968 resultados para mortality probability prediction
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To evaluate the correlation between neck circumference and insulin resistance and components of metabolic syndrome in adolescents with different adiposity levels and pubertal stages, as well as to determine the usefulness of neck circumference to predict insulin resistance in adolescents. Cross-sectional study with 388 adolescents of both genders from ten to 19 years old. The adolescents underwent anthropometric and body composition assessment, including neck and waist circumferences, and biochemical evaluation. The pubertal stage was obtained by self-assessment, and the blood pressure, by auscultation. Insulin resistance was evaluated by the Homeostasis Model Assessment-Insulin Resistance. The correlation between two variables was evaluated by partial correlation coefficient adjusted for the percentage of body fat and pubertal stage. The performance of neck circumference to identify insulin resistance was tested by Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve. After the adjustment for percentage body fat and pubertal stage, neck circumference correlated with waist circumference, blood pressure, triglycerides and markers of insulin resistance in both genders. The results showed that the neck circumference is a useful tool for the detection of insulin resistance and changes in the indicators of metabolic syndrome in adolescents. The easiness of application and low cost of this measure may allow its use in Public Health services.
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To evaluate intervention practices associated with hypothermia at both 5 minutes after birth and at neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) admission and to determine whether hypothermia at NICU admission is associated with early neonatal death in preterm infants. This prospective cohort included 1764 inborn neonates of 22-33 weeks without malformations admitted to 9 university NICUs from August 2010 through April 2012. All centers followed neonatal International Liaison Committee on Resuscitation recommendations for the stabilization and resuscitation in the delivery room (DR). Variables associated with hypothermia (axillary temperature <36.0 °C) 5 minutes after birth and at NICU admission, as well as those associated with early death, were analyzed by logistic regression. Hypothermia 5 minutes after birth and at NICU admission was noted in 44% and 51%, respectively, with 6% of early neonatal deaths. Adjusted for confounding variables, practices associated with hypothermia at 5 minutes after birth were DR temperature <25 °C (OR 2.13, 95% CI 1.67-2.28), maternal temperature at delivery <36.0 °C (OR 1.93, 95% CI 1.49-2.51), and use of plastic bag/wrap (OR 0.53, 95% CI 0.40-0.70). The variables associated with hypothermia at NICU admission were DR temperature <25 °C (OR 1.44, 95% CI 1.10-1.88), respiratory support with cold air in the DR (OR 1.40, 95% CI 1.03-1.88) and during transport to NICU (OR 1.51, 95% CI 1.08-2.13), and cap use (OR 0.55, 95% CI 0.39-0.78). Hypothermia at NICU admission increased the chance of early neonatal death by 1.64-fold (95% CI 1.03-2.61). Simple interventions, such as maintaining DR temperature >25 °C, reducing maternal hypothermia prior to delivery, providing plastic bags/wraps and caps for the newly born infants, and using warm resuscitation gases, may decrease hypothermia at NICU admission and improve early neonatal survival.
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This paper examines the spatial pattern of ill-defined causes of death across Brazilian regions, and its relationship with the evolution of completeness of the deaths registry and changes in the mortality age profile. We make use of the Brazilian Health Informatics Department mortality database and population censuses from 1980 to 2010. We applied demographic methods to evaluate the quality of mortality data for 137 small areas and correct for under-registration of death counts when necessary. The second part of the analysis uses linear regression models to investigate the relationship between, on the one hand, changes in death counts coverage and age profile of mortality, and on the other, changes in the reporting of ill-defined causes of death. The completeness of death counts coverage increases from about 80% in 1980-1991 to over 95% in 2000-2010 at the same time the percentage of ill-defined causes of deaths reduced about 53% in the country. The analysis suggests that the government's efforts to improve data quality are proving successful, and they will allow for a better understanding of the dynamics of health and the mortality transition.
