Exogenous expectations on endogenous uncertainty: recursive equilibrium and survival

This paper analyses general equilibrium models with finite heterogeneous agents having exogenous expectations on endogenous uncertainty. It is shown that there exists a recursive equilibrium with the state space consisting of the past aggregate portfolio distribution and the current state of the nature and that it implements the sequential equilibrium. We establish conditions under which the recursive equilibrium is continuous. Moreover, we use the continuous recursive relation of the aggregate variables to prove that if the economy has two types of agents, the one who commits persistent mistakes on the expectation rules of the future endogenous variables is driven out of the market by the others with correct anticipations of the variables, that is, the rational expectations agents.

Essays in recursive equilibrium and market selection hypothesis

Este trabalho consiste em estudar modelos incluindo agentes com informação completa e incompleta sobre o ambiente econômico. Prova-se a existência de equilíbrio em que esses dois agentes coexistem e sob, algumas condições, obtêm-se que esse equilíbrio é recursivo e contínuo, ou seja, pode ser implementado por uma função contínua de transição que relaciona as variáveis de equilíbrio entre dois períodos consecutivos. Mostra-se, sob algumas hipóteses, que em equilíbrios recursivos contínuos, os agentes que cometem erros persistentes nas antecipações dos preços de equilíbrio são eliminados do mercado. Finalmente, exibimos diversos exemplos numéricos, no caso de mercados incompletos e informação completa, em que os agentes com expectativas racionais são eliminados do mercado. Usam-se métodos numéricos alternativos que possibilitam computar um equilíbrio em modelos com agentes heterogêneos.

Approximate recursive equilibrium with minimal state space

This paper shows existence of approximate recursive equilibrium with minimal state space in an environment of incomplete markets. We prove that the approximate recursive equilibrium implements an approximate sequential equilibrium which is always close to a Magill and Quinzii equilibrium without short sales for arbitrarily small errors. This implies that the competitive equilibrium can be implemented by using forecast statistics with minimal state space provided that agents will reduce errors in their estimates in the long run. We have also developed an alternative algorithm to compute the approximate recursive equilibrium with incomplete markets and heterogeneous agents through a procedure of iterating functional equations and without using the rst order conditions of optimality.

Rational expectations and the service of public debt: a recursive approach

This paper uses dynamic programming to study the time consistency of optimal macroeconomic policy in economies with recurring public deficits. To this end, a general equilibrium recursive model introduced in Chang (1998) is extended to include govemment bonds and production. The original mode! presents a Sidrauski economy with money and transfers only, implying that the need for govemment fmancing through the inflation tax is minimal. The extended model introduces govemment expenditures and a deficit-financing scheme, analyzing the SargentWallace (1981) problem: recurring deficits may lead the govemment to default on part of its public debt through inflation. The methodology allows for the computation of the set of alI sustainable stabilization plans even when the govemment cannot pre-commit to an optimal inflation path. This is done through value function iterations, which can be done on a computeI. The parameters of the extended model are calibrated with Brazilian data, using as case study three Brazilian stabilization attempts: the Cruzado (1986), Collor (1990) and the Real (1994) plans. The calibration of the parameters of the extended model is straightforward, but its numerical solution proves unfeasible due to a dimensionality problem in the algorithm arising from limitations of available computer technology. However, a numerical solution using the original algorithm and some calibrated parameters is obtained. Results indicate that in the absence of govemment bonds or production only the Real Plan is sustainable in the long run. The numerical solution of the extended algorithm is left for future research.

