The role of strategic intelligence in anticipating transnational organised crime: A literary review

Transnational Organised Crime (TOC) has become a focal point for a range of private and public stakeholders. While not a new phenomenon, the rapid expansion of TOC activities and interests, its increasingly complex structures and ability to maximise opportunity by employing new technologies at a rate impossible for law enforcement to match complicates law enforcement’s ability to develop strategies to detect, disrupt, prevent and investigate them. In an age where the role of police has morphed from simplistic response and enforcement activities to one of managing human security risk, it is argued that intelligence can be used to reduce the impact of strategic surprise from evolving criminal threats and environmental change. This review specifically focuses on research that has implications for strategic intelligence and strategy setting in a TOC context. The review findings suggest that current law enforcement intelligence literature focuses narrowly on the management concept of intelligence-led policing in a tactical, operational setting. As such the review identifies central issues surrounding strategic intelligence and highlights key questions that future research agendas must address to improve strategic intelligence outcomes, particularly in the fight against TOC.

Floods and human health : a systematic review

Floods are the most common type of disaster globally, responsible for almost 53,000 deaths in the last decade alone (23:1 low- versus high-income countries). This review assessed recent epidemiological evidence on the impacts of floods on human health. Published articles (2004–2011) on the quantitative relationship between floods and health were systematically reviewed. 35 relevant epidemiological studies were identified. Health outcomes were categorized into short- and long-term and were found to depend on the flood characteristics and people's vulnerability. It was found that long-term health effects are currently not well understood. Mortality rates were found to increase by up to 50% in the first year post-flood. After floods, it was found there is an increased risk of disease outbreaks such as hepatitis E, gastrointestinal disease and leptospirosis, particularly in areas with poor hygiene and displaced populations. Psychological distress in survivors (prevalence 8.6% to 53% two years post-flood) can also exacerbate their physical illness. There is a need for effective policies to reduce and prevent flood-related morbidity and mortality. Such steps are contingent upon the improved understanding of potential health impacts of floods. Global trends in urbanization, burden of disease, malnutrition and maternal and child health must be better reflected in flood preparedness and mitigation programs.

Children physical activity correlates and parent physical activity do not have a strong association with physical activity amongst adolescents

Background: Physical activity is a key modifiable behavior impacting a number of important health outcomes. The path to developing chronic diseases commonly commences with lifestyle patterns developed during childhood and adolescence. This study examined whether parent physical activity and other factors correlated with physical activity amongst children are associated with self-reported physical activity in adolescents. Methods: A total of 115 adolescents (aged 12-14) and their parents completed questionnaire assessments. Self-reported physical activity was measured amongst adolescents and their parents using the International Physical Activity Questionnaire for Adolescents (IPAQ-A), and the International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ) respectively. Adolescents also completed the Children’s Physical Activity Correlates (CPAC), which measured factors that have previously demonstrated association with physical activity amongst children. To examine whether parent physical activity or items from the CPAC were associated with self-reported adolescent physical activity, backward step-wise regression was undertaken. One item was removed at each step in descending order of significance (until two tailed item alpha=0.05 was achieved). Results: A total of 93 (80.9%) adolescents and their parents had complete data sets and were included in the analysis. Independent variables were removed in the order: perceptions of parental role modeling; importance of exercise; perceptions of parental encouragement; peer acceptance; fun of physical exertion; perceived competence; parent physical activity; self-esteem; liking of exercise; and parental influence. The only variable remaining in the model was ‘liking of games and sport’ (p=0.003, adjusted r-squared=0.085). Discussion: These findings indicate that factors associated with self-reported physical activity in adolescents are not necessarily the same as younger children (aged 8-11). While ‘liking of games and sport’ was included in the final model, the r-squared value did not indicate a strong association. Interestingly, parent self-reported physical activity was not included in the final model. It is likely that adolescent physical activity may be influenced by a variety of direct and indirect forms of socialization. These findings do support the view that intrinsically motivated themes such as the liking of games and sport take precedence over outside influences, like those presented by parents, in determining youth physical activity behaviors. These findings do not suggest that parents have no influence on adolescent physical activity patterns, but rather, the influence is likely to be more complex than physical activity behavior modeling perceived by the adolescent. Further research in this field is warranted in order to better understand potential contributors to successful physical activity promotion interventions amongst young adolescents.

