable development

This article evaluates the efficiency of Brazil's industrial sectors from 1996 to 2009, taking into account energy consumption and respective contributions to the country's economic and social aspects. This analysis used a mathematical programming method called Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), which enabled, from the SBM model and the window analysis, to evaluate the ability of industries to reduce energy consumption and fossil-fuel CO2 emissions (inputs), as well as to increase the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by sectors, the persons employed and personnel expenses (outputs). The results of this study indicated that the Textile sector is the most efficient industrial sector in Brazil, according to the variables used, followed by these sectors: Foods and Beverages, Chemical, Mining, Paper and Pulp, Nonmetallic and Metallurgical.

Examining the use of terms "Conservation" "Restoration" and "Preservation" between Natural Resource Professionals and Literature Reviews

ABSTRACT This thesis will determine if there is a discrepancy between how literature defines conservation, preservation, and restoration, and how natural resource professionals define these terms. Interviews were conducted with six professionals from six different agencies that deal with natural resources. These agencies consisted of both government and non-government groups. In addition to interviewing these professionals regarding how they define the terms, they were asked where their work fits into the context of these terms. The interviewees’ responses were then compared with the literature to determine inconsistencies with the use of these terms in the literature and real world settings. The literature and the interviewees have agreed on the term conservation. There are some different points of view about preservation, some see it as ‘no management’ and some others see it as keeping things the same or ‘static.’ Restoration was the term where both the literature and professionals thought of moving an ecosystem from one point of succession or community, to another point on a continuum. The only thing in which they disagree on is the final goal of a restoration project. The literature would suggest restoring the ecosystem to a past historic condition, where the interviewees said to restore it to the best of their abilities and to a functioning ecosystem.

The in vitro antioxidant properties of the Al-quercetin/beta CD and Al-catechin/beta CD inclusion compounds, rationalized in terms of their electrochemical behaviour

Inclusion compounds of Al-quercetin and Al-catechin complexes with beta-cyclodextrin (beta CD) were investigated. The complex and the inclusion compound of quercetin are more effective DPPHaEuro cent scavengers than the corresponding catechin compounds and the inclusion does not compromise their scavenging abilities, with only a slight decrease in the EC50 values. This is in accordance with the electrochemical data, which revealed that the inclusion compounds have lower diffusion coefficients in aqueous solution than the non-included compounds. For the quercetin compounds, some spectroscopic properties were also addressed by means of UV-visible and NMR measurements in aqueous media.

Exponential stability for a plate equation with p-Laplacian and memory terms

This paper is concerned with the energy decay for a class of plate equations with memory and lower order perturbation of p-Laplacian type, utt+?2u-?pu+?0tg(t-s)?u(s)ds-?ut+f(u)=0inOXR+, with simply supported boundary condition, where O is a bounded domain of RN, g?>?0 is a memory kernel that decays exponentially and f(u) is a nonlinear perturbation. This kind of problem without the memory term models elastoplastic flows.

Renal function evaluation in patients with American Cutaneous Leishmaniasis after specific treatment with pentavalent antimonial

Background Renal evaluation studies are rare in American Cutaneous Leishmaniasis (ACL). The aim of this study is to investigate whether specific treatment reverts ACL-associated renal dysfunction. Methods A prospective study was conducted with 37 patients with ACL. Urinary concentrating and acidification ability was assessed before and after treatment with pentavalent antimonial. Results The patients mean age was 35.6 ± 12 years and 19 were male. Before treatment, urinary concentrating defect (U/Posm <2.8) was identified in 27 patients (77%) and urinary acidification defect in 17 patients (46%). No significant glomerular dysfunction was observed before and after specific ACL treatment. There was no reversion of urinary concentrating defects, being observed in 77% of the patients before and in 88% after treatment (p = 0.344). Urinary acidification defect was corrected in 9 patients after treatment, reducing its prevalence from 40% before to only 16% after treament, (p = 0.012). Microalbuminuria higher than 30 mg/g was found in 35% of patients before treatment and in only 8% after treatment. Regarding fractional excretion of sodium, potassium, calcium, phosphorus and magnesium, there was no significant difference between pre and post-treatment period. Conclusion As previously described, urinary concentrating and acidification defects were found in an important number of patients with ACL. Present results demonstrate that only some patients recover urinary acidification capacity, while no one returned to normal urinary concentration capacity.

Induced tooth movement: standardization of terms to describe the effects of forces on the periodontal ligament: compression/Traction instead of Pressure/Tension

There is no reason for Dentistry to use different terms for phenomena defined in Physics, the specific field in which concepts associated with forces are established and adapted. In place of pressure/tension, the compression/traction pair should be used. This study defines each one of these terms and justifies their use. Our contemporary world demands standardized criteria, methods, measures, concepts and terms to ensure that study protocols, results and applications are used in the same way in any country or area of human action.