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BACKGROUND: The model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) was developed to predict short-term mortality in patients with cirrhosis. There are few reports studying the correlation between MELD and long-term posttransplantation survival. AIM: To assess the value of pretransplant MELD in the prediction of posttransplant survival. METHODS: The adult patients (age >18 years) who underwent liver transplantation were examined in a retrospective longitudinal cohort of patients, through the prospective data base. We excluded acute liver failure, retransplantation and reduced or split-livers. The liver donors were evaluated according to: age, sex, weight, creatinine, bilirubin, sodium, aspartate aminotransferase, personal antecedents, brain death cause, steatosis, expanded criteria donor number and index donor risk. The recipients' data were: sex, age, weight, chronic hepatic disease, Child-Turcotte-Pugh points, pretransplant and initial MELD score, pretransplant creatinine clearance, sodium, cold and warm ischemia times, hospital length of stay, blood requirements, and alanine aminotransferase (ALT >1,000 UI/L = liver dysfunction). The Kaplan-Meier method with the log-rank test was used for the univariable analyses of posttransplant patient survival. For the multivariable analyses the Cox proportional hazard regression method with the stepwise procedure was used with stratifying sodium and MELD as variables. ROC curve was used to define area under the curve for MELD and Child-Turcotte-Pugh. RESULTS: A total of 232 patients with 10 years follow up were available. The MELD cutoff was 20 and Child-Turcotte-Pugh cutoff was 11.5. For MELD score > 20, the risk factors for death were: red cell requirements, liver dysfunction and donor's sodium. For the patients with hyponatremia the risk factors were: negative delta-MELD score, red cell requirements, liver dysfunction and donor's sodium. The regression univariated analyses came up with the following risk factors for death: score MELD > 25, blood requirements, recipient creatinine clearance pretransplant and age donor >50. After stepwise analyses, only red cell requirement was predictive. Patients with MELD score < 25 had a 68.86%, 50,44% and 41,50% chance for 1, 5 and 10-year survival and > 25 were 39.13%, 29.81% and 22.36% respectively. Patients without hyponatremia were 65.16%, 50.28% and 41,98% and with hyponatremia 44.44%, 34.28% and 28.57% respectively. Patients with IDR > 1.7 showed 53.7%, 27.71% and 13.85% and index donor risk <1.7 was 63.62%, 51.4% and 44.08%, respectively. Age donor > 50 years showed 38.4%, 26.21% and 13.1% and age donor <50 years showed 65.58%, 26.21% and 13.1%. Association with delta-MELD score did not show any significant difference. Expanded criteria donors were associated with primary non-function and severe liver dysfunction. Predictive factors for death were blood requirements, hyponatremia, liver dysfunction and donor's sodium. CONCLUSION: In conclusion MELD over 25, recipient's hyponatremia, blood requirements, donor's sodium were associated with poor survival.
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Este estudo teve como objetivo avaliar o valor prognóstico de marcadores de proliferação celular em casos de mastocitomas cutâneos caninos. Vinte e três casos foram analisados quanto à expressão imuno-histoquímica de Ki67 e do Antígeno Nuclear de Proliferação Celular (PCNA), sendo subsequentemente acompanhados clinicamente. Observou-se que a expressão de Ki67 mantém relação negativa com a tradicional graduação histopatológica (p= 0,0418; p<0,05 entre os graus I e III), sendo um indicador confiável para o tempo de sobrevida pós-cirúrgica (p=0,0089). A imunoexpressão de PCNA, apesar de estar correlacionada à marcação por Ki67, não apresentou valores estatisticamente significantes na predição da mortalidade em função da doença e do tempo de sobrevida pós-cirúrgico. Os resultados obtidos confirmam que informações sobre a atividade proliferativa tumoral pela detecção imuno-histoquímica de Ki67 podem incrementar a classificação de mastocitomas cutâneos caninos quanto à malignidade.
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A series of nine new [3-(disubstituted-phosphate)-4,4,4-trifluoro-butyl]-carbamic acid ethyl esters (phosphate-carbamate compounds) was obtained through the reaction of (4,4,4-trifluoro-3-hydroxybut-1-yl)-carbamic acid ethyl esters with phosphorus oxychloride followed by the addition of alcohols. The products were characterized by ¹H, 13C, 31P, and 19F NMR spectroscopy, GC-MS, and elemental analysis. All the synthesized compounds were screened for acetylcholinesterase (AChE) inhibitory activity using the Ellman method. All compounds containing phosphate and carbamate pharmacophores in their structures showed enzyme inhibition, being the compound bearing the diethoxy phosphate group (2b) the most active compound. Molecular modeling studies were performed to investigate the detailed interactions between AChE active site and small-molecule inhibitor candidates, providing valuable structural insights into AChE inhibition.