Approaches to learning information literacy : a phenomenographic study

This paper reports on an empirical study that explores the ways students approach learning to find and use information. Based on interviews with 15 education students in an Australian university, this study uses phenomenography as its methodological and theoretical basis. The study reveals that students use three main strategies for learning information literacy: 1) learning by doing; 2) learning by trial and error; and 3) learning by interacting with other people. Understanding the different ways that students approach learning information literacy will assist librarians and faculty to design and provide more effective information literacy education.

Introduction and Framework for Understanding

This chapter opens with a description of the empirical realities that shape and have shaped many women's choice to sell sex – realities which have remained constant for some time now. It provides two frameworks for understanding, first, the shifting discourses that currently constitute prostitution, and second, prostitution policies. The chapter also provides a narrative framework in which recent policy changes can be placed.

Engaging undergraduate nursing students in face-to-face tutorials

Chronic nursing shortages have placed increasing pressure on many nursing schools to recruit greater numbers of students with the consequence of larger class sizes. Larger class sizes have the potential to lead to student disengagement. This paper describes a case study that examined the strategies used by a group of nursing lecturers to engage students and to overcome passivity in a Bachelor of Nursing programme. A non-participant observer attended 20 tutorials to observe five academics deliver four tutorials each. Academics were interviewed both individually and as a group following the completion of all tutorial observations. All observations, field notes, interviews and focus groups were coded separately and major themes identified. From this analysis two broad categories emerged: getting students involved; and engagement as a struggle. Academics used a wide variety of techniques to interest and involve students. Additionally, academics desired an equal relationship with students. They believed that both they and the students had some power to influence the dynamics of tutorials and that neither party had ultimate power. The findings of this study serve to re-emphasise past literature which suggests that to engage students, the academics must also engage.

Effects of simulated cataracts on speech intelligibility

Limited research is available on how well visual cues integrate with auditory cues to improve speech intelligibility in persons with visual impairments, such as cataracts. We investigated whether simulated cataracts interfered with participants’ ability to use visual cues to help disambiguate a spoken message in the presence of spoken background noise. We tested 21 young adults with normal visual acuity and hearing sensitivity. Speech intelligibility was tested under three conditions: auditory only with no visual input, auditory-visual with normal viewing, and auditory-visual with simulated cataracts. Central Institute for the Deaf (CID) Everyday Speech Sentences were spoken by a live talker, mimicking a pre-recorded audio track, in the presence of pre-recorded four-person background babble at a signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of -13 dB. The talker was masked to the experimental conditions to control for experimenter bias. Relative to the normal vision condition, speech intelligibility was significantly poorer, [t (20) = 4.17, p < .01, Cohen’s d =1.0], in the simulated cataract condition. These results suggest that cataracts can interfere with speech perception, which may occur through a reduction in visual cues, less effective integration or a combination of the two effects. These novel findings contribute to our understanding of the association between two common sensory problems in adults: reduced contrast sensitivity associated with cataracts and reduced face-to-face communication in noise.

A DRD2 and ANKK1 haplotype is associated with nicotine dependence

To test the importance of the dopamine D2 receptor (DRD2) region in nicotine dependence, 150 smokers and 228 controls were genotyped for the DRD2 C957T, -141delC and ANKK1 TaqIA polymorphisms (rs6277, rs1799732 and rs1800497, respectively). The -141delC SNP did not show any association but both the C957T and TaqIA SNPs showed association at the allele, genotype, haplotype and combined genotype levels. The 957C/TaqI A1 haplotype was more than 3.5 times as likely to be associated with nicotine dependence compared with the 957T/TaqI A1 haplotype (P = 0.003). Analysis of the combined genotypes of both SNPs revealed that individuals who were homozygous for the 957C-allele (CC) and had either one or two copies of the TaqI A1-allele were 3.3 times as likely to have nicotine dependence compared to all other genotype combinations (P = 0.0003) and that these genotypes accounted for approximately 13% of the susceptibility to nicotine addiction in our population. Our findings suggest that the DRD2 C957T polymorphism and the ANKK1 TaqIA polymorphism are key contributors to the genetic susceptibility to nicotine dependence.