Stability and Local Toxicity Evaluation of a Liposomal Prilocaine Formulation

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Pharmacological and local toxicity studies of a liposomal formulation for the novel local anaesthetic ropivacaine

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Different criteria of feed formulation for broilers aged 43 to 49 days

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

PLGA nanoparticles containing praziquantel: effect of formulation variables on size distribution

Praziquantel has been shown to be highly effective against all known species of Schistosoma infecting humans. Spherical nanoparticulate drug carriers made of poly(D,L-lactide-co-glycolide) acid with controlled size were designed. Praziquantel, a hydrophobic molecule, was entrapped into the nanoparticles with theoretical loading varying from 10 to 30% (w/w). This investigates the effects of some process variables on the size distribution of nanoparticles prepared by emulsion-solvent evaporation method. The results show that sonication time, PLGA and drug amounts, PVA concentration, ratio between aqueous and organic phases, and the method of solvent evaporation have a significant influence on size distribution of the nanoparticles. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of the performance of a castor-oil based formulation in limiting pesticide residues in strawberry crops

A study was made to evaluate the effect of a castor oil-based detergent on strawberry crops treated with different classes of pesticides, namely deltamethrin, folpet, tebuconazole, abamectin and mancozeb, in a controlled environment. Experimental crops of greenhouse strawberries were cultivated in five different ways with control groups using pesticides and castor oil-based detergent. The results showed that the group 2, which was treated with castor oil-based detergent, presented the lowest amount of pesticide residues and the highest quality of fruit produced.

Notes on Newton-Euler formulation of robotic manipulators

The equations corresponding to Newton-Euler iterative method for the determination of forces and moments acting on the rigid links of a robotic manipulator are given a new treatment using composed vectors for the representation of both kinematical and dynamical quantities. It is shown that Lagrange equations for the motion of a holonomic system are easily found from the composed vectors defined in this note. Application to a simple model of an industrial robot shows that the method developed in these notes is efficient in solving the dynamics of a robotic manipulator. An example is developed, where it is seen that with the application of appropriate control moments applied to each arm of the robot, starting from a given initial position, it is possible to reach equilibrium in a final pre-assigned position.

Analysis of the Coupled Stretching-Bending Problem of Stiffened Plates by a BEM Formulation Based on Reissner's Hypothesis

In this work, the plate bending formulation of the boundary element method - BEM, based on the Reissner's hypothesis, is extended to the analysis of plates reinforced by beams taking into account the membrane effects. The formulation is derived by assuming a zoned body where each sub-region defines a beam or a slab and all of them are represented by a chosen reference surface. Equilibrium and compatibility conditions are automatically imposed by the integral equations, which treat this composed structure as a single body. In order to reduce the number of degrees of freedom, the problem values defined on the interfaces are written in terms of their values on the beam axis. Initially are derived separated equations for the bending and stretching problems, but in the final system of equations the two problems are coupled and can not be treated separately. Finally are presented some numerical examples whose analytical results are known to show the accuracy of the proposed model.

A BEM formulation for analysing the coupled stretching-bending problem of plates reinforced by rectangular beams with columns defined in the domain

In this work, a boundary element formulation to analyse plates reinforced by rectangular beams, with columns defined in the domain is proposed. The model is based on Kirchhoff hypothesis and the beams are not required to be displayed over the plate surface, therefore eccentricity effects are taken into account. The presented boundary element method formulation is derived by applying the reciprocity theorem to zoned plates, where beams are treated as thin sub-regions with larger rigidities. The integral representations derived for this complex structural element consider the bending and stretching effects of both structural elements working together. The standard equilibrium and compatibility conditions along interface are naturally imposed, being the bending tractions eliminated along interfaces. The in-plane tractions and the bending and in-plane displacements are approximated along the beam width, reducing the number of degrees of freedom. The columns are introduced into the formulation by considering domain points where tractions can be prescribed. Some examples are then shown to illustrate the accuracy of the formulation, comparing the obtained results with other numerical solutions.

Electrical load forecasting formulation by a fast neural network

The objective of this work is to develop a methodology for electric load forecasting based on a neural network. Here, backpropagation algorithm is used with an adaptive process that based on fuzzy logic and using a decaying exponential function to avoid instability in the convergence process. This methodology results in fast training, when compared to the conventional formulation of backpropagation algorithm. The results are presented using data from a Brazilian Electric Company, and shows a very good performance for the proposal objective.

Screening of Formulation Variables for the Preparation of Poly(epsilon-caprolactone) Nanocapsules Containing the Local Anesthetic Benzocaine

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)