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PURPOSE: The ability to predict and understand which biomechanical properties of the cornea are responsible for the stability or progression of keratoconus may be an important clinical and surgical tool for the eye-care professional. We have developed a finite element model of the cornea, that tries to predicts keratoconus-like behavior and its evolution based on material properties of the corneal tissue. METHODS: Corneal material properties were modeled using bibliographic data and corneal topography was based on literature values from a schematic eye model. Commercial software was used to simulate mechanical and surface properties when the cornea was subject to different local parameters, such as elasticity. RESULTS: The simulation has shown that, depending on the corneal initial surface shape, changes in local material properties and also different intraocular pressures values induce a localized protuberance and increase in curvature when compared to the remaining portion of the cornea. CONCLUSIONS: This technique provides a quantitative and accurate approach to the problem of understanding the biomechanical nature of keratoconus. The implemented model has shown that changes in local material properties of the cornea and intraocular pressure are intrinsically related to keratoconus pathology and its shape/curvature.
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It has been demonstrated that there is an association between serum lipoproteins and survival rate in patients with ischemic cardiomyopathy, as well as in patients with non-ischemic causes of heart failure. We tested the hypothesis of an association between serum lipoprotein levels and prognosis in a cohort of outpatients with heart failure, including Chagas' heart disease. The lipid profile of 833 outpatients with heart failure in functional classes III and IV of the New York Heart Association, with a mean age of 46.9 ± 10.6 years, 655 (78.6%) men and 178 (21.4%) women, was studied from April 1991 to June 2003. The survival rate was estimated by the Kaplan-Meyer's method and the Cox proportional hazards models. Etiology of heart failure was ischemic cardiomyopathy in 171 (21%) patients, Chagas' heart disease in 144 (17%), hypertensive cardiomyopathy in 136 (16%), and other etiologies in 83 (10%). In 299 (36%) patients, heart failure was ascribed to idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy. Variables significantly associated with mortality were age (hazard ratio, HR = 1.02; 95%CI = 1.01-1.03; P = 0.0074), male gender (HR = 1.77; 95%CI = 1.2-2.62; P = 0.004), idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy (HR = 1.81; 95%CI = 1.16-2.82; P = 0.0085), serum triglycerides (HR = 0.97; 95%CI = 0.96-0.98; P < 0.0001), and HDL cholesterol (HR = 0.99; 95%CI = 0.99-1.0; P = 0.0280). Therefore, higher serum HDL cholesterol and higher serum triglycerides were associated with lower mortality in this cohort of outpatients with heart failure.
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The growth parameters and the mortality rates of the Scomber japonicus peruanus (Chub mackerel) were studied based on monthly data of frequency of fork length classes obtained from commercial landings off the Peruvian coast from 1996 to 1998. The asymptotic body length and growth rate values obtained by the ELEFAN I (Electronic Length Frequency Analysis) ranged from 40.20 cm to 42.20 cm and from 0.38 to 0.39, respectively. The oscillation amplitude was 0.60; the Winter point values varied from 0.50 to 0.60 and the performance index from 2.79 to 2.84. The total mortality rate of the Chub mackerel obtained by the linearized catch curve oscillated between 1.68 and 3.35. The rate of fishing mortality varied from 1.16 to 2.78 and the exploitation rate from 0.68 to 0.84. The annual rate of natural mortality estimated by the Pauly's method ranged from 0.52 to 0.53. The results obtained allow us to conclude that the longevity of the Chub mackerel was slightly over seven years.
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Deaths caused by systemic mycoses such as paracoccidioidomycosis, cryptococcosis, histoplasmosis, candidiasis, aspergillosis, coccidioidomycosis and zygomycosis amounted to 3,583 between 1996-2006 in Brazil. When analysed as the underlying cause of death, paracoccidioidomycosis represented the most important cause of deaths among systemic mycoses (~ 51.2%). When considering AIDS as the underlying cause of death and the systemic mycoses as associated conditions, cryptococcosis (50.9%) appeared at the top of the list, followed by candidiasis (30.2%), histoplasmosis (10.1%) and others. This mortality analysis is useful in understanding the real situation of systemic mycoses in Brazil, since there is no mandatory notification of patients diagnosed with systemic mycoses in the official health system.