The effect of implementing a modified early warning scoring (MEWS) system on the adequacy of vital sign documentation

Introduction and objectives Early recognition of deteriorating patients results in better patient outcomes. Modified early warning scores (MEWS) attempt to identify deteriorating patients early so timely interventions can occur thus reducing serious adverse events. We compared frequencies of vital sign recording 24 h post-ICU discharge and 24 h preceding unplanned ICU admission before and after a new observation chart using MEWS and an associated educational programme was implemented into an Australian Tertiary referral hospital in Brisbane. Design Prospective before-and-after intervention study, using a convenience sample of ICU patients who have been discharged to the hospital wards, and in patients with an unplanned ICU admission, during November 2009 (before implementation; n = 69) and February 2010 (after implementation; n = 70). Main outcome measures Any change in a full set or individual vital sign frequency before-and-after the new MEWS observation chart and associated education programme was implemented. A full set of vital signs included Blood pressure (BP), heart rate (HR), temperature (T°), oxygen saturation (SaO2) respiratory rate (RR) and urine output (UO). Results After the MEWS observation chart implementation, we identified a statistically significant increase (210%) in overall frequency of full vital sign set documentation during the first 24 h post-ICU discharge (95% CI 148, 288%, p value <0.001). Frequency of all individual vital sign recordings increased after the MEWS observation chart was implemented. In particular, T° recordings increased by 26% (95% CI 8, 46%, p value = 0.003). An increased frequency of full vital sign set recordings for unplanned ICU admissions were found (44%, 95% CI 2, 102%, p value = 0.035). The only statistically significant improvement in individual vital sign recordings was urine output, demonstrating a 27% increase (95% CI 3, 57%, p value = 0.029). Conclusions The implementation of a new MEWS observation chart plus a supporting educational programme was associated with statistically significant increases in frequency of combined and individual vital sign set recordings during the first 24 h post-ICU discharge. There were no significant changes to frequency of individual vital sign recordings in unplanned admissions to ICU after the MEWS observation chart was implemented, except for urine output. Overall increases in the frequency of full vital sign sets were seen.

Effect of caffeine on adenosine-induced reversible perfusion defects assessed by automated analysis

Objectives This prospective study investigated the effects of caffeine ingestion on the extent of adenosine-induced perfusion abnormalities during myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI). Methods Thirty patients with inducible perfusion abnormalities on standard (caffeine-abstinent) adenosine MPI underwent repeat testing with supplementary coffee intake. Baseline and test MPIs were assessed for stress percent defect, rest percent defect, and percent defect reversibility. Plasma levels of caffeine and metabolites were assessed on both occasions and correlated with MPI findings. Results Despite significant increases in caffeine [mean difference 3,106 μg/L (95% CI 2,460 to 3,752 μg/L; P < .001)] and metabolite concentrations over a wide range, there was no statistically significant change in stress percent defect and percent defect reversibility between the baseline and test scans. The increase in caffeine concentration between the baseline and the test phases did not affect percent defect reversibility (average change −0.003 for every 100 μg/L increase; 95% CI −0.17 to 0.16; P = .97). Conclusion There was no significant relationship between the extent of adenosine-induced coronary flow heterogeneity and the serum concentration of caffeine or its principal metabolites. Hence, the stringent requirements for prolonged abstinence from caffeine before adenosine MPI—based on limited studies—appear ill-founded.

Tactically-driven nonmonotone travelling waves

Models of cell invasion incorporating directed cell movement up a gradient of an external substance and carrying capacity-limited proliferation give rise to travelling wave solutions. Travelling wave profiles with various shapes, including smooth monotonically decreasing, shock-fronted monotonically decreasing and shock-fronted nonmonotone shapes, have been reported previously in the literature. The existence of tacticallydriven shock-fronted nonmonotone travelling wave solutions is analysed for the first time. We develop a necessary condition for nonmonotone shock-fronted solutions. This condition shows that some of the previously reported shock-fronted nonmonotone solutions are genuine while others are a consequence of numerical error. Our results demonstrate that, for certain conditions, travelling wave solutions can be either smooth and monotone, smooth and nonmonotone or discontinuous and nonmonotone. These different shapes correspond to different invasion speeds. A necessary and sufficient condition for the travelling wave with minimum wave speed to be nonmonotone is presented. Several common forms of the tactic sensitivity function have the potential to satisfy the newly developed condition for nonmonotone shock-fronted solutions developed in this work.

Contraceptive changes after reproductive events among Australian women born in 1973 to 1978: A longitudinal study from 1996 to 2009

Background Women change contraception as they try to conceive, space births, and limit family size. This longitudinal analysis examines contraception changes after reproductive events such as birth, miscarriage or termination among Australian women born from 1973 to 1978 to identify potential opportunities to increase the effectiveness of contraceptive information and service provision. Methods Between 1996 and 2009, 5,631 Australian women randomly sampled from the Australian universal health insurance (Medicare) database completed five self-report postal surveys. Three longitudinal logistic regression models were used to assess the associations between reproductive events (birth only, birth and miscarriage, miscarriage only, termination only, other multiple events, and no new event) and subsequent changes in contraceptive use (start using, stop using, switch method) compared with women who continued to use the same method. Results After women experienced only a birth, or a birth and a miscarriage, they were more likely to start using contraception. Women who experienced miscarriages were more likely to stop using contraception. Women who experienced terminations were more likely to switch methods. There was a significant interaction between reproductive events and time indicating more changes in contraceptive use as women reach their mid-30s. Conclusion Contraceptive use increases after the birth of a child, but decreases after miscarriage indicating the intention for family formation and spacing between children. Switching contraceptive methods after termination suggests these pregnancies were unintended and possibly due to contraceptive failure. Women’s contact with health professionals around the time of reproductive events provides an opportunity to provide contraceptive services.

Inhaled particle counts on bicycle commute routes of low and high proximity to motorised traffic

Frequent exposure to ultrafine particles (UFP) is associated with detrimental effects on cardiopulmonary function and health. UFP dose and therefore the associated health risk are a factor of exposure frequency, duration, and magnitude of (therefore also proximity to) a UFP emission source. Bicycle commuters using on-road routes during peak traffic times are sharing a microenvironment with high levels of motorised traffic, a major UFP emission source. Inhaled particle counts were measured along popular pre-identified bicycle commute route alterations of low (LOW) and high (HIGH) motorised traffic to the same inner-city destination at peak commute traffic times. During commute, real-time particle number concentration (PNC; mostly in the UFP range) and particle diameter (PD), heart and respiratory rate, geographical location, and meteorological variables were measured. To determine inhaled particle counts, ventilation rate was calculated from heart-rate-ventilation associations, produced from periodic exercise testing. Total mean PNC of LOW (compared to HIGH) was reduced (1.56 x e4 ± 0.38 x e4 versus 3.06 x e4 ± 0.53 x e4 ppcc; p = 0.012). Total estimated ventilation rate did not vary significantly between LOW and HIGH (43 ± 5 versus 46 ± 9 L•min; p = 0.136); however, due to total mean PNC, accumulated inhaled particle counts were 48% lower in LOW, compared to HIGH (7.6 x e8 ± 1.5 x e8 versus 14.6 x e8 ± 1.8 x e8; p = 0.003). For bicycle commuting at peak morning commute times, inhaled particle counts and therefore cardiopulmonary health risk may be substantially reduced by decreasing exposure to motorised traffic, which should be considered by both bicycle commuters and urban planners.