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The study objective was to examine differentials in time trends and predictors of deaths assigned to symptoms, signs and ill-defined conditions in comparison with other ill-defined conditions (ill-defined cardiovascular diseases, cancer and injury) in a population-based cohort study. Of 1,606 baseline participants aged 60 years and over, 524 died during 9-year follow-up and were included in this study. Deaths coded to "symptoms" declined by 77% in the period from 1997-1999 to 2003-2005. Deaths coded to other ill-defined conditions remained unchanged. The calendar period 2003-2005 (RR = 0.25; 95%CI: 0.09-0.70) and in-hospital deaths (RR = 0.16; 95%CI: 0.08-0.34) were independently associated with "symptoms", but not with other ill-defined conditions. Baseline socio-demographic characteristics and chronic diseases were not predictors of these outcomes. International and national agencies have focused on the reduction of deaths assigned to "symptoms" to improve the registration of vital statistics, while other ill-defined conditions have received little attention. Our data provide evidence supporting the need to redress this situation.
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O objetivo foi analisar o perfil dos recém-nascidos, mães e mortalidade neonatal precoce, segundo complexidade do hospital e vínculo com o Sistema Único de Saúde (SUS), na Região Metropolitana de São Paulo, Brasil. Estudo baseado em dados de nascidos vivos, óbitos e cadastro de hospitais. Para obter a tipologia de complexidade e o perfil da clientela, empregaram-se análise fatorial e de clusters. O SUS atende mais recém-nascidos de risco e mães com baixa escolaridade, pré-natal insuficiente e adolescentes. A probabilidade de morte neonatal precoce foi 5,6‰ nascidos vivos (65% maior no SUS), sem diferenças por nível de complexidade do hospital, exceto nos de altíssima (SUS) e média (não-SUS) complexidade. O diferencial de mortalidade neonatal precoce entre as duas redes é menor no grupo de recém-nascidos < 1.500g (22%), entretanto, a taxa é 131% mais elevada no SUS para os recém-nascidos > 2.500g. Há uma concentração de nascimentos de alto risco na rede SUS, contudo a diferença de mortalidade neonatal precoce entre a rede SUS e não-SUS é menor nesse grupo de recém-nascidos. Novos estudos são necessários para compreender melhor a elevada mortalidade de recém-nascidos > 2.500g no SUS.
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This systematic review addressed cohort studies on obesity in childhood and adolescence and adult mortality, published from January 1990 to March 2007. We searched the PubMed database with the following uniterms: obesity, mortality, child, adolescent; obesity and mortality; overweight and mortality. References were also analyzed. The age limit was 2 to 18 years. Quality of the articles was assessed, and eight were identified and reviewed. All used weight and stature for determination of obesity, and seven used body mass index (BMI). The quality score varied from 9 to 17. Evidence of association between obesity in childhood and adolescence and adult mortality should be viewed with caution. Use of BMI and potential confounders were discussed. Further research is needed to analyze the relationship between childhood and adolescent obesity and adult mortality.
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CONTEXTO E OBJETIVO: A mortalidade infantil expressa uma conjunção de fatores relacionados às condições de vida, trabalho e acesso aos serviços de saúde, e a identificação desses fatores pode contribuir para definição de intervenções em saúde. O objetivo deste trabalho foi analisar a expressão da vulnerabilidade e conseqüentes diferenças de acesso aos serviços de saúde e na ocorrência de óbitos em menores de um ano no município do Embu. TIPO DE ESTUDO E LOCAL: Estudo descritivo, no município de Embu. MÉTODOS: Foram coletados dados secundários (declarações de óbitos) e primários (entrevistas a famílias de crianças residentes do município do Embu, falecidas nos anos de 1996 e 1997, antes de completarem um ano). Variáveis estudadas foram relacionadas às condições de vida, renda e trabalho, à assistência pré-natal, ao parto e à atenção à saúde da criança, as quais foram comparadas com resultados obtidos em estudo realizado no ano de 1996. RESULTADOS: Verificaram-se diferenças estatisticamente significantes quanto a renda, trabalho sem carteira assinada e acesso a plano privado de saúde entre famílias de crianças que foram ao óbito. Verificaram-se, também, diferenças quanto ao acesso e à qualidade da assistência pré-natal, à freqüência de baixo peso ao nascer e a intercorrências neonatais. CONCLUSÕES: A situação de emprego/desemprego foi decisiva na determinação da estabilidade familiar, conferindo maior vulnerabilidade para ocorrência de óbitos infantis, somada às condições de acesso e à qualidade dos serviços de saúde